Post Politics Hour

washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion

Don't want to miss out on the latest buzz in politics? Start each day at wonk central: The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

washingtonpost.com Political Columnist/Blogger Chris Cillizza was online Wednesday, Nov. 23, at 11 a.m. ET .

Read The Fix politics blog here.

____________________

Chris Cillizza: Good morning and thanks for joining me to talk politics on Thanksgiving Eve.

With Iraq dominating the political debate of late, a new bipartisan poll released earlier this week showed that 70 percent of people think criticism by Democrats of the President's policies in Iraq hurt the morale of our troops. But, at the same time, national poll after national poll show people are dissatisfied with President Bush's handling of the war in Iraq and a majority think it was a mistake to go to war at all. What gives? Please check out my blog -- The Fix -- and give me your thoughts on the seeming contradiction in public opinion.

Now, to your questions.

_______________________

washingtonpost.com: The Fix

_______________________

Rochester, N.H.: Your column on Nov 12th Screams "Democrats Losing Race For Funds Under Dean." In fact Dean has out raised his predecessor. My question is why did you slant the story as Dean the loser?

I also wish to thank you for dissing Dean. Many irate Democrats signed up for Democracy Bonds after your biased column. Dems are not fat cats like the Republicans but we will raise enough money to get the job done.

washingtonpost.com: Democrats Losing Race For Funds Under Dean (Post, Nov. 12)

Chris Cillizza: The story I wrote for the Post earlier this month generated lots of comments and criticisms.

At the center of the story was the fact that the large cash on hand disparity between the Democratic National Committee and the Republican National Committee was causing concerns within the party establishment.

As the questioner rightly points out, Dean's DNC has raised more money than the committee had at this time in 2003 -- a point I, too, made in the third or fourth paragraph of the story.

The dollars raised, however, aren't the reason many party strategists were concerned; it was the fact that the RNC has roughly $34 million in the bank compared to $6.8 million for the DNC. In fact, since the story appeared, the DNC released their fundraising numbers for October, which showed they had spent $700,000 more than they raised in the month -- dropping their cash on hand to just $6.1 million.

To be honest, I think Dean is a victim of high expectations in the wake of the 2004 election. His ability to tap the Internet as a fundraising tool (to the tune of $20 million) during his own presidential campaign led many operatives to believe that Dean would be able to immediately transfer that prowess to the DNC. While the committee's Internet fundraising has picked lately, it has not met those high expectations.

Dean also has suffered from the perception that the 2004 presidential race effectively ended the traditional fundraising disadvantage for Democrats. Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry (D) was able to match President Bush nearly dollar for dollar but alot of those donations seemed to be aimed more against Bush than for Kerry. Re-creating that giving dynamic has been difficult for Dean -- as it would for any party chairman in the wake of the last presidential election.

_______________________

Silver Spring, Md.: So, three years on and with nearly everything he told us having proved prescient, does Howard Dean get another reading from the Washington establishment? I realize he got excited at a pep rally (and shame on him for that), but is it a crime to stand up against a mistake before we make it? Or is adolescent posturing and send-in-the-troops hysteria still the preferred order?

Chris Cillizza: Another Dean question. I do think that some of the Washington establishment is coming around on Dean as he settles into his role as party chair. A recent story in Roll Call (my alma mater) quoted a number of Democratic Members praising Dean for his early dedication to running a 50-state strategy, and dismissed concerns about the committee's fundraising.

Still.....there are a lot of party regulars that remain wary of Dean. Remember, he has never been a part of the Washington political community and in fact ran against the party establishment during his presidential campaign.

So, in part, the queasiness that still exists toward Dean is the fact that he is not a product of the party regulars, which, interestingly, is the same reason why he has such a devoted following among elements of the party's grassroots.

Winning changes everything, however, and Dean had a good day earlier this month when Democrats won in New Jersey and Virginia. If he continues that streak in 2006, he will be welcomed with open arms by the party establishment.

_______________________

Falls Church, Va.: Chris, the RT poll you sighted in The Fix today included rather loaded questions, wouldn't you agree? Consider the question "when Democrats criticize the president's policy on the war in Iraq, do you believe it helps the morale of our troops in Iraq or hurts the morale of our troops in Iraq." No matter the outcome, it's a loaded and pointless question to ask the American public.

I just can't see how polls like this do any good except to distort the issues at hand. So, I suppose my question is, why include it?

Chris Cillizza: Let me first say thanks for reading The Fix. For those of you who don't regularly check it (that must be at least a few dozen people, right?), I do a feature every Wednesday called "Parsing the Polls" that seeks to point out interesting facts and trends in the world of survey research.

