Preakness Stakes

John Scheinman Takes Your Questions on the Race

John Scheinman, special to The Washington Post, was online Thursday, May 18, at 3 p.m. ET to field your questions and comments about the Preakness Stakes.

Scheinman has been covering horse racing for The Post since May 2000. He became an avid follower of the sport while ducking out on weekends from American University in the mid-1980s to Laurel Park and Pimlico. Scheinman also is a crafty Triple Crown handicapper. His pick of Invisible Ink in the 2001 Kentucky Derby finished second at odds of 55-1, he liked Birdstone to upset Smarty Jones in the Belmont Stakes in 2004 and last year he cashed a ticket on 50-1 Derby winner Giacomo.

Recent Coverage:

Photos: Pimlico: The Right Track

Post Drama Before the Preakness (Post, May 18)

An Unorthodox Trainer Sticks to the Routine (Post, May 17)

The transcript follows.

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John Scheinman: Good afternoon everyone. I'm coming to you live from the Pimlico press box. Overcast day here and a card full of fairly cheap horses, but I'm ready to take questions on the Preakness Stakes.

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Arlington, Va.: I can't seem to find Beyer figs. for Platinum Couple, Greele's Legacy or Diabolical. Can you help?

John Scheinman: Well, Andy Beyer's figures are published in the Daily Racing Form, but I can help because I have an "advance" for Saturday.

Platinum Couple got an 82 finishing fifth in the Wood Memorial, Greeley's Legacy got a 91 in the Lexington and Diabolical received an 82 for winning a bad allowance race at Delaware Park.

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Stony Point, N.Y.: Who is your longshot in this race, and how would you bet him? Thanks.

John Scheinman: I think Like Now, the speedy horse starting in the No. 1 post position, is an excellent long shot. He's fast, gritty and in excellent hands. I'll have a story about him in tomorrow's paper and you could do worse that "wheeling" him with the rest of the field at odds of 12-1.

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Adams-Morgan, Washington, D.C.: I am going to my first Preakness. I hear parking there is a nightmare. I don't want to get at the track at 6 a.m. to be able to get track parking. I plan on getting there around noon or so. Considering public transportation ( most likely the light rail). Is driving an option since all of the nearby residents turn their yards into parking lots?

Any tips you give ?

John Scheinman: This is a great question. The neighborhood folks are actually, for the most part, great. This is a chance for them to make some money and before I got my press badge I parked on their lawns. Don't pay more than $20 and use your intuition about the folks and don't leave valuables, although you should be fine. Everyone knows the deal with this. I've never gone any other way than driving. Sure, there will be traffic, but, hey, you're not going to the Preakness to get away from crowds, right?

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Washington: I've never been to Pimlico, but the Sunday Source story made it sound kind of run down. Is it really in bad shape?

John Scheinman: Joe Kelly, the dean of local sportswriters at 84 and now the resident historian at Pimlico says the track is like a favorite pair of old shoes in the closet. I like that. This might be my favorite track and if it was on the grounds of Saratoga instead of in a blighted Baltimore neighborhood, the locals would threaten to cut off your head of you so much as painted the place.

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Chantilly, Va.: John: Is there a Magic Weisner in this year's field?

Also, any word on how "Magic" is doing these days? It's a shame we haven't been able to see him run since his bout with West Nile Virus (other than his ill-fated comeback).

John Scheinman: No, there is no Magic Weisner in the field. The local horse, Sweetnorthernsaint, is a live wire and a real threat. He's not going to be 45-1 like "Magic" was. That horse was very good, but trainer Nancy Alberts chose to race him in Maryland leading up to the Preakness rather than go on the road to bigger races like trainer mike Trombetta did with the 'saint. Magic, by the way, is fine, living comfortably with Alberts at the spread she bought with the money he earned.

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Towson, Md.: Doesn't Barbaro's trainer come across as a total jerk for choosing a number that was already chosen by another trainer, and then complaining that the officials "wouldn't give it to me" ?? And then he was allowed to pick another number rather than waiting 'til the end, as the rules require. Not the horse's fault, of course, but it did leave a sour taste in my mouth.

