2006 CES

The Washington Post's Yuki Noguchi and Greg Schneider were online to share their thoughts on the 2006 International Consumer Electronics Show.

On Saturday, they wrote about the splash Google and Yahoo made at their first CES. They also contributed to "At The Show," our CES blog.

A transcript follows.

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washingtonpost.com: Yuki and Greg, thanks for joining us. What were the main impressions you took away from CES?

Yuki Noguchi: Thank you, and props to the washingtonpost.com team for compiling all the news and video from CES.

As usual, the selection of goods at CES was both broad and deep.

It's impossible and too simplistic to boil it down to one impression. In general, the high-def TVs are bigger and better than last year, and in fact everything seems to come in high def. Cameras, of course, and games and computer screens. Subwoofers for the cars are shinier and louder. Also, video is everywhere---on the Internet, on your wireless phone, and coming to your satellite radio system.

Hopefully Greg took in more of the show floor than I did. It's a massive, and hugely congested place. People take naps in the hallways. Greg will hopefully join in a second and share his thoughts as well...

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Arlington, VA: Why are CBS and NBC selling their programs exclusively using Yahoo and Google (acting as the middleman)? Can't they sell the programs directly to the consumer and save some money? In general what is the role of search engines in the media business?

Yuki Noguchi: Well, actually, I don't think anyone is interested in signing exclusive deals. Over time, I think you will see the networks---and the NBA, cable channels, etc.---offering more and more of their content over Web portals like Google and Yahoo. It makes sense to strike experimental deals with those companies because the Google/Yahoo audience is huge.

The main interest for content providers with these initial deals to offer their shows online is to see whether offering programming that way enhances their distribution. It won't be long now before people spend more time on the Internet than watching TV, and if/when that happens,the programmers don't want to miss out on ad dollars online.

For consumers, by the way, this could mean a number of things. It may mean that you get an option of either watching free shows with advertising, or paying a buck or two for the right to watch it sans ads.

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Great Falls, Va: Based on what you saw/heard at CES...What do you think is the safer bet for the center of the connected home .. will it be the computer or will it be somethng like set-top boxes... and how far away are the things that will make connected everything easy?

Yuki Noguchi: This is such a good question, and quite central to a lot of what is going on at places like CES.

You saw that Yahoo made this announcement about making its various services--email, photos, calendar--available on the TV, computer, and phone. (The TV in this scenario has to be connected to the Internet.) Also, Sling Media, which makes a kind of settop box, showed me this very cool application that lets you watch your recorded shows (or live ones) on your PDA phone.

My guess, and this is really just a guess, is that there will be some hybrid device that acts as a kind of digital router that deals with both TV and Internet. Or, as is the case with Yahoo, perhaps it will just be possible by connecting your devices to the Internet. Either way, your question about simplicity is very much on target. Whereas the CES show of the past focused on cool technologies, this year I felt like the companies were focusing more of the discussion on how to make it all easier to use for the consumer. How far away is the plug-and-play connected home? It depends on how you define "easy to use." Further away than next year's CES, but hopefully not too terribly far.

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Arlington, Va.: One of the complaints in some of the blog entries and comments was that the show is just too big. Was there a level of frustration, knowing that you probably wouldn't/couldn't see everything?

Yuki Noguchi: Absolutely. This is a common theme in the show. Most people I talked to said they didn't see the show floor, or were avoiding it altogether because of the crowds. (There were 130,000 attendees.)

There is a benefit to being able to have a comprehensive show, but maybe not, if you don't get to the show floor.

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Arlington, VA: Okay, so aside from this wonderful forum, where else can I go to see a thorough round up of what was at CES? I've seen Gizmodo and PCMag. What is the thing that came out of CES that we'll all be using in the next year?

Yuki Noguchi: Not that I think you should venture far from the Washington Post, but CNET has a very large presence at CES, and keeps a pretty comprehensive Web site on the show.

As for the device that will be mainstream by this time next year, it depends who you are. I think the WiFi-enabled cameras that allow you to send pictures directly from the camera are pretty cool. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if you find yourself doing more with your cell phone than before, whether that's checking your Web email account, watching video snippets, or having the thing give you directions.

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Greg Schneider: Hi -- Sorry to be late. I'd like to say I overslept, but in fact I was stuck in a meeting. This was my first CES and it was a great experience, but exhausting. I had to wear an old pair of shoes to work this morning because my feet are so torn up from all the walking... Some things that made big impressions on me: Viiv, the Intel concept for PCs as TVs... A company called Benq, from Taiwan, with a huge selection of consumer electronics goods that are just beginning to be available in this country... Lots of iPod accessories, even though Apple wasn't at the show... Huge plasma and LCD TVs...

