Baseball

Washington Post sports columnist Thomas Boswell was online Friday, July 7, at 11 a.m. ET to take your questions and comments about the Washington Nationals, Major League Baseball and his recent columns .

The transcript follows.

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Burke, Va.: Good morning Mr. Boswell,

Nice column on Zim. My wife and I sweated through the game on the 4th, but our reward was witnessing his walk-off HR. The stuff that makes baseball so much fun to watch in person.

My Q. What's wrong with Livan? Clearly he's not the pitcher he was. Have the mega pitch count games of his past caught up with him for good? Just think what the Nats would be achieving if he was the Livan of old and John Patterson could stay off the DL for a season. Ah, it usually comes down to pitching, doesn't it?

Tom Boswell: Livan and Patterson, along with Cordero, were the three key Nationals who needed to be productive this season to overcome the various pitching loses of Loaiza, Carassco, Ayala, Lawrence, Astacio. Patterson has one win and can't seem to stay healthy. They're protecting him because he's a core part of the rotation in the future. But he's 28 and has never won 10 games in a season. However, as yesterday showed, Hernandez is the biggest, and most important disappointment. After his knee surgery it was assumed __and not just by the Nats__ that Livan would ADD a couple of mph on his fastball and be better. There was even talk in Fla. that this was his year to win 18 or 20. Instead, he has lost a couple of more mph off his fastball. The question is obvious: Is he a workhorse pitcher who is simply worn out?

Until Hernandez can consistently throw 89-90 again, so that his other pitches are effective, he's going to be a back-end of the rotation pitcher, not a front-end ace. With his ERA at 5.94, any and all negative thoughts are sensible.

And you can bet he's having them all. This guy is going to movies at 2 a.m. before games at 1 p.m. that he is starting so that he can "change my luck."

It isn't luck he needs. It's a fastball.

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washingtonpost.com: Rookie Is a Quick Study, (Post, July 6)

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Arlington, Va.: Just say no to the firesale. This is actually a pretty good team which could really compete with 2 more good pitchers. They have chemistry and actually seem to have fun playing together. Am I the only one who sees this?

Tom Boswell: You're certainly at the optimistic end of the spectrum. And where are those two good pitchers going to come from? Patterson would be one. Do you see Livan correctly some mysterious mechanical flaw? They've already given auditions to every starting pitcher in the organization. But, yes, if Patterson goes 9-5 the rest of the season, you could be pleasantly surprised. Vidro and Hernandez have expensive contracts. That doesn't work well at "fire sales!" Guillen, hitting .210 and having one physical problem after another, won't be easy to move. Only Soriano can obviously fetch quite a bit.

The fascinating question: Now that Soriano has made the mid-season "I'd like to stay" sounds __which are good news__ but are also very similar to the "make me an offer and set my market value" sounds, we're going to find out whether the Lerners and Kasten want to spend $70-million for five years (perhaps) on a player who will be 33-34-35 when the team is (in theory) much improved.

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Arlington, Va.: Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately) I didn't get to see the Nationals Wednesday night game against the Marlins. The final score was 18-9 in favor of the Marlins but I noticed in the box score that a Marlins pitcher got credit for a save. From what I can tell, Renyel Pinto entered the game in the 7th inning with the Marlins leading 15-5. He gave up 4 runs over 3 innings (with the Marlins scoring 3 runs of their own) to "earn" the save. How are the rules written that a pitcher can have a 9 run lead (minimum) and still get a "save"?

Tom Boswell: If you pitch the last three innings, you can be given a save no matter what the score it.

As I walked out, a man behind me said, "I've been going to baseball games since 1958 in Griffith Stadium and that is the worst baseball game I have ever seen in myself. They even gave a double (to Zimmerman) on a fly ball where four guys were standing under it and it hit one of them in the head."

I don't know if it was the worst game I ever saw, but it was a contender. As I have mentioned, the Nats are in a period where they play some of the worst teams in baseball. It's helping! Though, on some night, the teams seem to contaminate each other. Just some terrible gaffs. Schneider hit a routine fly to left and a routine grounder to short yesterday and ended up on second base and first base. I believe he ended up scoring the tying run, at 7-7, and the winning run, at 8-7, after those two bumbles.