As for the inclusion of the RT polling today, I thought it was an interesting counter-perspective on the avalanche of polling that has shown the American public disenchanted with the war in Iraq and President Bush's handling of it.

I included several of the questions verbatim so that people could make their own judgement on how the question was phrased and whether that elicited a specific reaction.

One important note: The survey was conducted by a Democratic and a Republican pollster so the idea that the questionaire was inherently biased seems a bit far-fetched to me.

_______________________

washingtonpost.com: The Fix

_______________________

Rochester, N.Y.: In your opinion who does a better job and who's more forthright with less spin, the NRCC or the DCCC and the RNC or the DNC?

Chris Cillizza: Thanks for the question. Rochester is a beautiful place this time of year although it takes a real survivor to last through those chilly winters.

As for the spin question, I think it's hard to declare a clear victory in the constant battle for public perception. Democrats have had a bit easier time of late selling their arguments lately because of the empirical polling data that shows President Bush struggling to stay above water in the eyes of the American people.

Republicans continue to insist that voters in 2006 will ignore so-called national issues like the war in Iraq in favor of more bread and butter issues -- a major gamble if the political environment remains as it is.

_______________________

Raleigh, N.C.: Congress is home for a couple of weeks. During these breaks, how hard does the typical congressman work to read the mood of his district? Or is it mostly r'n'r time? I'm asking because I'm curious how a few weeks back home might affect the relationship between Congress and the president, especially Republican senators in "purple" states and the rare Republican congressman who is in a district that is a lock. (Most Dems represent surefire districts too; that wasn't a partisan shot.)

Chris Cillizza: Between now and January, Members of Congress will spend much more time at home than they will in Washington, D.C.

Some of that time will be spent with family and friends but there is no doubt that Members will also devote significant time to trying to figure out where their districts (or states) stand on high-profile issues -- especially the Iraq war.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Rahm Emanuel (Ill.) has been asserting for several weeks that when GOP Congressmen go home and analyse the political ewnvironment, a number of them will decide to retire.

If Emanuel proves to be right, take that as a sign that the political environment is toxic for Republicans.

_______________________

Alexandria, Va.: Monday you posted about Americans for Job Security running ads in PA. What affect do you think 527s will have in the '06 elections?

Chris Cillizza: Third party groups like Americans For Job Security will play a major role in the 2006 elections.

Since the passage of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act in 2002, the national party committees have been prhibited from accepting unlimited donations from affluent individuals seeking to influence the political process.

That money has to go somewhere, and that somewhere is into 527 and 501(c)6 organizations, which are allowed to engage in some political activity and can accept unlimited contributions.

527s have to regularly report their financial activity to the IRS; 501(c)6's don't.

Money isn't going away from politics anytime soon, so expect a proliferation of these types of groups in the midterm elections.

One prediction: The soft-money groups will crop up more often in individuals races as opposed to national campaigns.

_______________________

Charleston, S.C.: Chris,

Thanks for taking questions today.

How do you see the 2008 presidential positioning shaping up at this point. In my opinion, one of the most underreported aspects of the past year has been the growing disenchantment, among Republicans, with George Bush. After all, Republicans control the House, Senate, and the White House yet spending has increased at historical levels, governmant continues to grow unabatedly, and the deficit is soaring. There will definitely be a reaction. My question is, do you think the fiscal irreponsibility opens the door for a Democrat in 2008?

Chris Cillizza: Predicting what the political climate will look like in 2008 is an impossible task.

But, I do think you make an important point about the potential for Bush-weariness that could exist on the Republican side heading into the next presidential election.

If Republican primary voters are looking for someone stylistically different from Bush, the likely loser in that sweepstakes would be Virginia Sen. George Allen. Allen has the same down home appeal of President Bush and ideologically the two are similar as well.

