Virginia Politics

Washington Post Metro political reporter Robert Barnes was online Monday, Oct. 31, at 2:30 p.m. ET to discuss the latest news in Virginia's gubernatorial race and the state's red-blue divide.

From The Post:

Campaign Journal

Full Coverage: Virginia Elections

The transcript follows.

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Robert Barnes: Welcome everyone and thanks for your interest. The Virginia governor's race looks as if it will go down the wire. I'll answer your questions as best I can.

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Richmond, Va.: Why is it that the Washington Post Poll repeatedly underestimates the GOP vote in your gubernatorial vote in Virginia? I saw an analysis on this on http://www.vaconservative.com/. I think it would be interesting for you to compare you past polls with the actual results and figure out why they're so different from the results on election day.

Robert Barnes: I think it's important to remember that the Post poll, like others, doesn't predict election day but only says what voters tell us now, or Oct. 23-36 in this case. Another factor could be that Republicans say they are better than Democrats at turning out their voters. As to undersampling, the Post poll showed that 37 percent of respondents said they were Republican, 33 percent Democrat and 26 percent independent, the exact same figures as in the September poll that showed Kilgore with a lead. As you know, Virginia voters don't register by party, but that 4-pt margin between the GOP and Democrats is what showed up in 2004 exit polls, when President Bush won the state handily.

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Annapolis, Md.: How much is faith playing a role in Kaine and Kilgore's campaigns? Is Kaine's Catholicism a genuine risk for him in the election?

Robert Barnes: I don't know if it is a risk or not. Virginia has never had a Catholic governor, but Kaine certainly talks about his religion freely (although at first, I noticed he described himself as a "Christian missionary" rather than Catholic). Kilgore's only public appearance yesterday was at a church. I think voters like to know as much as they can about a candidate.

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Arlington, Va.: Your paper really has the hatchets out for Gilmore, doesn't it? The Kilgore campaign's invocation of Stanley Rosenbluth's dead son is no different from the antiwar movement's invocation of Cindy Sheehan's dead son, but somehow The Post derides Kilgore for "negative campaigning" while respectfully reporting on Sheehan for exercising "moral authority."

When Kilgore articulates his position on the death penalty, on which he is in agreement with 75 percent of Virginians, he is described as "exploiting a wedge issue." Somehow, a Democratic candidate's views, no matter how sharply at odds with the electorate, never get tagged with the derogatory "wedge" label.

Finally, it's noteworthy that last week, on the same day, Kilgore's troubles relating to the Bush appearance in Va. were displayed on page A1 of the Post, while the allegations of dishonesty against Kaine, so prominent that The Post could not completely ignore them, were relegated to the Metro section. Similarly, polls on the Va. race only get front-page treatment (see Sunday's Post) when they favor Kaine; Kilgore never got front-page ink during the long months when the polls ran in his favor. And of course the front-page article on Kaine's lead doesn't explain that his lead is actually within the poll's margin of error.

The Virginia gubernatorial race looks to be coming down to the wire. Where do you think it would be, though, if the Post's news sections were not working so hard on Kaine's behalf?

Robert Barnes: I think instead of Gilmore you mean Kilgore, but your sentiment is certainly clear. It won't surprise you to find I disagree with your opinions. You are wrong on two factual counts. One, the Post poll taken in September that showed Kilgore ahead appeared on A1. And in Sunday's story, the second paragraph read: "Kaine leads Republican Jerry W. Kilgore among the most likely voters by three percentage points, 47 to 44, according to the poll, which has a three percentage point margin of error."

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Dunn Loring, Va.: Judging from The Post and other polls, Kaine seems to have the momentum right now, going to the lead after being behind for most of the campaign. In your opinion is this because of mistakes by Kilgore or some sort of plan that Kaine has put forward? Also, how much -- if any -- are the White House problems a drag on Kilgore?

Robert Barnes: The question of how the national political environment affects Virginia is an interesting one, and a little hard to gauge. I think most politicians and observers would tell you that national politics more important to those in Northern Virginia, and that is where Kaine needs a big turnout. I think most people thought this would be a close race.

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College Park, Md.: What effect does Virginia's one-term limit do to change the Governor's race? Does it attract different types of candidates? Does it cause them to campaign differently?

Robert Barnes: Well, I certainly think you'd see Mark Warner running for reelection if he could. He seems to love the job. I think the one-term limit probably affects governing more than campaigning, because whoever is elected has such a short time to establish priorities.

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Alexandria, Va. (Atty Gen'l Election): This has to be the sleeper race of the year. I can't really see that much in the way of substantive difference between the candidates, but their backgrounds differ enormously.

It seems that the Rep candidate (McDonnell - is that his name?) was indeed a prosecutor, but only on the local level, and only for less than 2 years. He also apparently went to Pat Robertson's un-accredited law school, and primarily was trained as a religious advocate.

