Lebanon: A Nation in Transition

washingtonpost.com Special Video Project

The recent alleged assassination of prominent Lebanese journalist and politician Gebran Tueni comes in the shadow of an already tumultuous year for Lebanon, a nation which has seen two decades of civil war in the 1970s and 1980s followed by political uncertainty and de facto occupation by Syria. The assassination of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri in February touched off mass protests against the Syrian government, which despite official denials was widely blamed for the killing (a U.N. investigation found substantial support for the accusations). In response Syrian forces departed after a 15-year presence in Lebanon, ostensibly as peacekeepers in the wake of its long standing civil war. Lebanon is facing a period of transition as a polarized populace works toward establishing democracy.

A new washingtonpost.com special video projects examines two prominent issues in Lebanon: campaign censorship and the voting rights of Lebanese living abroad. Lebanon's Emerging Civil Society.

Read the latest headlines on Lebanon.

Washington Post staff writer Anthony Shadid , who is based in Beirut, was online Wednesday, Dec. 21, at noon ET to discuss the political transformations taking place in Lebanon. Shadid, who won the 2004 Pulitzer Prize for International Reporting, is also author of "Night Draws Near: Iraq's People in the Shadow of America's War" .

The transcript follows.

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Anthony Shadid: Good afternoon. It's a pleasure to join you all today. I'm writing from Beirut, where we have the paper's Middle East bureau. I hope we can cover a lot of ground.

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San Diego, Calif.: Anthony, I think The Post is giving a very misleading picture of Lebanon. The text creates a picture that suggests the Syrians brought all of Lebanon's troubles, and removing them is the key to stability. That's ahistorical. What's more, the picture The Post paints is an undeveloped society, like Saddam's Iraq, but Beirut is certainly no backwater. It has a Virgin Records, it has great clubs, it has an Alain Ducasse! And it had Hariri as Prime Minister! We are not talking about a place that lacked a political culture or civil society. The image is just wrong, and it feeds an American notion of Lebanese backwardness, as well as a notion that the Lebanese want and need American involvement. That is fallacious. There are interests in Lebanon that want an American ally to their own sectarian ends, which are not necessarily the noblest ends, nor democratic ones. Also, the Lebanese are hardly a third world people who need America to bring them the fire of civilization. Yet American coverage always casts the U.S. as the agent of democracy and civilization to backward peoples. In the context of American involvement in Lebanon, does that really make sense?

Anthony Shadid: Thanks for the question. I guess I'm confused about which articles in the Post actually paint that picture. I think our reporting has tried to go far in moving the debate beyond a simple question of dictatorship or democracy. As you pointed out, it's much more complicated than that. I think you're certainly right that Syria is not the sole source of problems here, many of which date to the civil war and before. There is a civil society here and a political culture, although both are undergoing fundamental changes following the Syrian withdrawal. And I think you also rightly point out that there remains a lot of suspicion over American intentions here. Many do appreciate American pressure in forcing a Syrian withdrawal, but past U.S. policy, as in most Arab countries, casts a long shadow.

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Springfield, Va.: Will Lebanon turn over to the U.S. the murderer of the U.S. sailor who was recently released by Germany? According to several news Web sites - but not The Post - he's already in custody there. Would refusal to extradite him seriously damage relations between Lebanon and the U.S.?

Anthony Shadid: My latest understanding is that he's not in custody. I think his release and suggestions that the U.S. might want him extradited have caused a lot of confusion here. The prime minister asked why that wasn't done in Germany. And my understanding is that Hezbollah officials, whether right or not, suspect that pressure for his extradition may be used to escalate additional pressure on Hezbollah itself. The organization, though, is not commenting publicly on it. Will it hurt relations? I doubt it. Lebanon at this point is one of the administration's perceived successes in the region, and I don't think anyone has an appetite for a fallout, especially at a time that Lebanon is in a precarious position.

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Newark, Del.: Hello Mr. Shadid, excellent book. Question. Do you see any shift in the position of the Shia community in Lebanon as more evidence points to Syrian involvement in the bomb attacks this year? Any chance that Hezbollah or Amal will distance themselves from the Syrian government?

Anthony Shadid: The role of Amal and Hezbollah, the two main Shiite parties, is a subject of almost continuous conversation here. Their ministers have suspended participation in the government, which deprives the Cabinet of representation of the country's biggest single community. Hezbollah is known for taking its time with decisions and of going through a long process in formulating policy. I personally don't see any big shift ahead in the near future, and both it and Amal remain Syria's main allies here. If there was change in Syria, however, that would certainly realign forces here.

