Political repercussions on the electricity rate increase in Maryland. In D.C., Williams goes after Fenty in the mayoral race and in Virginia, the legislature ducks the transportation funding issue.

WTOP political commentator Mark Plotkin was online Thursday, June 22, at Noon ET to discuss local politics and whatever else is on your mind.

Plotkin joined WTOP after 10 years as a political analyst for WAMU radio. He has been active in D.C. and national politics since attending George Washington University in the late '60s.

A transcript follows.

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Mark Plotkin: Obviously there is a major news story today. At 2:00, Doug Duncan is dropping out of the Maryland governor's race. We have heard that it is for health reasons. That leaves open two divisive Democratic primary races for attorney general and comptroller. But obviously, it puts Martin O'Malley in a better position because he now can start campaigning for governor without any opposition in his own party. Every politician likes to be in that situation.

Would welcome your comments on whether this makes O'Malley stronger and also, the two races that are going to get a lot of attention now: AG and Comptroller.

Finally, Bob Ehrlich, when is he going to pick his Lieutenanat Governor? His TV ads have already started in the Baltimore area.

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Maryland: Why do you think Duncan is dropping out of the governor's race?

Mark Plotkin: The reason stated, I've heard, is health reasons. I don't know what kind of health reasons but I'm sure Doug Duncan will elaborate at the 2:00 press conference.

His campaign seemed to be gaining some momentum. He had closed the gap from 20 points to nine points and the O'Malley forces definitely didn't take him for granted. As I said repeatedly, his greatest disadvantage was that he came from Montgomery County and the rest of Maryland, with the exception of Prince George's County, the rest of the stage considers that an extension of Washington, D.C.

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College Park, Md.: So, Doug Duncan is dropping out of the governor's race today. Why couldn't his campaign draw much traction?

Mark Plotkin: I just think that O'Malley was viewed as a more exciting candidate by virtue of personality, youth and "rock star" fame. Duncan had to demonstrate that he could draw votes in different parts of the state other than his home county.

I think there might have been a surprise in terms of newspaper endorsements from the Post and even the Baltimore Sun and that might've given the Duncan campaign a late lift but we'll never know. I remember years back that Harry Hughes was considered "a lost ball in the high weeds" and he got the endorsement of both those papers and it was crucial in creating momentum in the last week of the campaign which he ultimately won.

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Huntsville, Ala.: Where are all the angry Duncan posters on the Maryland Moment politics blog going to go now? It would seem hard for them to support Mayor O'Malley.

Mark Plotkin: I didn't realize there was such interest in the Maryland gubernatorial reace in Huntsville, Ala., but I'm glad to answer your question.

I think that the Duncan supporters with the benefit of time will come over to O'Malley. There's plenty of time before the November election and Democrats in Maryland think that the governorship belongs to them and that the candidacy of Kathleen Kennedy Townsend was an aberration. You know, from 1970 until 2002 the Democrats held the governor's chair and they want to continue that dominance for the future.

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Silver Spring, Md.: Wow -- Duncan dropping out! but for us dems that is good news, isn't it? No beating each other up in the primaries situation. Now, if we could get Schaeffer to realize it's time for him to go, that would also be great! What is the latest head to head poll of O'Malley vs Erhlich?

Mark Plotkin: Yeah, I think a lot of attention is now gonna go to the comptroller race first and then the AG race. In answer to your last question, I don't think the polls mean anything at this early date and I wouldn't comment on them because now with Duncan dropping out the poll numbers will definitely be changing and this will, I'm quite sure, aid O'Malley.

Going back to the comptroller race, I think there will be pressure Schaeffer to reconsider his decision. Peter Franchot and Janet Owens realize that their dividing up the anti-Schaeffer vote although Franchot thinks that Owens takes votes away from Schaeffer and he professes to like the fact that she's in the race.

In the AG race, I would say the early favorite is Doug Gansler but Tom Perez is definitely going to give him a race. Gansler has the advantage of socking away a lot of money and I think that Perez will definitely try to create a coaltion of left wing or "progressive" people. The Republicans have fieled a candidate for the AG race but as far as I know, no well known candidate has come forward for the comptroller race.

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Bethesda, Md.: What shot does Schaefer have in winning re-election?

Mark Plotkin: Schaeffer is 84 years old. There are many questions about his disposition and overall temperament and many just feel that he's stayed too long but he does have 100 percent name recognition and a strong base in Baltimore City and Baltimore County. He, to many, is the kind of politician that people either love or hate. But I think he realizes he's in a real race this time. I think his mood, which was described yesterday in a Post article, is that of sobriety and seriousness. The madcap mayor, I don't think, is gonna be in evidence.

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Baltimore, Md.: You left "Senate" off of your list of hot races. Will Duncan dropping out raise the profile of either Democratic Senate candidate?

Mark Plotkin: Thank you for briinging up the Senate races. I don't think Duncan's dropping out will affect the Senate race in any way. Democratic leaders are concerned that if Mfume does not win the most traditional hardcore supporters of the party, African American voters comprise 409 percent of the Democratic primary vote, will not vote for Steele but just sit home. Ben Cardin is now viewed as the frontrunner in terms of fundraising, poll numbers and endorsements but do not underestimate the intensity of the Mfume support. Mfume will be on the Politics Program on July 7.

