Horse Racing

Handicapper Examines What Lies Ahead After Barbaro's Injury

Horse racing handicapper Liam Durbin of e-ponies.com was online Thursday, May 25, at 11 a.m. ET to take a look back at this year's Preakness Stakes and to examine Barbaro's injury and its potential impact on the field at the upcoming Belmont Stakes on June 10th.

Recent Coverage:

No Belmont for Bernardini (Post, May 25)

Barbaro's Chances Are 50-50 (Post, May 23)

Doctor Says Barbaro Keeps Improving (AP, May 23)

Video: Barbaro Said to be Doing Better

The transcript follows.

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Liam Durbin: Thanks again to Washingtonpost.com for having me. I really enjoy these opportunities. Let's get going!

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Southern Maryland: Many Old West movies used the cliche of shooting lame horses. Watching those movies, I had assumed that horses' broken legs never heal properly without the care Barbaro has received, and that a horse without such care was in constant pain. Thus, I assumed that the shooting was an act of euthanasia. Is that the case? Obviously, you can't tell a horse to stay off a broken leg for a while until it heals, like you can a human patient.

Liam Durbin: That is exactly right. However, we are sadly not that far removed from the old west. A serious leg injury to a horse is still considered terminal in most cases. I have to admit that I know more about it now than I did a week ago. The condition that develops from a horse putting uneven weight on his three good legs is extremely painful and the only humane thing to do is to put them down. We all wish it were not so. The work done on Barbaro is very encouraging, but his progress has also exceeded the doctors' expectations. I believe the consensus is that most horses would not have made it even this far.

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Rockville, Md.: Albertrani, trainer of the winning horse in the Preakness, is currently serving a suspension for doping a horse in another race. Doesn't this cloud his victory in the Preakness? Even if the winning horse tested cleanly, Trainers who cheat generally don't stop after a mild suspension. With the tragic injury to the favorite, and the winning trainer evidently a shady character, it would seem the sport has taken several steps backwards, no?

Liam Durbin: I completely agree. I believe the penalties are too mild. I don't know much about what he did to earn the suspension, but I'm taking it at face value that the evidence was conclusive and he fairly earned the penalty. Given that, there could be no worse time in horse racing for this to come to light than after Barbaro's injury. The health of the animals must be held more sacred than wins and losses and purse money and stud fees. I believe there should be much more severe penalties for trainers caught cheating in any form. It dirties the name of the sport.

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Hawesville, Ky.: With Bernardini sitting out the Belmont, who's the favorite? Sunriver? Bluegrass Cat? Bob and John?

Liam Durbin: It is a toss-up. I have to admit it is the only bright spot for the Belmont at this point. The race being wide open will draw some attention. And it will probably draw more participants into the field. So it could be a decent betting race.

I am anxious to see which horse my computer puts on top. Should be a very even field. It will probably boil down to pace.

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Fairfax County, Va.: I realize you are not a vet, but you are an industry insider. And The Post has not updated us on Barbaro for two days. What's the word within racing? How is Barbaro, and when will we know he is going to survive (if that happens)? What is the most dangerous period ahead?

washingtonpost.com: No Belmont for Bernardini (Post, May 25)

Liam Durbin: I have been checking as many sources as I could find. There are several sites that are keeping tabs on Barbaro, and I have some friends in the media that have stayed on several days now to keep an eye on Barbaro.

The latest word is still cautious optimism. He is responding better than anyone expected, but over the next few days and weeks it is important to see him distribute his weight evenly, even on the injured leg. All the hardware they put in there is intended to make this possible.

I believe the most critical time is right now. He will be developing habits for how he deals with the injured leg. And I believe the risk of infection is still high right now.

But please keep an eye on the newspapers. They will have real doctors' opinions.

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Gaithersburg, Md.: Everyone wishes for a quick recovery for Barbaro. I am glap to see that Barbaro's owners are thinking more of him being able to lead a pain-free life rather than looking at the dollar signs if he was able to recover enough to stud. The jockey was very upset when the injury occured. How is he doing? Is he with Barboro?

