Airline Industry

Business Class columnist Keith L. Alexander was online to answer your questions about recent developments in the airline industry.

In today's column , he explores ideas from frequent flyers aimed at helping airlines find extra revenue.

A transcript follows.

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Keith L. Alexander: Hello everyone and welcome. It's 12 p.m. and we're shooting for an on-time depature. So let's get to the questions.

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Chantilly, VA: Has the message reached often inbred senior management that the "airline within an airline" concept (Metrojet, Song, United Shuttle, Ted, etc.) is doomed to failure?

Keith L. Alexander: Chantilly, you are correct, the airline graveyard is filled with several failed "airlines within an airline" concept. US Airways, Continental, Delta have all tried it and scrapped it. However, I spoke with United's CEO Glenn Tilton a few weeks ago and he seems very committed to Ted. In fact, United is adding more aircraft and flights to Ted. The advantage United has over the airline airlines is that United was able to cut its costs deep enough so that it could launch Ted without fear of losing money.

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Nashua, NH : What is your take on future mergers? Will the USAirways + Am. West marriage be successful? Do you think there is a 3rd partner in that marriage?

Keith L. Alexander: Nashua, something tells me you have some inside information on the airline industry based on your question. First, yes, I do believe there will be more consolidation. There has to be actually for the airlines to not just survive, but thrive. Keep an eye on Delta, United and Northwest in the coming year. Also, even more interesting, I bet you will see a third party addeed to the US Airways, America West combination. It may take a while for the airline to hammer out its labor contracts, but once it does, I bet you will see a third carrier jump on board. At least, that seems to be the sentiment of several airline execs I've spoken to of late.

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Dulles Airport: I'd like a lot of extra legroom and larger bathrooms and better food and showers and an office in the sky, but don't you dare raise the price of my ticket over $200!

Signed,

The Average Traveler

washingtonpost.com: Today's column: Passengers Order Up Pie-in-the-Sky Airline Amenities

Keith L. Alexander: I think it's safe to say that fares will remain low for some time. What airlines are looking to do these days is find ways to attract extra revenue without having to raise fares. That's why they're selling meals, pillows and anything else they can sell without putting themselves at a competitive disadvantage by raising their ticket prices.

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Rockville, Md.: Keith,

Love the column. I fly just about every week. It seems like on every flight, a passenger decides they need to get up while the seatbelt sign is on (usually just after take-off.) I can't remember the last time a flight attendant asked the person to return to their seat. What's the point of having the seatbelt sign and making all the announcements about observing it if there's no enforcement? Thanks.

washingtonpost.com: An archive of Keith's column's is online here .

Keith L. Alexander: Hello Rockville. I can't explain airline passenger behavior. However, I bet some passengers see the "fasten seatbelt" sign as only a suggestion; that is unless the cabin crew or flight attendants make an actual announcement to stay in your seats. Remember, often flight crews will announce they're keeping the fasten seatbelt sign illuminated but that passengers can move about the cabin if they wish, but if they're seated, they should keep their seat belt fastened.

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New York, NY: Is Song Airlines going out of business?

Keith L. Alexander: Song, which is owned by Delta, is scheduled to sing its last tune in May.

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Asheville, NC: Will Congress repeal/substantially weaken the Wright Amendment this year?

Keith L. Alexander: It's unlikely Congress will substantially repeal the Wright Amendment later this year. Last November, Congress allowed Southwest to fly to to Missouri, the eighth state that can be served directly from Dallas' Love Field. With that, it maybe a year or two before we see any further substantial moves. But then again, I've learned not to make a habit out of predicting what members of Congress will do.

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Washington DC: Keith, This is my first time joining your chat - so my apologies if this question has been addressed before. Its always baffled me how exactly airlines set their ticket prices and why they are so notoriously inconsistent from day to day, route to route. Do you think the industry might benefit from more pricing reliability? I'd certainly be more apt to travel on weekends if I could better predict my potential ticket price.

Keith L. Alexander: Hello first timer. The biggest two indicators of airline pricing is demand and competition. Airlines set prices first by the popularity of the route, time of day and destination. If history has proven that a certain route, time and destination can garner a higher price, than that's the price they will go with. However, if the time of day and destinations are less popular with travelers, then the price will be lower. Secondly, airlines set prices based on what their competitors, especially popular low cost, low fare competitors, charge.

In terms of pricing reliability, your best bet may be to look how much a fare was over a period of a month for the exact time and destination. However, don't use holiday weekends. Based on your study, you should be able to better predict how much the fare will be in the coming month. Hope that helps.

