Michael Fix, vice president and director of studies at the Migration Policy Institute, was online Thursday, Nov. 3, at noon ET to examine immigration as a campaign issue in the Virginia gubernatorial election.
Fix's work focuses on immigrant integration, citizenship policy, immigrant children and families, the education of immigrant students, the effect of welfare reform on immigrants and the impact of immigrants on the United States' labor force. Fix, who is an attorney, previously served as a Principal Research Associate at the Urban Institute, where he directed the Immigration Studies Program from 1998 through 2004. Throughout the course of his career at the Urban Institute, his research focused on immigrants and integration, regulatory reform, federalism, race, and the measurement of discrimination.
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Background: Virginia is home to more than 200,000 illegal immigrants, up 50,000 from 1996, according to the Pew Hispanic Center. The General Assembly has passed several laws that would limit illegal immigrants' access to state services. This summer, the Northern Virginia town of Herndon approved creation of a publicly funded center for day laborers, some of whom may be in the country illegally. More coverage
The Debate: Republican gubernatorial candidate Jerry W. Kilgore has supported efforts to cut off public services for illegal immigrants. Last month, he said public funds should not be used for the Herndon center. Democratic candidate Timothy M. Kaine called such an approach "mean-spirited" and said it was the federal government's responsibility to enforce immigration laws.
The Race: The state's next governor, who will be elected Nov. 8, might sign into law or veto bills that affect illegal immigrants in Virginia.
washingtonpost.com Video: Immigration Issue Heats up in Herndon
From The Post:
Campaign Journal
Virginia Elections Coverage
The transcript follows.
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Michael Fix: Hello to all and thanks for joining. I am Michael Fix, the Vice President of the Migration Policy Institute, a private non-partisan think tank dedicated to migration issues -- the only one of its kind in the U.S. With me today is Marc Rosenblum, a visiting scholar from the University of New Orleans and an expert on immigration policy. We'll try to do our best with your questions about the Virginia campaign and the larger immigration policy context within which it is taking place.
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Woodbridge, Va.: Mr. Fix, I am an immigrant from El Salvador that came to the USA in 1981 as a teenager. I lived in the northern Virginia area since then, and I've live through lots of changes with respect to the influence from other cultures in the community. I love this country, is my home now and that of my children. I just don't understand why immigration is a very sticking point always during elections? I know that with Home Land Security in place, and with the imminent treat of an attack within our borders, we need to be watchful of what our law can and can't do for immigrants. But with all the resources that government officials have at their disposal, could we be better able to identify those individuals that are a real treat, and not target the ones that are here to make an honest living. Thank you.
Michael Fix: This is a very good question. First, the Virginia election may not be typical of elections in all times and places in the US. In fact the other major gubernatorial campaign that is now taking place in New Jersey between Senator Corzine and Marc Forster, the Republican has not raised the immigration issue -- despite the fact that New Jersey accounts has twice the share of illegal immigrants as Va.
As to singling out those who are a threat, current proposed Senate legislation would try to do just that by introducing a guest worker program and regularizing the status of those who are here in unauthorized status. Those who participate would be thoroughly screened to ensure that they were not security risks. The president's proposal is in the same spirit.
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Fairfax, Va.: In 2008, assuming neither Warner nor Allen is running, will the growth of Northern Virginia change the balance of politics to the point where Virginia is no longer a gimmie for the GOP?
Michael Fix: We'll focus on immigration related demographic changes and leave out other complicating factors. At first blush it seems that VA is not a gimmee in any case for the Republicans. Second Virginia has been one of the fastest growing states in terms of immigrants in the US. During the 90's the immigrant population grew by over 80 percent compared to the US as a whole where it grew by roughly 50%. Whether this growth translates into votes is another thing that depends on voter registration rates (low historically for Hispanics), voting rates (low historically for Asians), the share of legal immigrants who naturalize (about 150,000 according to our recent analyses), and of course the share of the newcomer populations that is undocumented. Finally, neither Asian nor Hispanic immigrants vote *overwhelmingly* Democratic.
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Springfield, Va.: Just a comment -- The other night I saw a commercial on cable in which Tim Kaine was apparently endorsed by a leader of the local Hispanic community -- the entire commercial was in Spanish so I didn't understand exactly what was being said. Ironically, it was immediately followed by the Kilgore ad against helping illegal immigrants. It seems like the two candidates couldn't be further apart on this issue.
Michael Fix: They do differ on these issues but their differences are we think exaggerated by how the two camps are playing the issues. As it turns out Kaine has staked out quite moderate middle of the road positions to our eye on immigration issues -- he supported restrictions on giving illegal immigrants drivers licenses, for screening eligibility for welfare. His position on in state tuition was more circumscribed than that taken by many who promote it and he has come out against providing government contracts to employers who hire the undocumented. He has not used illegal immigration in his campaign as the kind of defining issue that Kilgore has.
