Israel To Elect Sharon's Successor

Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Kadima Party Expected to Win

Washington Post staff writer Scott Wilson was online Tuesday, March 28, at 2 p.m. ET to discuss the elections in Israel and how the selection of Ariel Sharon 's successor may impact the region. Two months after Palestinians voted Hamas into power, the new government is expected to take over this week.

The transcript follows.

____________________

Scott Wilson: Hi everyone and it's very nice to be with you. I've been visiting a few polling stations in West Bank settlements and in Israel on an important election day that, so far, has been characterized by a very low turnout. I'll get right to your questions.

_______________________

Albuquerque, N.M.: How is Ariel Sharon doing anyway?

Scott Wilson: Sharon's condition has changed little in the past few months and he remains unconscious - grave, but stable is how doctors describe him. He has cast a large shadow over the elections, though, and the party he founded, Kadima, is projected to win the most seats. But low turnout could hurt Kadima and help the smaller sectarian, religious and nationalist parties, whose followers are very devoted. Sharon's idea of unilateral withdrawals from the territories has been the big idea of the campaign, championed by his successor, Ehud Olmert.

_______________________

Bethesda, Md.: One of the parties in the election is campaigning on a platform of taking away Israeli citizenship from Israeli Arabs, as well as giving their land to a future Palestinian state. Is this idea going to go anywhere? How is it viewed by Israeli Jews and Arabs?

Scott Wilson: You're referring to Israel Beiteinu, or Israel is Our Home. It's leader, Avigdor Lieberman, has proposed redrawing Israel's recognized border in a way that puts a string of Arab towns in the Palestinian territories. He has said the Arab citizens of Israel are a more pressing problem - because of the demographic challenge to the Jewish majority they may pose down the road - than the Palestinian question. Israeli legal scholars say the plan is illegal and it has angered a number of political leaders, namely the head of Labor, Amir Perezt, who has said he will not serve in a government that includes Lieberman. But Lieberamn's party is doing very well in the polls - winning perhaps 10 seats or more - largely because it has attracted the support of immigrants from the former Soviet republics who are secular, conservative and looking for a new leader with Sharon's departure from the scene.

_______________________

Riverside, Calif.: About 20 percent of Israel's citizens are non-Jews. Yet the three biggest non-Jewish parties (Balad, Hadash and the United Arab List) are only expected to get eight seats in the new Knesset, or about 7 percent of the total. Why the gap?

Scott Wilson: Good question. Arab turnout is very low, largely because in the past there have been calls to boycott the elections from Arab intellectuals and a branch of the Islamic Movement in Israel. The boycott is a form of protest against the Jewish character of the state, which Arabs feel is discriminatory. Those boycott calls have not been as loud this year, and Islamic candidates (part of the United Arab List) are emphasizing religion in their campaign this year in the wake of Hamas' victory to energize young people who have boycotted in the past. They are hoping for a better showing today.

_______________________

Silver Spring, Md.: Given the significance of the Yisrael Beitanu party, with which other party will the Russians align themselves?

Scott Wilson: There's talk that a good showing by Israel Beiteinu and a poor showing by Likud could reshuffle the hawkish opposition to Kadima-Labor-Meretz government. That is, Likud might invite Lieberman, Israel Beiteinu's leader, to merge his seats with the party in exchange for leading it. If not that, the party would just be an important member of the opposition that would include Likud, the National Union and a few others.

_______________________

Wheaton, Md.: 15 years of the so-called "peace process" has lead to the creation of a terrorist-run state within the borders of Israel. Aside from the fact that this was all too predictable, why would anyone in Israel vote to continue down this same failed path?

Scott Wilson: Well, Sharon's unilateral withdrawal has been the centerpiece of this campaign. There hasn't been a peace process here since the start of the most recent intifada in Sept. 2000. For the record, "the terrorist-run state" you refer to is in the West Bank, which has not been annexed by Israel so is not inside its recognized borders.

_______________________

Chicago, Ill.: It is 9:20 p.m. in Jerusalem. When do we expect to hear early results?

Scott Wilson: There should be exit poll numbers available soon after 10 p.m. my time - that is, right after polls close.

_______________________

Harrisburg, Pa.: I presume, unlike in American districts, there will be no divisions voting for Patrick Buchanan in these elections. What are the mechanics of voting in Israel: is it paper ballot, lever machines, electronic machines, or what? Do the voters appear confident in election results from these procedures?

Scott Wilson: There are paper ballots here and I haven't heard any concerns about fraud relating to the system they use.

_______________________

Riverside, Calif.: A follow up: You say that election boycotts are losing popularity among Israel's non-Jewish citizens. What would Israeli politics be like if 20 percent of the Knesset seats were held by Christian or Muslim Israelis, in line with their share of the population?

Scott Wilson: Hard to say, but that would be 24 seats - essentially the second biggest party in parliament going by the way parties are projected to finish today. The Arabs would be a key player in any coalition or blocking minority. But could they successfully push to repeal some of the laws they consider discriminatory - change the national anthem, eliminate the Star of David from the flag? Probably not. But they would have more power in changing laws concerning employment and land ownership, most likely.

_______________________

Munich, Germany: With the growing population of Russian emigrees to Israel, are there signs in this election that this group is being galvanized together by Lieberman's "Israel Is Our Home" party?

What is the current population of Russian speakers in Israel?

Scott Wilson: Absolutely, we wrote a story a week or so ago about this phenomenon. There are about 1.3 million Russian-speakers in Israel.

_______________________

New York: In 1996, Netanyahu scored a surprising win despite the polls. In 1999, Shas surprised everyone with 17 seats. In 2003, it was Shinui.

What will be the surprise tonight?

Scott Wilson: Probably nothing dramatic. But with turnout low, the surprise might be that Kadima does worse than projected, Israel Beiteinu with an energized base will do better, one-issue party's like the Pensioners' Party will do very well (at least compared to how they were projected to place). As I said, nothing dramatic but slight changes from pre-election polls.

_______________________

Washington, D.C.: Ho do the candidates differ in their approach to dealing with Tehran, or do they largely speak with one voice on this particular issue?

Scott Wilson: Pretty much with one voice - that Iran will not be permitted to possess a nuclear bomb. But it really hasn't come up much in the campaign.

_______________________

washingtonpost.com: Russian Bloc in Israel Looks to a Strongman (Post, March 22)

_______________________

Winston-Salem, N.C.: Do you feel that the future West Bank border has already been approved by U.S. and will be implemented after the vote?

Scott Wilson: Olmert has said he will seek U.S. approval for the border he envisions, and US officials say they have not approved anything specific - that is, what settlements will be inside Israel and what settlements will be outside. But the US hasn't offered much criticism on what most people imagine will be the border. We'll have to wait and see.

_______________________

Scott Wilson: Thanks a lot to everyone who participated. Polls just closed and results should be coming in soon, so need to run. Will have them all in tomorrow's paper.

_______________________

Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.