John Scheinman: I might not have conveyed it that well in my story. I don't think he came off as a jerk. He looked more like he was a little dazed and confused. I would give him a break if I was you. I tend to think Matz is a good guy doing the best he can under the pressure. Different people react to sudden fame differently. It is very stressful and not everyone can walk with the same grace John Servis did with Smarty Jones. As for the draw, I think it's tomfoolery and should be eliminated. Don't let the trainers pick. Draw it randomly like in the old days.

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Washington, D.C.: So with Barbaro the heavy favorite to win, if one was to bet on the superfecta with Barbaro in 1st and it ends up hitting, with only 9 horses, is the payout going to be miniscule? Like $200 or something?

John Scheinman: Well, if it came Barbaro-Platinum Couple-Hemingway's Key-Diabolical you'd probably make a tiny fortune. The prices might be surprisingly good if it's anything other than Barbaro first and Brother Derek or Sweetnorthernsaint in second.

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Washington, D.C.: I love horse racing (and Barbaro!) and wish I could go to the Preakness, but unfortunately I probably will not even be able to watch it on TV this year (due to a prior commitment). I thought maybe about going to Belmont if Barbaro does win the Preakness-are tickets going to be impossible to find? Do you know how accessible Belmont is from NYC? I've never been to a race before (always have just watched it on TV).

John Scheinman: I think reserved seats are about gone, but Belmont Park is the size of Rhode Island and there will be plenty of room for you there. Try to find an advance ticket, but I would recommend going no matter what, especially if Barbaro is going for the Triple Crown. The Long Island Railroad runs to the track right out of Penn Station. It will be crowded, but it will be festive.

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Rockville, Md.: Is the chalk good enough to bet at even money or less?

John Scheinman: Depends on how you like to wager. Some handicappers think Barbaro is a steal at even money, but, to me, you have to bet a lot to win a lot. I've always been more of a value hunter. It's your call.

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WASHINGTON, D.C.: What is with all the BASHING of Pimlico? Though, I have never been there, is the track in that bad of shape? Also, I like the fact that there won't be 20 horses, it gives every horse a chance, when their given more room to run.

John Scheinman: I'll address this again: In the modern sports world, everyone wants a sky box. You should see the new Churchill Downs and Gulfstream Park. You are constantly reminded at these places whether you have a lot of money or not. Pimlico is a palace for the $2 bettor, the traditional backbone players of the sport. I'm a man of the people, not the silk suit set so I feel right at home at Pimlico. It's easy to bash the place because it's so old, but I see good things in the old, people, building, whatever . . .

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Arlington, Va.: John, I used to hear a lot about how Pimlico is a speed favoring track and has tight turns and now lately I have heard that these "myths" are not necessarily true. Is there anything significantly different about Pimlico's track that plays into your handicapping? For instance, it seems like Pimlico has a particularly long stretch from the far turn until the finish line. If true, what type of horse would that help or hurt?

John Scheinman: Pimlico has traditionally been a track that favors inside speed. Today, for example, horses are winning from all over the place. I think in the past the track superintendents got a little lazy and let the bias exist for days on end and wise guys cleaned up on this knowledge. I think they are more conscious of keeping it a level playing field these days. When handicapping horses coming from, say, Laurel Park, I keep in mind that that track's mile races are one-turn races, so, sometimes, just very long sprints. Two-turn horses in two-turn races will get rated slightly higher by me because of it.

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Washington, D.C.: I was thinking about betting the wheel with Barbaro, but I'm worried about a low pay off if another heavily favored horse (Brother Derek, Sweetnorthernsait) places second. I guess I'll throw a tri-fecta or two in there to shake things up.

Any tips for someone who thinks Barbaro is a near lock?

John Scheinman: I would recommend wheeling Barbaro for precisely the reason you gave. You're chances are high for losing money. My suggestion would be, if you are sure of him, to single Barbaro in Pick 3s and the Pick 4 (if the Preakness is part of one) and then try to find value in the other races.

