Post Politics Hour
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion

Michael Fletcher
Washington Post White House Reporter
Thursday, April 20, 2006 11:00 AM

Don't want to miss out on the latest buzz in politics? Start each day at wonk central: The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

Washington Post White House reporter Michael Fletcher was online Thursday, April 20, at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest in political news.

The transcript follows.

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Michael Fletcher: Good morning. Let's get started.

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Seattle, Wash.: Obligatory rave for your work, Michael!

Oh, and when can we expect the announcement that Karl Rove has been indicted? This week or next?

Michael Fletcher: I'll take any rave I can get. As you know, Rove remains under investigation by special prosecutor Fitzgerald. But it is unknown how that will end.

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Manhattan, Kan.: A Washington Post article mentioned that if things do not go well for Republicans in November Bush will be a lame duck. Is this not already true?

Michael Fletcher: Well, that argument can be made. The war in Iraq has dragged his popularity--and that of congressional Republicans--down to a point where GOP lawmakers are increasingly reluctant to follow Bush's lead. That has crippled Bush's agenda, and rather than talking about huge changes like remaking Social Security, he is out campaigning for things like more science teachers in the nation's high schools. But the larger picture is that most often a president's influence tracks directly with his approval ratings. Bush is famously dismissive of polls, but even he can't escape that fact. But polls change. The fact is that every president since Johnson has experienced low approval ratings. Some recover and some don't. It remains to be seen which camp Bush will end up in.

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Chicago, Ill.: I'm a Dem, but have an appreciation for John McCain...lately, he has been on an appeasement campaign with the far right, whom he logically needs to win the GOP primary. Does he have a realistic shot at the nomination? Can he pacify both sides of the political aisle?

Michael Fletcher: I think McCain has to be considered among the front runners, at least right now. Look at how Bush ran far to the right after his rocky start in the 2000 campaign--only to campaign for--and win--the presidency as a "compassionate conservative." Bill Clinton did his famous rebuke of Sister Souljah, only to go on to be metaphorically called "the first black president." So there is precedent.

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Boston, Mass.: There are some major long-term macroeconomic issues that concern me, like the housing bubble, consumer debt, adjustable rate mortgages, and peak oil -- I know in many ways these are business section issues, but they're also obviously fundamental to politics. I think it's clear that our current metrics of economic health are broken -- when the metrics we use indicate a healthy, strong economy but the public opinion about the economy is negative I think it means that better (or different) metrics are needed.

Does that make sense?

Michael Fletcher: I don't know that we need new metrics. Perhaps, what we need to do is focus on those that affect average individuals. Despite rosy macroeconomic numbers, many Americans are feeling anxious about their economic position--and with good reason. Increasing numbers of pensions are in trouble. Poverty is up in the nation, inflation outstripped wage growth during a recent 12-month period and median household income has declined for five straight years.

I think those measures help explain the anxiety that is out there.

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Seattle, Wash.: What are the odds that the White House will either open up to the press more or less with the changes after McClellan departure? It seems that the Executive Office has doled out information only to those members and agencies of the press who are willing to trumpet the White House agenda.

Michael Fletcher: My guess is that the White House will become more open with the press--but not because of McClellan's departure. Scott is a good guy who simply carried out the orders of his betters. But I think that Bush's continued political problems will make such cooperation seem to be in the best interest of the White House.

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Cabin John, Md.: The title of this chat is "POST Politics", right? So shouldn't we ask you a question about politics at The Post? How do the REAL reporters at The Post feel about the recent Pulitzers, such as the one for the well, you know, fashion reporter?

Michael Fletcher: Everyone I know at the Post applauds Robin Givhan's Pulitzer. She is an incredibly talented journalist and writer who won in an appropriate category--criticism. Her columns are witty and insightful and she is, of course, "a real journalist."

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New York, N.Y.: Mr. Fletcher:

I read that Al Gore has hired a well-known political strategist lately. Is that an indication he's considering running in 2008 for President? Do you know of any poll that measures his overall popularity nationally and whether that popularity could translate into his becoming a candidate once again?

Michael Fletcher: Mr. Gore has said repeatedly that he is not interested in running, even though it seems like the timing could be right for him. He is a policy wonk who opposed the war in Iraq, which offers a stark contrast to Bush's CEO-style of leadership, not to mention Bush's increasingly unpopular position on the war. But I haven't seen any Gore polls, even though I'm sure they're out there.

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Windsor Mill, Md.: To what extent can a staff shake-up really turns things around for bush? Is this the sort of situation in which Bush just needs to make it look like he is doing something without really changing the policies of his administration? Or do you think it would be more important for Bush to re-evaluate his policies or his own style of governing and make the change within himself? Can you see him ever doing that?