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Potomac Falls, VA: Is there any hope of the dual format 'war' for high definition DVDs to be settled in 2006?

washingtonpost.com: Fast Forward: As HDTV Prices Fall, Manufacturers Create DVD Format War

Greg Schneider: I kind of doubt anything will be settled this year. There are so many forces behind both Blu-ray and HD-DVD that I don't think either side will go down easily. Both camps were promoting themselves heavily at the show. That means there could be a lot of confusion for consumers in the coming year as each format tries to establish itself.

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Ottawa, Canada: With Google and Yahoo offering video services, does it mean the end of IPTV from telecom provider such as AT&T (used to be called SBC) and Verizon?

If I'm a consumer, I would be more inclined to use Google and Yahoo as my video service provider than using the telecom provider...

Your thought is highly appreciated.

Yuki Noguchi: This is a fascinating question. I am not sure anyone really knows how consumer behavior will evolve around the various options for video. Will people have the tolerance to sit and watch video over a laptop?

Right now, Google Video is offering shows a day after it airs live. Will people care enough about getting a basketball game live to pay either a cable company or their IPTV provider (like Verizon) a monthly fee? I asked some of these questions of Google representatives, and they weren't sure---which is the whole point of the experiment.

But your point is dead on: There are more choices now than ever for getting video, and more business models to support those choices. Frankly, I never thought cell phones would be a viable place for watching video, but some of it really isn't all that bad. (I would have been happy to have one during my 5 hour plane delay last night.) Each will offer their pros and cons and different price points, and hopefully you as a consumer will have a diversity of choices.

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Irvine, Calif.: Following up on the question from Arlington regarding the size of the show, do you think it's likely that there will be smaller, more category or theme-specific high tech trade shows in the future?

Yuki Noguchi: There are already those types of shows, for the wireless industry, the cable industry, etc. One of the big benefits of CES is that it tries to encompass everything. That is still what sets it apart, but for the sake of the attendees who have to stand in those interminable lines for taxis, monorails, press conferences, etc., I hope they find a better logistical solution!

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Marthas Vineyard, MA: From the trend you saw at CES..do you think movies/TV to multimedia gadgets ie.. wireless, net, slingbox..etc.. Will be the eventual end to cable monopoly franchises..

Greg Schneider: I think the profusion of multimedia devices -- and there are a LOT of them -- will cause cable and other content providers to adapt and evolve. It's hard to say yet how consumers will ultimately decide they want their entertainment delivered; the answer is probably that different people will want it in different ways, and the content providers will have to figure out how to feed every appetite. That's why so many partnerships seem to be announced almost every day.

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Washington, D.C.: So did you see anything that was touted as an ipod killer? Think there is such a thing?

Yuki Noguchi: No joke:I did see a combination Swiss army knife and MP3 player. That would literally be an iPod killer, right?

In all seriousness, there were TONS of MP3 player varietals on display at the show, not all of which I had the time to look at. It seems to me, though, that one of the biggest advantages Apple has is having the whole music/video ecosystem in the form of iTunes.

But Yahoo and the cellular phone companies are coming out with some pretty darn sophisticated programs and devices. I would say it's likely that you'll see MP3 players become integrated into the other devices in your life.

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Sterling, VA: Hi Yuki and Greg,

I was wondering if anyone managed to pin down when (specifically) we should expect to see Blu-Ray players and discs? Are they still set for the spring?

Greg Schneider: Of course, Toshiba got the jump on the Blu-ray crowd during the show by announcing an HD-DVD player for later this year. I didn't see anything else so specific from the Blu-ray side, though there were displays of Blu-ray machines. Panasonic had an extensive one. It's just a matter of time...

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20906: About paying to watch tv without commercials: We already pay enough (cable more than satellite) to watch tv. How absurd to think that we would pay to watch without commercials? Even with one show per day that is an extra 30-60 bucks/month.

Remember when cable didn't have as many commercials (sigh).

Yuki Noguchi: Fair enough. I still don't pay for my TV (I'm a non-cable holdout), and I have to accept the trade offs. I can't see where the ball is because the reception is so bad, for example.

But the thing about TV over the Internet is that it seems to be leading to more choice. So you may be able to watch your shows with commercials for free, or not, and pay the $30 to $60 a month you pay now. The biggest benefit they're touting with all of this, though, is that it's all on demand. So if time is money, you basically save one of the two along the way.

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Arlington, Va.: Yuki, you addressed the size of the show. Was there any talk of scaling it down, breaking it up to concentrate on various sectors or having it in different cities?

washingtonpost.com: Jeff Joseph from the Consumer Electronics Association addressed that topic in a chat on Friday.

Yuki Noguchi: Straight from the authority on this subject...

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Wheaton, Md.: Hi,

In your article, Google co-founder Larry Page mentions the need for standards to make it easier to create software that interface with gadgets. What are some of the standards under discussion?

Greg Schneider: Larry Page took the opportunity of his first CES keynote speech to really lecture the industry for what he saw as its bad habits. Tops was making it so difficult for devices to interact; he didn't offer a specific solution, though. He said individual companies should not have to figure out how to make specific devices talk to one another; instead, there should be common standards so anyone could figure out how to share photos, say, between digital cameras. But he didn't have specifics. He just wants to get discussions started.