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Lanexa, Va.: I liked Sweetnorthernsaint in the Derby, and like him still, in light of the really awful trip he had in the Derby, which I think has not been adequately discussed. However, I am greatly puzzled by a photo in Thoroughbred Times (p.27) which shows Desormeaux STANDING UP in the saddle with sns just behind Barbaro at the quarter pole. Please comment on sns chances, his Derby trip and the photo if you've seen it.

John Scheinman: First, I want to address Desormeaux standing up: The horse took a bad step and Barbaro was moving in front of him and Desormeaux stood up for his and the horses safety. When the "Saint recovered, Kent rode to the wire. Not hard, but not completely folded up. The horse was exhausted. I think the Saint is a very talented horse that fits this race well. Here is what you have to decide: Whether the Derby took everything out of him or was an excellent race to build on. The trainer and jockey are confident. The horse has a wickedly fast turn of foot. He should get clear sailing and might even be laying on Barbaro from his position directly to the Derby winner's right. It's going to be a good race.

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Washington, D.C.: Do you think any horse can really beat Barbaro? Or should we just worry about the Belmont (longer distance, even more tired at that point).l

John Scheinman: The general feeling is this is the race to beat Barbaro if he's going to get beat at all. He appears built for the Belmont. I tend to agree with this. Michael Matz made a lot of racing Barbaro with plenty of rest between starts. Now he only has two weeks to rebound. It's a stretch because he's a magnificent horse, but hope springs eternal and the competition is not without talent.

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Arlington, Va.: Just curious - what's your favorite race and why? Thanks!

John Scheinman: I have a few races I love: The Preakness, certainly, the Haskell Invitational at lovely Monmouth Park on the Jersey shore, I love the Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash. I love the whole Breeders' Cup. The Derby . . . But I also like the fourth at Pimlico on a Thursday (not today's, unfortunately) because racing is just a wonderful puzzle, a cerebral exercise, a connection with the beauty of the animals. So much to like. . .

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Philadelphia, Pa.: Do you think there's something to this new trend, if you can call it that with two examples, of former equestrians being highly successful trainers? It seems to me that possibly they are better horsemen/women because they have ridden themselves, and that they may know more about horses and what they are capable of because they have worked with horses who have been given some time to get to their physical peak (i.e. older than 2 and 3). I think it's a shame that most racehorses never get to grow up before they are shunted off to breed.

John Scheinman: Barclay Tagg, who trained Funny Cide, jumped as a youngster. Rodney Jenkins, a top trainer in Maryland, was a legend on the show circuit. Now Matz. Yeah, there are a lot of them. I just think those people are highly attuned to the horses and are more used to letting horses be horses. Many of them, like Matz, train off of farms, not cooped up in barns getting stale doing nothing all day.

As for allowing horses to reach their physical peak, there are financial demands that rarely allow it. A lot of people in horse racing these days as owners don't have the deep pockets to let the horse develop at its own pace. They want financial results quickly. It's pressure on the horses and on the trainer to perform even when they're not ready. I agree that it's sad. And I also agree it's a shame that the economics of the game almost demand that the great horses retire so early and go to stud. Why in the world don't we have Funny Cide, Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex competing in the Pimilco Special tomorrow? It should be so.

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Washington, D.C.: I am new at betting on horses, what does the term "handicap" mean?

John Scheinman: handicap means two things in racing:

1. a handicap race is one in which the racing secretary assigns weights to each horse theoretically in an attempt to make the field equal. In the modern game, the weights are a joke because whining trainers will pull their horses from races if they think too much weight has been assigned. Even if it's just 118 pounds. In the old days, the top horses lugged 130 pounds regularly! Handicaps are not to be taken seriously for the most part.

2. The other handicapping is simply gauging a horse's chances against the rest of the field using whatever tools are available to make a determination.

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Bokonon: I know nothing about betting horse racing and will be at Preakness.

What type of bet would you recommend outside of the boring win/pace/show ?

