Potomac Confidential: Election Special

Join Marc Fisher Throughout the Evening for Complete Post Election Coverage

Welcome to Election Night on Potomac Confidential , as we check in on the big statewide races and on the most interesting and hotly contested Virginia General Assembly elections.

I'll be with you from 7 to 8 p.m. immediately after the polls close, and then again at the top of each hour until all the dust settles late tonight.

I'll bring you the latest results, analysis from Washington Post reporters and editors, a glimpse at what other media and the state's busy political bloggers are saying, and of course your comments, questions and observations from wherever you may be.

If you're out at candidates' celebrations or watching TV around the state, please give us a taste of what you're seeing and hearing.

Stay with Potomac Confidential and www.washingtonpost.com/metro throughout Election Night for complete coverage of the area vote.

A transcript follows.

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Marc Fisher: Welcome aboard, Virginians and politics junkies everywhere. This has been another one of those Election Days on which we keep hearing alternately optimistic and pessimistic bits from both sides of the political spectrum. There are no exit polls to give us a good peek inside voters' heads, so we're left with the highly unreliable art of reading the tea leaves of voter turnout. At various points today, Dems and Repos each have claimed to be pleased by high turnouts in their most dependable precincts.

But the governor's race, and some of the closest House races, seem to be tight.

I'll be here throughout the 7-8 pm hour and then again every hour thereafter, starting at the top of the hour and continuing for as long as seems to make sense. Each hour, I'll pass along the latest results and I'll make the rounds in the newsroom to talk to Post reporters and editors who are covering each of the major races. Then, I'll report back to you as the evening progresses. And I'll check in with some of the state's political bloggers to give you an idea of how the results are playing among the politically involved. (I love that phrase. When I wrote a feature on the Weather Channel soon after it became a big cultural phenomenon, the executives there told me about the small but important audience of folks who watch the channel several hours each day. They're known to the Weather Channel bosses as "the Weather Involved.")

Come ahead with your questions, comments and observations from today's vote.

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Gainesville, Va.: Well, I did it. I actually voted for a Democrat (Kaine) for the first time in my life. I just don't believe that Kilgore will do anything positive about the issues that actually matter in Northern Virginia, which are transportation and education. I'd considered Potts, but we received some campaign literature this weekend touting the ways in which he is more liberal than Kaine (my wife is a Democrat, so I suppose that's why they sent it to our house), so that pushed me to Kaine by default. Still, it feels kind of icky.

On the plus side, however, my wife voted for McDonnell for AG, after Deeds got the NRA endorsement. Supporting the same candidate two times in the one election is a first in our household; who knows what we'll end up agreeing on next?

Marc Fisher: 7:01: Fascinating. Actually, take a closer look at that literature that pushed you over the top for Kaine. It sounds like it might be a controversial piece put out by Kilgore supporters that masqueraded as a pro-Kaine brochure but was really meant to lure liberals to Potts.

Wow again: Your wife voted for McDonnell as the more anti-gun candidate for Attorney General? McDonnell is arguably the most conservative candidate on the statewide ballot--assuming he wins tonight, he'd be the first graduate of Pat Robertson's law school to win statewide office.

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Arlington, Va.: I'm posting this early and before the election results are received, but I must say I don't think it has been overstated how much damage Kilgore's negative campaigning has caused him.

I recently visited my inlaws who live in Southern Virginia and are diehard Republicans; both stated that they would be voting for Kaine because of his shameless and revolting campaigning. This is the first time in 25 years that either of them have voted Democrat in any race.

Granted, it is only a sample size of two, but others I have spoken to have also expressed this point regarding Kilgore's campaign ads.

Marc Fisher: 7:03: No matter the results tonight, I think it's already fair to say that the Kilgore death penalty spots backfired. The Post's poll strongly indicated that, as did our reporting all around the state. The ads were beautifully made--to my eye and ear, the Kilgore TV campaign was much higher quality than the Kaine ads--but the death penalty spots were simply too harsh an attack, and while Kaine's position and response were not emotionally appealing, they had a certain honesty and directness to them that provided an effective counter to the Kilgore assault.

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Arlandria, Va.: Mr Fisher -- Thanks for spending the evening with us. What impact do you think the blogs have had on this campaign? Have they started to replace the political reporters from newspapers as the force that shapes the main issues of the campaign?

Marc Fisher: 7:04: Blogs have played a more obvious and important role in this race than in any previous state race. Most of the blogs are highly partisan, but there's been a growing and fascinating conversation stretching across ideological lines as the commentariat trades barbs, insights and arguments on each other's comment boards. I've been startled by how much time and attention the campaigns are devoting to the bloggers, from appearing on blogs for Q&A sessions to monitoring the comment boards almost by the hour. As a couple of bloggers told me, if the candidates and their managers are spending that much time watching the blogs, they're less likely to win, because they're wasting time they should be spending out rustling up votes.

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Bethesda, Md.: So does tonight start the countdown to Mark Warner announcing his national candidacy? I've been assuming he would wait so as not to steal air out of the governor's race, but haven't heard anything lately. Personally I can't wait for him to jump in.

Marc Fisher: 7:04: No doubt Warner is moving ever more fully into national campaign mode. He's on the road a fair amount, and he's hiring up for the presidential run. His sky-high numbers at home in Virginia give him a comfortable perch, but tonight's result will be important for him, just as it is for the president.

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Falls Church, Va.: I have general questions about exit polling. Was it ever common practice to release exit poll numbers before the polls close? If so why did the practice stop, because they were affecting the election or because in 2000 they proved unreliable? Thanks!

Marc Fisher: 7:06--Exit poll results are ALWAYS released to news organizations with the absolute proviso that no results are to be used before the polls close. That said, as we've seen over the years, the TV networks developed codes to wink at viewers with the news of who was likely to win during their early evening newscasts. That practice got out of control in recent national elections, and contributed to the sense that the system was broken. None of this is a problem in a state race like tonight's because there are no exit polls.

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Arlington, Va.: Marc -- Though it's too late to do anything about it now, I hope you will look into the reports of people getting phone calls telling them their precincts were closed. I spoke with a woman this morning outside Washington-Lee High School who said she got a call telling her W-L was closed. She didn't know what else to do, so she came anyway -- only to find it was open, of course.

She had a heavy accent and was obviously an immigrant; and W-L is a heavily Democratic precinct. It's not that difficult to surmise the motivation of the people making these calls.

It's a scummy, revolting way to try to affect an election.

Marc Fisher: 7:08--We hear all sorts of reports of irregularities over the course of an Election Day and we try to check them out. No one here knows about this one. But there do seem to have been an unusual number of odd phone calls and radio spots in the final hours of this campaign--calls that apparently seek to dampen turnout or that appear to be from one candidate and are actually in support of another. The state board of elections took up a couple of these issues over the past few days and hit both the Kaine and Kilgore campaigns with $100 fines.

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Fairfax, Va.: Weingarten says you guys at the Post have early exit polls and tend to know who has already won (though he admits that you all had the Kerry "win" wrong -- we won't go into any theories on that right now]). Is that true?

Marc Fisher: 7:10--As I said above, there are no exit polls in this year's elections, so we only hear the surmises and spin from the campaigns and the midday turnout numbers from the various county elections offices. Anyone who can confidently predict tonight's results based on that slim evidence needs to get on over here pronto.

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Burke, Va.: Comment:

At 6:05 I was the 23rd voter for my part of the alphabet. Seems like good turnout.

Marc Fisher: 7:12--Too many election nights have brought the scene of reporters breathlessly hustling into the newsroom to report that turnout in their precinct is hugely up or down, only for us to learn later that the numbers show turnout was exactly the opposite of what it had seemed to be to the naked eye. Turnout is a great measure in retrospect only.

But if you are numbers hungry and you've just refreshed the screen to find that there are still no returns, here's something to chew on:

At intrade.com, one of those newfangled online exchanges where you can bet on current events, the traders are buying Kaine in a big way. Kaine is selling at 75 (out of 100) and Kilgore is selling at 34 as the polls closed. Kaine has gone up by more than 15 in the final 24 hours of trading there, for whatever that's worth.

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Fairfax, Va.: In NOVA, where transportation issues rule, does it appear that either candidate was able to persuade the average citizen that they in fact really could do anything about addressing the problem?

