Iranian President Announces Uranium Enrichment

Move Causes Concern Among U.S., Allies

Hooshang Amirahmadi , director of the American Iranian Council , was online Wednesday, April 12, at noon ET to discuss Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 's announcement Tuesday that Iran has enriched uranium. Ahmadinejad claims the technology would be used for power plants, but the move has added to concerns about Iran's desire to posses a nuclear weapon. White House Spokesman Scott McClellan said Iran is "moving in the wrong direction," and that the U.S. will consult with allies on how to respond if it continues.

The transcript follows.

VIDEO: Iran Takes Step Toward Nuclear Power

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Philadelphia, Pa.: Mr. Amirahmadi, how can the West or anyone NOT be concerned with Iran's nuclear activities when the Iranian president has repeatedly called for the destruction of Israel as well as the apocalyptic preparing for the arrival of the 12th Imam? Please be direct in your reply.

Hooshang Amirahmadi: I believe and have said that that the West must remain concerned about Iran's nuclear programs. However, to just remain concerned will not solve the problem. The crisis has no military solution either. I have advocated engagement but one that offers "big sticks" along with "big carrots." Iran must be then given a clear option to take one!

On Ahmadinejad, his statements are to be condemned, but I must also note that the man is not the one who makes war and peace decisions for Iran, and strategic policies like ones toward the US and Israel are not determined at his level. Those bigger decisions, including the nuclear matter, are decided by the Leader, the Expediency Council, and the National Security Council of the country. Iran has a 20-year "Vision Plan" that has set directions for the President to follow. He has some degree of autonomy but cannot disregard those directives.

I must also say that Iran's Israeli policy has NOT changed since Ahmadinejad has taken the presidential job. It remains the same as before and it is NOT a policy to destroy Israel. Their official policy is a one-state solution decided by the voting population of Jews and Palestinians. At times, however, they have indicated that they can also live with a two-state solution if that were to be desired by the Palestinians.

All these is not to say that the Islamic Republic has not been or is not hostile to Israel. It is. But that hostility has been managed within a given political and diplomatic border.

I believe any normalization of relations between Iran and Israel will wait until the US and Iran have normalized relations and the Arab world (the Muslim world) has settled problems with the Jewish state. Let us hope that that day comes sooner than later.

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New Brunswick, N.J.: Mr. Amirahmadi, thank you for your time today. What is most troubling about the recent development has been the apocalyptic statements about the return of the 12th Imam and the repeated calls for the destruction of Israel from the Iranian president. Do you agree now that the Iranians have the technology to produce nuclear arms, should they choose, that the constant rhetoric out of Iran causes concern for the world?

Hooshang Amirahmadi: Mr Ahmadinejad is a calculative man. He is also an ambitious person that have to run a country dominated by powerful clergies. His reference to Twelve Imam is directed at neutralizing that power and gain legitimacy from it. In really, and as the experience in the last 7 months show, he has not been more religiously strict then his predecessors. No new religious restrictions have been imposed and the population does not feel that a major change in that direction has taken place. Note also that he does not any more speak about imams but about nuclear technology and other mundane issues.

I certainly think that the Iranian rhetoric is extremely harmful, first to their own national security and interest, and then, of course to Israeli's and American's. The US must make it clear for Iran that perception is reality in international relations and that its rhetoric is a cause of serious concern and will not be tolerated. Again, the way to communicate the concern should not be only through showing them the "big sticks" but also the "big carrots."

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Bethesda, Md.: Dr. Amirahmadi, thank you for the balanced response to the first question. I wasn't sure what to expect since I'm unfamiliar with your organization. But I think toning down the rhetoric and presenting reality and facts is the best way to go. It's important for people to understand the difference between hysteria/hype that are so frequently fed to them by the press and the practical realities of the current Iranian regime.

Hooshang Amirahmadi: Thanks for the kind words. Yes, we must distinguish fact from fiction in US-Iran relations. The American Iranian Council (http://www.american-iranian.org/) advocates understanding and dialogue not just between the US and Iran but also between Iran and Israel, as well as other states. We believe the best way to resolve international disputes is through dialogue and better understanding. Diplomacy is all about DIALOGUE, not political maneuvering. Demonizing each other is just not the way to go in our multicultural global community.

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Waldorf, Md.: Why are we assuming that these people are not telling the truth? Has the U.S. given them some kind of bomb making materials in the past and that is why we are so adamant about this? To me the U.S. is coming across as bullying these people. Why don't we back off a little bit. Or is there a hidden agenda that only certain people know and the public, of course, is the last to know?

Hooshang Amirahmadi: There is no hidden agenda! The US and Iran have had serious difficulty in the last 26 years. It all started with the revolution (which was made against past US interventions in Iran and against "its" dictator in Tehran). The nuclear matter is only one among such problems. There are issues of terrorism, peace in the Middle East and human rights/democracy. Over time, the situation has become even more complicated (e.g. the US situation in Iraq). Please note that nations have neither enemies nor friends; they have interests. It is only unfortunate that the governments in Tehran and Washington (as well as in Tel Aviv) have not looked deeper into the tremendous common interests that exist here and have instead focused on differences. This must change for the situation to normalize.