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McLean, VA: Comment: I was traveling last Thursday from Dulles to O'Hare on American. The flight was delayed due to high winds in Chicago. Many passengers were just connecting there (but that was my final destination). After so many stories about horrible airline service, it was my pleasure to watch Mary Anne Farley, an American Airlines counter agent, re-route (on her own initiative-- I asked) all passengers she could so they could make it to their final destinations. I arrived in Chicago midday right before the powerful thunderstorms (with lightning strikes) that effectively cancelled almost all flights. Mary Anne's quick thinking (and consideration) helped those people avoid getting stranded. Please find an opportunity in your column to send "appreciation" to those seasoned, mature airline personnel (who have been through so much) but still go the extra mile for the customer. I have traveled to 30 countries so I have a context within which to comment. I have had my share of frustrations and disappointments with lost luggage, etc. so I am very happy to be writing about something positive.

Christina

Keith L. Alexander: Mary Anne Farley, you get the airline employee shout out of the week. Actually, there are thousands of airline employees out there just like Ms. Farley who actually go above and beyond the call of duty for their passengers. These workers have a very difficult job today, especially with losing so much of their pay, pensions and job security. And while there are such enthusiastic employees out there, unfortunately, there are still some airline employees out there who, for whatever reason, seem less accomodating. But such employee dynamics exist in many industries unfortunately.

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Ashburn, VA: Is there any chance that Southwest will take another look at Dulles? If not is there a chance that Jetblue or Airtran will move on Dulles in a big way?

Keith L. Alexander: There have been rumors for years that Southwest may enter Dulles. But it's unlikely really. Most passengers in No. Va and DC who want to fly Southwest, will drive the 40 minutes or so to BWI. Southwest has recently spent millions of dollars on refurbishing its concourse out at BWI. I think SW is focusing on BWI as being its main DC, Md and VA hub for now.

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Minneapolis, MN: Do you think that the Northwest Pilots will go on strike in the next couple of weeks?

Keith L. Alexander: It's not looking good at either Northwest or Delta actually. Pilots at both airlines are threatening to walk rather than agree to pay cuts. Northwest, more so than Delta, however, seems to be in the most precarious position. The airline was already struck by its mechanics last year. There seems to be great resentment between management and labor at that airline. If Northwest's pilots do strike, it's unlikely the airline will be survive long. The question is, are these pilots willing to lose their careers in exchange for a pay cut? Some just may. Some pilots are actually willing to take their chances getting hired elsewhere, such as for a corporate jet, rather than give into management concessions.

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Reston, VA: If not Southwest, then who will get the old Independence Air gates at Dulles?

Keith L. Alexander: United is trying to purchase most of the gates there. Also, the gates are really for smaller, regional planes. So whoever else purchases those gates, it would have to be an airline that flies 50 to 75 seat, regional aircraft.

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Washington, DC: Keith, I read your column each week and enjoy watching you on when you appear on different television broadcasts. My question is: I am a USAir Frequent Flyer and recently took a trip on United. Am I able to use the miles that I collected on United on my USAir Frequent Flyer card? My understanding is that they've merged or are tied together somehow.

Thanks, Tonya

Keith L. Alexander: Thanks D.C. United and US Airways have a code-share program whereby passengers can earn and redeem miles on each carrier's flights. That program still exists, in spite of the fact that US Airways and America West merged.

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Richmond, VA: Do you see the top 3 low cost carriers (Southwest, AirTran and JetBlue) around in 5 years if so, will they continue to follow their business model....low cost?

Keith L. Alexander: A very astute question. I think you will see some mergers between the low cost carriers. That's going to be the only major way they can grow and compete, especially as the larger airlines merger and are better able to fight the low-cost carriers off from expanding in their markets. Air Tran already tried this with its failed attempt at acquiring most of the assets of bankrupt ATA Airlines.

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Oakton, VA: Why are airlines allowed to "oversell" flights? Meaning, sell more tickets than there are seats?

I almost got bumped off a flight despite having a ticket I had already paid full price for because of this tactic. There I was, without a seat while the plane boarded. How'd I get on the plane? They quickly shuffled me onto the plane after everyone boarded and immediately shut the gate so anyone else arriving late would be shut out. This was all very calculated and pretty upsetting.

Keith L. Alexander: This is a major source of frustration for travelers. Airlines say they overbook because of the no-show factor; meaning that they try to compensate for those airline passengers who don't show up and want to avoid losing that money. But in this age of passengers losing their money when they don't show up or being forced to pay extra to fly standby on another flight, it seems airlines no longer have to follow this practice. The Inspector General for the Department of Transportation urged the airlines in 2000 to stop overbooking and is currently investigating the airlines to see if they have in fact reduced the amount overbooking or not. That report is due this summer.

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Keith L. Alexander: wow, it's been an hour already. And the questions are still pouring in. My apologies to those of you whose questions were not answered. I'll try to get to them next time. Promise.

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