Marc Fisher: 7:16--Not only did neither Kilgore nor Kaine connect on transportation, but both seemed essentially to send the message that this is not their priority and that they do not believe it is the voters' priority. Kilgore told me that holding the line on taxes is much more important to Virginians, and Kaine and Potts both told me that education trumps transportation for most voters. So of course the K's both had to pretend to have a transportation plan, but in neither case does it really qualify as anything that a dictionary would recognize as a "plan."

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Fairfax, Va. : Voted for Kilgore despite his incompetent campaign -- mainly on his stand on wideningI-66 and to crack down of illegal imigrants.

IMO, Kilgore's campaign should have focused on these two issues in their Northern Virginai. Many independents and Democrats are supportive of these stands.

Marc Fisher: 7:17--Kilgore didn't start hitting the immigration issue hard until the final week or so. The GOP is quite split on this question, with the president and his following arguing that it's more important to embrace Hispanic voters than to appeal to whites who are angry about illegal immigrants.

Do you really think Kilgore--or any governor--will widen 66, even in the face of massive resistance from Arlington?

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washingtonpost.com: intrade.com

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Williamsburg, Va.: There have been some reports of voting machine malfunctions in Roanoke County (Kaine supporters claimed that their votes were not counted). Any other alleged incidents like this around the state that you've heard of?

Marc Fisher: 7:19--I have a slew of questions on this, but have not seen anything as yet from our reporters or from other news outlets. Let's keep an eye on this as the evening progresses.

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Alexandria, Va.: I got that Potts/Kaine brochure too. .. and from your comment I now see the "Paid for and authorized by Virginians for Jerry Kilgore" on the side of Kaine's picture on the inside. Very sneaky.

Marc Fisher: 7:21--Yes, quite underhanded. If you have it handy, please share with the class some of the key language from the flier. Thanks.

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Reston, Va.: I was surprised that everyone I know had the candidates listed Kilgore, Kaine, Potts on the Fairfax County WinVote touch screen machines.

I called Kaine HQ, and they said that this was as expected. Some Googling suggests that the Republican-controlled legislature gets to choose ballot order ... and put R's first for all races.

Apparently order effects can account for 5 percent in races with lots of candidates, but aren't too big a deal in general elections with limited choices.

Still, I was surprised that in the move to e-voting, the order wasn't randomized as most academics seem to consider best.

Marc Fisher: 7:22--I don't know exactly how ballot position works in Virginia law--anybody have that handy? I know that in many other states, the results of a previous election determine ballot order, so if you elect a Democrat as governor, that party gets lead position on the ballot the next time out. Obviously, the Virginia rule is not based on the previous gubernatorial race....

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Reston, Va.: Marc,

This is the first election in over 10 years that I haven't voted. None of these candidates interested me. Do you know what is up?

Marc Fisher: 7:26--If you're looking for a giant leap forward in the quality of candidates, you're not looking at the same country I see. We are still very much in a period in which the emerging arts of marketing, research and media persuasion have the upper hand over any politics that speaks to this society's essential concerns. I think that inevitably there'll be a backlash against this trend, but it isn't happening yet.

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Fairfax, Va. : Do you agree that the Potts campaign hurt Kaine more then Kilgore? It seems that Potts gives liberal Republicans an alternative to Kaine.

Why has the Post given so much attention to Potts in any event -- his campaign is a joke.

Marc Fisher: 7:29-- With 2 percent of the vote in, Kaine is up 53-45, which is probably meaningless, especially since we don't know where those votes are coming from.

I think you saw Potts get quite a bit of attention early in the race, when his decision to strike out against his own party was an important story. As he failed to raise much money and as his message seemed not particularly to connect, the amount of coverage he got declined dramatically, to his own frustration. I wrote a column about him back in June and then didn't get back to him til I did a valedictory piece on his failed campaign last week.

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Re: ballot order: I spoke with Leslie Byrne's husband at a Falls Church precinct this morning. He said that the ballot order ordinarily is decided by a coin toss, but that this year with multiple gubernatorial candidates, they chose the party names out of a hat. Republican came out first.

One wonders if 'R' was on the other two slips of paper in the hat.

Marc Fisher: 7:31--Thanks for the info. Whose hat?

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Fairfax, Va. : You asked

"Do you really think Kilgore -- or any governor -- will widen 66, even in the face of massive resistance from Arlington? "

I think it is a great issue for a Republicans. It will annoy Arlingtonians to no end but as the city is a Dem. stronghold it will cost the Republicans little and pick up many more votes from commuters.

Marc Fisher: 7:33--Look at the decades of debate and anguish in Maryland over whether to build the Inter County Connector between Montgomery and Prince George's counties. Regardless of partisan politics, the power of NIMBYs and environmentalists to gum up virtually any road project is enormous, and an attempt to build through a heavily developed urban area will require a huge political drive, which I don't think anyone from another part of the state--meaning either Kilgore or Kaine--has incentive to undertake.

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Arlington, Va.: Just want to say that my favorite ad of the campaign was Craig Deeds conclusion to his abortion attack-ad against McDonnell. I love the part where he said "We can't say no to progress and hope." It was so passionately said, and so expressed my feelings on issues such as stem cell research.

Marc Fisher: 7:35--Deeds ran a very odd and low-key campaign, at least in this part of the state. Probably because he lacked the funds to get on Washington area TV much, he came off here as someone who was much more focused on the rest of Virginia.

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Baltimore, Md.: Hey Marc,

Any chance the lib media will stop the Bush bashing long enough to realize that people usually vote for the best candidate? It seems, unfortunately for this conservative, it's Kaine this time. This is about two candidates for Govenor of Virginia, not about Iraq.

Marc Fisher: 7:37--I don't think it's liberal or conservative to look toward off-year elections and see if they hold some meaning for national politics and for the president. That happens in every election cycle and sometimes the results do have a broader meaning and sometimes they don't. As the Post's Peter Baker pointed out in today's A section, both the Bush White House and the Democrats in Congress believe that the Virginia vote will tell us something about the direction of this presidency. Why else would the president show up on election eve to a Kilgore rally?

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Fairfax, Va.: Ballot position is determined by the winner of the last presidential race, in this case Bush won and the R's are put at the top of the ballot in Virginia.

Marc Fisher: 7:39--Another explanation, and this one rings a bell with me, for whatever that's worth. Thanks.

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Beautiful downtown Lake Ridge, Va.: I'm a Republican, and I've been pleased with Gov. Warner. But it seems to me his popularity is based on not doing anything wrong -- versus having to make hard choices -- the kind of thing you constantly do as president. He passed what really was a modest tax increase, but never faced super tough/stark political choices -- an extremely severe budget crisis, a fight with state employee unions, or a Terry Schiavo-type of issue.

Virginia's one term governor restriction doesn't groom people for national office because no one is ever around long enough to really prove anything. After all, most president's problems tend to appear in their second term!

Marc Fisher: 7:40--You have a good point, but I'd argue--as I'm sure Warner would and we all know Kaine did--that last year's tax battle was indeed one of those testing moments, and Warner prevailed when many on both sides of the aisle had predicted he wouldn't. Other than that battle, he did have a relatively smooth ride, but it should also be noted that that smooth ride came about against a heavily Republican legislature, so you have to grant Warner some credit for restoring the state's financial security even in that troubled political atmosphere.

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washingtonpost.com: Governor Race/Two Percent Precincts

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Philadelphia, Pa.: Are exit polls used primarily to call elections or are they used to obtain demographic information about the electorate? If the reason they're not being used in the Virginia election is to avoid erroneously calling the race, why not use exit polls to find out why voters voted the way they did?

Marc Fisher: 7:43--Exit polls are used for various purposes by various users. The TV and web information purveyors use exit polls to guide their election night coverage. We in the print business use them both for instant analysis of returns and for a deeper demographic look on the days following a vote. But the reason there are no exit polls in most statewide races is that they are very expensive to conduct.

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Arlington, Va.: I am beyond upset about the misleading phone messages being left by the Kilgore-supporting PAC. Yesterday's appeared to be from NARAL Virginia, endorsing Potts. I know this race has been dirty, but that is beyond the pale -- what are your thoughts about this?? I can't believe they would do something sooo misleading.