Michael Fletcher: Interesting question, Windsor Mill. I personally think that the staff shake up is only cosmetic unless Mr. Bush is committed to changing his style of leadership, and that seems doubtful. The president seems most comfortable dealing with a tight circle of trusted advisers. Maybe, however, there will now be better communication with the administration's allies on Capitol Hill, which had become a problem. Truthfully, however, the president's biggest problem--and the issue that defines his presidency--is Iraq. And even many Democrats, while they debate the run-up to the war, feel that the U.S. has no choice but to stay there until the situation is stable. So there seems that there will be no policy change there. If you're not convinced, just look at his response the increasing calls for Rumsfeld's ouster. Bush has strongly rebuffed them and with good reason: to remove Rumsfeld because of how he has conducted the war in Iraq would be almost like rebuking himself.

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Pulitzers: I've heard so much griping about the fashion reporter winning a Pulitzer. What's everyone's problem? Do people not know what the Pulitzer's are? People win for humor (Dave Barry), TV criticism (Tom Shales), Music Criticism (Tim Page), etc. etc. It's amazing to me that so many people think that journalism = political reporting.

Michael Fletcher: I'm with you. Many elements make up a great newspaper.

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Crawford, Tex.: Hi Michael, are you saying this administration will become more transparent, less secretive? What about their spin, will that continue in your opinion?

Michael Fletcher: They'll be spinning and spinning, there's no doubt there. And I doubt that there will be more or less transparency. I just think there will be more interaction with the press.

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Arlington, Va.: Who inside the White House persuaded the President to use his capital for the past two years going around the country trying to sell changes in Social Security and Medicare--things that couldn't even be sold to Republicans in Congress? If that person is not Card or McClellan who are gone, the beat will possibly go on.

Michael Fletcher: Remaking Social Security is something that captured President Bush's interest even as he was plotting his first campaign for president. It has been the focus of a number of conservative thinkers dedicated to shrinking government. Also, the idea of harnessing the power of the stock market (even with the attendant ups and downs) to boost Social Security's coffers is one that has interested thinkers across the political spectrum. Coming off of his 2004 victory, Bush boasted of having political capital and he thought the Social Security issue would be a winner. A commission had looked at it during his first term. So there is no one person who convinced him, even though it is clear that Karl Rove was a leading strategist in the campaign. And Rove is still at the White House, even if he is now limited to political matters and "big picture" policy plans.

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Cannon Falls, Minn.: Did Rove lose his security clearance? Is that why he was reassigned?

Michael Fletcher: As I understand it, Rove still has his security clearance. I think the thing that happened is that Republicans are nervous about the upcoming election and Rove is considered the No. 1 political guru. So that's going to be his focus. Also, there has been a bit of a breakdown in communication between the White House and Capitol Hill on policy matters.

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Wilmington, N.C.: Do you think the "I'm the decider" line was off the cuff? On the one hand, it struck me as fitting the "resolute leader" character in content, but it sounded a little too schoolyard/arrogant in delivery. Have you heard anything about him blowing that line?

Michael Fletcher: No, I haven't. It is the kind of thing Bush says regularly, even if I don't recall him using that exact formulation in the past. He often says that the presidency is "a decision making office." His view is that many people can advise, but that the president is elected to decide.

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Atlanta, Ga.: Bush might be looking for some victories to up public opinion, and esp. to show that Republicans are getting things done in Congress over the next few months. has anyone talked about medical malpractice reform? Frist wants to run for the White House, and obviously health care will be a big issue in his campaign. Also, it reduces the complaint Republicans aren't being proactive on health care, and I think swing voters might be responsive.

Michael Fletcher: I don't know that the idea of malpractice reform, while a critical, hotly contested issue, warms the hearts of many voters out there. It could even be spun by Democrats as another sop to big business--such as HMOs and other health insurers.

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Minneapolis, Minn.: Did McClellan resign or was he forced out? Lots of rumours out there!

Michael Fletcher: You'd have to think he was forced out--or at least saw the writing on the wall.

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Pittsburgh, Pa.: Hi Michael, I read Johnathan Weisman's article on the huge 'emergency spending' appropriation headed for Senate debate next week. To your knowledge, has any administration figure or any member of Congress made a proposal to raise taxes to pay for the war, or is everyone content to put it on the credit card?

Michael Fletcher: I haven't heard any talk about a tax increase, and I don't expect to in an election year. So that leaves the credit card.

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Ellicott City, Md.: I'm reading all these excited headlines, but what does the "White House Shakeup" really matter? The new press secretary still won't answer questions, Bush will still think that Rumsfeld's doing a heckuva job, Cheney will still accuse all dissenters of giving aid to the terrorists, Rove will still have 24-hour access to Bush, and Iran and Iraq will continue to deteriorate. Am I missing something?

Michael Fletcher: Not as far as I can tell. But even with that, there is a chance that they will operate a little differently. But only time will tell.

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Michael Fletcher: Time's up. Thanks for the great questions.

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