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Washington, D.C.: How many times have you personally heard someone in Lebanon credit the war in Iraq and/or Bush's doctrine of "transformation" in the broader Middle East for the movement that pushed Syrian troops out of Lebanon?

Anthony Shadid: I don't think there's any question that people credit the administration's pressure in forcing Syria to withdraw. Of course, that's not the same thing as the war in Iraq. As I said earlier, there is a certain amount of suspicion over the American role here. It's especially pronounced among the Shiite parties, but even people who would identify themselves as pro-American (a term with many shades of meaning) wonder out loud whether the administration wouldn't sacrifice Lebanon for a far-ranging deal with Syria. Others wonder how long Lebanon stays high up on the administration's agenda.

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Beirut, Lebanon: Lebanese are fearful of possible compromise between Washington and Damascus.

Anthony Shadid: That's right. As I said in another answer, I think that's a definite fear. Some wonder if a deal wasn't already struck.

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Silver Spring, Md.: Hi Anthony, it seems to me, "Night Draws Near" tells Americans everything the don't get about Iraq and the Iraqi people. The diversity of views, strong religious beliefs, the long standing grudges, defending your homeland against the invaders, voting along party(religious) lines. Iraqis remind me of Americans.

The only chance for peace in the Mideast, be it Lebanon or Iraq or Israel is to change the paradigm and wage peace instead of war. The current idea of winning through endless violence only ends up with everyone losing, as proven over 30 years in Lebanon, four years in Iraq, and 50 years in Israel.

First public act, outlaw the death penalty, starting with Saddam Hussein. And of course, stop the torture. What do you think? Is there any viable alternative to changing paradigms and waging peace?

Anthony Shadid: Thanks for the question, and for reading the book. Do I see any dramatic change ahead? I do think U.S. policy in Iraq is being reformulated to a degree. To what extent, I don't know. And I wonder how strategic that reformulation would have to be to offset the forces that are already in play there -- hardening of sectarian and ethnic lines, Sunni disenfranchisement, a culture of the gun that has greater and greater sway. The election this month, as with past ones, was a remarkable moment. But I always worry about the aftermath, and I think the complaints (actually, denunciations) that we've been hearing lately don't bode all that well for the jockeying ahead.

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Washington, D.C.: Don't you believe the area problems and terrorism in Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon will continue as long as the present system exists in Syria?

Anthony Shadid: No, I don't. That's not an apology for the Syrian government, but I think if you ask what poses the greatest threat to Iraq's neighbors, the answer would be the insurgency in Iraq. I've always felt that the attention to foreign fighters is overstated, as is the Syrian role in the insurgency. If there were no foreigners in Iraq, and Syria sealed its borders, there would still be an insurgency and it would remain strong. My sense is that there's a radicalization going on within some elements of the insurgency that poses a generation-long threat to the region. In some ways, the damage may have already been done.

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Clifton, Va.: With the withdrawal of Syria from Lebanon and the country now apparently attempting to reconnect (to some extent) with the West, are the Lebanese people or governmental leaders fearful that Iraqi-style insurgency might erupt in Lebanon as a result of their government being seen as too "pro-U.S." by Muslim extremists or nationalists in that area of the world?

Anthony Shadid: I guess my sense is that the bigger worry among Lebanese is the growing sectarian tension in the country. Lebanon remains a country of the two protests in March -- one organized by Hezbollah that was, for lack of a better phrase, pro-Syrian; the other, larger one demanding Syria's withdrawal. Those divisions remain, and if anything, they are more pronounced today. To a degree, Lebanon has yet to reconcile with the war's legacy. Many of the divisions remain, as do the leaders that fought that war. At times, they prove adept at negotiation and bargaining, but that same flexibility is not always reflected within their communities. The killings we've seen here after Hariri are of Orthodox Christian figures with no mass following. There's a worry that if one of the more traditional communal leaders was killed, the aftermath might be far more dangerous.

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Wyckoff, N.J.: I have several questions.

How likely is it that the Bush administration will seek to apply further pressure on Syria given Rice's public acknowledgement that border security between Iraq and Syria has improved? Has Bashar found a way to satisfy our minimum requirements while still asserting Syrian dominance in Lebanon?