Marc Fisher: 7:45--It is indeed ugly. And perfectly timed for the final hours of a campaign so that no enforcement agency can shut them down before the vote. Of course this sort of thing has always been with us, but that doesn't make it right, and you'd think that in a sped-up information society, there'd be innovative ways to shut down that sort of trickery on the double.

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washingtonpost.com: Correction: The above numbers represent 6 percent precincts.

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Alexandria, Va.: The one candidate I am really pulling for is Bill Cleveland for sheriff. He is such a decent man and true public servant. But even my strong Republican positions had trouble "pulling the lever" for the other R's on the ballot, especially Kilgore, who was a terrible candidate. I held my nose and did it anyway, but it was tough. Anyway, I hope Mr. Cleveland can pull it out. Thanks.

Marc Fisher: 7:47--About 6 percent of the vote in now, and Kaine is still up, by 53-46. Both other statewide races are holding Republican, by similar margins.

I don't see any numbers yet on the Cleveland race.

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Silver Spring, Md.: In my opinion, Kilgore calling in Bush at the last minute was the ultimate sign of pure desperation. As I told my co-workers today, that was like "taking the noose and putting it around your own neck." My prediction is a blowout by Kaine and let the Bush-bashing begin in the national media!

Marc Fisher: 7:49--I heard arguments from both parties today in both directions about the Bush appearance. The Kilgore argument is that this was an effective way to rally the base and that by doing so at the last minute, you minimize the chance of provoking any sort of backlash. The Kaine argument is that this was serving up red meat to independents who will determine the outcome of this race and who by and large have had it with Bush. It all comes down to turnout, of course, but the Kaine argument seems more intuitively right. In such a tight race, why risk alienating voters who you know hold this president in much lower regard than they did a year ago?

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Arlington, Va.: We were just called with a 3-minute poll -- did I vote, who did I vote for in the gov race, and my gender. Who do you figure that was?

Marc Fisher: 7:52--Could be a candidate, could be national party, could be an advocacy group. Were there any other questions, anything issue-specific?

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Vienna, Va.: Prior to voting tonight, I Googled both Kaine and Kilgore to find their home pages. It's proven that the top left spot on Google's sponsored section get's the most eyeballs. I thought it was interesting that Kilgore bought that spot for both his name and Kaine's. In the Kaine result, it was a Kilgore ad with negative comments about Kaine. It will be interesting to see if the savvier Republicans will benefit. For my part, I voted Kaine, despite his inept eMarketing campaign.

Marc Fisher: 7:52--Interesting exercise. But would you let that sort of thing alter your vote or your overall judgment of a candidate?

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Williamsburg, Va.: I think your numbers are slow. Check Commonwealth of Virginia/General Election here and see the numbers (20% are reporting, Kilgore with a big lead)

Marc Fisher: 7:55--The numbers I posted earlier were from the Associated Press tally. The state board of elections site now has 27.6 percent of ballots counted and has Kaine up by 51-47.

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Alexandria, Va.: Do returns from the rural counties (or I should say precincts) generally come in last? If so, that would obviously mean any results up to then would be skewed in favor of Kaine and against Kilgore.

As a Kaine supporter I'm trying to avoid getting excited by numbers that may predictably tumble at the end. Election Day 2004 with the early false exit polls was about all the emotional roller coaster I can handle for a while.

Marc Fisher: 7:57--Pre-Internet, rural votes tended to come in later because they had to be driven to the county elections office. That's still the case in some places, but for the most part, geography no longer rules speed of count. The only way I have to judge which votes we're seeing right now is by looking at which House delegate races are reporting any results, and the ones I see toting up on the boards are mostly not from northern Virginia.

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Woah Nelly!: The State Board of Elections site is reporting 20 percent of precincts in and Kilgore WAY up!?

Should I give up now? Is that enough precincts in for you guys to call this?

I'm SOOOOO depressed!

Marc Fisher: 7:59--Don't draw any conclusions yet. The state elections board is now at 31 percent counted, and Kaine is up 52-46. A third of the vote is a significant number, but it ain't over. At this pace, however, you should have a result within an hour.

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Re Potts/Kaine brochure: The key piece of language for me is the cover, which reads "2005 Official Democrat and Progressive Voter Guide." Yes, Tim Kaine's campaign had an illegal flyer, too, but their flyer never claimed to be the "official Republican voter guide." That's the biggest difference to me, and not one of the very few (and very brief) mentions of this deceptive flyer mentioned the title at all. Then there are the phone calls, which no media has discussed that I've seen, recorded calls where Republicans spliced together Tim Kaine's voice to pretend the call was coming from the Kaine campaign. They did this Sunday night, probably so that they would get minimal media attention before the election.

Marc Fisher: 8:00--Yes, there've been a number of stories about those phone calls. I hope none of these tactics will be forgotten and I'd like to see both the press and the state elections board take a closer look at such antics after this is over. The state elections board's enforcement capabilities are remarkably limited, sad to say.

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Alexandria, Va.: Which blogs do you regard as reaching across partisan lines? Not that I need another online distraction, but it would be nice to read something that isn't the textual equivalent of the televised shouters.

Marc Fisher: 8:02--All of these that I'm going to mention have a clear point of view, but their hosts are nonetheless open to cross-cultural discussion and seem to enjoy a relatively civil form of give and take: waldojaquith.com, commmonwealthconservative.com, and particularly baconsrebellion.com There are lots more, but that'll have to wait for a less hectic moment.

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Burke, Va.: Some early results from the Terra Centre precinct in Burke. This precinct went for Kerry by 1 percent last year.

Kaine 600

Kilgore 409

Potts 15

Bolling 427

Byrne 589

McDonnell 459

Deeds 554

House of Delegates - 41st District

Marsden 603

Golden 417

Marc Fisher: 8:05--That would tend to support the idea that Bush's decline in popularity has some impact here. But I'd want to see similar trends in less Democratic areas first.

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washingtonpost.com: 7:55 p.m.: Elections/Virginia Governor, 19 Percent Precincts

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Marc Fisher: 8:07--To the Alexandria voter who was interested in the sheriff race, Cleveland is losing at the moment to Dana Lawhorne by 59-41.

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Alexandria, Va.: I got the phone poll call a few minutes ago as well. It asked a lot of questions, who did I vote for, what do I think of Bush, what issue was most important to me, my race, education, etc.

Also, 20 percent of precincts reporting doesn't mean 20 percent of voters.

Marc Fisher: 8:08--If anyone else gets that call, please ask the name of the firm conducting the survey. They won't tell you who's paying for the poll, but they'll usually tell you the name of the company doing the work.

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Alexandria, Va.: In looking at individual county/city results in the southern parts of the state, it appears that there is a lot of ticket splitting, with Kaine ahead of Kilgore but Byrne trailing behind Bolling. Could this be a sign of Republicans shifting to Kaine in light of the negative campaigning from the Kilgore camp? Thanks for hosting this great chat!

Marc Fisher: 8:09--I'm seeing Kaine up while the Republicans are winning for lieutenant governor and attorney general both statewide and in quite a number of places around Virginia. Lots of ticket splitting.

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Alexandria, Va.: My family fervently believes that voting is not only a right but a duty. In fact, it was celebrated. Every election we are there when the polls open, then we would all go out for breakfast. My mom is first generation and she always explained that voting was a freedom her parents didn't have growing up. My dad's family came to the U.S. in the 1600s and he believes that voting is a founding principle of what we fought for in 1776. It's a tradition that I continue even though I live over 400 miles away in a much larger town. I simply do not understand people who don't vote. I think anyone who complains about the government should be asked if they voted. If the answer is no, it's fairly obvious that these people simply like to whine more than actually do something about what they are whining about.

Marc Fisher: 8:10--There've been a bunch of stories in recent days about how voting is such an irrational behavior, from an economist's perspective, because there's no economic benefit from a single vote. But that completely misses the driving force in most of our lives, our emotional connection to family and home and history--and voting speaks directly to that, even if it doesn't make mathematic sense.

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Marc Fisher: 8:12--I'm going to take a short break to gather some numbers and other info and I'll be back here with you at 8:40. Please send along your thoughts and questions as the results come in.

