Chinese President Makes Visit to U.S.

Hu Jintao Focuses on Trade, U.S.-China Relations

Washington Post staff writer Edward Cody , who is based in Beijing, answered questions about the visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao to the U.S. to discuss trade and relations between the two countries. Hu kicked off his visit in Seattle, Wash. with meetings at sites owned by Microsoft and Boeing and a dinner at the home of Bill Gates . Hu is also in Washington, D.C. to meet with President Bush and discuss U.S.-China relations, an issue that is of great importance to both sides but clouded by differences on trade, human rights and the status of Taiwan.

Read more: White House Puts Face on North Korean Human Rights , ( Post, April 19, 2006 )

Bush, Hu Produce Summit of Symbols , ( Post, April 21, 2006 )

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Schaumburg, Ill.: Since China does not want its currency to be priced by the free market - why doesn't America change its own exchange rate with China? I believe America does decide its own exchange rate.

Edward Cody: I think exchange rates are more complicated than that. Exchange rates are the relationship between not only the U.S. and Chinese currencies but all currencies as they play out in relation to one another, and the Chinese and the U.S. curriencies also do that. It's a question of supply in demands in both countries as well as third party countries, and it's not something you can just set. I guess you could say it takes two and even more to tango in exchange rates.

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Arlington, Va.: How did Gates get the dinner at his place? I'm sure lots of tech companies would have had an interest.

Edward Cody: I think Bill Gates had an advantage in the sense that he is the best known software/Internet magnate in the world, and as President Hu Jintao said every morning when he logs onto his computer in Beijing he uses Microsoft software. In addition to that the Chinese government and government associated businesses had only last week purchased millions of dollars worth of new Microsoft software for tbeir computer systems. So dinner at Bill Gates's house was a natural.

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Princeton, N.J.: Recently the U.S. is fostering its military ties with countries around China, such as Mongolia, Phillipines, India, as well as militarily building up around China on the ground that containment is needed when things go awry in China. China would well believe that these gestures imply great threat and tries to upgrade its armed forces more quickly and forcefully. It sounds like a self-fulfilling prophecy. How to avoid that? Some would say more transparency, but for two nations with deep doubts on each other's motivation, is it really possible?

Edward Cody: I think you have two things at work. One is the situation that has existed in Asia since the end of World War II, which is basically that the United States is the predominant, if not the only real military power in Asia and takes responsibility for guaranteeing security throughout the region. That's one side of the equation. The other side of the equation is that China, which when at the end of World War II the situation became the prevailing situation, was on its back completely exhausted by World War II and its own civil war between the communists and the nationalists, has now half a century later started to grow enormously economically, politically and inevitably, militarily. So this is bound to create pressure for change in the situation that has existed since World War II. Whether that pressure can be handled peacefully is the challenge that's facing not only U.S. and Chinese leaders but other leaders in the region, particularly the Japanese. In other words the change is occuring and will occure, whether it is peaceful is the question. Most people think that it can be peaceful, including the U.S. and the Chinese leadership. But of course that's not guaranteed.

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Iris from Washington, D.C.: Do you think this is a succeful visit for Hu, comparing with what Hu/China originally wanted and what he actually got? In terms of Taiwan, Bush did not make any stern warnings to Taiwan's Chen as in 2003. Bush's comments on Taiwan is standard if not boring. There were no fourth communique as some in the press suggested it was what China dreamed of.

Edward Cody: I think the Chinese government had early on reconciled itself to the fact that they were not going to get a ringing sharp warning from President Bush against the Taiwanese leader, Chen Shui-bian. They had planned, and I assumed they carried through with this plan in private, to seek from Bush and his lieutenants, a recognition of the danger flowing from what Chen Shui-bian might do in the final two years of his term in office. Specifically, his plans to alter the Taiwainese constitution, perhaps in ways that push the island toward formal, dejour independence. So it's true they did not get the clarion call that Wen Iiabao got when he went to Washington three years, but they had not expected that and they did get an opportunity to convey their concerns, which is all thet had really expected. With regard to the Taiwan issue, I think the Chinese regard the trip as a success just because it happened. Their main goal was equal to equal relations between the United States and China, and that they got.