Do Russia, China and Algeria make the implementation of a U.N. policy with teeth impossible?

The principle targets (since Hariri's death) of the continuing campaign of violence and intimidation have been Christian politicians and journalists. Do Syria's most vocal critics tend to be Christians? Is this leading to a rise in sectarian tensions?

Anthony Shadid: These are good questions, and I wish I had the answers. I'll tell you what people say here -- there's definitely a sense that pressure has eased on Syria, and that the Syrian government has managed to maneuver through the worst of what followed the Mehlis report. That's just a sense, but you hear it often. My own read is that sanctions would be difficult to impose. Another report won't come out for six months and international attention can be fickle. As you pointed out, countries like Russia and China are not eager for a new sanctions regime, either. On your last question, I think I got at that in my previous post.

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Munich, Germany: Whatever happened to the "Damascene Spring", after Hafez Al-Assad had passed away, and the young Bashar Al-Assad with his British raised wife were being wooed by Tony Blair in London?

Is it generally accepted that Bashar Al-Assad is responsible for the recent car bombings in Lebanon, or is it the work of the old dogs of war that once worked for Bashar's hardline father, Hafez?

Anthony Shadid: The Damascene spring turned into a fall, and I don't think we have seen that outspokenness repeated since then. That said, you can hear remarkable statements made in Syria. There remains a very brave, somewhat outspoken stratum in Damascus that is pushing for change. Who's responsible for the killings? I don't know. Is it the Syrian government, elements of the Syrian government, someone else? Mehlis had his view: the killings are all linked, and he has spoken very bluntly of Syrian involvement in Syria's death. It is interesting here the degree to which people expect more killings. It's almost accepted as inevitable and contributes to some of the pessimism you often hear.

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Anonymous: Hello Anthony; great book. How widespread is the support for Hezbollah among the Shiites in Lebanon? Is it safe to say that this party speaks for the Shiite community? Thanks and Merry Christmas to you.

Anthony Shadid: Thanks for the compliment. "Speaks for the Shiite community" is probably too sweeping, but I don't think there's any question that Hezbollah represents the decisive force in Shiite politics. They have a long record here, and even those who resent its presence or loathe its policies will often suggest that the leadership is "wise" and that its reputation for efficiency and a lack of corruption is deserved. It will long remain a crucial force in Lebanese politics.

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Washington, D.C.: Mr. Shadid:

I have two questions to ask, if you don't mind:

1. I am curious to know of the integrity and cohesiveness of this "March 14" opposition, particularly in the eyes of ordinary Lebanese citizens...because when looking at the politicians involved, we see that almost all of them, in some way or form, were allies of Syria and either defended or supported the occupation. I remember Jumblatt in an interview in the late 90s stating that the Syrian presence in Lebanon was needed for stability. Rafiq Hariri, often touted in the Western press as a die hard patriot working for the independence and sovereignty of Lebanon, was himself closely allied with the Syrian regime in the late 90s and defended their interests in Lebanon. And while I know there is existed a great fear of speaking out against Syria during that time, there was nothing pushing these politicians to lavish such praise upon the Syrian regime. I personally am skeptical of them, and wonder if you think that they are steadfast in their desires for independence and sovereignty, or if they are simply opportunists playing upon the political landscape.

2. My second question is about Hezbollah, Amal, and the Shiites in Lebanon. Does it bother the Lebanese people that this community and its leaders are effectively serving as the Syrian regime's fifth column in the country? The very same regime that maimed Marwane Hamadeh and May Chadiac, and killed Samir Kassir and Gebran Tueni, is the same regime that they purportedly defend. I read in Nahar that Nasrallah called Ghassan Tueni to offer condolences on the death of his son, but is the irony here lost on the fact that Nasrallah is allied with the very forces that are suspected of killing the son of the man he is consoling? Is there any such current of thought being examined in the country, or is it that people are intimidated to speak against Hezbollah for fear of their weapons?

I apologize for the longwindedness of these questions and thank you for answering them.

