Post Politics Hour
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion

Chris Cillizza
washingtonpost.com Political Columnist/Blogger
Wednesday, April 5, 2006 11:00 AM

Don't want to miss out on the latest buzz in politics? Start each day at wonk central: The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

washingtonpost.com Political Columnist/Blogger Chris Cillizza was online Wednesday, April 5, at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest news in politics.

The transcript follows.

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Chris Cillizza: Good morning everyone. The fallout from Rep. Tom DeLay's surprise resignation Monday night is still being assessed here in Washington but we've got the immigration debate heating up as well. Lots to chat about.

Let's get to it.

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Louisville, Ky.: At what point do you think Katherine Harris will spontaneously combust?

Chris Cillizza: At this point I wouldn't rule anything out when it comes to Harris and her Senate campaign in Florida.

She announced yesterday that she has hired the folks at Wilson Grand Communications, a respected media consulting firm, to handle her campaign. This represents a positive development in my mind but there is A LOT of work to do to close the wounds of the campaign.

Republicans still have no viable alternative to Harris despite the rumors that retired Gen. Tommy Franks is considering the race. Unless they can find someone quickly, it looks like Harris will have the nomination to herself.

And, if that's the case, Sen. Bill Nelson is an almost sure-thing to be re-elected.

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Chris Cillizza: Sorry folks...computer malfunction...back at it.

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Goleta, Calif.: OK, Chris, just out of sheer curiosity: Did you have any idea that Tom DeLay would resign?

Chris Cillizza: Yes, we had some inkling that it was coming.

In the weeks leading up to the announcement, there had been some talk among Republican operatives that he might not make it until November.

On Monday, those rumors were everywhere -- a sure sign that something was going on. We were ready for the official announcement as I think our great coverage (including a photo gallery of DeLay in Congress and links to all of our DeLay coverage) showed.

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Anonymous: Do you feel any sort of cosmic justice taking place for DeLay and Katherine Harris? Their roles in Florida 2000 were despicable, and profoundly unfair and undemocratic. I'm reminded of the fact that the Germans who signed the Versailles Treaty were all dead within 15 years. Is there any justice in DeLay's and Harris' situations at present?

Chris Cillizza: I am not comfortable passing eternal damnation on Katherine Harris or Tom DeLay.

For Democrats, the demise of both has been greeted with glee -- although in DeLay's case his resignation makes it harder for Democrats to win his Republican-leaning 22nd district.

At the same time, many Republicans believe strongly in the views espoused by DeLay and Harris and blame their struggles on some combination of the Democratic establishment and the media.

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Arnold, Md.: I am a registered Republican and I was amazed at Tom DeLay yesterday with his various interviews. The man shows no remorse over doing anything wrong. Am I wrong or is he going to ignite the religious right and will we be bombarded will daily speeches to the faithful from Tom DeLay? This is not the Republican party I feel that represents me. To possibly imply that he will become a lobbyist is even more frightening. He will have access to the very people who he has "hammered" in Congress. Will the American public stand for that? This is beyond belief - break the law - keep millions of dollars from campaign war chests - and then become a lobbyist what is wrong with this picture.

Chris Cillizza: DeLay has been unrepentant in the interviews he has granted since announcing his plans to resign.

He has and continues to believe that his problems are the creation of Democrats who despise him for his effectiveness and a media that has unfairly targeted him.

I think DeLay could well have a future as a Republican consultant since he remains a beloved figure among the most ardent of social conservatives.

Remember, memories in Washington are short. In a few years DeLay will likely not be nearly as radioactive as he appears to be at the moment.

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New York, N.Y.: Houston Chronicle headline says "DeLay's planned departure throws GOP into political disarray." The Chicago Tribune says "DeLay's exit a relief for GOP." What do you think?

Chris Cillizza: Good question.

Assessing the political impact of DeLay's departure has been a constant task for reporters and editors since Monday night.

I think the short answer is we simply don't know yet.

Here's what we do know.

Having DeLay off the ballot in Texas's 22nd almost certainly improves Republicans' chances of holding onto the seat in the fall. Knowledgeable Democrats were convinced that DeLay simply could not be re-elected and acknowledge, privately, that a generic Republican without the baggage that DeLay brought to the race has at least an even money chance at victory.

Outside of the 22nd congressional district, Tom DeLay was not universally known so it's not clear whether his departure has any impact on the Democrats' "culture of corruption" argument.

With the trial of former Bush Administration official David Safavian coming up in May and the ongoing Abramoff investigation, it seems to me that Democrats still have plenty of evidence to make the corruption case without DeLay.

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Arlington, Va.: Would the likely GOP nominee to DeLay's seat be one of his primary challengers or a hand-picked successor? Whose in line?

Chris Cillizza: There is a lot of confusion right now in Republican circles about how DeLay will be replaced on the ballot.

