Post Politics Hour
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion

Chris Cillizza
washingtonpost.com Political Columnist/Blogger
Tuesday, May 30, 2006 11:00 AM

Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

washingtonpost.com Political Columnist/Blogger Chris Cillizza was online Tuesday, May 30, at 11 a.m. ET .

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The transcript follows.

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Chris Cillizza: Good morning. I'm doing this chat on location from Chicago after United Airlines saw fit to cancel my flight back to D.C. last night.

Even though I'm outside the Beltway, politics is still in the air. Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) and his Republican opponent -- state Treasurer Judy Barr Topinka -- battled it out in their first debate and the Chicago Tribune ran a front page Sunday story on the chances of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama running for president in 2008.

Those stories and more in today's chat....

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New York, N.Y.: Hi Chris-

How's the Clinton's marriage today?

Chris Cillizza: My (daily) chat with Sen. Clinton is usually later in the day. While the normal topic is her presidential bid in 2008, I guess I can slip a marriage question in there.

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Ithaca, N.Y.: I am a liberal who lives in one of the most liberal cities in liberal New York. I cannot find one of my friends and acquaintances who want Senator Clinton as president. She is a lousy speaker, comes across as as cold and seems like a chameleon. Plus, we are sick of the Bush-Clinton reign as well as her personal stuff. The blond hair doesn't help. It is too easy to compare her to Eva Peron, another talented woman who earned success by putting up with a difficult man. Don't you think a Clinton campaign would always be about them, not the crises are country faces?

Chris Cillizza: In case ANYONE was wondering, the above response was a joke.

Now, onto more pressing questions about Senator Clinton: The Peron parallel.

But seriously folks....I do think there is a significant segment of the Democratic base who is uneasy with the prospect of Clinton as the party's nominee in 2008.

Some believe Clinton has not stood up firmly enough against the war in Iraq while others simply don't believe she can win a general election -- especially if Arizona Sen. John McCain is the Republican nominee.

But, for the moment she is the CLEAR frontrunner if she decides to run -- assuming former vice president Al Gore is to be believed that he is not interested in running for office again.

As I have written many times on The Fix, Clinton will be the best funded, best known candidate and likely the only woman in the field.

Will the primary and, perhaps, the general election, turn into a referendum on the Senator and her husband? Maybe. And of course she will be relentlessly asked questions about her private life and that of her husband (witness the front page New York Times story last week on the state of their marriage.)

How Senator Clinton handles the responses (and how much she chooses to reveal) will be a key element of any national campaign.

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Minneapolis, Minn.: Does Gore kill a Feingold candidacy?

Chris Cillizza: Gore and Feingold fill a particular niche within the Democratic presidential primary.

Both initially opposed the war in Iraq and have spoken out forcefully against the NSA wiretapping program.

But, Gore is known to almost every Democratic primary voter and could easily raise the $50 million or more a candidate will need to compete seriously against Clinton in the early caucuses and primaries.

Feingold has never raised even close to that amount of money and with Gore in the race, the liberals who might be inclined to provide financial backing for the Wisconsin Senator would instead give to the former Vice President.

I don't think Feingold needs to worry, however. Gore seems unprepared and unwilling to run a national campaign in 2008.

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Shanghai, China (expat from Washington, D.C.): I enjoyed you bit on The Fix the other day about Senator Obama's new hirings and '08 potential. The more I read about Obama, and the more I listen to his weekly podcast, the more he seems like the perfect young, inspirational, and charismatic leader that this country needs. He also appears to be a true liberal that would manage to have nationwide appeal, and a high level of electability. Further, the fact that he is black alone could put much of the South back in play. He seems to have the organization, money, and staff that any potential candidate needs at this point. At he is well-known and adored by many in the party. Other than the obvious question of experience, what are the major political obstacles to an Obama presidential campaign at this moment? And how bad would it be for him to be tagged as too young?

