Bush To Meet With Fox, Harper in Mexico

Leaders to Address Immigration, Trade and Border Security Issues

Washington Post staff writer Manuel Roig-Franzia , who is covering President Bush 's trip in Cancun, Mexico, was online Friday, March 31, at 1:00 p.m. ET to discuss the President's meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper and Mexican President Vicente Fox and their discussion of immigration, trade, border security and other issues.

The transcript follows.

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Washington, D.C.: Please comment on the upcoming elections in Mexico and how that could impact the Mexico-U.S.. relationship.

Manuel Roig-Franzia: The race may be tightening a bit. For months, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the PRD has been the frontrunner. But a recent poll showed Felipe Calderon of the PAN - current president Vicente Fox's party - closing the gap slightly. Robert Madrazo of the PRI, the party that ruled Mexico for seven decades until Fox was elected is running a distant third. Lopez Obrador is loosely labeled a "Leftist," a term that gets tossed around a lot in Latin America, but means different things for different people. Essentially, he's viewed as the favorite of the poor and his rhetoric regarding the U.S. has been the least cozy of any of the candidates. Ultimately, all the candidates realize that they have little control over the biggest issue in the U.S.-Mexico relationship: the U.S. Congress's position on immigration.

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Manuel Roig-Franzia: Hi all, "La Cumbre" is over. Pres. Bush, Mexican pres. Vicente Fox and Canadian Prime Minister Steven Harper will soon be ceding Cancun to its more customary guests: the bikini-contest entrants and Spring Breakers who pack discos filled with foam. Floor is open. We can talk about the tri-lateral meeting, U.S. - Mexico relations, the border, whatever's on your mind, including staging: how about that vest Harper wore to Chichen Itza? It's been getting plenty of buzz around here.

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Washington, D.C.: Buenos dias, were there any protests in Mexico along with this summit, like what took place in Pakistan? If you have a sense, how do ordinary Mexicans see this summit?

Manuel Roig-Franzia: Not many protestors. A tiny group--a couple dozen or so--banged drums and marched down the main street in downtown Cancun yesterday. Their main theme seemed to be an attempt to draw a comparison between Pres. Bush and Hitler, though that wasn't explained very fully.

Mexicans, like their leaders, had low expectations for this meeting. One Mexican diplomat predicted to me before the meeting that there would be no "Big Bang" development and judging from what we've heard, he was right.

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Arlington, Va.: Do Fox and Bush seemed strained with each other at all? The relationship has deteriorated so much, I wonder what the two hope to get out of this 'summit'.

Manuel Roig-Franzia: Neither of them came to the meeting in a strong position: Bush with declining poll numbers, Fox leaving office in December after the July elections, and weakened politically. They smiled for the cameras during that rare moment of tourism at Chichen Itza, but there was a lot of body language in public to indicate much chumminess.

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Annapolis, Md.: Please comment on efforts at border control in Mexico. How eager are they to prevent outward migration, and also how much effort do they put into stopping immigration from Central America into Mexico itself?

Manuel Roig-Franzia: Good question. One of the interesting points made by Fox in the just concluded news conference was that his government has been increasing security on Mexico's southern border. He said more than 200,000 Central Americans have been detained and returned to their countries by Mexican authorities.

He also said more than 100 suspects have been detained and jailed for human trafficking and that Mexican agents have been patrolling the interior, as well as the border, to stop illegal migration. That said, I just returned from a trip to the Arizona-Mexico border and did not personally observe much of a Mexican border security presence and in some of the towns were migrants stage, hundreds of men with backpacks and large bottles of water roam the streets, but there is little law enforcement presence.

Of course, sometimes there isn't much visible security presence on the U.S. side either. I drove across at Naco and there no visible agents, no one stopped my car and their was no impediment to me crossing, just a wide, wide open lane.

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Chicago, Ill.: How much input does the Canadian Prime Minister have? This seems like a two way dialogue, but maybe that's overgeneralizing.

Manuel Roig-Franzia: That probably is an overgeneralization, but I can see how someone would arrive at that conclusion since almost all the press attention is trained on Fox-Bush. Each of the presidents had separate meetings with each other. They later met as a group. Harper has real issues on the table: there is a major dispute about tariffs on Canadian wood and he's also concerned about a U.S. law requiring passports or "passport-like documents" to be presented by Canadians crossing into the U.S.

