New bin Laden Tape Warns of Attack in U.S.

Analysts Authenticate that Voice on Tape is that of al Qaeda Leader

CSIS senior fellow Daniel Benjamin , former NSC Counterterrorism Director under President Clinton and author of "The Next Attack," was online Friday, Jan. 20, at 11 a.m. ET to discuss Osama bin Laden 's new tape warning of attacks on the U.S. Analysts have authenticated the tape, in which the al Qaeda leader speaks of attacks in Europe and says, "as for similar operations taking place in America, it's only a matter of time. They are in the planning stages, and you will see them in the heart of your land as soon as the planning is complete."

Read more: Bin Laden Audiotape Warns of Attacks in U.S. , ( Post, Jan. 19, 2006 )

Read Warren Bass 's review of "The Next Attack": Off Target , ( Post, Nov. 6, 2005 )

The transcript follows.

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Wheaton, Md.: Is there any truth to rumor that bin Laden is dying of AIDS, similar to Yasser Arafat?

Daniel Benjamin: There is no reliable information to suggest that.

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Monroe, Mich.: Do you believe that our continued military actions against Muslim jihadists are increasingly being seen as a war on Islam rather than a war on terrorism?

Daniel Benjamin: Good question. The invasion of Iraq has had a profound affect on America's image in the Muslim world. There is a broad array of polling that indicates exactly that: the war on terror is seen as a war on Islam. This is a consequence of the war for which there is no "public diplomacy" antidote, and it is weakening our strategic position. That is, there are lots of indications that more Muslims see the world through bin Laden's eyes and accepting his arguments about us.

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Monroe, Mich.: President Bush has tried to convince the American public that Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda hate our freedoms, but that is a simplistic and naive view of a complex issue. The U.S. overwhelming support of Israel, support for autocratic Arab regimes, and our invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan is to blame for our current predicament. Isn't our foreign policy to blame for the increasing hatred that many Muslims feel towards the United States?

Daniel Benjamin: There is no question that antipathy to American policies is driving the current wave of anti-Americanism in the Muslim world. We should make some distinction, however, about the terrorists themselves. Much of the strength of radical Islam comes also from a strong religious revival going on in Islam and it is also a reaction to a crisis of authority within the religion. And, another element is the deep sense of failure that permeates post-colonial Muslim society. It's a complex tangle of issues, but you're right that saying they hate our freedoms doesn't get us far. In fact, historically, most Muslims have envied and admired our freedoms, according to reliable polling.

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Jejune, Mont.: Is it significant that bin Laden is not shown on video? Does that coupled with the timing of the release demonstrate a weakened or strengthened operational command on bin Laden's part?

Daniel Benjamin: It suggests that he probably doesn't have easy access to video facilities at a minimum. Since Zawahiri has appeared on video, it is possible that bin laden does want to keep his face off the screen.

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Bowie, Md.: Do you believe that we have squandered world sympathy, following the 9/11 attacks, by invading Iraq? Do you think invading Iraq was worth the continued U.S. casualties and the loss of focus on capturing or killing bin Laden when he was in Afghanistan?

Daniel Benjamin: Invading Iraq was a first-class strategic blunder. We confirmed our most dangerous enemy's argument about us to his most important audience, squandered the world's trust and sympathy, wasted blood and treasure and diverted key resources to the wrong theater. We discuss all these issues at length in "The Next Attack". The problem now is that a rapid withdrawal from Iraq might precipitate another cataclysm, so we need to move cautiously. That said, I don't think U.S. policymakers have weighed the continuing damage to our image in the Muslim world and the recruitment of terrorists that it is causing in their calculations about how long we should stay.

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Washington, D.C.: I am liberal and generally disagree with this administration on most issues, however, I do agree that we should not accept any "truce" with bin Laden. He is no different than Hitler in the appeasement department. He needs a truce to regroup for a new attack, not because he doesn't want to attack or harm us.

Daniel Benjamin: The truce issue has been overblown in the reporting. Bin Laden isn't offering us a deal that has any advantages for us. He's saying the same thing he always has: Get out of the lands of Islam, and we'll stop attacking you. This time he just specified Iraq and Afghanistan. This kind of rhetoric has been standard for him for ages. One of his deputies once said we could have a new relationship once three or four million Americans were dead because then we'd be on an equal footing. this is their idea of a truce. Not clear why anyone focuses on this part of the message.

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Monroe, Mich.: The U.S. waged war against a fascist police state in WWII and fought a Cold War against a communist police state and sought to spread the concept of freedom throughout the world. Now, we are imprisoning people without charge, spying domestically on American citizens, and rendering terrorist suspects to countries that torture. Do you see this as an erosion of the America that has served as a beacon of hope for the world's downtrodden and oppressed?

Daniel Benjamin: The excesses in the war on terror have undermined our standing, given our enemies at lot to point at and weakened the sympathies of our allies. I'm deeply disturbed by the NSA scandal and the torture cases. I'm also dismayed that the tool of rendition has been used so recklessly. We did a lot of renditions during the Clinton administration, but we worked hard to ensure that those rendered only went to countries were they would be treated according to international human rights norms.

I should add that we're going to pay a price for these excesses if some of our intelligence partners, such as in Europe, are forced to stop cooperating fully with us by public outcry.

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Silver Spring, Md.: What do you think was the reason for bin Laden putting out the tape a couple of days before the 2004 election? Could it have been a plot to ratchet up fear and get Bush re elected? Bush is quite the recruiter for al Qaeda....

Daniel Benjamin: I wrote an article for Slate noting that the debate over whether bin Laden was pumping for Bush or Kerry was a bit misguided. He then wanted to take a kind of credit for anything that happened in the election -- if Kerry, then he had affected the outcome, if Bush, then he had shown once again that he was right about America's hatred for Muslims.

In the current tape, he is again primarily speaking to a Muslim audience, and he is taking credit for events in Iraq and the fall in the president's polls. We really misunderstand him chronically. Most of his communications are about supporting his claim for leadership in the Muslim world.

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Washington, D.C.: bin Laden states in the tape that Iraq has become a magnet for training talented fighters. Doesn't that make it difficult to actually win/end the war on terror? Even If top masterminds such as bin Laden and Al-Zarqawi are captured replacements are already waiting in the wings.

Daniel Benjamin: Yep. Iraq has galvanized radicals. It's not only attracting young men to fight in Iraq -- ones with no background in Islamist militancy -- but it has led to the emergence of an Iraqi jihadist movement, which will be there for years to come. It was Iraqis who bombed Amman in November. Interestingly, bin Laden and company have very little influence over events in Iraq. Al Qaeda is less and less the linchpin of the global jihadist insurgency.

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Detroit, Mich.: Based on your experience at the NSC, do you think that we should have been able to get bin Laden by now? Bush states that we are in a war against terror and people equate 9/11 with Pearl Harbor. Yet the time between Pearl Harbor and the end of WWII is shorter than the time between 9/11 and today.

Daniel Benjamin: It's pretty remarkable that we haven't gotten him. But we blew our best chances in early 2002 when we pulled our best special forces out of Afghanistan other key intelligence assets, drones etc. and moved them to the Iraqi theater. Now, we're dealing with the consequences.

Sorry, but I've got to run now. Thanks for great questions.

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