Explosions Rock Jordan Hotels

Jon B. Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, will be online Thursday, Nov. 10, at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest on the hotel bombings in Amman, Jordan.

Read more: Bombings Kill More Than 50 At Three Hotels In Jordan , ( Washington Post, Nov. 10, 2005 )

The transcript follows.

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Washington, D.C.: Before the bombs exploded in Jordan, the main talk out of the Middle East was the joint U.S./Iraqi counter-offensive on the Syrian border to sweep and clear insurgents. Is there a perception that the Jordan bombings are a direct result of that operation?

Jon B. Alterman: In my view, this has much more to do with issues in Jordan. The king was about to roll out a national agenda that would move the country more firmly in a pro-Western, globalized direction, and he was about to see Israeli officials.

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Arlington, Va.: Have there been many previous attacks or attempts by al Qaeda in Jordan? How big of a presence do they have there?

Jon B. Alterman: Abu Musab al-Zarqawi takes his name from his hometown, of Zarqa, just outside Amman. There have been significant terror plots foiled in Jordan, including a rather spectacular one to bomb 5-star hotels on the eve of the millennium. What was unusual about last night's events wasn't their novelty, but their success from the point of view of the perpetrators.

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Wheaton, Md.: Lets be honest. The average citizen of Jordan celebrates when such attacks occur in Israel or Europe. Do you think this will now change?

Jon B. Alterman: Honestly, I don't think that's true. I think the average Jordanian shrugs, and acknowledges his or her grievances with both sides. That being said, from my own experience living in Egypt in the early 1990s (when there was heightened terrorist activity), lots of nationals dying turns the public against the perpetrators.

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Bratislava, Slovakia: Why did choose the al-Qaeda militants choose Jordan as the location of their attacks?

Jon B. Alterman: Partly, it's a question of opportunity. They seek hard targets, not soft ones. Jordanian hotels have less security than U.S. military bases in Iraq, so they're more attractive targets. Also, many of the folks in al-Qaeda have a visceral hatred of King Abdullah, for many of the same reasons that he is admired in the West.

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China: Why did Al Qaeda strike Jordan? Was it because Zarqarwi had despair towards his expelling country which might work close with the U.S.? Also what's the likelihood of other Arab Gulf countries being affected?

Jon B. Alterman: I think my last answer covered the first question here. As for the second, I don't think that this attack affects other Arab countries in a direct way, but it reminds them of the importance of persistent vigilance on terrorist threats.

The strange thing about terrorism is that it comes at times of complete normalcy. Over time, it makes people expect (or fear) terrorist acts in times of normalcy, and it makes even normal times seem abnormal. I would expect a chill to spread over hotels, shopping malls, and other places throughout the region.

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Alexandria, Va.: How will this affect Jordan's relationship with the U.S., if at all? How strong of an ally is Jordan on terrorism?

Jon B. Alterman: I don't think this will affect our bilateral relationship. We work very, very closely with the Jordanians, and that is going to continue.

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Rockville, Md.: I just saw a report on people from Iraq taking vacations in Jordan. Is there a chance that the wedding was one that would have been in Iraq in normal times? I understand that no "westerners" were there. Were they Jewish?

Jon B. Alterman: I believe the wedding was between Jordanians. Many upper-class weddings in the Arab world take place in 5-star hotels, and I expect this was one of them. To the terrorists, however, the hotels themselves are "dens of iniquity." Alcohol, prostitution, and cavorting with perceived "enemies of Islam."

In the 1960s, the Egyptian writer Sayyid Qutb championed the idea that rulers in the region who don't rule Islamically cease to be Muslim and are subject to revolt. My bet is that the perpetrators dehumanized these upper-class celebrants in a similar way.

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Arlington, Va.: Since a vast number of Palestinians live in Jordan--and may or may not have been victims of yesterday's attacks--do you think this will sway some of that group's anti-Western sentiment that showed its face leading up to the latest conflict in Iraq?

Jon B. Alterman: You're right, about 60% of Jordan's population is ethnically Palestinian (which is to say, at some point in the last century they were migrants from the West Bank of the Jordan River). Palestinians have many gripes about how Jordan works -- how they are disadvantaged in employment, voting and education, etc. As a group, though, Palestinians seem to me to be more Western oriented than many groups in Jordan. It is among the East Bankers that you see a longing for Bedouin traditions.

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Munich, Germany: What percentage of the foreign terrorists fighting on behalf of the Iraq insurgency are from Jordan?

My first thought is that most Jordanians will condemn the attacks, which should decrease the urge of many young Jordanians to fight with and die for al Qaedi in Iraq or elsewhere.

What were the dynamics of terrorist recruitment from Saudi Arabia after the attacks in Saudi Arabia? Do you see any parallels in this respect between Jordan and Saudi Arabia?