Harper is hearing loud complaints from Canadian businesses who fear the requirement will stifle trade. At the news conference, Harper said he and Pres. Bush had specific conversations about the Detroit-Windsor crossing.

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Washington, D.C.: Don't you miss working for the National desk and all the great people there?! Ciao

Manuel Roig-Franzia: Big hug back to whomever sent this! And, of course, I miss you, everyone of you. Come visit Mexico City.

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Va.: Since NAFTA, it seemed most Canadian companies moved to the U.S. than to Mexico. How are Canada-Mexico relations?

Manuel Roig-Franzia: Terrific question. Lots and lots of Mexicans fly up to Canada to work under an arrangement negotiated between the two countries. While the numbers are tiny compared to the number of Mexicans who cross-legally and illegally-into the U.S., there are those here in Mexico who think aspects of the Canada-Mexico arrangement could be applied to the U.S.-Mexico situation.

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Alexandria, Va.: If Fox is no longer in power after the elections, would Bush still be able to implement any agreements they reach effectively?

Manuel Roig-Franzia: Now there's a ticklish scenario. Fox's party is running second in the presidential polls--rising according to two new polls--so there would not be that institutional transfer of relations. Most analysts believe that if Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador - AMLO for short - wins, it's almost inevitable that he won't be as cozy with the U.S. and particularly with a Republican presidential administration as Fox set out to be.

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Philadelphia, Pa.: Is there any significant reason why this meeting is in Cancun or opposed to the Capitol or any reason why it is Mexico as opposed to the United States?

Manuel Roig-Franzia: To hear Pres. Bush talk, the meeting was placed here so that the White House traveling press corps could get in some sun by the pool. I leave it up to you to decide whether he means that or not.

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Ripon, Calif.: So, what's the next step? Will there be more summit meetings? How much influence does Canadian PR have in these proceedings?

Manuel Roig-Franzia: Ripon, Calif? My hometown! Almond capitol of the world.

The next step is that the three nations are pledging to get their heads together on the avian flu threat. They also announced another meeting to be held next year in Canada, so for all you out there worried about Canada not having any influence (and this seems to be a big concern of our chatters) maybe this is a good sign.

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Arlington, Va.: While not as bad as Katrina, Cancun was devastated by Hurricane Wilma last year. Have the President's commented at all about the rebuilding of Cancun and have there been any comparisons made to New Orleans?

Manuel Roig-Franzia: Surprisingly little said about that. I can tell you that many of the biggest hotels are still closed, though more than half have reopened and are filled with party-all-night Spring Breakers, as my friends in the press corps who haven't gotten any sleep can attest.

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Vancouver, Wash.: Hello Manuel Roig-Franzia, how are you? My question for you is that the illegal immigrants who are here, can't they go back to Mexico , get a passport and a work visa and then come back to work here in the U.S.? Also can't they just apply for a green card if they are legal or not?

Manuel Roig-Franzia: Sounds logical. But it's complicated, mainly complicated by the massive numbers who want to go to the U.S. Plus it's no simple matter to get a work visa. If it were, thousands of people would be lining up at the visa distribution center instead of paying coyotes huge sums to sneak them through the desert and across the border.

Pres. Bush said this afternoon that those who are in the U.S. illegally should not be prevented from gaining legal status, but that they should not "go to the head of the line."

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Anonymous: Why doesn't the media point out the effect of 70 years of one party rule in Mexico and the fact that real income redistribution measures there towards the poor would bring more economic justice to the poor and relieve the need to flee their native country for opportunities?

Manuel Roig-Franzia: I think there's general consensus--in the media, in the political world, in academia and in rights groups--that poverty in Mexico is the driving force behind the huge numbers of Mexicans - and for that matter, Central Americans -- who attempt to illegally enter the U.S. The minimum DAILY wage in Mexico is less than the minimum HOURLY wage in the United States. You do the math.

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Arlington, Va.: The U.S. media seems stuck on the immigration issue and is barely covering the other discussions going on there.