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Richmond, Va.: Do you feel that the current Republican campaign against "illegal" immigration is an attempt to try to stir something (anything) against the Democrats or is there a REAL public problem with illegal immigration in Virginia? Is there a public perception that illegal immigration is a big problem in Virginia?
Michael Fix: A September poll by the Washington Post of registered VA voters suggests that many do find the issue fairly important -- 49 percent of respondents said the issue is "very" important. Still it ranked 7th out of 8 issues offered in importance (others included taxes, jobs, etc.) 6 percent of respondents thought it was the most important issue.
From a demographic perspective roughly 28 percent of Va's foreign born population is estimated to be undocumented -- roughly the same as the national share. That amounts to about 2.3 percent of all Virginians.
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washingtonpost.com: Poll Shows Kilgore Ahead of Kaine in Va. (Post, Sept. 11)
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washingtonpost.com: Full Poll Results
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Arlington, Va.: Given the enormous strain on tax revenues caused by illegal immigrants, are you surprised that voters in Northern Virginia, where tax dollars are needed for things like road construction, aren't more enthusiastic about Kilgore?
Michael Fix: You do and do not have a point. On the one hand undocumented immigrants are very heavily engaged in the labor market. The best estimates are that over 90 percent of unauthorized immigrant males work. At the same time for decades undocumented immigrants have been barred from virtually all public benefit programs with the exception of emergency medicaid. In addition it is an often overlooked fact that even the undocumented pay substantial taxes -- real estate taxes, sales taxes, license fees, and in many instances payroll and social security taxes. The Social Security Administration has estimated that unauthorized immigrants contribute $6 - 7 billion in Social security funds that they will be unable to claim.
That said, because of low educations and low incomes, studies that are now several years old find that undocumented immigrants impose a net fiscal cost on the jurisdictions within which they live -- largely as a result of school expenditures. Of course these results do not take into account gains to productivity, consumer savings etc. that might be generated by undocumented workers.
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Etlan, Va.: I have heard nothing from Mr. Kilgore about what he intends to do about localities building day labor sites. I know he says he is against any public money being used for them but does he intend to go as far as attempt to block localities from building such facilities? Or does the State have no jurisdiction over such matters anyway and it is just so much campaign rhetoric.
Michael Fix: It is our sense that the Republican leadership will need to seek state legislation to bar localities from supporting building day labor centers.
One state did so in 2005 -- Arizona.
One interesting question is what share of users of day labor centers are in fact undocumented. According to our analyses of 8.6 million low wage immigrant workers in the US 60 percent were legal immigrants or citizens.
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Fairfax, Va.: Does someone there have more recent poll figures, I would like to see how the polls have changed since September.
washingtonpost.com: : Washington Post Poll - Late October: Kaine Inches Ahead In Va. Race, Poll Finds (Post, Oct. 30)
Full Poll Results
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Washington, D.C.: Recently there were figures published quantifying the amount of money that illegal immigrants contribute to the U.S. economy on the whole; and from my recollection, it was a fairly substantial amount.
There may not be a direct correlation, but do you think the growth of the illegal immigrant population has had a positive effect on the growth in Virginia's economy? Also, would strengthening anti-illegal immigrant legislation have a negative effect on Virginia's economy, or the rate of development?
Michael Fix: We don't know the answer to this question for sure but According to the August 30 Washington Business Journal Northern VA continues to have one of the lowest unemployment rates in the nation -- to the degree that employers are finding it difficult to fill jobs.
While concerns about illegal immigration are both legitimate and understandable one worry would be that like CA in the mid 1990s VA will assume an image as anti immigrant that will lead skilled and legal immigrants to settle elsewhere in the future.
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Arlington, Va.: If Kilgore wins, do you think politicians in other areas will interpret that as a sign that vocally opposing illegal immigration is a good way to get votes?
Michael Fix: The short answer is yes in the way that Jim Gilmore's car tax reduction set a sub agenda for the national republican party.
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Vienna, Va.: Here in Northern Va., I just really don't get the sense that there is all that much animosity towards immigrant labor -- illegal or not. The fact is, they seem to be appreciated for filling in the low wage jobs native born citizens won't take. This makes me wonder -- are anti-immigration battles really an attempt to create code-talk concern amongst rural white voters over cultural and racial issues?
Michael Fix: One of the striking features of the immigrant population in Virginia is its distribution -- two thirds of immigrant live in No VA while only a quarter of the total state population lives there. It could well be the case that much of the resistance comes from counties where the foreign born population is small.
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Michael Fix: Marc Rosenblum and Michael Fix thank you for your tough, probing questions and suggest that you might want to visit the MPI Web site and our Migration Information Source for more information: http://www.migrationpolicy.org/ and http://www.migrationinformation.org/.
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