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Potomac, Md.: How do you see Duncan's withdrawal affecting the Maryland AG race? Though there was no formal partnership, it was easy up until this point to view Gansler and Duncan as a package.

Mark Plotkin: I don't think Duncan's withdrawal will affect the Maryland AG race. I think that Gansler might take objection to your estimation that he and Duncan were a package. I don't think he wanted to be grouped with Duncan like that.

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Lynchburg, Va.: What do you think are the Five major senate races at this point in the election process?

Mark Plotkin: That's a good question. The ones that immediately come to mind are Maryland, which I talked about, if the Republicans and Steele could win, that would be a major breakthrough for them with an African American candidate who is a Republican who could win in an overwhelmingly Democratic state. The next state would be Pennsylvania, where the incumbent Republican, Rick Santorum, is presently trailing Bob Casey. Santorum is the number three Republican in the Senate and Democrats definitely want to pick that seat up. Santorum beat Harris Wofford in 1994 and Pennsylvania really is the most Democratic megastate.

The next race is also one of local interest: Virginia. If Jim Webb should beat George Allen who has presidential ambitions, that would be an unbelievable coup for the Democrats.

The fourth race is really a Democratic primary race that's taking place on the unlikely date of Aug. 8 where Joe Lieberman is being contested by an antiwar Democrat, Ned Lamont. Lieberman is so worried about this race that he's considering leaving the Democratic party and running as an independent.

The fifth race where Republicans feel they could have a pickup is in Minnesota where Mark Dayton, the Democrat, is retiring. They elected a Republican governor and there is a strong anti-abortion consitutuency there. This is considered a state that is always in play in presidential elections.

I'll add one last one: Arizona, where there's been a spate of articles saying that the incumbent, John Kyl, is in trouble. For the Democrats to win a Senate seat in Arizona, that would really be something.

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Arlington, Va.: In an article in The Post this morning about worries among Virginia Republicans, there was an indication that they worry about the re-electability of both Tom Davis and Frank Wolf. Has Northern Virginia changed so much that Frank Wolf is in trouble?

washingtonpost.com: Northern Va. Republicans Try to Regroup (Post, June 22)

Mark Plotkin: I don't think Frank Wolf is in trouble at all. I think Tom Davis's district is more vulnerable but he did win two years ago with 60 percent of the vote. Andy Hurst concedes that Davis has been "to every barbecue in the district" but still feels that the district has changed significantly in the past few years and it is incumbent upon him to make a case that Davis should be targeted.

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Foggy Bottom, Washington, D.C.: Can cab meters be considered political? I think that's ALL they are. Rumors are afoot that the licensing fees cabbies pay now have gone from under $100 to over $1,000 in a very short time. Who's getting that money and for what? Rumors are afoot that the meters are already bought and sitting in a warehouse. Rumors are afoot that with metering will come one company to run the system, a company, not a board, and that company will be owned by one of the mayor's pals. What can you tell us about the taxi commission? What does it do, and especially what does it do with the millions that will be taken in on cabbie licenses in the next year or so (6,500 cabs X $1,000 for a license = $6.5 million, right?).

Mark Plotkin: I'm glad this subject has come up and I'm going to be talking about this issue with Michael Brown tomorrow on the Politics Program on Washington Post Radio, 1500 AM.

I think that the system in the city which allows for individuals to buy their own cabs and not be at the mercy of big companies is a good one and that meters are a trojan horse for really doing away with independent, entrepreneurial owners.

I got a call from Caustin Toney of the D.C. Taxicab Commission pushing the meter question. The mayor wants meters but I don't know about the Council.

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Falls Church, Va.: In Virginia, have there been any polls on the George Allen vs. James Webb contest?

Mark Plotkin: No, there have not been polls that I have seen on the Allen-Webb race but there sure will be and I'll see if Larry Sabato is right with that great line, "Jim Webb is George Allens' worst nightmare."

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Washington, D.C.: At this stage is the DC mayor's race essentially a two person race between Cropp and Fenty? And, if so, what are your thoughts on what this means for the city's future in the next 4 years?

Mark Plotkin: Yes, at this point with about 68 days to go, it does look like a two-person race between Cropp and Fenty. There were reports late last week which were denied by both camps that Cropp called Johns and asked her to get out of the race. Johns told me that no such call took place. Cropp has reason to worry about Johns. She, by background, and gender cuts into Cropp's constituency. I actually thought Marie Johns would raise more money and be further along but there's still time for her to gain some momentum.

What is happening in the D.C. mayor's race is that Cropp's major endorsers -- Mayor Williams and Jack Evans -- are trying to portray Fenty as not smart enough to be mayor and as an AWOL councilmember. The mayor went even further at a Cropp fundraiser and used the following line: "Any jackass can burn down a barn. It takes someone to build the barn." He later apologized and said he was not referring to Fenty but that's not the inference everybody got.