The Dem, by contrast, (Craigh Deeds, but pronounced funny - is that his name?) seems more intelligent and less doctrinaire, but his background appears to be primarily legislative.

Were there debates? Is there a contest? Offhand, as an independent, I'm veering toward Deeds (Dem) because of the radical-right implications in McDonnell's background, but there has been SOOO little press ... Help!!

Robert Barnes: The Post has published a number of stories on the race, as well as profiles of the candidates. I believe they are all accessible on washingtonpost.com. In addition, the Virginia Voter's Guide will be published on Thursday in the Extras.

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Springfield, Va.: I think it will be better if candidates run on their own records. The negative ads run by Jerry Kilgore have really turned me away. Do you think there should be some limitations on negative ad campaigns?

Robert Barnes: I don't think we'd want to restrict what candidates say in any way, do you? You learn about them by the decisions they make. Candidates certainly take a risk when they run negative ads; our poll shows Kilgore is being blamed for running the more negative campaign. But I would say others will not vote for Kaine because of what they've learned from Kilgore's commercials.

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Arlington, Va.: Have polls or your conversations told us what issues are motivating the voters in the election? Is party affiliation remaining the main predictor in how people are going to vote? What may move people to switch to a candidate of the other party?

Robert Barnes: In our poll, when asked what is the "most important issue in deciding how you'll vote for governor this year," 22 percent said public education, 16 percent said handling the state budget, 15 percent said taxes and 10 percent said job creation. Respondents gave Kaine higher marks on education, and said Kilgore would do a better job holding down taxes.

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Brandermill, Va.: Props to Michael Shear for great campaign coverage and for good blog entries. Too bad Kainiacs take over the blog comment sections for partisan sniping, instead of illumination. Anyway, will the blogging continue after the election to cover legislative issues?

washingtonpost.com: Race to Richmond: Notes from the Virginia Governor's Race

Robert Barnes: Mike Shear is about the hardest working reporter I know, and he loves blogging (and just about everything else about politics and state government). You can't shut the guy up!

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McLean, Va.: The poll that was published on Sunday had language that indicated that the results for Northern Virginia were adequate to draw an accurate picture of how the region would vote, but that the same was not true of other regions.

I am not a statistical expert, but it would seem that this means NoVA is overrepresented in the poll. Is this true? If not, why?

washingtonpost.com: Kaine Inches Ahead In Va. Race, Poll Finds (Post, Oct. 30)

Robert Barnes: The pollsters say that because NOVA is such a populous region, we had more respondents there who said they were sure they would vote, and we could draw more conclusions about them. All regions were represented in the poll, of course, but in some the numbers were too small for us to make specific reference.

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Richmond, Va.: Springfield wants candidates to run on their records. Kilgore was charged with negative campaigning for challenging some of Kaine's claims about his tenure as Richmond's mayors.

Why don't people just admit they don't like negative ads by the "other guy?"

Robert Barnes: Certainly both sides have said the other misrepresented the facts in their commercials.

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Raleigh, N.C.: Is there any truth to the scuttlebut that private party polling (on both sides) has shown a slight uptick in generic Democratic numbers, especially in NoVA, as compared to earlier this year?

Robert Barnes: Send me your sources, Raleigh! I believe that our most recent poll showed more independents saying they leaned Democratic.

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Fairfax, Va.: Why hasn't Jerry Kilgore made more of a campaign issue of the Warner tax increase and the subsequent budget surplus that is ending up just sitting there, while Kaine and others talk of "unmet needs" and "bills in the drawer?"

Robert Barnes: I think Kilgore has found that a majority of Virginians favored what Warner and the General Assembly did on that issue, which some Republicans like to call the biggest tax increase in state history and Democrats like to call budget reform

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Burke, Va.: We see a number of very hotly contested and well-financed races for the House of Delegates in Northern Virginia. Is there any polling data that provides a solid indication on where these races are heading? In my area of Burke, Fairfax, and Springfield, I see three races that can easily go to the opposite Party.

Also, I know you are not connected with the editorial board, but why does The Post wait until just before the election to publish its endorsements for legislative races?

Robert Barnes: I know of no public polls on those races. Democrats, and a few Republicans, whisper of polls that show some Republican candidates not doing as well as they hoped. In answer to another question, I don't know of anyone who believes Democrats will take over the House. As to your other point, I think a lot of voters don't tune in to the election until it gets very near.

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Bethesda, Md.: How much of an effect do you think the presence of moderate Russ Potts will have on the outcome? He seems like more the sensible old-school Republican that cares about transportation, education and health care than the fundamentalist hot-button stuff that Kilgore is feeding off of.

Robert Barnes: Russ Potts may have learned the hard way that voters aren't that crazy about being told a candidate will raise their taxes, even if it is for transportation. That, and a lack of money in a race that has gotten very expensive, have made it hard for him.

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Arlington, Va.: Why hasn't Kaine made an issue of the fact that Kilgore quit the job of Attorney General after only completing 75 percent of the term? To me, it speaks volumes about Kilgore's ambitions and inability to finish a job.