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washingtonpost.com: 8:08 p.m. ET: Elections/Virginia Governor, 29 Percent

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washingtonpost.com: Early Returns Show Kaine Leading in Gubernatorial Race (Post, Nov. 8, 8:18 p.m. ET)

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washingtonpost.com: 8:28 p.m. ET: Elections/Virginia Governor, 52 Percent

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Reston, Va.: We all voted today for not only a Governor, but for a Lt. Governor. But I'll be honest: I have absolutely no clue what a Lt. Governor does here in the Commonwealth! What do you think is the most important role of Virginia's Lt. Governor?

Marc Fisher: 8:40--The lieutenant governor's chief function is to run for governor four years hence. Seriously, the lt gov is seriously underemployed. His main job is to preside over the state Senate, but he rarely does that. And if he's of a different party from the gov, it's not clear that he gets to do anything but issue press releases about how he disagrees with the chief.

Speaking of the #2 job, it looks at this stage as if Leslie Byrne could be the only Democrat not to win in the statewide races. Republican Bill Bolling holds a slim 50-49 lead with nearly half the precincts counted.

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Marc Fisher: 8:40--Back live with you here, and the numbers are coming in fast and furious, pointing to four more years of Democratic rule in the governor's mansion, driven so far at least by a particularly strong Democratic showing in Fairfax.

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Alexandria, Va.: I know you're doing moment-to-moment results but ...

Isn't it odd that there could be a governor and lieutenant governor of different parties? Imagine if we'd gotten Kerry and Cheney in 2004?

That must have happened. In that case, does the Lt. Gov just find a nice quiet place to read for four years?

Marc Fisher: 8:41--Think of it as getting paid to prep for your nexy job search.

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Rockville, Md.: If the races end up as the current partial returns from the State Board of Elections, then the Democrats would win the Governorship, but lose the other two. What message do you think that would give?

Marc Fisher: 8:44--That would be an unmistakable message that the Kilgore campaign went too hard on the death penalty, abortion and the notion that Tim Kaine's values were out of step with Virginia's. And it would be a fair indicator that at a time when the Republican national politicians are in increasing disfavor, Virginians are comfortable with the idea of a divided government rather than one-party rule.

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Vienna, Va.: From "that Potts/Kaine brochure"

Front reads:

"INSIDE: Learn which candidate for Governor truly shares your progressive principles"

-picture of red headed donkey]

2005 Official Democrat and Progressive Voter Guide - Governor of Virginia"

Top inside says:

"Learn where the candidates seeking your vote stand on the issues most important to Democrat and progressive votes"

On "Defending women's reproductive rights:"

Tim Kaine "QUESTIONABLE: Told the Virginia Bar Association that he is "pro-life." Radio ads in rural Virginia stating his support for a ban on partial birth abortion, parental consent and stating his opposition to public funding of abortion. As a result he did not receive the NARAL endorsement."

On "Toughening gun control laws"

Progressive Russ Potts "SUPPORTS: Supports mandatory firearms safety training for all gun buyers and gun owners."

Tim Kaine: "OPPOSES: Told a leading gun rights group he supports: -recognizing other states concealed-weapons permits ...."

Then more on Removing discrimination from adoption, Marriage rights for same-sex couples, Protecting funding for education and health care, Preserving community-based government services, Protecting undocumented workers.

At the bottom

"Tim Kaine has turned his back on the issues you believe in

Call him at (804) 673-2100 and tell him just how disappointed you are

Russ Potts is the only candidate who will stand up for progressive principles"

P.S. I also got a door hanger telling me to go to the wrong polling place.

Marc Fisher: 8:43--Well, that's depressing. But it doesn't seem to have had much impact. The numbers from Fairfax are strikingly blue. Kaine is pulling 60 percent in Fairfax, with 76 percent of precincts in. That's nothing short of remarkable. Even a moderate Repo like John Mason appears to be losing in his House race against Dem David Bulova.

In the contested House races in Fairfax, the only Republican who is ahead is David Albo, and only narrowly at this point.

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Alexandria, Va.: Marc --

I think Potts may take some of both parties votes this year. My friend at work is a registered Republican, voted for Bush twice. But she was so disgusted w/Kilgore and his TV commercials she voted for Potts to send a message.

Marc Fisher: 8:46--Well, she's not alone, but she's pretty close to it. Potts has fizzled big time. At the moment, Potts is drawing barely two percent of the vote with almost two-thirds of precincts counted.

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Fairfax Station: Is there any way to tell which precincts are in? I'm looking at the state board of elections site, and I'm not seeing any indication of which precincts have been counted.

Marc Fisher: 8:47--It's hard to tell. You can look at some of the delegate races and get an idea of which votes have been counted. Looking at the Mason-Bulova race in Fairfax, for example, you see that Mason, a former Fairfax City mayor, is leading in his hometown, but is behind outside the city and that's why Bulova is winning so far.

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washingtonpost.com: 8:28 p.m. ET: AUDIO Report From Carol Morello at Kaine Headquarters in Richmond, Va.

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Las Vegas, Nev. : Hi there, I have been looking at the results as they have been coming in by county and comparing it to the 2004 presidential vote. Kilgore is consistently running behind Bush anywhere from 11-7 points. I know there is about half the precincts reporting but I will predict that Kaine will win. Based on the comparisons I've been looking at. Kilgore is not winning by the margins he needs to overcome Kaine's strength in the Democratic areas of the state. I think it will be a 2-5 point victory for Kaine.

Marc Fisher: 8:48--That sounds right--in Fairfax, Kaine is running several points ahead of John Kerry.

And with 58 percent of the vote counted in Prince William, which Bush won last year, Kaine is up 50-48. The other two GOP statewide candidates are winning in Prince Willy, though barely. In the closely watched District 52 race between Jeff Frederick (R) and Hilda Barg (D), the longtime county supervisor is ahead by a hair.

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Fairfax, Va.: I've heard that absentee votes aren't counted unless the race is very tight when all regular votes are counted. I see that in the local precincts reported, the absentee votes are at zero. Do you know if what I've heard is true?

Marc Fisher: 8:52--Yes, that's often the case. If the margin of victory is larger than the total number of absentee ballots, there's no point in processing them.

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washingtonpost.com: 8:46 p.m. ET: Elections/Virginia Governor, 67 Percent

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Falls Church, Va.: Even if Byrne loses, I actually think her results right now (49 percent?) are AMAZING. I mean, she's a PROUD LIBERAL WOMAN. Getting 49 percent of the vote in Virginia! I don't think any pundit would have predicted that a year ago.

The times they are a-changin'.

(I hope, anyway.)

Marc Fisher: 8:54--Well, I don't know if the times are changing or this is an endorsement of Mark Warner or this is a statement against the Republicans or simply a rejection of Jerry Kilgore as a weak candidate who ran an offensively nasty campaign. But if the Kaine lead holds, it'll be interesting to hear the Democrats on whether they should have linked Kaine and Byrne more than they did. Many in the Kaine camp were fearful of doing much with Byrne because she seems more liberal than Kaine wanted to appear.

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Vienna, Va.: FYI -- I got the three-question poll too. It's being conducted by The Media Fund. Here's how it went for me:

Press 1 if you voted. Press 1 if you voted for Kaine. Press 1 if you're a female. Thank you.

Second point, regardless of the outcome of this election, I'm curious about possible legal action against the group that put together the most egregious of the robocalls -- the Kaine voice-splices. I received several of them over the weekend and I found them unbelievably offensive and downright scary (as someone who thinks that Kilgore would drive Virginia into the ground as the previous Republican governor).

I've seen plenty of dirty tricks in elections -- I used to work in Chicago politics. Still, even I was shocked by how low Kilgore and his supporters were willing to go.

Marc Fisher: 8:56--As you scan around the various reporting on why people voted as they did, you see lots of folks talking about finding the Kilgore campaign offensive.

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washingtonpost.com: Kaine Awaits Election Results

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Marc Fisher: 9:00--Welcome aboard to those just joining us at 9 o'clock. With Tim Kaine leading by 50-47 with three-quarters of the precincts reporting, Democratic rule of this rather Republican state apparently will continue for another four years. The other two statewide races are much closer, but Republicans Bill Bolling and Bob McDonnell are leading by a slight bit in their races for lieutenant governor and attorney general.