DeLay has said he will wait until late spring or early summer to formally resign, meaning that Texas Gov. Rick Perry need not call a special election to fill his seat.

However, there is a provision in Texas election code that authorizes Perry to call a special election at anytime if "emergency" circumstances arise. Does the Delay resignation qualify as emergency circumstances? It's anyone's guess.

Should there not be a special election, a small group of district committeemen and women are likely to handpick the nominee for the fall. The names I have heard are Harris County Judge Bob Eckels, Sugar Land Mayor David Wallace and attorney Tom Campbell, who placed a distant second to DeLay in the March 7 primary.

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Washington, D.C.: Chris C: Remember, memories in Washington are short. In a few years DeLay will likely not be nearly as radioactive as he appears to be at the moment. Excellent point, Chris. Less than ten years later, who'd have thought Newt Gingrich would be taken seriously as a political analyst and commentator?

Chris Cillizza: And potential presidential candidate....

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Annapolis, Md.: I noticed that John McCain had a testy exchange with Jon Stewart last night and got booed at a union event yesterday. Smart moves for his run for the GOP nomination. Maybe not so smart for the general election. Isn't going to Liberty University a little over the top.

Chris Cillizza: McCain is a smart politician and learned his lessons from 2000.

In that race, he became a beloved candidate in the eyes of everyone but those who actually cast the votes in Republican primaries: conservatives.

This time around, McCain is going out of his way to show that voting bloc that they misunderstood him in 2000 and he is a conservative at heart.

While many Democrats (and even some Republicans) roll their eyes at McCain's ardent support for the president or his decision to speak at Liberty, it is probably a pretty sound strategy for McCain.

He has already shown he can win over Democrats and Independents, now he needs to prove he can win among Republicans. Will his move to the right alienate some of his past supporters in the middle and the left? Sure. But McCain will have a whole general election campaign to get them back if he can convince Republicans he is one of them.

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Mechanicsburg, Pa.: "In a few years DeLay will likely not be nearly as radioactive as he appears to be at the moment".

Assuming he's not in prison.

Chris Cillizza: One viewpoint on DeLay's future.

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Akron, Ohio: RE: delay showing no remorse. DeLay has not been found guilty in any court of law. what happened to the presumption of innocence? If people are looking for DeLay to show remorse over the highly acrimonious air in Congress, then there needs to be remorse shown from both sides of the aisle.

Chris Cillizza: And another.

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Silver Spring, Md.: Any indication that Ney may be next? When is the deadline for the Ohio primaries? Will he also wait until after the primary so that the state party instead of the votes get to choose a candidate in case he has to leave (for prison?).

Chris Cillizza: GREAT question.

I'll be writing about the impact of DeLay's resignation on Ney more fully on The Fix tomorrow morning but here's my quick thought.

Ney has a nuisance primary challenge on May 2. Assuming he wins that race, there will be considerable pressure on him from Republican circles to give up his seat ala DeLay.

Ney has previously said, however, he would run even if he was indicted in connection with the Abramoff investigation so he might not be willing to listen to the entreaties of his colleagues.

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Arlington, Va.: I was so pleased to see Dan Balz's coverage of Senator Feingold's support for gay marriage. I thought to myself, it's really too bad that for once we have an honest, independent thinking, anti-discriminatory politician, and the only thing he's going to get is destroyed in the primaries. What a waste.

Chris Cillizza: Dan Balz is as good as it gets when it comes to political reporters.

As for Feingold, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss his chances on the national stage.

No question he starts the race as a heavy underdog but his outspoken opposition to the war in Iraq, his lonely fight against the Patriot Act and his call for a censure of President Bush over the warrantless wiretapping of Americans makes a nice stump speech for a candidate hoping to appeal to the party's most liberal voters.

Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean was dismissed as an also-ran in 1997 and 1998 but by the time Iowa arrived, he was the frontrunner. Of course, we all know what happened there but....I think Feingold could well be the chosen Dean heir in 2008.

If he can tap into Dean's vast Internet money operation, the quirky Wisconsin Senator could be a force to be reckoned with.

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Anonymous: Hi Chris, I didn't see this mentioned in your response about DeLay's resignation, why is that? DeLay truly believe that this whole ordeal is a witch hunt, a left-wing conspiracy designed by the Democrats who do not like DeLay's conservative Christian values.

Chris Cillizza: Sorry if I failed to mention that.

Yes, DeLay has repeatedly said that he is the victim of a liberal witch hunt aimed at him because of his effectiveness in Congress.

Let the record be corrected.

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Baltimore, Md.: Chris,

What do you think of the Congressional Race for the open 13th District in Ohio. There is a 8 way democratic primary that no one has any clue of how it is going to come out, especially with different front runners on different scales (Sawyer, Cafaro, Sutton, Grace) and depending on the winner of that, there could definitely be a competitive general election seat. What is your take on it? Thanks.