John Scheinman: Learn how to bet a Pick 4. In Maryland, this wager has the lowest takeout -- the amount the track takes from your winnings -- of any major bet in the country: just 14 percent. You have to pick the winner of four designated races in a row. You can use more than one horse in each "leg" of the bet. The base cost is $1 and rises exponentially. So, if you use two horses in the first leg, three in the second, three in the third and four in the fourth leg, it will cost you $72. The payoffs are always in the hundreds to high thousands of dollars. It beats the heck out of the lottery.

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Lanexa, Va.: Thanks, John - I thought a bad step must be the explanation but I am amazed that as far as I have seen no one has mentioned it in discussing the race. I gather you think the Saint was already done so it had no effect on his performance, other than perhaps causing the jock not to push him to the finish.

John Scheinman: He was not going to win the Derby. He made this huge move to run from 11th place to third on the backside of the track. He drew abreast of Barbaro, who was on his outside and about to launch a final quarter mile in an unbelievably fast 24 seconds. The Saint needs to settle down and not get out of control.

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Arlington, Va.: What horses are your "throwouts" for the Preakness and which longshots may hit the board for a share?

John Scheinman: Throwouts: Platinum Couple, Hemingway's Key (sorry, Nick Zito), Greeley's Legacy and Diabolical.

Live long shots: Like Now (12-1), Bernardini (8-1).

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Washington, D.C.: A friend told me that in 2002, 2003, and 2004 a $2 win bet ticket from the Derby or Preakness (the physical ticket) on War Emblem, Funny Cide, and Smarty Jones respectively were selling for as much as $200 a piece on ebay as collectors items before the Belmont. Have you heard of this phenomonon?

John Scheinman: they print the names of the horses on the Triple Crown tickets and don't do this in any other races I know. There is a market for these tickets as memorabilia, but I can't vouch for the $200. A good well to sell them, however, is to put them under glass with tickets to the race and stuff like that and make it a memento package. If you've got a Derby ticket on Barbaro, you might want to float it on eBay after the Belmont, but if it's for more than $2, please go cash it!

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John Scheinman: The lines are open here, racing fans.

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Alexandria, Va.: Can a horse with a mere 82 or 84 Beyer ever run fast enough in the "big" races to take one of the top 4 positions? I thought in general that the 50-1 winners and placers still had higher Beyer figures (at least close to 100). Also, how important do you think dosage is in these races? I always see the numbers, but can't tell how important they are.

As a side note, I really like Like Now as well. Why is he set at only 12-1?

John Scheinman: The dosage is based too much on opinion. I'm not sure I want to go into it, but it has been discredited.

As for the Beyer figures, I don't think a horse like Hemingway's Key is going to jump up from a high of 84, freak out and win the Preakness. My impression is that Nick Zito, the trainer, was going to run a bunch of horses in the other races this weekend (great race cards at Pimlico on Friday and Saturday) and he offered to help out the racing office when it looked like no one was going to show up in the Preakness by throwing his horse in.

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Washington, D.C.: Who is your favorite jockey? And why is it so rare to have fillies racing in the Triple Crown? What about women jockeys?

John Scheinman: I like a several riders: Barbaro's jockey Edgar Prado is a consummate professional. I think Kent Desormeaux is excellent and like him particularly in turf races. The wonderful John Velazquez was on the backside this morning and looks to be recovering from his nasty fall. Rosie Napravnik, the 18-year-old apprentice rider in Maryland, is a wonder and a superb rider. The sky is the limit for her. If handled correctly I think she could be bigger than Julie Krone. That kind of talent.

As for fillies in the Triple Crown, it is rare to run females against males, particularly in this country and particularly on dirt. It is more common in European racing, which is almost exclusively conducted on grass, where fillies regularly beat up on the boys. Winning Colors and Genuine Risk won the Kentucky Derby, though, so it is possible.

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Arlington, Va.: Have you heard any rumblings that Magna will eventually move the Preakness to another track (Laurel, GP)?

John Scheinman: The only rumblings are usually out of the mouths of the media looking to stir the kettle. Sometimes management dangles the threat during the slot machine wars in Annapolis. But don't hold your breath.

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Washington, D.C.: I take it you meant you don't like the wheel with Barbaro for the reasons I listed... Pick 3 and Pick 4 eh? I've never been too confident with those bets, but I'll give it a shot.

What about Barbaro and Bernardini, or Barbaro and Like Now with a little more money instead of the wheel?

John Scheinman: If you believe in Bernardini and Like Now, yes, those bets are good. Better still, good gambler, if you like Bernardini and Like Now, why not wheel them and if Barbaro happens to finish off the board you are king of the world!

As for confidence in the Pick 4: If you LOVE Barbaro, you now only have to pick the winners of three races. It's lucrative and worth a stab. Keep the ticket small and take a little shot. You can manage your money and not run wild and still do well.

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Alexandria, Va.: Wow that's awfully nice of him. Very interesting that these types of politics play into it. I'm debating playing every combination for the superfecta with Barbaro at first and excluding Hemingway's Key and Platinum Couple for $120 total. I think the winnings will barely surpass the amount I would have paid. Think this is worth it? It's more because I think it's an interesting theory to see how much one can make on that type of bet.

John Scheinman: I didn't say Platinum Couple and Hemingway's Key couldn't finish fourth!

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Arlington, Va.: What can racing do in terms of marketing to up its popularity?

John Scheinman: Sell the gambling. Racing is a MUCH MUCH MUCH better deal than lottery. Why are they ashamed of selling the betting. Also, teach people how to play. Offer getaways to track and then teach the newcomers how to play. How to read the racing form. GIVE stuff away. They give drinks away in Atlantic CIty, why not the track? Give away programs, admission, etc. I could go on all day. Someone please, give me a racetrack!

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Arlington, Va.: I didn't see the race replay of the Derby but from the detailed results it appeared that Bluegrass Cat simply tucked in and followed Barbaro around the track. Any inkling that Dominguez will try to the do the same with Diabolical since he's starting from the outside post anyway?

John Scheinman: Well, sure, he'll try, but this horse beat nothing in his last race at Delaware Park and this group will overwhelm him.

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Rockville, Md.: Someone asked Beyer the other week what the best thing to look for on those confusing racing charts that can help you pick the winner. Not surprisingly he said the "Beyer Speed Factor".

What would be your advice as the top couple of things to look for?

John Scheinman: I think he said "The Beyer Speed Figure" not "Factor." I think the Beyer figures are great, but everyone has them, so you don't have a great edge using that as your sole guideline.

This is going to sound like homework, but I really recommend reading good handicapping books -- "Exploring Pedigree" by Mike Helm and any of Andy's books. The world of handicapping will open up to you. It is a fascinating pastime and as provocative as a good chess match.

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John Scheinman: no one has asked me who is going to win. . .

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Dupont Washington, D.C.: Agreed, like now and bernardini deserve some respect, but do you like them for the bottom of exotics or up there in 1st or second. Bernardini seems fast to me but I wonder how fast Aquaduct (Withers) is compared to other tracks. Like now looks good for 3rd or 4th, but I can't justify putting him ahead of the 3 faves. Thoughts?

John Scheinman: Bernardini might be a fabulous horse, but is he ready for the Preakness off three starts? I'm making a stand and saying, 'no.' I have asked around a lot about Like Now (my story for tomorrow's paper) and have received widely divergent views, including a "no xxxx chance" from Hall of Fame jockey Gary Stevens. My belief is that he could take them a very long way and at a long price for a few dollars that could be quite a thrill. More than likely he will tired out at the eighth pole and come in, say, fourth, but he is a fast fighter. What more could you ask for in a live long shot?

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Andrew Beyer: So, who's going to win?

John Scheinman: Well, master, you will be my last question: Barbaro will win the 131st running of the Preakness Stakes.

-- Grasshopper

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John Scheinman: Thanks all. Enjoy the race.

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