Washington Post staff writer Michael D. Shear was online Friday, Nov. 4, at 1 p.m. ET to discuss the latest news in Virginia's gubernatorial race before the election on Tuesday, Nov. 8.
From The Post:
Campaign Journal
Virginia Elections Coverage
washingtonpost.com Video: Immigration Issue Heats up in Herndon
The transcript follows.
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Michael D. Shear: Good afternoon, everyone. It's an exciting day already -- word that President Bush is apparently coming to Virginia for a last-minute rally Monday night for Jerry Kilgore. Meanwhile, Tim Kaine and Kilgore and the other candidates are both beginning their criss-crossing of the state. The governor's race is exceedingly close, the House of Delegates contests are hot and heavy (and expensive). So let's go. Throw out your questions about Campaign 2005 and I'll do the best I can.
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Richmond, Va.: A rumor floated around Richmond earlier this week that Kilgore internals were showing him down eight points, which would almost validate last Sunday's Post poll. Then comes Mason-Dixon showing it is still a horse race. In your view, who has the momentum and what's wrong with the polls, if anything?
Michael D. Shear: Ok, there are already a ton of questions about polling, so let's start there.
The campaigns rarely discuss their internal polls, and as a repoter, I rarely believe them when I hear them. If you step back a bit, though, the public polls have been remarkably consistent -- over the past several months or so they have shown Kaine slowly gaining strength and closing what had been a Kilgore advantage. More recently, most polls have shown Kaine with a very slight edge, though within the margin of error. The truth, I think, is that this is a very, very close race.
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Fairfax, Va.: In 2001, Mark Warner went into election day with a 10-point lead and won by 5 points. In 1993, George Allen had a 10-point lead and won by 17 points. It's seemed to me that the VA GOP simply has a better GOTV operation than the Democrats. Do you know if the Kaine campaign has any new strategies or tricks that will put them ahead of the last few Democratic campaigns in terms of GOTV?
Michael D. Shear: This is an interesting question that everyone is wondering? Who will close better?
The answer, of course, is that we don't know. Both parties say they are spending "millions of dollars" on "get out the vote" efforts, and both campaigns say the effort will be unprecedented in Virginia. But, then, you would expect them to say that. Warner's opponent did in fact close a gap at the end, but its interesting to keep in mind that President Bush's popularity was in the stratosphere then (right after 9/11), a very different situation than exists now.
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washingtonpost.com: Kaine Inches Ahead In Va. Race, Poll Finds (Post, Oct. 30)
Full Poll Results
Poll Shows Kilgore Ahead of Kaine in Va. (Post, Sept. 11)
Full Poll Results
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Chantiilly, Va.: Michael: I would love your thoughts on two of the hottest races in the state:
Black vs. Poisson in the 32nd District, and Craddock vs. Caputo in the 67th District. My sense is that Black is finally going down while Craddock could sneak in, despite some incredible recent gaffes.
Michael D. Shear: These are two of the hottest races, among several in Northern Virginia which look unexpectedly competitive.
Black has been a safe incumbent in his Republican-leaning district in Loudoun for years but appears to face a serious challenge this time. Chris Craddock is a conservative and a newcomer running against another newcomer.
If both lose on Tuesday, it could be a sign that President Bush's sagging popularity is affecting the fortunes of Republicans in Northern Virginia, where voters pay close attention to the political scene in Washington DC.
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washingtonpost.com: Bush's Popularity Reaches New Low (Post, Nov. 4)
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Falls Church, Va.: Mike - This morning, the VA State Board of Elections, issued a citation to the Tim Kaine campaign for a mailer that appeared to be endorsed by the Republican party. The Board also referred the issue to the Commonwealth's Attorney to further investigate whether the illegal mailer was intentional, and therefore subject to criminal penalties. How will this impact the Kaine campaign in the tight race?
Michael D. Shear: A little background: Kaine produced a mailer which cited a conservative group's email that criticized Jerry Kilgore for not being anti-tax enough. The mailer was designed to look like it came from the conservative group, and only in tiny letters did it say the Kaine campaign had produced it.
I'm not sure this will have much impact at this point. The Kaine campaign was fined $100, and the issue referred to prosecutors. This kind of thing happens frequently in elections and rarely affects the outcome.