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Los Angeles, CA: What was the most compelling keynote address at CES?

Greg Schneider: I'm afraid I missed Bill Gates and also Howard Stringer, the Sony chief. But of the other three I saw (Paul Otellini of Intel, Terry Semel of Yahoo and Larry Page of Google), the Page speech was the one that stood out as being different from the others and kind of separate from the whole ethos of the show. It was far less slick and produced (Page consulted a crumpled sheet of notes instead of a teleprompter), it rambled all over the place, and at times Page seemed to be lecturing the industry on how to do better. Terry Semel and Paul Otellini both were much slicker and more boosterish, and they had a more clear-cut theme about the coming-together of technology and content.

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Vienna, VA: Anything worth noting on bluetooth communication devices for motorcycle riders? I've been monitoring various reports but have not seen much. More coverage of gadgets for the motorcycle riders would be appreciated greatly.

Yuki Noguchi: I will be honest with you, I didn't catch any booths with biker-specific gadgets. I would have stopped to look.

But car-related communications is increasing, for sure. XM Satellite announced its plans to do voice-activation with its systems. And in general, there appears to be a movement to make your car more connected to the Internet, to your phone, etc. Although some cars come with Bluetooth built in (like the Prius, for example), there has been some concern in developing that because of the threat of viruses. (I wrote a story about a year and a half ago about the spread of cell-phone viruses, some of which infect other phones via Bluetooth.)

I'm sure with motorcycles, there are additional challenges...like making sure your Bluetooth earpiece doesn't fall out when you drive over a bump. But I am just now aware of the specific developments. Sorry!

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Crofton, MD: I can't believe that the Post Tech writer is still using rabbit ears to watch television! How can you call yourself a tech expert?

Yuki Noguchi: Yeah, sorry. I usually go to my friend's house to watch his expensive HDTV/DVR.

Go easy on me. Working in journalism is like taking a vow of poverty. Ok?

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Fairfax, VA: Hello,

Did you get to see the Toshiba and Canon's SED displays and what did you think about them? Also I am very interested in the HD-DVD more so than the Blu-rays. Did you get them see them as well and what did you think about them?

Greg Schneider: I missed Canon's display, but I saw Toshiba's and I saw Panasonic's Blu-ray setup. Both were impressive. I don't have a sharp enough eye to say I saw much difference. On a side note, it was cool to see Panasonic touting its prototype 103-inch plasma screen TV as the "world's biggest" because it was bigger than Toshiba's 102-inch version. Both were jaw-dropping; it was like watching a department store window.

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Harpers Ferry, WV: I was reading an article on Toshiba's Surface-conduction Electron-emitter Display (SED) flat panel that has the potential to kill LCD and Plasma technologies. Toshiba says that the TV will have a contrast ratio of 100,000 to 1 as opposed to today's LCD and Plasma which is at 3,000 to 1. I was wondering if you guys got a chance to look at this TV and if you think it will really kill the other technologies?

Greg Schneider: I did see some of that. I wish I had a room full of flat-panels at home so I could be a connoisseur and tell the difference. The only thing I really noticed was that the SED seemed a little easier to view from an angle... I'll have to stock up my basement with different versions and do some research (as long as I can put them on the Post's expense account, of course...)

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Annapolis, MD: Submitting early.

I have basic cable television. Despite the fact that I get no premium channels, my cable bill has steadily increased every year! My question, however, concerns TIVO. I am thinking about getting one. I have heard little, however, about any new products from the company. Is TIVO still viable, or have other systems supplanted it?

Yuki Noguchi: Well, I've heard people argue both sides. There is a definite possibility that other forms of digital recording will outpace Tivo.

As for some interesting new developments: Tivo fairly recently announced a feature that ties in with Yahoo, so you can program your Tivo off of Yahoo. Also, at the show, Sling Media demonstrated this product I mentioned earlier that allows you to program and view your Tivo programming off of a Windows-enbled smart phone.

I've already been chastised for not being on the cutting edge of TV-watching, but I had dinner with one of the Sling co-founders, Jason Krikorian, and he was calling up shows off of the screen of his cell phone--and it wasn't grainy or slow.

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Yuki Noguchi: Thanks very much for the smart questions. I would only add that, if CES is any indication, one of the most significant developments of this year's show was better wireless connectivity. It was leaps and bounds better than it was last year---and I think that's indicative of the developments in the wireless industry in general.

Thank you all very much for tuning in.

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Greg Schneider: Thanks to everyone who wrote in with questions. And I also want to thank the washingtonpost.com staff for doing such a great job processing all this stuff over the past week. I hope all the blog postings, photos, video and etc. gave a bit of a sense of what it was like at the show.

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Editor's Note: Washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions.