Robert D. Holsworth
Director of the Center for Public Policy at Virginia Commonwealth University
Wednesday, November 30, 2005; 3:00 PM

Virginia Gov. Mark R. Warner (D) issued his first grant of clemency in a death penalty case Tuesday, sparing the life of convicted murderer Robin M. Lovitt a day before his scheduled execution. (Read More.)

Robert D. Holsworth, the director of the Center for Public Policy at Virginia Commonwealth University, was online Wednesday, Nov. 30, at 3 p.m. ET to field your questions and comments about the potential political implications for Warner as he begins to navigate the national scene.

The transcript follows.

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Bethesda, Md.: Virginia, along with Texas, is the second most medieval state in the union in this respect (executing human beings). Even the Republican governor of Illinois backed a moratorium on all executions until we got it fair and right. It seems like Warner was erring on the side of "reasonable doubt." I guess I'm wondering who, nationally, would take issue with this.

Robert D. Holsworth: Given the fact that that Governor Warner has carried eleven executions, I do not believe that there is much political downside in commuting this sentence. There was some speculation to this effect earlier in the week and that seems to me entirely mistaken. Also, because of the parole laws that now exist in Virginia, there is almost no possibility that we would have a "Willie Horton" situation where an individual convicted of a heinous crime is permitted to go home on furlough and commit another heinous act.

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Rockville, Md.: I'm a big fan of Gov. Warner and I'm looking forward to supporting him as a candidate for president.

My question about this latest news is: what are the chances that a voter who would think less of Gov. Warner for commuting a death sentence based on destroyed evidence would vote Democratic, anyway? I have trouble seeing how this hurts his presidential chances.

Robert D. Holsworth: I agree with this as well. I should emphasize that I do not believe that Governor Warner makes these life or death decisions on a political basis. Both the Governor and his chief counsel, Bob Crouch, are persons of high integrity who clearly looked at all the facts in the case. At the end of the day, there was an act by a governmental body that disposed of evidence that should have remained intact according to a promulgated Virginia law.

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Dallas, Tex.: Why can't this just be about the facts of the case? I mean, does everything have to be viewed from a political prism ... if Warner wasn't even thinking about running, would we even be discussing this? To me he did the right thing and I'm glad he had the conscience and apolitical sense to do so, something I cannot say about Bill Clinton when he ran in 1992.

Robert D. Holsworth: In some ways, you may have answered your own question here. These decisions are viewed through a political prism because of the profile that death penalty views and decisions have had during presidential campaigns. After Dukakis' "Bernie Shaw" moment in the 88 campaign and the Willie Horton ads, Bill Clinton intended to demonstrate to the country that he was not just another liberal Democrat in '92. This had a number of components to it (welfare reform, standards based education reform) and one of the elements was the "death penalty." Who can forget the fact that Clinton took what was described as a "day off" from the campaign to return to Arkansas to carry out an execution (in a case, as I recall, that was relatively controversial about the rational capacities of the murderer). In any event, it is the reality of the Dukakis and Clinton campaigns that have led folks to speculate about Warner's political motivations here, even though I do not believe that these were uppermost at all in his decision-making.

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Washington, D.C.: While I am 100 percent opposed to all capital punishment, there is something about these clemency petitions that really bother me. This fellow got significant publicity because he was able to get a famous lawyer to represent him and the access that came with having Ken Starr on his side significantly increased the likelihood that his claims, regardless of merit, would get privileged treatment. Scores of men and women facing execution have viable claims that are ignored because there is no public pressure placed by newspapers and high-placed individuals.

Robert D. Holsworth: In some ways, this isn't very surprising. Over time, anti-death penalty activists, like all activist groups, have strategies for utilizing media publicity to draw attention to their cause in general and to particular cases. I am not certain, however, that Warner's decision would have been much different, even in the absence of an international media glare. I have spoken to a number of Virginia governors about these choices and they have almost uniformly told me that they pay very substantial attention to the details of every case that comes before them. I have no reason to believe that Mark Warner is any different- in fact, from from I know of him, he is the kind of governor who is always seeking information and turning things over in his own mind. The facts that determined his judgment here would have arisen, Ken Starr or no Ken Starr.

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Silver Spring, Md.: Isn't it a huge leap from Robin Lovitt to Willie Horton? It's not like Warner has set Mr. Lovitt out onto the street. Our legal system is based on "reasonable doubt," and it seems like there was enough of that in this case to warrant erring on the side that can be undone, in my opinion.

Robert D. Holsworth: You're quite correct here. With the elimination of parole and the new sentencing guidelines that Virginia implemented in the 1990's, there is no possibility (short of a prison break) that Lovitt will be returned to the streets anytime soon (though he himself still protests his innocence.)

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Arlington, Va.: How do you think this decision could impact Warner's possible run for the presidency?

Robert D. Holsworth: In the long run, I do not believe that it will have much of an impact. Warner is clearly trying to position himself as the "Democrat who can win" based on his record in Virginia.

At the moment, he is the beneficiary of a great ride in the national media and is in great demand among Democrats nationally. He might well be ahead in the race for the spot as THE ALTERNATIVE to Hillary Clinton. Now, I suspect that the competition for this role will become fairly keen relatively shortly. And so long as a number of candidates are competing for this designation, Hillary's odds remain very, very good. In a four or five person race, she will, I think, always obtain a plurality. It seems to me that the candidate who wishes to stop her from obtaining the momentum needs to move the contest into a two way race very, very quickly.

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Brandermill, Va.: So, Dr. Holsworth, the next big Warner decision is on the Roger Keith Coleman evidence, then Tim Kaine takes office. Might this help set the table for Kaine to stop executions?

Robert D. Holsworth: Excellent question because it points to an area where the political stakes are very high. As we all know, Tim Kaine is opposed to the death penalty personally, but insisted in the campaign that he will uphold Virginia law- which both provides for the penalty and provides Governors with the power of clemency.

At the moment, I believe that Kaine will look at the death penalty on a case-by-case basis and will not try to establish a moratorium of any kind- I think that here the political downside of what would appear to many to be a broken promise could be devastating.

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Springfield, Va.: Gov Warner has lead Virginia through a very impressive economic period. However, with Gov-elect Kaine already holding transportation town hall-style meetings, will Gov. Warner have to face claims that he didn't do enough in terms of smart growth in NoVA?

Robert D. Holsworth: Actually, I think that this issue is going to be far more troublesome for the incoming Governor than the outgoing one.

The Governor-Elect is promising to solve, or at least remedy, Virginia's transportation problems. At the same time, the slow growth coalition in Northern Virginia is taking credit for Kaine's extraordinarily positive performance in the fast growing suburbs. And we might recall that it was the slow growth folks who joined with the anti-taxers to scuttle Warner's transportation referendum in 2002.

I don't think that it is very easy to reconcile the argument that Northern Virginia needs more roads with the arguments that the slow growth coalition have made that more roads simply leads to more gridlock.

Put simply, How Governor Kaine negotiates this tension will be a defining point of his first year.

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Bethesda, Md.: I disagree with the speculation that Warner would have done this for political reasons. He doesn't need to "compete with" Hillary Clinton. Nearly every single person I've talked with, both here in the D.C. area and nationally, says the same thing: Hillary can't win, Warner can.

Robert D. Holsworth: We must obviously talk to different people (which makes politics so fascinating).

While the conventional wisdom a year ago was that Hillary was unelectable, there is a growing sense among Republicans that she can certainly win. They point to the problems that the Republicans are currently having, her capacity to mobilize the Democratic base to a very high level of turnout and to the narrowness of the GOP margin in both 2000 and 2004. In Republican circles, there is a growing sense that if a candidate with the limited campaign skills of John Kerry could almost win, there is really no reason why Hillary Clinton could not be a very strong candidate. In practical electoral terms, Republicans are asking themselves "what state would she lose that Kerry carried?"

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Boise, Idaho: So would Warner accept VP on a ticket with Bredesen or would he insist on leading?

Robert D. Holsworth: I think that Warner would be very happy to contribute to the national debate in 2008 and would be a natural for a Clinton/Warner ticket.

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Silver Spring, Md.: Is it really in the Virginia Attorney General's job description to offer "thoughts and prayers" on behalf of the Commonwealth?

Robert D. Holsworth: The Virginia attorney general is elected (or, in this case, appointed) independently of the Governor and certainly has the right to make whatever statement that might want to make about a gubernatorial decision.

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Washington, D.C.: What about the symbolism of this being the 1000th execution? Do you think that played a roll in Warner's decision?

Robert D. Holsworth: I really do not believe that it played much of a role and was certainly subordinated to the facts of the case- this is the kind of symbolism that I think the media may pay much more attention to than the decision-maker.

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Arlington, Va.: I'm an Arlington Democratic activist and I have to say, while I was pleased that our Democratic Governor decided to err on the side of caution and spare the life of someone whose guilt was very much in doubt, I was disturbed to hear that it was an Arlington court clerk that destroyed the evidence. Why did this happen? Was it the elected Clerk of the Court that made this decision?

Robert D. Holsworth: I'm not sure who the individual was who actually disposed of the evidence.

Virginia had recently passed legislation requiring all the evidence that could be used for DNA testing to remain intact- and three weeks after the law took effect, the evidence in this case was discarded. I don't know the motivation, but it could well be the case of someone at a lower level being unfamiliar with the new legal requirements.

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Silver Spring, Md.: Three cheers for Mark Warner!! We can only hope that the governor of Maryland will step up in the next week or so and do the right thing as well.

Just to get the record straight, I predict a Feingold/Warner ticket. Feingold is way out in front of Hilary on the issues. She would be doing the party a favor if she and Joe Biden got behind him right now!

Robert D. Holsworth: Goodness, everyone seems to think that Hillary won't be a strong contender for the nomination while I think that she's the favorite. Feingold is certainly an intriguing possibility but, in practical terms, hw does he raise the resources to be competitive?

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Charlottesville, Va.: To what extent did this clemency come about because Mark Warner did not want to be responsible for the landmark 1000th execution? Obviously there were real concerns related to the destruction of DNA evidence, but wouldn't this have been a factor in his decision as well?

Robert D. Holsworth: It is always difficult to parse the precise weights of various factors when assessing the motivation of political figures- but barring evidence to the contrary, it seems to me the factual matters that Warner cited are fairly compelling. His chief advisor on this issue, Bob Crouch, is a tough on crime former U.S. attorney. And having carried out eleven executions, it certainly seems to me that Warner would not be prevented from carrying out another by the symbolism of the number involved. I tend to believe he is a more serious individual than that.

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Washington, D.C.: In a response you stated: "the candidate who wishes to stop her from obtaining the momentum needs to move the contest into a two way race very, very quickly."

How quickly? By early 2007?

Robert D. Holsworth: That would be impossible- there are far too many Democrats who see 2008 as a great time to run for the presidency and the field is likely to be relatively cluttered-something which I believe is very good for Clinton. I think that the field would have to be winnowed very, very early during the primary season for a strong contender to emerge.

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Robert D. Holsworth: Thanks very much for all your questions. What happened for the last two days is an indication that Mark Warner is becoming a serious contender on the national stage-and that almost everything he now says and does will be viewed through the lens of 2008- it'll be fascinating for those of us who have watched closely for the last four years.

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