The results in the Washington area show a powerful boost for the Democrats, with Fairfax County so far going for Kaine by 60 percent of the vote. In the most highly contested House races, Democrats are carving out leads in almost every case. In District 67 in Fairfax, conservative Chris Craddock appears to be losing to Democrat Chuck Caputo in a harshly fought race to succeed Republican Gary Reese, whom Craddock ousted in this year's primary.

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washingtonpost.com: Commonwealth of Virginia/General Election

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Woodbridge, Va.: Looks like the District 52 race between Barg and Frederik will go to the wire. 150 vote difference with 57 percent reporting with Hilda Barg ahead.

Marc Fisher: 9:05--That's one of the tightest races on the board and it's been a doozy of a battle. Barg is a longtime office holder in Prince William, going up against a very conservative Republican, Jeff Frederick, who came under enormous fire from the environmental groups and some Prince William homeowner groups. This is one of those races that may tell us a lot about the direction of some of the new suburban communities where recently arrived voters will determine whether the county ends up voting more like a Fairfax or more like traditional exurban Virginia counties.

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Holden Beach, N.C.: Do you think that Kilgore's having Bush appear with him last night was a mistake?

Marc Fisher: 9:07--I thought it was a risky maneuver and had more of a downside than upside. Sure, it could rally your base, but in a state with an enormous swath of independents, why make a move that you know will alienate a lot of moderates?

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Marc Fisher: 9:08--The Associated Press has just called this election for Tim Kaine. The Washington Post is not yet making a projection in this race.

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Beltsville, Md.: If Va. goes Democrat again, could this mean trouble for Michael Steele and Robert Erlich in Maryland, a Dem state?

Marc Fisher: 9:09--Maryland and Virginia tend to go their own ways--after all, we have a Dem state with a GOP governor and a Repo state with a Dem governor. But a strong Kaine victory, along with other signs of Democratic strength, will unleash a torrent of chatter about how this is a shout against the Bush administration and one-party Republican rule. But be careful--it is equally true that Virginia has a very popular Democratic governor and the Republican candidate was unusually weak--never really developed much of a theme for his candidacy, avoided debates and much in the way of public appearances, and seemed very unsure of himself in his unscripted appearances.

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Manassas, Va.: Quick question ...

Compared with what you were doing on other election nights, what do you think about being here live chatting with an audience tonight? Do you enjoy this or do you wish you were at a victory party somewhere?

(BTW, I certainly appreciate you being here, even if I don't have cheap booze to share with you.)

Marc Fisher: 9:12--Good question. It is a curious turn of events--is being chained to a desk really covering the election night events? Well, so much of what passes for political news in our country takes place on the web and along the various information highways that this is indeed an act of journalism of some sort. You're right that being out at the event is always more exciting than being in the newsroom. But there's also a real electric feeling in any newsroom on an election night.

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Washington, D.C.: Is there any way they would release the names that people wrote in for governor? 1000 write-ins? This could make for highly entertaining post election reading!

Marc Fisher: 9:14--Some localities publish that, others just have it there for you to come take a look at if you wish. Many years ago, I visited some elections boards to look at write-ins and it is fun. I have in my time cast ballots for my children, my wife, the occasional cartoon character, and some fine figures from world history, including Churchill and Chairman Mao.

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Washington, D.C.: Hey Mark,

Thanks for the chat!

Help me out -- why are the reports on Lt. Gov. and Atty. General coming in so much slower? You'd think all votes from a precinct would be counted at the same time. No conspiracy theory here, just curious.

Marc Fisher: 9:16--The numbers I'm looking at don't show a major gap. There are always fewer voters in the down-ballot races than for the top spot. There are some folks who just show up to vote for governor and go home without looking at any of those other offices or referenda--all of which in Fairfax appear to be winning easily.

Del. Dave Albo wins by just a bit in Fairfax--the only Republican to win there among the closely contested races.

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Fairfax, Va. : What does the Va. House look like after this election?

Marc Fisher: 9:19--Probably a slight Democratic gain, maybe a couple of seats. The main thing to remember here is that most of the House seats are either uncontested or contested in name only. The dormancy of democracy at that level is beyond disturbing.

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Lansdowne, Va.: How about the Poisson/Black race? Why does Loudoun take so long to get their results in? This could be one of the biggest races of the night.

Marc Fisher: 9:23--The lack of Loudoun numbers is the mystery of the night. There are numbers--I've seen them here and there on the blogs--but they're not on the state's computer system or on the AP returns. Stand by and I'll try to get some definitive answers on this by the top of the hour.

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Woodbridge, Va.: District 52 update. Barg leads by 15 votes with 14 of 16 precincts and 87.5 percent reporting. WOW, that is close!

Marc Fisher: 9:24--That's one for the diehards to watch til the last vote comes in.

From the Post's reporter on the House races tonight, the estimable Chris Jenkins, this late update on the overall picture in the House:

"Too early to tell. Barg was winning by 15 votes as of the last refresh." The Democrats lost a seat in Southwest Virginia that they needed (Keister) and they weren't able to knock off Albo in Fairfax. No word on Dick Black (Loudoun) yet. So to pick up two the Democrats need to win Barg and Black." Many thanks, Chris. -

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Marc Fisher: 9:27--Spurts of cheering at Kaine headquarters, while at Kilgore's party, people are just milling about and no one's come out to talk to the crowd or to reporters.

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Silver Spring, Md.; formerly Falls Church: I was flipping through the local channels (4, 5, 7, 9) here about 20 mins. ago (just after 8:30), and found that none of them were running the standard crawls with election results. I guess that serving the public interest lost out this time? I know that NC8 has nonstop coverage, but as DIRECTV subscribers, we are out of that loop. You're all we've got, Marc!

Marc Fisher: 9:28--As we've seen with national and state elections since the cable and Internet revolutions, when the big networks and their affiliates can stick to their revenue-generating swill, they will always choose to do so. The up side of the new technology is that those who are interested have more information sources than ever before. The down side is that the casual viewer/voter is vastly less likely to have news put in front of his face. This is not good for the idea of an informed electorate.

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washingtonpost.com: 9:17 p.m. ET: Elections/Virginia Governor, 84 Percent

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Haymarket, Va.: I must be the lone Democrat supporter in Haymarket, Va. Well I supported Kaine in honor of Mark Warner, who I think is a very effective leader. Especially the ability to work with a Republican Senate and accomplish what he did without railroading folks like or president, my way or no way.

Plus ... Kilgore is equivalent to Gilmore: should have learn from the "No car tax" slogan. Widening 66. People are hip.

Marc Fisher: 9:30--That's similar to what quite a few disaffected Republicans have been saying, but it would only be fair to note that Kaine's plan for 66 is even more implausible. He actually proposes to widen the road only in one direction. As if people go to work and stay there, apparently forever.

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A Relieved Kaine Voter: I'm thrilled you're hosting this chat, as our local TV stations seem to have forgotten there were races to report on tonight. I understand not having a full night of coverage, a la the presidential election, but don't you think at least an hour of prime time coverage as the polls close, or results come back, might be warranted? Jim and Doreen did pop in to say that AP had called the race, but then just said, "More at 11." Frustrating.

Marc Fisher: 9:32--"More at 11" is nice, isn't it? I've always loved that phrase. Though personally I prefer "Film at 11." How come after all these years no one ever says "Video at 11."

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Fairfax County, Va.: How can the attorney general race be 50-50 right now? They are such extremely different candidates I was sure the electorate would break strongly one way or the other.

Do you think people are just voting by rote for their party's candidate, or what? It's a weird, little-covered contest.

Marc Fisher: 9:34--I'm with you--whoever wins for AG, the fault lies with the news media. This was a race with compelling personalities and a great story line--the NRA-endorsed Democrat against a Republican from Pat Robertson's law school. A huge ethics battle. And yet I never wrote a word about it and neither did many reporters around the state. Yes, the Post and other papers did profiles and our James Grimaldi did some investigative work on McDonnell's questionable campaign funding, but somehow this race never broke through the public consciousness. It may have much to do with the fact that few folks know what the Attorney General does.

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Arlington, Va.: With 84 percent, can't the Washington Post call the governor's race? I want your permission to break out the champagne!