Liam Durbin: Edgar Prado was very upset. In his own words he has cried a lot over the past few days. As I left the track on Saturday I saw many people crying. It was really tough for everyone. Edgar is racing at Belmont Park. He wants to stay busy.

I also agree that it is a great dispaly of compassion that the owners are concerned for Barbaro's quality of life and not just his potential as a stud.

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Sykesville, Md.: One other thing I bet the vets are considering is modifying how he is trimmed, overall.

I have a horse who foundered two years ago, but is completely sound now--no founder rings even! I trim him myself, I square off the toes, take nothing off of the sole of the foot, rasp upwards at the square part to give it a "rocker" appearance. He breaks over faster, has more pressure on his soles and frog (the frog is the pump). All my horses have great big frogs and nice big feet.

Shoes are not always the answer as they limit the dynamic system of the hoof.

And I, like many, am keeping my fingers crossed that he recovers.

Does the Jockey Club permit semen collection, or is it all live cover (there was a time when that was the ONLY thing they would accept)?

Liam Durbin: It is still all live cover. At one point I didn't understand the logic in that, but it kind of makes sense. If artificial insemination were allowed, it would really narrow the gene pool dramatically because only a handful of horses would be allowed to stud. Those few would become the stock for thousands of foals instead of many studs each covering a handful. So it gets more genes into the gene pool. I think that is a good thing.

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Washington, D.C.: Where does the industry go from here? Barbaro, with speed and stamina, was a glaring exception during a time when so many horses are being bred strictly for speed. Will some breeders endeavor to re-create the speed and stamina combo that Barbaro apparently had?

Liam Durbin: I think they already are. Barbaro was well bred for speed and stamina, but he is not the only horse with such breeding. I honestly believe the "bred for speed" syndrome is a little over-hyped. You can still see a clear distinction between horses bred to be sprinters and those bred for classic distances. The times are different and the running styles are different. I believe what made Barbaro special is that he got a healthy shot of both. Just like some kids grow up big and fast and other ones grow up just big or just fast or neither. The parents could be the same in any case. Barbaro's breeding was no accident.

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Washington, D.C.: Maybe this is the wrong question to ask for a variety of reasons, but given Bernardini's impressive performance at Pimlico, would Barbaro even have had a chance if he hadn't broke down? Throw in the early break from the gate, and it's hardly assured Barbaro would have won.

Liam Durbin: I don't think that is an inappropriate question. I have mulled it over in my mind as well. I believe Barbaro could definitely have won at the pace Bernardini won the race. The fractions over six furlongs were faster than in the Derby but the fractions for the first half mile were slower, so the pace would have been pretty comparable to the Derby.

Considering the fact that Barbaro won the Derby going away without ever seeing the whip, yeah, I think he could have won.

Would he have won is another question. The best horse does not win every horse race. Racing luck plays a big part, getting the right trip. I believe he was the best horse in the race and could have won.

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Arlington, Va.: I know this seems to be a little out of the left field, but my conspiracy bells are ringing on the Preakness. Barbaro happened to be the only one whose gate wasn't locked, started early, he didn't appear to have an injury at that time, then as soon as the race starts, he has three fractures to his leg? Seems just a bit fishy to me, especially with so much riding on the favorite to win. So my question is: are horse races ever "thrown" or manipulated or has there ever been a race in which it was conclusively determined that something was done to the horse? (I'm thinking back more to the early 20th century on this).

Liam Durbin: Conspiracy theories are fun, but they are a waste of time. Think about it, even if leaving the gate open were intentional the chances of him injuring himself if he happened to press against it and false start are truly minimal. I've seen dozens of false starts like that and it is rare that the horse is scratched. If the horse flips in the gate or is extremely fractious in the gate he is far more likely to hurt himself than passing through it.