Robert Barnes: It is not unusual for candidates in Virginia to give up their offices when they begin a full time campaign. Otherwise, they are often criticized for keeping their state salaries and not spending enough time on the job.

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washingtonpost.com: Virginia Campaign Primer

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Vienna, Va.: Do you care to take a chance and offer your prediction as to who wins the statewide races next month ... that is, beyond the answer my grandfather used of "whoever gets the most votes!"

Robert Barnes: Sorry, no. Political reporters like a close race until about 8 on election night, and then we like a landslide. Makes writing the next day's story easier.

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Burke, Va.: Will your paper offer endorsements for Delegate races, and when will they come out?

Robert Barnes: I'm sorry, but that's a question for the editorial staff. I don't know their plans.

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washingtonpost.com: From The Post: Complete Coverage of the Virginia Elections

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Lightfoot, Va.: It would be interesting to know your credentials for covering Virginia politics. It's nice that you have opinions, but The Post's coverage of Virginia involves a long list of reporters (some distinguished) who covered Virginia politics as an obligation, then went back above the Potomac to do what they really wanted. This is a fair question, I believe, because the lack of institutional memory shows through the Post's coverage of Virginia constantly and frequently produces poor editorial judgment.

Robert Barnes: I've cover politics before on the Metro staff, and have been the national political editor. I helped supervise the Metro staff for the last eight years, and now write about politics on a regional basis. It's true many great reporters have cycled through the Virginia staff, and there is turnover. But I also think the paper has been lucky that some veteran Post reporters have made Richmond home and they provide great continuity. Virginia delivers elections every year; what else could a political reporter ask for?

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Richmond, Va.: Why are people getting so worked up about The Washington Post poll? To me, it just stands in a two-week old string of surveys showing the race within the margin of error.

Why all the whining from Republicans and chest beating from Democrats?

washingtonpost.com: Full Poll Results

Robert Barnes: Well, there you have it. Line up all the polls--Kaine slightly ahead in some, Kilgore slightly ahead in others--and what you will see is Kaine gaining support and a very close race.

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Arlington, Va.: How big a coup was it for Kilgore to get the approval of the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce? Didn't that basically put a nail in Kaine's transportation coffin? It's readily apparent that no transportation issue involving 66 will get done as long as Arlington can pull out the old NIMBY argument. It seems Fairfax would have been a huge endorsement for Kaine, instead it went to Kilgore.

Robert Barnes: I think you are right that it was important for Kilgore. Anything that provides a bit of separation between Kaine and Warner is what Republicans want. Kilgore was campaigning today on the issue of widening 66, but like you, I'm not holding my breath on that one.

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Fairfax, Va.: Did I read the article/poll correctly in that Kaine is leading Kilgore among voters living in Fairfax outside the beltway; Loudoun, and Prince William? If so this would be a major endorsement of Kaine's strategy to woo exurban voters?

washingtonpost.com: Kaine Inches Ahead In Va. Race, Poll Finds (Post, Oct. 30)

Robert Barnes: It is critical for Kilgore to do well in the outer suburbs, because the inner burbs are so strongly Democratic. One thing that has cheered Democrats throughout this race is that Fairfax went Democratic in the 2004 presidential race for the first time in 40 years. Kilgore needs to offset that in other parts of Northern Virginia and downstate.

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Vienna, Va.: This morning I noticed Kilgore signs near I-66 that said he would widen the road inside the beltway. Somehow I see widening I-66 being the Virginia equivalent of the Inter-County Connector. Nothing will ever happen, but we will never stop hearing about it.

Robert Barnes: Don't let Bob Ehrlich hear you say that.

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Williamsburg, Va.: I'm a law student at W &M who has been following the Gov race fairly closely.

It seemed like, from the start, this race was Kilgore's to lose, given the natural predilection of voters in this "red state" in which we live (Mark Warner excluded).

The convention wisdom from pols I've talked to is that to really be safe, Kaine would need at least a 5 point lead in the polls, not 2 or 3 (just as Warner had a 10 point lead going into Election Day and won by less than 4 points). Do you think this holds true this year, or will enough Republicans be turned off, by the national party's woes and a candidate that some GOP establishment have described as lackluster, to say home?

Robert Barnes: You're right that is the conventional wisdom. Republicans have always been good at getting out their voters. Whether the national environment hurts that, or whether Democrats have improved their get-out-the-vote effort, will determine the outcome.

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Fort Myers, Fla.: How much do we know about undecided voters in this particular race? Are there trends in terms of geographic area, ethnicity, income levels, or issues that matter to them?

Robert Barnes: Interesting question for which I don't have a good answer. I think the campaigns would say that it won't be long before the undecided voters simply become voters who have decided to stay home.

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Robert Barnes: I think that's all our time. I'm sorry if I didn't get to your question. Thanks again for your interest.

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