Marc Fisher: Permission to uncork granted. The Post has called the race for Tim Kaine.

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McLean, Va.: Any word on the school bond?

Marc Fisher: 9:36-- Passes, overwhelmingly. That's the Fairfax school bond.

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Falls Church, Va.: What single factor, in your opinion, most hurt the campaign of Virginia Republican Governor candidate Jerry Kilgore?

Marc Fisher: 9:37--Some will say it was the weight of the Bush yoke. Some will say it was that Kilgore was a weak candidate with no theme. Some will say it was Kilgore's reluctance to show himself and debate. My take: Those death penalty ads backfired badly and cast him as a nasty candidate who had no positive message of his own.

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Chantilly, Va.: I'm a long time R that has not voted for a D in over 30 years. Yes, I was disgusted with the Kilgore ads, but also couldn't hack the "crazy kid" Chris Craddock running in the 67th District with his hate filled campaign. The Congressman Frank Wolf endorsement of Craddock was over the top.

Finally, even though they will deny it, this election is a minor mandate for the White House. Tonight I broke my streak and voted a D ticket, (except for Leslie the liberal of course!).

Do you think that this election will have some legs -- have a real impact on Capitol Hill and White House politics?

Marc Fisher: 9:40--Yes, despite my view, above, that this was Kilgore's to botch and he indeed botched it, I agree with those who will say that there is a message here for the president.

Kaine is ahead in both Loudoun and Prince William counties, and those are places where Kilgore should have won handily. If the edges of suburbia--the heart of Bush country--are voting Democratic (and they're not just doing so in the governor's race; even the down-ticket races are neck and neck there), then the president's party is in real trouble.

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Arlington, Va.: Marc,

If Leslie Byrne loses today for lieutenant governor, what are her chances against Jim Moran in 2006? With her statewide name recognition and being back in the public eye in the 8th, could she be the one to free us from the albatross around our necks?

Marc Fisher: 9:43--Byrne should have run against Moran last time. She could have won. Next time, she'd come in as--it now appears--a loser, and even though she's winning by a large margin inside the Beltway, she'd be tarnished.

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Fairfax County, Va.: Is it true the death penalty ads were from the same political team who did the ads that took down Max Cleland (badly injured Vietnam vet and U.S. senator who was successfully charged with being "unpatriotic")?

If so, I feel proud of my state's reaction to them.

Marc Fisher: 9:44--Yes, Scott Howell is the ad man who made the "Cleland loves Osama" spots and Kilgore's savage death penalty ads. So Virginians should be proud that they spurned a campaign that based its main assault on the opponent on the emotional power of the word Hitler and the images of people who had lost loved ones to murder.

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Arlington, Va.: Godwin's Law strikes again. Everybody knows if somebody uses Hitler in an argument then that person automatically loses. I guess Kilgore doesn't get out much.

Marc Fisher: 9:47--He won't be doing that again. That Hitler guy still packs a mean punch.

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Alexandria, Va.: Perhaps this will make you feel less odd about being at a computer to cover the election -- the victory photo in the AP story (or at least the one I've seen so far) consists of the entire Kaine family looking excitedly at a computer screen as they learn the results. Governor-Elect Kaine is even pointing at the screen like one of those dads on the box for a family-friendly board game of years past. The photo's totally posed -- but totally about the Internet, not TV. Times are changing.

Marc Fisher: 9:47--Indeed. Future victory parties on election nights will consist of vast ballrooms filled with cubicles, each equipped with web access, so supporters can celebrate by blogging to their closest friends.

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Alexandria, Va.: "revenue-generating swill"?

Tell us what you really think, Marc.

Marc Fisher: 9:48--Hey, you're here instead of watching The Office, right?

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washingtonpost.com: Kaine Defeats Kilgore in Va. Gubernatorial Race (Post, Nov. 8, 9:38 p.m. ET)

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Northern Virginia (Kaine Country): Looks like we almost hit the magic 40 percent turnout mark. Is this about the number you expected or does this seem high??

GREAT WORK TONIGHT!

Marc Fisher: 9:51--Early reports indicate a good but not very unusual turnout for an off year election. We'll have more on that later and in the morning paper.

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washingtonpost.com: Audio Report From Post's Carol Morello and Michelle Boorstein in Richmond

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Gaithersburg, Md.: Any word on Maryland results? Only thing on the Maryland results page is Annapolis Mayor.

Marc Fisher: 9:52--I see results in Gaithersburg and Annapolis but nothing from Bowie or College Park, both of which have interesting ballot questions on whether to increase or establish local police forces. I will check on that, and the continuing mysteries of Loudoun (though some sketchy reports put challenger David Poisson ahead of longtime GOP Del. Dick Black in partial results) and come back to you all in 10 minutes. Thanks for hanging on and keep those comments and questions coming....

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Marc Fisher: 10:00--Welcome, celebrants and mopers alike, to the fourth hour of tonight's election extravaganza. If you like big, against the grain victories, you've got it tonight in the Tim Kaine win for governor. If you like close races, have a gander at the other statewide Virginia votes. If you like fascinating new trends, check out the outer suburbs and their embrace of Tim Kaine, a real live Democrat. If you like voters standing tall against nasty campaigning, look at how the gay-bashing Republican delegate candidates went down to defeat: Chris Craddock, Ron Grignol, and quite possibly, in the big potential upset of the night, Dick Black, perhaps the most colorful member of the Virginia House. The numbers out of Loudoun are late, but the Post's Michael Laris says that's often the case, and Laris reports that Delegate Black's supporters left the county elections office silent and dejected not long ago. Still not enough numbers to call that race, but if Democrat David Poisson pulls it out, that's the one Democrats statewide will be crowing about tomorrow.

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Alexandria, Va.: Marc,

I find your sudden desire to bash one particular candidate or the other rather distasteful.

Your bashing of Kilgore ensures that this blog will now be only Kaine supporters -- which, it probably was anyway due to your bias.

Still, it would have been nice to have a discussion like this with an actual analyst, not a partisan like you.

And for the record, those Cleland ads were anything but 'Cleland loves Osama.' They focused exclusively on Cleland's 6 votes against the creation of DHS. It was a legitimate issue, and the people of Georgia agreed.

Marc Fisher: 10:07--Sorry you feel that way. My sense from the campaigns is that they think I've been tougher on Kaine than on Kilgore this fall, but I do try to be an equal opportunity critic, and my view, for what it's worth, is that neither ran an impressive campaign.

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Swill: Are we not watching The Office, or are we not watching Commander in Chief?

Marc Fisher: 10:09--Film at 10?

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22304: Who said anything about not watching The Office? Can you believe Michael hooked up with his boss?

Now that the election's over, here's a more intriguing question: Should Pam and Jim ever kiss?

Marc Fisher: 10:09--How soon they move on. Hey, there are elections that haven't been called yet!

Speaking of which, some Maryland results for those who've been asking: Rockville kept the status quo for mayor and will now have its first majority female council in decades. Bowie said yes to setting up a city police force. No word yet on College Park expanding its police authority.

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Arlington, Va.: Marc,

Why is Virginia so weird when it comes to when it holds statewide elections? The odd year after the presidential, and the governor cannot succeed himself? Turnout is terrible and we get a lame duck as soon as he is elected.

Why not give the next governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general a five-year term so that they are up in 2010, and then revert back to four-year terms (2014, 2018, etc.)? Why not at least let the governor run for reelection for a second term? That way he's held accountable (Gilmore) or he gets another four years if he does a great job (Warner).

I've lived here all of four years, and already I see just how screwed up the Commonwealth is.

Marc Fisher: 10:12--Although just about everyone agrees with you on this, don't look for it to change. Governors of both parties know that the one-term limit is bad for the state, and when they're speaking privately, many legislators say the same thing, but it won't be changed because that would shift power from the legislature to the executive and no one in the House or Senate cares to do that.

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Falls Church, Va.: I would like to second the previous posts about the importance of voting. My husband was naturalized in 1990 and myself in 1995. We always vote, no matter what and take our vote very seriously. If there are bond measures, we study them ahead of time. A friend that rides with me to work in the morning was not planning on voting today. I told him that if he did not vote and Kaine lost, I would harass him every day for at least a month because I really believe that every vote counts! So he voted after all.