Councilmember Evans said the following: "Do we want a mayor who knows so little (referring to Fenty)?"

I think the mayor is really passionate on this subject, not a word usually used in association with him. He will do anything and everything to make sure Fenty isn't elected.

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Washington, D.C.: What is the status of the DC FAIR voting rights legislation? Will it get out of the Judiciary Committee this year?

Mark Plotkin: The D.C. Fair voting legislation resides in the judiciary commitee where James Sensenbrenner, its chairman, has given a written commitment to Tom Davis that he will mark up the bill. As I've said before, that does not mean he will vote for the bill and even if it should clear the Judiciary Committee, I still have serious doubts that the House Republican leadership will allow a vote.

Tom Davis told me that if they allow a vote he thinks it will win. And then the Senate will have to take it up and he expects that to have a favorable outcome and the president would have no choice but to sign it. There then might be a legal challenge saying that this could not be done by simple statute and that a constiutional amendment is required.

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Orlando, Fla.: How much influence will Marion Barry have on the race for council chair-person? I understand he is supporting Vincent Gray for chairman. I do remember former chairman Sterling Tucker complaining in 1982 that he was "run over by the Barry machine" in his attempt to reclaim the Chairmanhip and use it as a platform to run for Mayor again or to acceed to the job of Mayor with a hoped for Barry mis-step.

Mark Plotkin: I don't think Marion Barry will have much influence on the chair race. Vince Gray surely will not talk about it west of the park where a Barry endorsement would be a definite handicap.

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Washington, D.C.: People have been saying that Eleanor Holmes Norton's recent campaign activities have been a direct response to Dem. challenger Andy Miscuk. Do you think there is any truth to this?

This article for instance:

I tend to agree with the Hill News article. I just received a "newsletter" (paid for by the taxpayers) from Norton highlighting several points that seem to be in direct response to Miscuk's campain platform--especially the Fair and Equal Voting Rights Act.

Mark Plotkin: Well, Eleanor Holmes Norton hasn't had opposition since she first got elected in 1990. In terms of her newsletter, she probably would've highlighted the fair act anyway but the Miscuk has made such a big deal of it, she needs to respond. I think he's going to get a surprising protest vote but in no way is Norton vulnerable. This guy is not known very well and doesn't have the resources to mount a citywide campaign. But he will surprise you with some numbers in Wards 1, 2, 3 and 6. He'll get barely anything in 4, 5, 7 and 8. In fact he'll get wiped out there.

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Washington, D.C.: By not signing off on the Mayor's proposed compromise for parking garages and development by the new ballpark, the Lerners appear to be maintaining all of their legal options. Unless the Lerners change their minds and decide to embrace the Mayor's proposed compromise, in your opinion is it likely that the stadium project will end up getting mired in contentious litigation?

Mark Plotkin: Well, that's an option. I don't think the Lerners want to sue. All taht would do is delay the completition of the project but they do have a definite view on these things and I'm sure they're gonna be battling for their own point of view. The mayor feels that the recent "compromise" will satisfy everybody. But the Lerners were not at the press conference announcing the supposed compromise. Their absence was conspicuous and telling.

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San Francisco, Calif.: Re Webb vs. Allen: here's today's interactive chart from the Wall Street Journal, with a Zogby poll showing Allen below 50 percent and Webb not far behind.

Mark Plotkin: Thank you for bringing that poll to my attention. That supports the feeling that the entire Democratic party establishment had that Webb would pose a strong race against Allen. Webb now needs to raise some serious money and improve his campaign persona but I don't think Allen takes him for granted and would surely have preferred to run against Harris Miller.

What I'm gonna watch for is how actively presidential aspirant Mark Warner campaigns for Webb in this race.

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washingtonpost.com: Interactive Poll

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Silver Spring, Md.: What do you think this means for Duncan's future political aspirations? Presumably he won't open a last minute campaign against Leggett and Silverman to keep his current MoCo position, right? Do you think we'll see him re-emerge with a bid for US senator or Rep or something ever? Or do you think he's done for good now?

Mark Plotkin: No, I think he's through with politics for a while and I don't quite know what happens next. I don't think he'll run for Congress and once the governor and senator positions are occupied, that closes off a lot of the options. If health reasons are why he is not running that's sad and I'm sure everybody wishes him well. He's been a popular and effective county executive and former mayor and really has had an admirable record. It's a shame they've raised all that money and spent all that time and not have the opportunity to see how you would do on the ballot.

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Alexandria, Va.: Please give your honest opinion if Webb is the real thing, or if he will fizzle before the November election. (Honestly, I cannot tell where he stands on issues.)

Mark Plotkin: I don't think he'll fizzle because the national Democratic Party won't let him fizzle. He has to improve as a candidate but this seat is so important to the Democrats that they will definitely attempt to pour in a lot of money. Surrogates and attempt to create a lot of attention in this race. I repeat, George Allen two years ago was the chairman of the Republican Senate Campaign Committete and that committee is responsible for them picking up four seats. They want to knock him off and finish off his political career.

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