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New York, N.Y.: From the outside, it looks like the Iranian government has several semi-independent power centers who compete with each other, as we saw in the struggle between the previous president and the conservatives over reform. With so many power centers, what's the chance that nuclear material could get into the "wrong hands" that would want to make a dollar or improve their position in the power struggle through unwise use?

Hooshang Amirahmadi: Yes, there is power struggle within the regime, but the system as a whole has also followed a certain logic that should minimize the fear of an "Iranian bomb" getting into the wrong hand. Let me just emphasize that Iran should NOT be allowed to have a bomb to begin with.

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Munich, Germany: I don't recall India or Pakistan making press announcements on their nuclear progress before they developed the bomb, but perhaps this is because they weren't in the spotlight at the time.

Do you see any parallels between Iran's nuclear program and India's or Pakistan's nuclear programs?

Hooshang Amirahmadi: No parallel! Iran is under world watch and pressure as it moves forward. They put the show to achieve a few things: first to boost the national pride and gain support from the Iranian public; second, to tell the world that it should deal with Iran like the way it has dealt with North Korea; and third, to tell the world that they are for peaceful development of nuclear technology; and finally, they wanted to tell the US that they are ready to talk and make deal over the nuclear matter.

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Arlington, Va.: How can this not be a good move for Iran? If they can successfully develop nuclear weapons, they will significantly reduce the possibility that the U.S. or any other country can use military force against them. Shouldn't every country with the means use this strategy?

Hooshang Amirahmadi: Right but only if the US continues to be an existential threat. If the situation was to change, the regime would not need a bomb to protect itself. Let me also say that ultimately, the threat to the regime is internal. As long as the country is in the grip of dictatorship, the regime will not rest in peace. Note that the former Soviet Union had many bombs but they did not save the system. Iran will not be an exception. Ultimately, it is the public legitimacy that will make the regime live or die.

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Arlington, Va.: Dr. Amirahmadi: Thanks very much for your time today. Although the rhetoric of Mr. Ahmadinejad is undiplomatic, to say the least, can you cite any example of Iran attacking any other countries in the last 200 years?

Regards.

Hooshang Amirahmadi: No I cannot cite! Iran has not invaded any country in the last 250 years (lat was India in the middle of the eighteen century I believe). Yet, throughout that time Iran has been invaded a few times. The fact is anytime Iran has been strong, its region has been stable; any time Iran has been weak, its region has been unstable. The revolution in 1979 weakened Iran and that encouraged Saddam Hossein to invade Iran; Saddam then invaded Kuwait and that led to the first war against Saddam which then let to the second war against him. You see now in what mess the region is today!

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Washington, D.C.: I try to look at this situation from Iran's perspective: it seems to see itself as important power in a region dominated--at least in terms of nuclear capability--by Israel. So I think: why wouldn't Iran want to develop its own nuclear capability, even despite international protests? I would think our best strategy would be to work with Iran so that it develops this power responsibly and appropriately, as it claims it wants to do, rather than engage in saber-rattling.

Hooshang Amirahmadi: I agree! We must engage Iran and make sure that it comes to our side again, and it will in due course. The two nations have a lot in common and we must utilize those assets. We must also consider the fact that Israelis have a legitimate concern about Iran's words and actions. It is important that any US-Iran rapprochement will have the Israeli interest and support as well. They are a fact there and we must not forget that they also have a right! More importantly, they have also the power to be helpful or harmful to the relations.

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Washington, D.C.: Much has been said of value here about US reactions and background to these new statements, but what about Russia and China. They were supportive of no sanctions against Iran and advocates of patience. Yet with this bold declaration of a violation of the Security Council's wishes, how will their views change? Also, you have provided some interesting insights on internal Iranian structure and politics. Could you elaborate on their relationships with Russia and China in an equally constructive way? Thank you!

Hooshang Amirahmadi: I am running out of time and Iran-Russia and Iran-China relations deserve a longer response. Bottom line, if Iran is looking eastward it is because the westward direction is closed to it. Iranians have important historical problems with Russians and they do not consider Chinese more than customers for their oil. If the US and Iran could find a way to work together, Russia and China will fade away from the Iranian live!

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Fishers, Ind.: Mr. Amirahmadi, do you think the population in Iran is supportive of the role that the regime has taken on as being the most vocal opponent of Israel? Thank you.

Hooshang Amirahmadi: Some do but certainly not all Iranians. The fact is Iranians have a "victim culture" and support the "victimized." Think of the Third Imam that was murdered 1400 years ago and Iranian still mourn his tragic and unfair death in the hands of the Arab rulers of the time! Iranians see Israel as victimizing the Palestinians and that bothers them (culturally not just politically). The regime uses this culture to its political advantage in relations to not just Israel but the US and its opposition as well.