My question is, do you know if there are studies that have looked at the percent of naturalized Americans that vote vs. American-born? All my naturalized friends from a variety of different countries take their voter responsibilities very seriously. And I often wonder if this is a national trend.

Marc Fisher: 10:14--Yes, naturalized citizens generally show a greater commitment to civic duty than do native-born Americans, and that's logical since so many newcomers arrive here from places where they were deprived of freedoms. That often makes them appreciate what we have here a bit more keenly.

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Gaithersburg, Md. and Rockville, Md.: I live in Gaithersburg, work in Rockville, and have aging parents in Rockville. What gives with their results? Gaithersburg was computerized, so how long does it take to count/recount entries into a database? I don't know what Rockville does, but still ...

Marc Fisher: 10:14--Polls in some Maryland jurisdictions didn't close til 9, so it's only fair to give them a bit more time.

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Lansdowne, Va.: According to the Richmond Times Dispatch Web site, the AP reports Poisson with 4429 votes to Black's 3959 (53/47). No word as to number of precincts.

Marc Fisher: The state site is now reporting that with 75 percent of precincts in, Poisson is beating Dick Black by 53-46--clearly the upset of the night.

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Arlington, Va.: Roanoke only has 13 of 39 precincts reporting. Is that the largest place with votes not yet reported, perhaps along with 15 precincts from Loudon County?

Marc Fisher: 10:16--Those Loudoun numbers are now pouring in. Kaine over Kilgore 51-46, Leslie Byrne edging Bill Bolling 50-49 and the sole Republican victor there, Bob McDonnell over Creigh Deeds 50-49. All of those with 72 percent of the precincts reporting.

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19th & K St., NW, D.C.: One question re: the Dem numbers from Loudon County.

I know that we've assumed that exurbs would go Republican, as part of a national trend and certainly a D.C.-area trend. But does it seem possible that as housing in Arlington/Alexandria/Fairfax becomes more expensive, you are seeing young people normally populating these Dem areas forced to move further out? Sounds like the combination of that and concerns about Kilgore's campaign and the Bush connections may've made a difference here. But it seems like the demographic shift may be ahead of our assumptions from even a couple years ago.

Marc Fisher: 10:19--Excellent point, and this is precisely the fear that Rep. Tom Davis has expressed about building new townhouse communities at Metro stations in Fairfax. He doesn't like to say this in public, but he has told people that he sees those developments as Democrat magnets, and your analysis of the Loudoun vote fits that theory. So it may be that the edge of sprawl may include more liberal-leaning voters than we've seen in the past, courtesy of the soaring real estate prices pushing people further away from the city.

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washingtonpost.com: Maryland Elections 2005

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Anonymous: Did you catch these Fairfax numbers? My god ...

The Hotline

There will be plenty of Monday-morning QB'ing of Virginia GOV, but one of the lessons for the GOP has to be that regardless of your margins and turnout downstate, you have to at least be competitive in Fairfax Co. to win statewide.

With all but 5 of Fairfax Co's 228 precincts reporting, Kilgore is holding steady at 38 percent to Kaine's 60 percent. Kaine's margin in Fairfax will surely be the highest any GOV candidate has registered in the county in modern Virginia political history.

Marc Fisher: 10:20-- Actually, the meaning of the Fairfax numbers is potentially even deeper than that--if it's fair to conclude that Tim Kaine didn't exactly wow anyone as a personality, and that his winning margin came from a powerful boost in northern Virginia, this adds to the mounting evidence that northern Virginia will one day pull its weight politically in the state. While the rest of the state will likely always be more tuned in to state politics, NoVa's political power will eventually catch up to its economic prowess, and we're seeing some evidence of that tonight.

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Falls Church, Va.: I think it's hilarious that someone is now saying that you're "bashing" Kilgore because he lost and you're speculating about why he lost.

You haven't said he's a horrible person. But he undeniably ran an amazingly negative campaign.

BTW, to the person defending the odious ads against Cleland ... what's your defense against Howell's infamous "Black Hands" ads? Race-baiting, anyone? How anyone -- Republican, Democratic, or whoever -- could defend Scott Howell's tactics is beyond me.

Marc Fisher: 10:23--There's remarkably little to bash Kilgore with because he was such a minor figure in his own campaign. He never articulated a strong message or got his personality across to voters. His voice was little heard, his priorities little known.

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washingtonpost.com: 10:06 p.m. ET: Elections/Virginia Governor, 95 Percent

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Vienna, Va.: The verdict all around seems to be that Kilgore's negative campaign backfired. How does this compare with how the negative 2004 presidential campaign (on both sides) fared? Why are we seeing a different reaction from the public now?

Marc Fisher: 10:25--A gubernatorial race carries different expectations from a presidential campaign. Because the state is a more manageable size, people expect to have the sense that they know the candidates more intimately than they might in a presidential election, where everyone expects the race to be conducted almost entirely on TV. And because the local nature of the contest brings with it an expectation of intimacy, nasty tactics seem magnified, as if your neighbor did something impolite.

By the way, Jon Corzine won the governor's race in Jersey, Bloomberg was reelected mayor in New York and Texas voters banned same-sex marriage.

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Marc Fisher: 10:29--Here we are deep into the vote count and I'm surprised to report that Virginia's political blogs are remarkably silent. I just checked in with 15 of them and only a couple are posting much at all tonight. Even Chad Dotson's Commonwealth Conservative, for my money one of the best on the board, went quiet at 8:21 tonight. There's a bit of gloating here and there, but even Raising Kaine, the most vehement of the Kaine sites, is just reporting numbers, virtually without commentary.

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North Bethesda, Md.: How many seats the Democrats pick up in the Virginia State Legislature?

Marc Fisher: 10:33--Kilgore is about to concede. It looks like it might only be a one seat pickup, as Hilda Barg is falling behind to Jeff Frederick in Prince William.

It's 51-49 with 94 percent reporting.

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Marc Fisher: 10:44--A gracious concession speech by Jerry Kilgore, though he did maintain that Virginia someday will have a governor named Kilgore. Cue the Terry Kilgore for Governor campaign song.

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Back from Blogville: Actually, another interesting House upset may be pro-choice Republican (running as Indy) Katherine Waddell defeating anti-gay, anti-abortion Brad Marrs in the 68th.

That's a STUNNING result. Coupled with the David Poisson victory, I wouldn't call it a major trend ... but I think it will have an impact in moderating the right wing extremism of the Virginia House. What do you think?

Marc Fisher: 10:44--Marrs appears to have lost by about 40 votes. And that means that all four House candidates who appealed to anti-gay sentiments lost--Marrs, Dick Black, Chris Craddock and Ron Grignol. That says something.

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Blogland, USA: Marc,

That's because the vast majority of Virginia political bloggers on both sides of the aisle are very devoted activists. Posting on the Dem sites has been very light all day because most regular Democratic bloggers have been working at polling locations all day ... and are now joyously enjoying a MAJOR victory! Expect lots of blogging tomorrow ... but tonight is for partying!

Marc Fisher: 10:46--Fair enough.

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Falls Church, Va.: With Leslie Byrne seemingly losing, will she or retiring Governor Mark Warner challenge Congressman Jim Moran? Or will she bide her time for another race, while Warner pursues either national ambitions or a U.S. Senate seat?

Marc Fisher: 10:47--Certainly not Warner. He has bigger fish to fry. Byrne might do it, but after last year, Jim Moran seems to be more secure in his seat than he has been in several years.

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Dumfries, Va.: Hilda Barg ran a LOUSY campaign. I'm a Democrat, but I honestly think she deserved to lose. She had PLENTY of money, but she just couldn't aggressively run a campaign. With her name recognition and growing Democratic strength in that district -- and with an opponent tied to Tom DeLay -- she should have won by at least 2-4 percentage points over Frederick.

Frederick proved that an unknown but incredibly hardworking young candidate could beat an incumbent in this district by aggressively knocking on doors and running a strong grassroots campaign. The Democrats recruited Barg thinking she would win just on name recognition, even though they knew she was far too infirm to run an actual door-to-door campaign. It's too bad -- we should have picked up this seat.