Chris Cillizza: I hear The Fix is HUGE in China.

Great question. Ever since his speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, Obama has been at the center of speculation about his political future.

He had and will continue to receive encouragement from some elements within his own party to run in 2008 but I believe he is disinclined to do so.

With Sen. Clinton in the race, any other candidate is necessarily an underdog for the nomination -- although Obama would only be a slight one.

And, Obama is still learning his way around the Senate (he has served for less than two years) and still has plenty of time to hone his political skills for a bid in 2012 or 2016.

Looking for evidence that Obama is not secretly plotting a race? He has raised better than $1.5 million into Hopefund -- his leadership PAC -- but considerably less into his own Senate campaign account. None of the dollars raised into Hopefund can be transferred to a presidential account; every cent in a Senate committee can be.

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Vienna, Va.: What is your declaration of Hillary Clinton as front runner based on?

Chris Cillizza: Sen. Clinton is sitting on $20 million that can be directly transferred to a presidential bid, is ahead in every state and national poll testing 2008 candidates and is the only woman running for the Democratic nomination.

Any other questions?

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Germantown, Md.: What do you think will happen if Hilary Clinton shocks everybody and decides NOT to run?

Who would actually be hurt more by this? The Dems because there is no clear front runner? Or the Republicans who will spend the next 2 years slamming somebody who isn't running?

Chris Cillizza: Great question. While most people in politics (and the press) are assuming that Sen. Clinton is absolutely in the race, there are some who continue to believe that she may decide in the end not to run.

Obviously, a race without Clinton in it would throw the Democratic field into chaos and might lead to a candidacies by a few politicians who are currently content to sit on the sidelines.

A no-go by Clinton could also hamper McCain's efforts to secure the Republican nomination as one of the major arguments in his favor is that he is best equipped to keep Clinton from the presidency in the general election.

I don't think Sen. Clinton has definitely made up her mind about 2008 and she's not likely to do so until after winning a second Senate term this fall.

Much depends on what she decides.

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Louisville, Ky.: You guys inside the Beltway insist on calling Hillary Clinton the Dem frontrunner, if only because you all know her name and she has a lot of money. Great.

However, you seem to discount that no regular-Joe Americans, Democrat or Republican, want her as president. I haven't met a single one, and no one I know knows anyone who wants Hillary Clinton as president.

What will it take for the inside-the-Beltway elite to get over itself and admit it is completely wrong about Hillary Clinton?

Chris Cillizza: Until someone refutes the argument I laid out above (by far the most money, ahead in EVERY poll by a wide margin, and the only woman in the field) I think Clinton deserves to be considered the frontrunner.

Money and name identification are absolutely critical in politics -- that is not an "inside the Beltway" idea but rather the simple reality of competing in the current political world.

Of course Clinton can be unseated -- should she decide to run. But, at the moment, any objective analysis places her at the front of the Democratic field.

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Warrenton, Va.: Re Clinton as Eva Peron: Sen. Clinton as Evita! Actually, there is an analogy here. As you know, Madonna played Eva Peron in the film version of Evita. I think that most people are as sick of Hillary Clinton in politics as they are sick of Madonna in music. Both are long past their prime. In Hillary Clinton's case, her continued overexposure as the Democrat front-runner for 2008 is not going to help her. Do you agree?

Thank you.

Chris Cillizza: I am clearly not equipped to offer analysis on any entertainment-politics comparisons. My favorite musician is Bob Dylan. He is too old to even make it on most oldies stations.

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Hartford, Conn.: Is the Dodd presidential candidacy for real? Or is more of an ego-assuaging move? ("Oh well, at least I tried...')

Chris Cillizza: I hesitate to speak ill of another Connecticut native....but I think Dodd has an uphill race in front of him.

Dodd has considered running for president before and clearly decided that he owed it to himself and his supporters to really make a go of it this time around.