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Seattle, Wash.: It's interesting how badly the White House messed up Hu's visit, when it went so well here in Washington state, where we get one-third of all Chinese purchases of U.S. products and services.

Are they just clueless in the Bush camp, or do Republicans just not get how to do trade without insulting your guests at any step? Or are they really just that incompetent in the GOP?

We're a Blue state here in Washington.

Edward Cody: It's not my role to judge whether the White House did a good job or bad job in hosting Hu Jintao. It is worth noting that there were a couple of slip ups, such as the announcer who said that the anthem about to be played was that of the Republic of China. The Republic of China is the formal name of Taiwan. The country Hu is the leader of is known as the People's Republic of China. In addition to that, a heckler from the Falun Gong spiritual movement made her way into the crowd and shouted at Hu as he was trying to speak. Both of these were embarrassing moments. But I'll leave it to you to decide whether that means that the Republicans and President Bush failed to give Hu the reception he deserved.

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Rockville, Md.: President Hu is commonly viewed as a behind-the-scenes leader with limited exposure to international diplomacy. How do you think this "official" visit to the U.S (the heckling incident not withstanding) will change his attitude of Sino-U.S. relationships?

Edward Cody: I don't think it will change his attitude. On the contrary, I think it will affirm it. His attitude, or more precisely the attitude of the central committee of the Communist party that he heads, is that good, productive relations with the United States are indispensable at this moment in China's development. The Communist Party leaders have made a strategic decision that the challenges they face at home do not give them the time or energy for any trouble with the United States, so they are determined to get along with Washington. Making that apparent and visible to Chinese people, American people and other people around the world was the main goal of Hu's visit. You might say that he traveled all the way to Washington for those televised images on the South Lawn of the White House when he and Bush, side-by-side, reviewed the troops and addressed journalists and others gathered to greet them.

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Bowie, Md.: Are Bush and Hu going to discuss the issue of China not accepting their illegal immigrants that have been caught in U.S. but held here because China refuses to take them back?

Edward Cody: I'm not sure that specific issue would be the subject of the conversations between the two leaders. Maybe something in a more general sense about immigration, asylum, and human rights. But those kinds of issues most likely would be left to the country's specific departments that deal with immigration. I don't think they'd go into detail on something like that.

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Alexandria, Va.: Any talk of China's military build-up during Hu's visit?

Edward Cody: You probably saw that President Bush reiterated what the United States consistently says; that is that it welcomes China's increased prosperity, and the growth and influence and weight that comes with that prosperity, but that the United States would appreciate what it calls greater transparency in the Chinese military modernization program. Diplomatic language aside, what that comes down to is that the United States recognizes that as China grows, so will its military. But China's motives and goals remain a mystery, even to the most well-informed U.S. officials and they would like more dialogue and frank talk on that subject.

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Hong Kong, China: The Bush Administration recently reprimanded Taiwan's president for perceived efforts to change the status quo of the Taiwan Straits. Many believed this was done at the behest of Beijing. Do you see President Bush yielding more to President Hu on Taiwan during Hu's visit? What would China "trade" in exchange for American help on Taiwan?