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Richmond: Perhaps an unfair question, but do you mind ranking the probability of the following scenarios:
1. Narrow Kilgore Win
2. Narrow Kaine Win
3. Moderate Kaine Win (such as 5-10 points)
4. Moderate Kilgore Win
Michael D. Shear: Ok. That's fair. Here's my non-answer:
1. Narrow Kilgore Win - 25 percent chance
2. Narrow Kaine Win - 25 percent chance
3. Moderate Kaine Win (such as 5-10 points) - 25 percent chance
4. Moderate Kilgore Win - 25 percent chance
I think that adds up to 100 percent, right? The truth? Any or all of those things could happen.
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Reston, Va.: Does the Kilgore campaign have a larger warchest? Seems like all the commercials in DC are from Kilgore. What is the Kaine campaign doing to broadcast their message? Why aren't they responding to the Kilgore's negative commercials.
Michael D. Shear: You're smart to focus on the money, which has been a big part of the campaign this year. Both candidates have raised huge, almost record-breaking, sums. By the time we're done, both Kilgore and Kaine may approach $25 million.
Kilgore has a slight lead in fundraising, though Democrats finance their get out the vote efforts in slightly different ways that make direct comparisons a little tricky.
Kaine has resonded to some of Kilgore's negative ads, such as the controversial death penalty ads that ran a few weeks back. But the campaign has not chosen to answer all of them directly, preferring people to see the positive ads instead, such as the ones featuring Gov. Mark Warner.
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Binky, Va.: You've gained a reputation for a huge concern with campaign food during this campaign. What is the best food you've had on the campaign trail beat? Better still--what things have happened in this campaign that have made you drop your fork?
washingtonpost.com: Race to Richmond: Notes From the Virginia Governor's Race
Michael D. Shear: Binky is right. I've been quite interested in the food served at campaign events. (mostly bad hotel chicken). I think the best I've eaten was the fried Oreo cookie at the state fair.
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Charlottesville, Va.: How important are the undecideds in this race? Is there any indication which way they will break? Also, where in Virginia is President Bush coming?
Michael D. Shear: You're guess is as good as mine in terms of how the undecideds will break. There are many theories about how they typically break one way or the others. But this has been an odd election and I'm not sure how much stock to put in the conventional wisdom.
Kaine appears to have the edge among independent voters, so to the extent that the undecideds are from that group, Kaine probably has an edge there.
Bush will be coming to Richmond, I'm told.
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Dungannon, Va.: Is Kaine really up that big (T-D poll) in NOVA?
Michael D. Shear: The reference here is to the Mason Dixon poll, out today, which shows Kaine with a large lead over Kilgore in Northern Virginia.
That would be consistent with the Post poll we published last week, which showed Kaine not only ahead in the inner suburbs (Alexandria, Arlington, Falls Church, Fairfax County inside the Beltway) but also leading slightly outside the Beltway in places like Prince William and Loudoun.
That would be a surprise, frankly, because Republicans tend to do pretty well in the outer suburbs. Look for that on election night. If Kaine is winning there, he's probably having a good night.
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Woodbridge, Va.: We're getting almost no coverage in The Post about the Lieutenant Governor's race and the Attorney General's race. What do the polls show? Will they simnply follow the party winner in the governor's race?
Michael D. Shear: True, the Post has not done a poll on the attorney general or lieutenant governor's race. But we have written profiles of all four candidates and we've got a voter's guide that was published in Thursday's paper that has articles about each race. I'll put a link to them below.
Other polls have shown the lieutenant governor's race between Democrat Leslie Byrne and Republican Bill Bolling to be tight, while Republican Bob McDonnell appears to have a lead over Democrat Criegh Deeds in the AG race.
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washingtonpost.com: Voter's Guides:
Maryland | Virginia
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washingtonpost.com: Virginia Elections Coverage
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Fairfax, Va.: I feel the negative campaigning has been counterproductive. Almost every day I get something in the mail from the Kilgore and Chris Craddock campaigns trashing their opponents. It's almost laughable. I waiting for an ad that says "Chuck Caputo eats children for breakfast." I now think that Kilgore and Craddock are jerks, and I don't want to vote for them. I haven't gotten anything in the mail from the Democrat campaigns, so maybe they are doing the same thing, but I don't know. I'm still undecided...