Chris Cillizza: Let's do a few non-DeLay House questions...

The 13th district is an interesting race. Despite the predicted problems for Republicans there as a result of the ongoing scandals surrounding outgoing Gov. Bob Taft, many national Goers see this Akron-area district as a potential pickup.

They are united behind Lorain Mayor Craig Fultin while, as you point out, Democrats have an extremely crowded primary field.

Until the Democratic nominee is chosen, it's tough to handicap just how realistic Republicans' chances are here. Kerry did win with 56 percent here in 2004 though so no matter who Democrats choose this is an uphill race for Republicans.

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Syracuse, N.Y.: What do you think about the Democrats chances of taking some seats in upstate New York?

Chris Cillizza: Democrats believe Upstate New York could hold the key to their chances at a majority come November.

Empire State Republicans have failed to recruit credible candidates against governor in waiting Eliot Spitzer (D), the state's current attorney general, or Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

A whitewash at the top of the ticket could well push out a few House Republicans sitting in competitive seats.

Among the targets are Reps. John Sweeney, Sue Kelly, and James Walsh as well as the seat of retiring Rep. Sherwood Boehlert.

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Santa Rosa, Calif.: I get the sense that the political climate is ripe for a wave of Democratic victories in November. However, when I look at individual races it seems that the Democrats and the DCCC aren't paying attention to fringe races that may seem unwinnable at first glance but could be one with a national wave of change. Jim Walsh's seat would be one example.

Do you see any accuracy in this theory?

Chris Cillizza: Well, I do think the DCCC is paying attention to Walsh's race in the Syracuse area.

He is being challenged by former Congressional staffer Dan Maffei and while this district is certainly not near the top of any takeover list I've seen, it is certainly in the conversation if Democrats hope to take over the majority.

The fact that Maffei decided to run -- a credible candidate with an ability to raise money -- should be credited to the DCCC in part.

Taking advantage of a wave election is largely about ensuring that there are reasonable alternatives running in fringe seats that are not considered to be competitive in a neutral election year.

The DCCC's ability to challenge people like Rep. Nancy Johnson in Connecticut or Sweeney in New York shows they are mindful of how to take advantage of the possibilities presented by a wave.

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Ft. Belvoir, Va.: If Harris continues her Senate quest, does that mean her House seat is up for grabs? Would she be disqualified from running for her seat? I ask since Sen Lieberman was able to run for VP and his Senate at the same time under Connecticut election laws.

Chris Cillizza: When she formally entered the race last year, Harris announced she would leave her 13th district House seat.

A race is already well under way to replace her. Republicans should have a leg up in this district but Democrats believe they could have a chance if the national environment persists through November.

Republicans currently have a four-way primary while the Democratic side features a rematch of the 2004 primary between Christine Jennings and Jan Schneider.

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Boston, Mass.: If John Doolittle gets sufficiently embroiled in the Abramoff/Wilkes scandals, is there -any- chance CA-4 can become competitive for the Democrats? Or is it just too Republican to switch?

Chris Cillizza: Probably not.

President Bush received 61 percent of the vote in Doolittle's 4th district in 2004 -- 17 points better than he did statewide.

Almost none of California's 53 congressional districts are even marginally competitive, a development you have an incumbent-friendly redistricting plan in 2001 to thank for.

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Nashville, Tenn.: Do you think President Bush's visit to Bridgeport today will help or hurt Rep. Shays in Connecticut's 4th district? The local media seems divided on this point.

Chris Cillizza: Shays' opponent -- former Westport First Selectwoman Dianne Farrell -- has made a major issue out of the war in Iraq and was slated to offer the official Democratic prebuttal of Bush's visit to the district today.

Shays has made a career out of being a different kind of Republican -- a maverick for lack of a better word.

The visit by Bush is sure to remind voters that he is a Republican and might offer Democrats a few compelling visuals to show just how close the two are.

If Democrats want to be back in the majority in the 110th Congress this is a seat they have to have but Shays is a savvy politician and won't go down without a fight.

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Washington, D.C.: First of all, thank you for the best political blog on the Web - it's very addicting!

If the election were held today, how many seats would you say the Dems would gain in each House? What can they do to improve/maintain that number? Thanks again.

Chris Cillizza: I'll end on this note.

First, thanks for the kind words about The Fix. It is incredibly fun (and addictive) to write so I'm glad it's enjoyable to read too.

I am a notoriously poor prognosticator (I came in close to dead last in a tournament pool that had 250 entries) -- so take this with a grain of salt but hear it goes.

If the election were held today I think Democrats would make high single digit or low double digit gains but come up short of the majority.

That said, there is no question winning the majority is a possible scenario given the current political atmosphere and the number of candidates Democrats have recruited in fringe races.

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Chris Cillizza: That's all folks. Thanks as always for your great questions and make sure to check out The Fix whenever you need a political, well, fix.

Chris

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