Edward Cody: The U.S. policy on Taiwan has been pretty consistent. Whether it be the Bush administration or its predecssors, thet repeatedly say they are against any unilateral change in the status quo and they regard the eventual solution to the standoff as something that should be arrived at through negotiations and should be acceptable to people on both sides of the Taiwan straight, that is to say both in Taiwan and on the mainland. That is the policy President reiterated when Hu was in Washington. There is an interesting development in recent months on that domain, which is that the Chinese government maintains its stated goal of reunifying China (that is to say, reincorporating Taiwain into China). While maintaining that policy, it has shifted its emphasis away from that to a goal that is roughly parallel to U.S. policy. That goal has now become, if you listen carefully to what the Chinese government says, to prevent Taiwan from moving along the path toward legal, full independence. It relies (again, this is not said out loud but is standard operating procedure for the Chinese government) on the United States to make sure that the Taiwanese leadership does not do anything that could be construed as a step toward formal independence. Specifically the Chinese government is worried now that the Taiwainese president, Chen Shui-bian in his final two years in office, will try to change the Taiwanese constitution in a way that formalizes Taiwanese independece. This is something they say they cannot tolerate, and is also something the U.S. opposes. So in that way there is a joining of U.S. and Chinese interests on this issue.

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Washington, D.C.: Dear Edward:

Since you are in Beijing and have a better sense about Chinese culture, protocol, and saving face than we have here in the U.S., how do you think Mr. Hu Jintao will have perceived the fact that the announcer during the White House lawn ceremony stated that the "National Anthem of the Republic of China (Taiwan)" would be played and the action by Mrs. Wang of the Falung Gong?

Edward Cody: My guess is that the mistaken designation of the anthem as the Republic of China will be passed off as just a flub that's not worth worrying about. They may be snickering over their coffee after dinner about it as a sign off lack of attention on the part of the people who prepared the visit but I don't think they'll take it seriously. On the issue of the Falun Gong irritated, my guess is that Hu is very irritated and the people around him are also. That wouldn't happen in China, I can guarantee you that. It comes from a source that is very adversarial, that they do not like and they consider it an evil cult and have cracked down on it in China and would be hard put to understand that the U.S., so concerned with security since 9/11, could allow something like that to happen, particularly under the glaze of the television cameras. That said, the overriding goal of good relations with the United States will dictate that China put whatever irritations it feels aside in the interest of preserving and the spirit of cooperation and friendship that the visit was intended to display.

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Arlington, Va.: "It's a question of supply in demands in both countries as well as third party countries, and it's not something you can just set." So how do the Chinese maintain a rate that is so favorable to their economy? Why doesn't the world economic competition force the rates to move up and down like the pound, the euro and the dollar?

Edward Cody: The Chinese government keeps the Chinese currency the, ren min bi, from moving beyond a certain carefully calibrated space. That space is loosened up in recent months so that the dollar has declined, or otherwise put the ren min bi has appreciated. For example the standard rate for a dollar was 8.2 ren min bi last fall. It is now 8 or just slightly below. Most financial analysts predict that that slow slide of the dollar in comparison to the ren min bi will continue over the months ahead.

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Chicago: Hi Mr. Cody and thanks for the session....There doesn't seem to have been much, at least publicly, accomplished between Hu and Bush yesterday other than an acknowledgement of their differences. I noticed that bush interjected the "chapter seven" reference to the U.N. when he was speaking about wanting China to come on board with respect to Iran. Did Hu have any response to this and what is China's position on Iran having nuclear weapons, beyond the public rhetoric. Do they really care if Iran gets a nuke, so long as their oil contracts are honored?

Edward Cody: This is an interesting question. The Chinese position here is a little bit like walking a fine line. They want to cooperate with the United States and the European countries on this important issue. In addition, as an established nuclear power, they do not want the number of nuclear weapons countries to grow. They're interest is stability, just like that of the United States. On the other side of the ledger, China has signed multimillion dollar oil supply contracts with Iran and does not want to take an adversarial position with respect to a potentially major oil supplier. Moreover, China's policy traditionally has been that other countries should not interfere in the decisions of sovereign countries about anything. So they're reluctant to step up with the United States and threaten sanctions or other measures against Iran for its nuclear program. So far they've not decided one way or the other and are trying to play to both aspects of their policy.

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Adelphi, Md.: If the average salary in China is pennies per hour, what kind of market is there for U.S. goods?