Anthony Shadid: From the look of your questions, you may know the answers better than me. I think you hit at some of the key issues in Lebanon today. There is skepticism about the role of Lebanon's traditional leaders and their views toward Syria. Jumblatt, in particular, but others as well. The forces behind March 14 are trying to reconstitute themselves, but when we look at the landscape, it's interesting to note a couple things. Hezbollah and Amal, to a large extent, represent the Shiite community and they have remained Syrian allies here. There's no sign of that changing. (Their role in the Cabinet remains unresolved.) Judging from the election, Michel Aoun commands a great deal of support among Christians here. He remains outside the Cabinet. At times, the two have found tactical intersections -- in keeping President Lahoud in office, for instance. What does that all say? You may have a better sense than me, but I think Lebanese politics still have to be read through a communal lens, and tactical alliances can make a mockery of principle. While March 14 was a striking moment, the hope it represented has definitely faded. On the other question, I've discussed a little about it in other posts. But I might add one thing here -- as with many communities, history remains a vivid part of the present. I guess I'm struck by how often issues for Hezbollah are cast in existential terms. How does that affect politics? I'm not exactly sure, but there's a vulnerability I think the movement feels that deeply colors the decisions it takes.

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Waldorf, Md.: What are the chances that Hezbollah will own up to its role in Stethem's murder, and more important, is there any possibility that Hezbollah will recognize itself as the main obstacle to peace in Lebanon? What chance is there that Hezbollah will turn aside from its policy of armed resistance against the Israelis to one of peaceful coexistence with its Lebanese brothers and sisters.

Anthony Shadid: I don't see that happening. In fact, I think Hezbollah fears the release of Hammadi is going to be used as a pretext to build pressure on the organization. My understanding is that they want his case to fade away. Even the prime minister was taken aback by suggestions the U.S. would want him extradited. As for its role in Lebanese politics, Hezbollah's disarmament is and will remain a crucial issue here. I'm not sure if I can add any insights, but again, I go back to this idea of the organization's perceived vulnerability. It's difficult to see what they would ask for in return for laying down their arms. I'm not saying it can't be resolved but I do think it will be one of the more difficult issues any Lebanese government faces.

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New York, N.Y.: Arab Christians, in Lebanon in particular, have always been torn between being Arab (because that's what they are, they speak the language, share the same culture) and being Christians, with that making them closer to western world. The word Arab has always been associated with being Muslim. Being Arab is speaking the language and does not refer to a particular religion. I think one of the most important things American foreign policy can focus on is stop depainting Arabs as barbarians, acknowledging their culture and respecting their difference. Not all Arabs are extremists, and a lot of Muslims are moderate and they refuse extremism.

Anthony Shadid: To me, as a reporter and someone who has spent time in the Middle East, the question of identity is one of the most crucial issues before the region. I think it underlines almost everything -- perhaps less so in a place like Egypt; very acutely in places like Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. I don't think I'm overstating it by arguing that how those questions of identity are resolved will determine, in many ways, the political systems that evolve in each country. Syria is an interesting case. Its official ideology is Arab nationalism. Many there feel first and foremost Arab. But the conception of Syrian citizenship is not that pronounced, and many, particularly Syrian minorities, feel an incredible degree of vulnerability. I think sectarian identity remains probably the biggest force in Syrian politics and would emerge forcefully, as it has in Iraq, in the event of change. That prospect delivers the government a certain legitimacy by default.

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Chantilly, Va.: Mr. Shadid, during the March demonstrations in Lebanon a third party or voice emerged from the Shiite community that appeared to distance itself from Hezbollah and Amal conveying their solidarity with those demonstrating against Syria as a result of the Hariri demonstration. It was as if Hezbollah paused for a moment to contemplate the "million" demonstrators who responded to its "500,000" pro-Syrian demonstrators (some of whom were seen coming in buses crossing the Syrian-Lebanese frontier to boost the demonstrators numbers apparently) and this third voice emerged. What happened to this emerging current in the Shiite community? I think it demonstrated if only for a while that not all Shiites agree with the pro-Syrian alignment with Syria and a hope for unification is possible among all Lebanese communities.

Anthony Shadid: No question, there are other currents within the Shiite community, and the Hezbollah leadership apparently expressed some alarm at the lack of, I don't know, discipline in voting during the parliamentary elections. But Hezbollah, through organization, and Amal, through patronage, remain the overwhelmingly dominant forces within the community. They monopolize political representation, and Hezbollah, in particular, has the numbers to back up its demands.

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Anthony Shadid: It looks like time is up. I really appreciate all the questions, and I apologize not getting a chance to respond to everyone. It's a great forum. Thanks for taking the time to write.

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