His ideology positions him as a liberal in the field but Dodd did vote for the use of force resolution against Iraq, a vote that could disqualify him in the eyes of many progressives within the party.

Dodd, too, has never shown he can raise the tens of millions he will need to run a viable national campaign.

Of course, conventional wisdom is often proven wrong. For evidence seen "Dean, Howard" in the 2004 presidential race.

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Washington, D.C.: I can't understand why the MSM does this early 2008 prediction stuff. The future of our country falls in this years elections, who controls the agenda, etc. I know it's fun to speculate, but even the frontrunners in '08 are focusing on '06. If it's so far off, why spend time doing it?

Chris Cillizza: What a perfect segue....

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Washington, D.C.: Is the Senate race in NJ really as close as the polls are currently showing?

Chris Cillizza: I think the race between Sen. Menendez and state Sen. Tom Kean Jr. is a nip and tuck affair at the moment.

Menendez was elevated from the House after Jon Corzine was elected governor and vacated his Senate seat so the former Congressman has never run a statewide campaign before and is not nearly as well known as a typical Senate incumbent.

Kean on the other hand is considerably better known than an average state legislator because of his famous last name (his father served as governor of the Garden State).

This race depends almost entirely on whether or not any of the ethics questions that Republicans insist surround Menendez come to light and stick to him before November. So far, we've seen little evidence that that will happen and Menendez continues to rake in campaign cash for the stretch run.

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Germantown, Md.: When handicapping whether or not the Dems can retake the House, have you factored in the Texas Redistricting case awaiting a decision at the Supreme Court? E.g. is there any reasonable chance the the court could rule in a way that would put the five districts in Texas back in play?

Chris Cillizza: This is an important point.

If the Supreme Court does throw out the current Texas map, it could have a major impact on the landscape in 2006. Republican gains in Texas ensured they picked up seats nationwide in 2004 and if the incumbents are forced to run under lines decidedly less friendly for Republicans, we could see a reversal of those gains.

But, it is extremely difficult to predict what the Court will do so I tend to leave it out of my calculations about potential gains and losses in the House. If and when the map gets overturned, we'll start trying to understand exactly what its impact will be in November. For now, however, there are too many "ifs" to make a reasoned judgment.

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Arlington, Va.: Hi Chris. This morning your colleague Marc Fisher wrote about Harris Miller that he is from "the suicidal wing of the Democratic Party." Fisher also wrote, "Miller is a Republican strategist's dream opponent. He's as charismatic as a toaster, wonkier than Al Gore and as proudly liberal as Al Franken. And at just about the worst time ever to be one, he's a lobbyist."

In contrast, Fisher strongly implied that Jim Webb is among those who can "lure back those folks who grew up admiring FDR and JFK but migrated to Reagan." What do you think of Fisher's argument, and what do you think of the Virginia Senate race at this point?

Thanks!

Chris Cillizza: As of today, there are just two weeks left before Virginia Democrats choose between Miller, a former technology lobbyist, and Webb, the Secretary of the Navy during the Reagan Administration.

National Democrats believe that if Webb wins, this seat could be in play and could offer them a double whammy: pick up another seat and stymie Sen. George Allen's presidential hopes in 2008.

Webb is the more intriguing general election candidate but Miller has considerably more solid Democratic credentials.

The last fourteen days of this race will be fascinating. If you haven't already, make sure to bookmark Michael Shear's "Richmond Report" blog on washingtonpost.com for the latest on the contest.

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Boston, Mass.: When the GOP makes the argument that the corruption in government is divided equally between the parties, why don't reporters point out that 95% of the politicians and associates who have plead guilty or been indicted in the past two years are Republicans?

Chris Cillizza: I think reporters do point this out. The Post has written extensively about ethics problems surrounding members like Reps. Bob Ney and Tom DeLay as well as Sen Conrad Burns -- among other Republicans.

And, yes, we have also written about Democratic Reps. Alan Mollohan and Bill Jefferson who face ethical problems of their own.