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Fishers, Ind.: Mr. Amirahmadi, do you think the population in Iran is supportive of the role that the regime has taken on as being the most vocal opponent of Israel? Thank you.

Hooshang Amirahmadi: Some do but certainly not all Iranians. The fact is Iranians have a "victim culture" and support the "victimized." Think of the Third Immam that was murdered 1400 years ago and Iranian still mourn his tragic and unfair death in the hands of the Arab rulers of the time! Iranians see Israel as victimizing the Palestinians and that bothers them (culturally not just politically). The regime uses this culture to its political advantage in relations to not just Israel but the US and its opposition as well.

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Fishers, Ind.: Mr. Amirahmadi, do you think the population in Iran is supportive of the role that the regime has taken on as being the most vocal opponent of Israel? Thank you.

Hooshang Amirahmadi: Some do but certainly not all Iranians. The fact is Iranians have a "victim culture" and support the "victimized." Think of the Third Immam that was murdered 1400 years ago and Iranian still mourn his tragic and unfair death in the hands of the Arab rulers of the time! Iranians see Israel as victimizing the Palestinians and that bothers them (culturally not just politically). The regime uses this culture to its political advantage in relations to not just Israel but the US and its opposition as well.

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Erie, Pa.: Hello Dr. Amirahmadi and thank you for your time to respond to these questions. I have a few.

What do you think of the fact that the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty allows states the right to use nuclear power to for peaceful means on the condition that they will not not develop a nuclear weapon? If Iran allows all inspectors to visit all sites and pledge not to develop a weapon could the use allow Iran to develop weapons? Why does the US allow Israel to have nuclear weapons?

Also, don't you think that the U.S.'s aggressive posture with Iran (including the past support of Iraq with Iraq's war with Iran), and the U.S.'s diplomatic posture with the nuclear North Korea, forces Iran to want to develop the bomb? Plus, what gives the U.S. administration credibility when dealing with nuclear issues when it itself has violated the NPT, states that some clauses do not apply to it and has rewarded India, country that did not sign the NPT and has developed nuclear weapons, with nuclear technologies?

Thank you.

Hooshang Amirahmadi: International relations are not about treaties but interests and security. When they are jeopardized, treaties will be violated. NPT has serious flaws and has been even more terribly implemented.

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Bethesda, Md.: What "big sticks" and what "big carrots" will help turn this situation around?

Hooshang Amirahmadi: Please send me a private e-mail so that I can send you an article I have on this. No time to answer today. The article is in a book that AIC has published (hooshang@amirahmadi.com). I also have a Web site: http://www.amirahmadi.com/.

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Atlanta, Ga.: Mr. Amirahmadi,

In terms of a timeframe, how long would it take for the "enrichment" to move into a threat of a potential bomb? Given the news yesterday, are there more variables at hand before we have reason for concern?

Hooshang Amirahmadi: At no time; it is a matter of intention.

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Grand Rapids, Mich.: I know this is hindsight, but has anyone posited whether there would be a crisis with Iran right now if Saddam Hussein had remained in power? Wouldn't the emergence of Iran as a nuclear power primarily be -his- problem? And wouldn't that have dampened the notion of a "Shiite Crescent" emerging in the Middle East?

Hooshang Amirahmadi: I believe the experience of the war with Iraq was critical in the IR's decision to go nuclear. Note that the whole world sat and watched Saddam to invade Iran, destroy its towns and use chemical weapons against the people. The US unfortunately said nothing and the UN also remained indifferent.

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Toronto, Ontario, Canada: It seems that every move Iran makes is designed to antagonize the West. Is the government of Iran so desperate to deflect attention away from internal discontent that it would risk a way?

Hooshang Amirahmadi: The Iranian environment these days is a military-security environment in which military-security people have the final say. They say things not necessarily based on any rationale or calculated risk but in reaction to the similar environment around them. They are often reactive and not proactive.

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Fairfax, Va.: Could we foresee the real confrontation between U.S. & Iran in the near future?.

iranandworld.com

Hooshang Amirahmadi: Sorry, this is the last question I can answer. I must run for another interview with NBC News! I will be pleased to participate again and or answer your questions privately. Please do not hesitate to communicate. Thanks for the opportunity to talk to you all. Hope to hear from you!

I believe, as things stand, the "no peace no war" state of affairs that have been maintained between Iran and the US can no longer be sustained. We are at a turning point, between peace and war. If peace is not given a chance, war will certainly follow (not necessarily full scale -- a la Iraq). For peace to have a chance, the two governments must begin an honest dialogue and the US as a superpower has a responsibility to begin the process. Again, the solution is for the US to offer Iran both "big sticks" and "big carrots" and make Iran to take one. Iran will take the offer, and because Iran is in no position to fight the US, it will take the "big carrots," I am certain.

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