Michael D. Shear: This has been a big theme this year. I spent a week traveling around to different parts of the state last month and everywhere I went people said the attacks were turning them off. Our poll also picked up that theme, with large majorities saying the negative campaigning was upsetting.
Kilgore appears to be getting the brunt of that criticism, in part because of the attention his death penalty ads received. Those ads were very powerful and emotional, showing the relatives of murder victims. And one suggested that Kaine would not favor the death penalty for Adolph Hitler, and that got a lot of criticism.
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Washington, D.C.: How does Virginia always get such boring looking candidates? I couldn't pick any of these out of a lineup.
Michael D. Shear: Well, ok. These guys aren't Arnold Schwarzenegger or Jesse Ventura. But boring?
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Alexandria, Va.: I read that President Bush will be campaigning with Kilgore in Richmond. With Bush's ratings at an all-time low, will this have a negative impact on Kilgore's chances of gaining more interest from republican and undecided voters?
Michael D. Shear: I think the Kilgore campaign is betting that Bush will actually help among undecided voters. Here's their thinking: the GOP problems which climaxed last week (Libby indictment, Miers nomination, etc) are fading a bit, and it's still a real coup to get the President of the United States to campaign for you. They figure that for every person they lose, they get one or more who comes to the polls because they are revved up by the President.
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Reston, Va.: Why did The Post think it appropriate to run an Editorial condemning Kilgore only one "working day" before the election?
Michael D. Shear: You would have to address that question to our editorial board, which is quite separate from the news staff here at the Post. That's one thing that's sometimes confusing for readers, who assume that there is coordination between the people who write the opinions for the paper and those of us who cover the campaign for the news pages. I can assure you there is not.
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Burke, Va.: Hi Mike - Can't wait until the ridiculous # of election signs come down. Any thoughts on the delegate race for the 41st District between Marsden and Golden? Marsden seems to be the more experienced candidate while Golden apears to be much better financed.
Michael D. Shear: Oh, those wonderful campaign signs. I've actually noticed far fewer of them this year than in the past, though I'm sure there are pockets where they are heavy.
I don't have any great thoughts about the Marsden-Golden race, as I've been concentrating most of my time on the governor's campaign. I believe my colleague Chris Jenkins is writing a story for this weekend on the Northern Virginia House races, so look for that, perhaps on Sunday.
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Arlington, Va.: Most of the recent polls I've seen now show Kaine leading by 2-3 points (although still within the margin of error); but I recall that the Democrat in recent VA governor elections-- Warner and Wilder come to mind-- fared significantly less well than their last pre-election poll numbers indicated. So what is your guess? Does Kaine really have a slight lead, or would you pick Kilgore??
Michael D. Shear: As I indicated before, my best guess would be that the race is very, very closek, regardless of what the polls show. That's the way that both campaigns appear to be treating it.
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Charlottesville, Va.: Is the joint Bush/Kilgore rally going to be open to the public or is it going to be one of these pre-screened audience events that Bush usually requires?
Michael D. Shear: It appears to be a public event, but you have to request tickets in advance. I will publish the link to their website below. The email from the Kilgore campaign says those who are interested can pick up tickets at one of four locations from Noon - 8 pm on Saturday, Sunday, and from 9 am - 2 pm on Monday.
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washingtonpost.com: Ticket Request Form (jerrykilgore.com)
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Haysi, Va.: Two good bellwhether counties to watch are Dickenson and Buchanan in Southwest VA. Both are culturally conservative, but still very strongly Democrat b/c of both labor (coal miners) and ancestral ties. Kerry won both in '04. If Kilgore can't win in these sort of places in his home area, he is gonna have a tough night.
Michael D. Shear: Thanks for that tip. Those of us in Northern Virginia and Richmond probably wouldn't have thought to watch those particular counties.
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Michael D. Shear: Thanks, everyone. Great questions, but too many to get to them all. Remember, whatever you do, if you live in Virginia go vote on Tuesday.
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: Guest: Dr. Michael S. Horton