_______________________

washingtonpost.com: Posted at 03:15 PM ET, 11/21/2005Pa. Senate: Pro-Santorum Ads LaunchedPennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (R) is getting some help from an outside group as he seeks to make up a double-digit deficit to state Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. (D).Americans For Job Security, an independent group that advocates pro-business positions, is running $500,000 worth of TV ads in every market in the state (with the exception of the costly Philadelphia area) that tout Santorum's accomplishments.As images of a child playing in fall leaves is shown, a narrator says, "Pennsylvania families relax a little more these days because Rick Santorum is getting things done every day." Among Santorum's accomplishments mentioned in the commercial are his work to secure $300 billion in tax relief, eliminating the marriage penalty tax and increasing the per-child tax credit."Call and say thanks because Rick Santorum is the one getting it done," the narrator says at the spot's conclusion." Scroll down to watch one of the ads.AJS is sponsoring two weeks of ads in five of Pennsylvania's six major media markets. The group is spending $174,000 in Pittsburgh, $117,000 in Harrisburg, $83,000 in Wilkes-Barre, $42,000 in Erie and $35,000 in Johnstown/Altoona.Casey's campaign immediately called on AJS to disclose the donors who sponsored the ads and urged Santorum to do the same. "Rick Santorum should be honest with the people of Pennsylvania and bring his backers out of the shadows," said Jay Reiff, who is managing Casey's Senate campaign.John Brabender, Santorum's media consultant, said the reaction by the Casey campaign to the AJS ads was a sign they are "nervous" that the commercials will remind voters about Santorum's accomplishments for working families. AJS is registered with the Internal Revenue Service as a 501(c)6 organization and as a result does not have to make its donor list publicly available. Because of its tax status, the group cannot directly advocate the election or defeat of a candidate but can run issue-advocacy campaigns "educating" voters about where politicians stand on the issues. AJS was a major player during the 2004 cycle, running ads in Senate races in South Dakota, Colorado, Alaska, North Carolina, South Carolina, Oklahoma and Louisiana.Mike Dubke, president of AJS, said the ads are "kickoff for what we are going to be doing" in the 2006 cycle. As for choosing Pennsylvania as its first target, Dubke said the state's close divisions long partisan lines made it attractive for the group. "It is one of the more purple states in the country," he explained.Click 'play' below to watch one of the AJS ads:Americans for Job Security began running TV ads across Pennsylvania this week in support of Sen. Rick Santorum's (R-Pa.) record in Congress. Santorum faces a tough reelection challenge next year from state Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. (D). (Ad is courtesy Americans for Job Security.) By Chris Cillizza | Permalink* | Comments (20) | TrackBack (0)

_______________________

Memphis, Tenn.: The Post is reporting that the Pentagon is planning on removing three brigades from Iraq early next year. Do Dick Cheney and Jean Schmidt know? Are they going to attack the military for being soft on terror? Will Bill Kristol call them "anti-American"?

washingtonpost.com: 3 Brigades May Be Cut in Iraq Early in 2006 (Post, Nov. 23)

Chris Cillizza: This is one of several questions regarding the political future of Barack Obama.

Obama certainly isn't shying away from building a national profile. With speeches like the one referenced in the Post story and his appearance as the keynote speaker at next month's Florida Democratic Party Conference, Obama is making sure he keeps his profile high.

As for whether he runs for president come 2008, I still think it is a real longshot. Obama can bide his time in the Senate and continue to stoke the talk about his star potential while watching his colleagues beat each other up for the nomination.

Even if New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton or some other Democrat wins the White House in 2008 and is re-elected in 2012, Obama will still only be in his 50's in 2016 -- a perfect time to run for national office.

_______________________

Covington, Ky.: Do Rep. Jean Schmidt's comments of the last two days make sense?

First she says she wasn't directing her comments on Friday at Dem. John Murta, then today she is quoted as saying that she wouldn't have directed the comments toward him if she had known he was a retired, decorated Marine colonel.

Does it remind you of Peter Sellers' famous line, "Does your dog bite?" "That's not my dog."

Chris Cillizza: Jean Schmidt has certainly drawn a good deal of unwanted attention from the media and Democrats of late.

Several questioners have asked whether Schmidt's recent comments make her vulnerable in 2006 especially since she eked out a win against Iraq war veteran Paul Hackett (D) in a special election earlier this year.

The short answer appears to be no -- for now. Hackett is running for the Senate against Republican Mike DeWine, which robs House Democrats of their strongest possible candidate.

No other names have emerged yet and this Cincinnati-area district is strongly Republican. Stay tuned to see if Democrats can field a real candidate here.

Also, make sure you check out the Charles Babington's great story on Schmidt today in the Post.

_______________________

washingtonpost.com: Freshman Republican Weathers Backlash (Post, Nov. 23)

_______________________

Washington, D.C.: Who "won" Fridays stand-off in the House? And were there any losers other than Jean Schmidt?

Chris Cillizza: I'm not sure we can judge who won the Iraq showdown in the House just yet.

As I mentioned earlier, I think what Members (both Democrats and Republicans) say when they come back to D.C. after the Thanksgiving recess will be a telling barometer on where the American people stand on Iraq.

Polling seems to show a widespread (and growing) dissatisfaction with how the President is handling the Iraq war but it remains unclear whether Congressional Democrats will be able to transfer that unhappiness into electoral gains.

Democrats still do not have a consensus position on Iraq and strategists say it is unlikely one will emerge -- especially with a number of high-profile Senators trying to figure out how best to position themselves for 2008.

_______________________

Chris Cillizza: That's all folks. I need to catch a plane. Please make sure to check out The Fix today and offer your thoughts on the polling on Iraq. Have a great Thanksgiving!

_______________________

Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.