It is a common misconception that the track makes more money hen the favorite loses. They make the same amount of money no matter who wins. It is a simple fact. They take their cut off the top and then the remainder is divided up amongst the people holding winning tickets. So there is never anything in it for the track to want a favorite to lose or win.

Horse races can be thrown. It usually involves a jockey or trainer intentionally holding a horse back or equipping him to lose. I do not believe it happens often and I do not believe it was at play in the Preakness.

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Germantown, Md.: In reference to the traniners suspension, wouldn't such an incident be an embarrassment to Sheik Mohammed? He seems like too proud of a man to have this type of incident occur in his stables.

Liam Durbin: I don't know the man personally. I'd be embarassed. I'd get a new trainer.

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Lexington, Tenn.: I have a lot of trouble handicapping horses on polytrack. Some traditional speed and pace methods do not work as well for me. How have you done thus far?

Liam Durbin: My computer program does just about the same on polytrack as it does on conventional surfaces. Don't be so quick to discredit your success on the surface. If you had a bad meet at Turfway, don't blame it on the surface. Maybe you just had a bad meet. There are so many factors at play in a horse race that the surface is just one of them. Give it another 100 races to observe. Don't bother betting them. Just analyze the pace scenario and see if it plays out like you thought it would. In my observation it has been a fair surface.

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Washington, D.C.: Would you please post the websites that are tracking Barbaro's progress? I've been monitoring ESPN, but am concerned that coverage will fall off during his recovery. Thank you!

Liam Durbin: USA Today has done a nice job so far.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/horses/front.htm

Chicago Tribune is also doing a nice job.

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/horseracing/

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washingtonpost.com: You can also find updates at vet.upenn.edu

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20003: What's the nearest track (to DC) that has live racing on Fathers' Day, June 17? Looks like neither Laurel or Pimlico are options. I owe it to my father, who just passed away, an inveterate racetrack junkie, to take his grandkids out to see the ponies . . .

Liam Durbin: Colonial Downs is open during this time I believe. They are just a few miles east of Richmond.

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San Francisco, Calif.: Isn't there at least one precedent? Your Host, the beaten favorite in the 1950 Kentucky Derby, was badly injured as a four-year-old in a California race. The insurance company, Lloyds of London, paid off his owners and then financed Your Host's recovery. They were well rewarded, as he sired Kelso.

Liam Durbin: Your knowledge of racing is impressive. I had not researched this but I will. In the mean time, I take you on your word. Thanks!

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Lutherville, Md.: Liam,

Without Barbaro or Bernardini going to the Belmont, it looks like Todd Pletcher has a great chance to finally win a Triple Crown race. Of his two shooters - Bluegrass Cat and Sunriver - which one do you feel has the best chance of wearing the carnations come Saturday evening?

Liam Durbin: Bluegrass Cat cost me a lot of money a couple of Saturday's ago. So I'm still upset with him. :D

Seriously though, I believe he got a very opportunistic ride that day and also turned in the ride of his life. I'm not sure if he can repeat, although I think the distance will be just fine for him. I'd take Sunriver.

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Fort Washington, Md.: Please explain to us why horses are raced less? Is it better long term to limit the horse's chance to be injuried in a race and make the real money in stud fees? Are the horses actually less sound than forty years ago? I can't remember the gelding's name Henry something that had a long and prosperous career. Somebody is still cursing for gelding that horse!

Do racing quarter horses, trotters, and pacers have the same problem (stamina or staying power)that seems to appear in thoroughbred racing horses? Aren't most steeple chase horses Thoroughbreds?

Liam Durbin: I believe there is some truth to the theory that horses are not as durable today as they were many years ago. But to be perfectly honest the stud business has just gone beserk. So even if the horses today are exactly as hardy as they were three decades ago, the stakes are much higher now to continue to race a champion. Once the horse has made his mark, he has enormous value as a stud. That part of the equation makes it really difficult to continue to race the horse after a brilliant three year old season.