Marc Fisher: 10:49--Given that candidates very much like Frederick lost throughout northern Virginia, you have a good argument. And the same Democratic interests and advocacy groups that campaigned hard against Black and Craddock put the spotlight on Frederick, but Barg gave voters little positive reason to choose her. And her experience on the county board left her with many enemies from years and years of development battles.

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No, Kilgore's Kids, Not His Brother: Didn't he refer to his kids just before saying there will be SOMEDAY a Kilgore governor and then look down at them again? I thought he was saying something along the lines of, "These are great kids coming up. You'll hear from them in years to come.

Marc Fisher: 10:50--Wasn't entirely clear. I thought he looked down at his daughter only a couple of beats after making the comment, which struck me as being more about his brother. But given that family's powerful commitment to politics, he could have meant his mom.

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Charlottesville, Va.: Should not Jerry Kilgore have congratulated Governor-elect Kaine at the beginning of his concession speech?

Marc Fisher: 10:52--Would have been the sporting thing to do. But he chose instead to list the folks he was grateful to. You don't find too many gentlemen in that trade these days.

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Fredericksburg, Va.: Marc,

Can you give me your thoughts on why Kaine has clearly won and why the other two Democrats running are neck and neck, even losing to their Republican opponents?

Marc Fisher: 10:53--If it were just Kaine winning and Byrne losing, you could say it was simply a matter of personalities--the more polarizing figures alienated too many people and lost. But throw in the attorney general race and the calculus changes. There, arguably the more polarizing candidate appears to be winning--McDonnell. So if I had to pick one factor, I'd say it's Kilgore's failure to present a strong positive argument and vision, and his lack of a reason why Virginians who are happy with Mark Warner should return to the same Republicans who mucked up the state's finances under Gov. Gilmore.

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Vienna, Va.: Marc:

Watching the campaign ads this year, I felt that many of the Democrats running for office were far more aggressive in defending themselves against Republican attacks, as compared to what happened in 2004 (hello, John Kerry) and running negative ads of their own. Most of those candidates won tonight. Did you notice such a change and do you think it offers a blueprint for Democratic success elsewhere in 2006?

Marc Fisher: 10:57--No, I don't think Kaine's defense ads were especially effective. Yes, he quickly jumped on the Kilgore death penalty ads and presented his (to my mind, somewhat confused) explanation of his own views. But I think the winning edge was more the contrast between Kilgore's nasty attacks and Kaine's apparent honesty than any particularly good strategy or marketing on the Dems' part. The Dems had Warner's success to build on, and Kaine effectively portrayed himself as a centrist, though one without a whole lot of vision. There is a lesson for Democrats there: Presenting themselves as, counter intuitively, the party that manages the economy better may do them a whole lot more good than their usual appeals to lots of little interest groups.

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Alexandria, Va.: I have a theory that "culture wars" are really between people exposed to people of different races, religions, etc., who would live in cities, vs. people from small towns and rural areas, who don't understand other viewpoints as well.

If my theory is valid, Fairfax County's increasing diversity could be swinging more people to the Blue. Do you think that might be the case?

Marc Fisher: 10:59--That fits well with Tom Davis' opposition to the MetroWest development and the notion that dense communities attract Democrats.

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Oakton, Va.: Marc,

Thanks for the chat tonight. One observation, from someone who is neither a Dem nor a Rep -- I belong to the "Hold-Your-Nose-And-Vote Party" -- for those who are looking at the Virginia results as a referendum on Bush. Don't read too much into the results. You nailed it Marc: Kilgore ran a non-campaign that relied on fear and ignorance and that underestimated the voting power of NoVa. Period.

No one voted for Kaine because they disagree with the Iraq War, etc.

Marc Fisher: 11:00--Well, I'm sure some folks were motivated to go out and cast a ballot against the powers that be in Washington, even though this is a remote way to do that. But generally, I agree with you--Kilgore lost this race, and it was his to win. But to do so, he needed to do more than offer a generic anti-tax appeal and back it up with attacks on his opponents' values. I spent several hours with Kilgore, asking him dozens of questions, and I couldn't tell you what his major theme or focus would have been if he'd been elected.

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washingtonpost.com: Kaine Wins in Va. Gubernatorial Race (Post, Nov. 8, 10:16 p.m. ET)

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Clifton, Va.: Marc, the real story locally is how Democratic Fairfax County is becoming. People say it's always been liberal, but that's not really true -- especially of western Fairfax. Last year, Kerry became the first Democrat to win the county in a presidential election in decades. Now at least two -- maybe more -- traditionally Republican seats in the House of Delegates were won by Democrats. And look at Kaine's margin in Fairfax City I think it is more than half of his statewide margin. Even my right wing precinct in Clifton almost went for Kaine and there's even a new "Democratic Women of Clifton" organization with more than 100 members. Who'd have thought!

Marc Fisher: 11:01--Tim Kaine victory speech about to begin. Back with you after it ends.

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Vienna, Va.: So we're not going to know the attorney general winner for a few days, are we? It's close enough to be decided by the absentees.

Marc Fisher: 11:15--Gov. Warner just put down his marker on that question and declared that whatever the GOP may say, that race is not yet over. McDonnell is up by 50.14 to 49.77 with about 98 percent of precincts reporting. But the number of absentee ballots is only about 1500 and the margin separating the candidates is more like 6,000, so a betting man would have to go with McDonnell at this point.

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Arlington, Va.: It's hard to see how this is as anything but a status-quo election. If I were a Democrat, I'd be thrilled for Kaine, but now worried about four years from now with the LG and AG defeats. Meanwhile, Republicans have to figure out how to resolve intraparty squabbles and have an agenda that at least competes in statewide elections in Northern Virginia. It's clear than guns and the death penalty don't do enough.

Marc Fisher: 11:17--It does seem that the easy Republican formula of opposition to taxes and a hard line on social issues is not going to be enough in a state with a knowledge based economy and deep problems in transportation. That said, however, Virginians embrace a conservative message that has a vision and is backed up with competence; see Allen, George.

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Washington, D.C.: How does the Kaine victory compare to Warner's percentages four years ago?

Marc Fisher: 11:19--Warner beat Mark Earley 52-47, extremely similar numbers to tonight. The popular vote was 994,000 to 893,000 four years ago; tonight, it's 990,000 to 884,000, so Kaine actually won by a slightly wider margin.

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Brandermill, Va.: Marc, hit "refresh." Commonwealth Conservative has posted all night.

Marc Fisher: 11:22--Right you are. My bad. Apologies to all concerned.

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washingtonpost.com: Full Coveage

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Spotsylvania, Va.: Reading your Washington Post results, all three Democrats won in NOVA. Why is it that voters in the other parts of the state would vote for Kaine and then switch to the Republicans for AG and LG?

My thought is that Kilgore's attempt to divert the attention from REAL issues like managing the state budget and transportation to non-issues like the death penalty really hurt him and the end defeated him.

Do you think that the Kilgore campaign focus and trying to make non-issues issues was self-defeating?

One last question -- Mark Warner is the best governor I have ever lived under from Ga., Tenn., Fla., in my 40 years. What are his chances now in the national arena?

Marc Fisher: 11:23--I think you hit it squarely on the head.

As for Warner's chances nationally, it will be interesting to see. On paper, he has many of the qualities that Democrats will be looking for--business background, Southern state, managerial success, popularity, centrism, ease with people on both sides of the cultural divide. There is still an awkwardness about his personal manner and he's not a wizard with words or speaking, but he has a winning personality and he will be a significant factor in '08.

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Northern Virginia: I don't know where I would have been without you this Election Day evening. Your 4-hour stint (and counting) has been invaluable and has been my only outside source of live thoughts about the events unfolding.

With your work this evening you have tied the baby panda video in my personal "best of washingtonpost.com" sweepstakes. Thank you very much.

Marc Fisher: 11:26--Goodness, that's kind of you. It's been a lot of fun. I'd stay on, but it doesn't look like we're going to learn anything more tonight, unless McDonnell wants to claim victory, which might happen in an hour or so--I'm just guessing there. McDonnell's margin in the AG race has slipped down to 4,000 from 6,000 in the last 15 minutes.

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Marc Fisher: 11:29--That's going to kick things in the head for tonight, faithful ones. I'll be back in just 12 hours or so, at noon, for an election wrapup. So mull the results and come on back for more. Thanks for coming along and drive safely.

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