Edward Cody: There's a huge market for U.S. goods. As everybody always points out, China has 1.3 billion people. Although the salaries for most people are low, even the small number of people who make larger salaries amounts to a huge pool of consumers. For example, Hu Jintao had dinner with Bill Gates in Seattle, among other things, because China just purchased millions of dollars of Microsoft software. He toured the Boeing factory in Seattle because China had just purchased billions of dollars of new aircraft for its swiftly growing airline industry. And General Motors has done a booming business selling cars in China in recent years. So there's plenty of business to be done in this huge country and countries all over the world, including China.

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Munich, Germany: At the moment, China and the U.S. seem like Siamese twins, joined at the hips. China is a large holder of treasury bills, but it also depends on a healthy consumer climate in the U.S. There seems to a bit of a stalemate at the moment, regarding the leveraging of economic clout.

But the Chinese have the reputation of thinking in the very long term. Is the Bush administration, in their China policy, considering the future, or are current issues such as oil reserves and nuclear proliferation taking precedence?

Edward Cody: My understanding of the Bush administration's policy on China is that there's a lot of debate in Washington over whether the emergence of China as a major power is a good thing or bad thing, whether it's a manageable evolution or a certain danger. But President Bush's own attitude is that China has to be engaged and has to be dealt with both as an economic opportunity and as an inevitability in the family of great nations, so at any one time there can be U.S. irritation, U.S. pressure against China on various issues such as intellectual property rights, the exchange rates of the ren min bi, but that overall the U.S. is trying to form a relationship with China where these issues, inevitable as they may be, can be treated in a way that's not necessarily adversarial.

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Hong Kong, China: Sino-Japanese relations are at a very low ebb. What role does the United States intend to take, if any, in diffusing tensions between the two giants? Or is the United States inclined to tilt toward Japan (and India) as a counterweight to China?

Edward Cody: Another fascinating question. So far the United States has been extremely careful not to take sides in any of the disputes that divide China and Japan, such as the oil exploration conflict in the East China Sea, or the disputed ownership of islands south of Okinawa. At the same time, the United States in engaged in an ever more intimate military relationship with Japan, including a soon to be activated joint anti-missile defense system. Although the United States doesn't say it out loud, Japanese leaders have said that that system looks to defend against Chinese threats. At the same time the United States is cultivating India, U.S. leaders say it has nothing to do with China. But it still represents the cultivation of a large Asian country that is not China. So the problem is there, no one wants to talk about it, but is has the potential to make trouble in the years ahead if China and Japan continue moving down this confrontational road they seem to be following.

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Richmond, Ky.: President Hu is reluctant to put pressure on Chairman Kim Jong Il, a North Korean leader, to return to the long deadlocked six-party talks. Hu expressed his policy principle regarding the issue. Bush might have been disspointed. Do you think the PRC could persuade Kim to return to the talks without making some concessions by the Bush administration, given fact that Hu urged Bush to be flexible about the issue, including U.S. financial sanctions against North Korea? Thanks for your answer in advance.

Edward Cody: The North Korean equation is really complicated. The Chinese say they do have influence there but their influence is limited. Underlying their concern is a fear that pushing too hard could cause internal trouble in North Korea, which for China would be disastrous. Large numbers of North Korean asylum seekers sneak across the border into China every month. This is not a problem China wants to deal with. It would be a big problem if the North Korean government were to collapse. On the other hand the Chinese government would prefer not to have nuclear weapons in the hands of a North Korean leadership that they themselves recognize is less than totally stable. The Bush administration has been pushing hard on China to squeeze North Korea harder on this issue, but Chinese reluctance to do so, has not diminished. It's hard to understand, as we all are, why the fear is so great. But it is a fact that China feels it cannot clamp down on North Korea without bringing along more concessions from the United States on North Korea's demand for recognition, economic aide and eventual use of nuclear power for producing electricity.

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Edward Cody: It is interesting to hear questions displaying such a high level in interest and understanding of the U.S.-China relationship and I'm gratified that everybody was able to jump in and discuss them.

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