Any insights into how President Bush or PM Harper have reacted to President Fox's suggestion that the three North American countries unite to combat China's increasing economic power?

Manuel Roig-Franzia: You're right, immigration and U.S.-Mexico border security have been the marquee issues. It has been interesting to hear in this chat and in emails from many who feel the media has done a poor job covering the Canadians.

Pres. Bush mentioned at the news conference that the three leaders discussed ways of jointly fostering trade to compete with China and, also, India. He said those nations shouldn't be feared, but that the three big North American powers needed to find ways to ensure their competitiveness.

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Arlington, Va.: What is President Bush's relationship with Vicente Fox like? When they meet, do they discuss these issues in English or Spanish?

Manuel Roig-Franzia: Lots of speculation about their relationship. Back when they were both new presidents many people envisioned a "ranchero diplomacy." Think about it. A guy on the U.S. side who likes to clear brush at his Texas spread and a guy in Mexico who likes riding horses on his ranch (though there have been reports in the Mexican press that Fox doesn't ride much anymore because of back problems).

Six days before Sept. 11, Bush said the U.S.'s most important foreign relationship was with Mexico. That seems like a long, long, long time ago.

Terrific question about language... an often overlooked aspect of relations between nations and peoples. Harper--you see all you Canada boosters, I'm not ignoring your guy!--was far and away the grand champion linguist this afternoon. Boy did he glide easily from French to English and back again. Really makes you think the U.S. press should cover him more (woops, that's not my line, it's yours).

Anyway, Bush and Fox stuck mostly to their native tongues, though Bush did close his opening with remarks by saying "es todo," (that's all) followed by a big 'ol self-satisfied grin. So, we have to give Bush some points for effort.

Fox finished third in that department. A Canadian journalist asked to answer a question in English, but he plowed throwed his answer in puro Espanol. A bit surprising because I've heard Fox speak English before.

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Alexandria, Va.: Although this is not an issue that directly affects the U.S., has the subject of the high rate of murders in towns near the border come up? This seems like a major issue given the high rate of violence.

Manuel Roig-Franzia: Fox mentioned Nuevo Laredo and stated that federal authorities in Mexico are trying to get that volatile situation under control.

But that was nothing compared to the attention focused on the murder in Cancun of a Canadian couple in February. Imagine, the press got just six--JUST SIX--questions. And one of those questions was from a Canadian reporter who tried to wrest some details out of Fox and Harper about the case, including whether two people in Canada are suspects. Obviously this is a giant story in Canada. Fox wasn't in a giving mood, saying the case is under investigation. But Harper did pointedly note that there are no extradition requests at present and that none are anticipated.

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Rockville, Md.: Why does the issue of immigration always seem to be something the U.S. has to "fix" rather than Mexico allowing greater U.S. investment in their country to make Mexicans want to stay put?

Manuel Roig-Franzia: There are many people in Mexico who hold their country responsible in great part for not providing enough jobs and high enough salaries to dissuade people from illegal migration attempts.

Fox has done some tough talking lately about the future. He got huge play in the Mexican press recently when he declared that the U.S. would be "begging" for workers from Mexico in 10 years because he thinks Mexico will straighten out it's economy. Given the country's massive unemployment and poverty that comment was greeted by ridicule in some quarters.

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Vancouver, B.C.: They tried the guest worker thing in many countries in Europe (notably Germany) and aside from holidays, no one went back. Is there any talk of other immigration models taking place and what happened there? Or is the U.S. going unilateral on this one?

Manuel Roig-Franzia: I've been hearing a fair amount of chatter in Mexico about the so-called "Spanish-Portuguese" model. Both those countries, the proponents say, succeeded in stemming the flow of their workers out of the country to higher paying jobs in the rest of Europe. The problem is so dire that almost anything is on the table.

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washingtonpost.com: Thank you all for joining us today.

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Mexico City: Hi Manuel--I'd just like to echo your concern for Prime Minister's fashion choice yesterday: what was the deal with that fish vest? I heard a lot of snickers around these parts as well.

Manuel Roig-Franzia: For the record, I'm not taking a position on Harper's outfit--I'll leave that to people who have better fashion sense than me. But I can tell you that the snickering up there is echoed by the snickering down here...

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