Like any good newspaper, the Post covers the news -- regardless of whether it involves Republicans or Democrats.

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Sherman, Tex.: Well, since your brought it up ... what do you think are the chances that Sen. Lieberman will run as an independent should he lose the Democratic nomination in the race for his seat?

Chris Cillizza: Pretty slim.

I think Lieberman was doing what any good politician would do when asked about running as an Independent: keeping his options open.

I talked to several folks close to Lieberman in the immediate aftermath of those comments, and none of them said there was much of a chance of him abandoning the Democratic party if he lost the Aug. 8 primary to Ned Lamont.

A brief word on that primary: As I have written on The Fix, Lamont's showing at the state Democratic convention opened a lot of eyes about this race. I still think Lamont is the underdog but this could be much closer than polls currently show it.

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Washington, D.C.: Can we PLEASE talk about someone/something OTHER than Hillary Clinton? I'm tired of her already, and its only Spring '06!!

Chris Cillizza: I'm trying, I'm trying....

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Re: Frontrunner Status: Chris-

Serious question, not being flip. But can you explain the ways in which one's money raised affects their ability to contend? I understand those who can raise no money can't really compete. But HRC's money raised is far and ahead but these other contenders can raise decent money too. So can you explain a little of why the amount of money you have for your campaign puts you ahead of the rest?

Chris Cillizza: ARGHHHHH....I just couldn't resist.

Let's assume that after Sen. Clinton cruises to re-election this fall, she has $15 million in her Senate account. And, on Jan. 1, 2007 she announces for president and transfers all of that cash into a presidential account.

And let's also assume that Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh takes the $10 million (or more) he has in Senate account and does the same.

And that Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry does the same with the money leftover from his presidential race.

means that at least three Democrats will have $10 million or more sitting in the bak at the start of 2007 -- a total that raises the bar almost impossbily high for any other candidate hoping to be competitive.

Unless you can raise $10 million or more in the first three months of 2007, you could well find yourself unable to even make the gate in the Iowa caucuses.

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Radford, Va.: I know Mark Warner has been contemplating a run in '08. Is there any way he can get enough publicity out to the rest of the country about all the good things he's done here in Virginia and how he was liked by both sides? It would seem that would be crucial for him to have any success

Chris Cillizza: Mark Warner is raising scads of money through his leadership PAC (Forward Together) to do just that. Although Warner can't transfer that cash to a presidential account, he can use it to make donations to aspiring Democrats as well as finance his travel around the country to talk about his accomplishments in Virginia.

Warner remains the buzz candidate among the chattering class and is the odds-on bet at the moment to emerge as the anti-Hillary.

A pretty amazing run for a man who was losing a Senate race to Virginia Sen. John Warner just a decade ago.

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Burke, Va.: Do you see any VA reps in congress up for a tough election battle come Nov? Or are they all solidly ahead?

Chris Cillizza: The best race in the state is in the 2nd district where Rep. Thelma Drake (R) faces Phil Kellam (D). Drake won her first election in 2004 under somewhat strange circumstances and Kellam is a known commodity in the district. It's still on the outer edge of potential Democratic pickups but one to watch (Dan Balz and Michael Shear wrote a great piece on that race recently. I hope we can link to it.)

Democrats are excited about their candidate against Rep. Frank Wolf (R) in the 10th district but that is a major long shot.

No other major races but keep an eye on Rep. Tom Davis'(R) fundraising. He is readying for a Senate bid in 2008 assuming John Warner decides not to seek another term.

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Chris Cillizza: Sorry to cut the chat (slightly) short) but I am once again headed to O'Hare to try and catch a plane back to DC.

Thanks as always for all the great questions and make sure to read (and bookmark) The Fix.

Thanks,

Chris

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washingtonpost.com: Growing Number of GOP Seats In Doubt , ( Post, May 20, 2006 )

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