This is another disappointing thing about Barbaro's injury. His connections were horse lovers with deep pockets. I honestly believe that he would have had a career as a four year old. Beyond that would be a stretch, but many of us were talking about seeing Barbaro run in the Breeders' Cup Classic in the fall, and possibly beyond that.

I do not believe the stress on a horse as a trotter or pacer is nearly as significant as it is on a thoroughbred. No jockey, for one thing, and a slower pace. Don't know about steeplechase.

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Arlington, Va.: Liam -- what went through your mind when you realized Barbaro's injury?

Liam Durbin: I can't compare it to anything I have ever felt. I had forced myself to accept that he may not win the race before the race went off. That is just because I have been let down before. But no one was emotionally prepared for what happened.

As he started, I could tell something was not right. As he slid back in the pack I started to accept that it was not his day or that he was really going to have to come from behind. So in that regard my mind was working fast to accept that the Triple Crown was forfeit for another year.

But when we could see he was lame it just was hard to put that anywhere. I had no place prepared for that information. It was tough.

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Plano, Tex.: How do you check track bias from season to season? And compare a couple of tracks currently racing in the East.

Liam Durbin: I believe track bias is more a function of the way the course is laid out than the surface. I think there will be many who disagree with me, but that is my opinion. The tightness of the turns and the location of the chute (if one is installed) and the length of the stretch all factor more heavily than the surface. So in that regard, I do not believe the biases change much year over year. Churchill has that long stretch which allows horses to come from behind and run down the tired front runners. The track at Pimlico is known for tighter turns where the front runner can squirt away off the turn and not get caught. The tighter the turn, the more devastating a wide trip can be. Causes traffic troubles. Belmont is a big track - wide turns.

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Vancouver, Wash.: Liam -

In any major stakes race - there are numerous horses with (essentially) impeccable breeding. Some finish up front, some finish in the back. I've always wondered wether great breeding trumps great training or visa-versa. Which is the determining factor ultimately.

Thanks

Liam Durbin: That is a great question. I am taking the middle road. I believe it is a combination of both. Well bred horses can run poorly, and less royally bred horses can run well. The trainer's job is to get the horse ready to run to his or her potential on the day of the race. The trainer also conditions the horse to understand the essense of competition, so that in addition to being physically fit for the race, they have their head in the game and are willing to compete.

By Derby time, I am usually very disinterested in breeding. Either a horse has proven his or her breeding by that point or they haven't. But if they have not run to their breeding potential by this time, the Derby is a terrible time for a handicapper to suddenly expect them to. It likely won't happen.

So of the two, I'd say it is training. But both are important.

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Cathedral City, Calif.: Of the 12 horses scheduled for the race, how many do you consider as true closers? Could you name two horses might try to go wire to wire.

Liam Durbin: I have not seen any mention of a 12 horse field. NYRA's web site is talking about six for now with more likely to be named later. Of the horses that I have seen named so far, none of them look like wire to wire types. Strangely enough, the Belmont is actually a lot easier to win on the front end than the Derby is, historically. The pace for the first half mile is usually a lot softer in the Belmont. This sets up the race for a stalker or close-up runner. The two big closers from the Derby are back in it, Steppenwolfer and Jazil. Of those two, I favor Steppenwolfer.

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Richmond, Va.: Thanks for taking my question. I want to bet on the Belmont but have limited funds. Who should I definitely include in my Trifecta and who should I definitely throw out?

Liam Durbin: I would love to answer, but I don't know the full field yet. I expect it to be a very even, competitive race. Look for a horse that can stalk the pace as opposed to a deep closer. If there is one sole speed horse with good breeding, get some money on him too. The Belmont can be stolen on the front end. Especially if it is a short field.

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Liam Durbin: I have time for one or two more. Let 'em fly if you have one.

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Liam Durbin: Thanks again to washingtonpost.com. I will see you next time. In the mean time, please visit me at http://www.e-ponies.com. Please visit the forum where there are lots of great handicappers and opinions.

Liam

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