Jon B. Alterman: We often don't know who the foreign insurgents are until they're dead. I've seen all kinds of estimates, and I don't trust any of them, particularly. I haven't seen one that gives Jordanians an especially large role, however.

I agree that this attack will likely draw Jordanians together as Jordanians, and further marginalize the jihadis.

The Saudi role among foreign fighters in Iraq is the hardest to discern, and the one about which there is the greatest controversy. I've seen numbers that put them above half of foreign fighters, as well as in the low double digits. Saudi Arabia is a remarkably different country than Jordan, however, and I don't see many parallels.

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Washington, D.C.: Are you encouraged to see Jordanians demonstrating against the perpetrators of these terrorist acts? Obviously they aren't American support rallies, but is it a sign that the silent majority of people in the Middle East won't stand to see their neighbors killed by these maniacs?

Jon B. Alterman: It's what I'd expect, quite honestly, and I don't think this majority is so silent. The real question is how the king moves from these actions to build his support. There's an interesting article on the Economist Web site this morning that argues that the attacks are a reminder of how King Abdullah is out of touch with many Jordanians. The worst-case scenario may be that people turn away from the perpetrators of these acts, but turn away from the government as well.

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Arlington, Va.: I would have thought that Palestinians in Jordan would be angered by the treaty in '94. Or is that simply too long ago? If, like you said, the majority of this population enjoy a more westernized lifestyle, does this mean that terrorism of this nature is motivated less and less by the conflict with Israel? What happens to the next country to follow Egypt and Jordan? Are they likely to get the same attention?

Jon B. Alterman: In my judgment, these kinds of actions are committed by people who are influenced not only by identity, but also issues of class, intellectual orientation, and religious views. A lot of things need to go wrong before someone is willing to blow themselves up. Intelligence services have been increasingly effective finding these guys before they act, and they will certainly redouble their efforts now. The US government has also been working intimately with these services, and will perhaps work even more closely. I continue to be impressed by the relative absence of such attacks in the Gulf, despite no shortage of angry and alienated young people with extreme views. My sense is that their intelligence is extremely effective.

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Ann Arbor, Mich.: Does the date of the attacks 9/Nov (9/11) ring a bell, or is it just a coincidence?

The Jordanian government has directed all banks and hotels this morning to have mandatory metal detectors at their entrances. Do you think this would have helped reduce the impact of the attacks, and will it help reduce the chances of success for any future attempts? What could the Jordanians do better to avoid these events in the future?

Jon B. Alterman: I hadn't thought of that. It's an interesting theory, and it might be true. My initial impression is that the al-Qaeda calling card is the simultaneity of the attacks rather than the date, but I could very well be wrong.

Metal detectors and screening certainly helps deter attacks, but it doesn't prevent them. Israel has security guards all over the place, and they still suffer from attacks. My guess is the Jordanians will do much more of what other countries in the region already do, some of which is visible and some of which isn't. They will be somewhat effective, but even being 99% effective can mean you have catastrophic events periodically.

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Cambridge, Mass.: On a side note, you said that Palestinians complain about discrimination in Jordan. But isn't Queen Rania herself a Palestinian?

Jon B. Alterman: Yes, and yes.

East Bankers see themselves as the "real" Jordanians, and they tend to get advantages in government employment, education, etc. Electoral districts also give preference to East Bank-dominated districts. Palestinians have found themselves shunted off to the business community, where some have done very, very well. Everyone in Jordan seems to know who is from where. If you're interested in a book on the subject, Adnan Abu Odeh wrote one for the U.S. Institute of Peace in 1999. He's a West Banker from Nablus, but worked as a teacher and was a close adviser to King Hussein.

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Austin, Tex.: Is there ever a point when terrorism backfires on the perpetrators? The IRA obviously was not willing to continue their efforts in the same manner as a result of recent events. Without sounding too naive, can this radical minority ever be reached? Is it simply a matter of time?

Jon B. Alterman: There's no question that populations can turn against insurgents, and they have. Northern Ireland is a good case (although it often seemed in the 1980s that the IRA had more support among Irish Americans than among Irish Irish). At the same time, it seems to me that some people are irredeemable, and have to be arrested or killed.

One of the interesting things we've seen in the Middle East is individuals who appear to have recanted violence, but still put forward quite ridgidly orthodox religious views. We've seen this in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and elsewhere. As I like to put it, the U.S. often suggests that the answer to religious radicalism is secularism, while some Middle Eastern governments argue that the answer to religious radicalism is religious orthodoxy.

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Jon B. Alterman: Thanks for the excellent questions. We've been working on many related issues at the Middle East program here at CSIS. You can find our work at http://www.csis.org/.

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