The Nats are 5-2 on their current home stand yet have lost 11-1 and 18-9 in the two loses. They are "hot," yet have had their starting pitchers KOed in the second inning two days in a row. Strange days indeed! However, these walk-off hits in RFK tend to keep a team's spirits up.

You want weird, here's weird. The Yankees are 48-35 and 7 games out of the A.L. wildcard. The Nats are 38-49 and are 7 1/2 games out of the N.L. wildcard.

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Springfield, Va.: Those comments by Soriano are really going to complicate the Nats moves leading up to the deadline. My question is, is there any chance they can start talking to his agent about a new contract now, before they have to decide if they want to trade him?

Tom Boswell: Oh, they'll talk, you can be sure of that. The most interesting comment that Soriano made to Barry was that EVEN IF HE IS TRADED he's very interested in coming back to the Nationals as a free agent. That is unusual. It's almost like he's telling the Nats to get young players for him, then resign him in the winter. I don't think this is some exotic strategy on his part. But a team (Nats) might be grateful enough to such a player to make him an off-season offer they might not otherwise have considered. How many stars leave open the option: Trade me for prospects, then resign me at market value to play the outfield __which I hated so much four months ago that I didn't take the field when my name was put in the lineup to play LF.

You may remember that I have said several times that I thought __at some point this season__ Soriano might enjoy leftfield enough, and improve enough, that he might actually see the move as a career plus. He's got a ton of pride and making the All-Star team in left as a STARTER was enormously important to him.

Core to Soriano's personality, as I've mentioned, is his long bumpy road to Washington, including two struggling years in Japan when he was 17 and 18. This guy, at every stop, has wanted to SETTLE DOWN. There's psychology, not just cash, at work here.

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washingtonpost.com: Soriano Says He Wants to Stay In D.C., (Post, July 6)

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Oldie Townie: "we're going to find out whether the Lerners and Kasten want to spend $70-million for five years." Why not spend? The team needs someone to market around. Soriano's as good a player as any -- plus, he could always be traded if the team's development takes longer than expected. On a related note, any signs that the Lerners plan to market this team? The Nats visibility around town is laughable -- are they planning to remedy it?

Tom Boswell: How much money a team can spend is connected to how much revenue a team thinks it can make. Nats attendance has been at the very low end of my worst-case-scenario for this season __~26,700. That is very poor for a team which, while nowhere near being a contender, is not atrocious either. A team on pace for 71-91 __but not >100 loses__ in a town that didn't have baseball for 33 years season might be expected to rank higher than its current 17th in attendance in baseball.

In a new park, what should/would the Nats payroll be? I'd say that $90M would be in the ballpark. (Hey, it's easy to spend other people's money, so lets do it.) If that's the ballpark figure, then Soriano, at $14M/yr, is 16% of your whole budget. For a player who wants to be a leadoff man despite a low on-base percentage. This isn't as easy a decision as some may think. But it's fascinating to see Soriano reverse the agenda: "My public position is that 'I want you.' NOW, do you want me?"

Retaining Bowden as GM didn't make Soriano want to leave, did it? Interesting twist.

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Washington, D.C.: What are your thoughts on the All-Star selection process? Is there any way to get the mid-summer classic back to the way it was, the best players in baseball taking a day off to play for fun?

Tom Boswell: No, there is no such way.

We're probably lucky the players are as enthusiastic as they are. After the Strike in '94, there was a lot of internal pressure among players to "pay the fans back." That helped the All-Star game. Some of that is wearing off.

Glad to see a favorite name _Nomar__ make the NL team, but astonished that Liriano was left off the AL staff. W-L percentage aside, Ozzie Guillen is having a bad year. When you have a Gooden or Valenzuela phenom, he HAS to be show-cased in the All-Star game just as old favorite like Garciaparra are also part of the fabric. The game has never been entirely fair. You'll always see players off a current world champion who have a name (even a controversial name) like A.J. Pierzynski make the team over a player who's actually having a better year __O's Ramon Hernandez.

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Bethesda, Md.: I'm in favor of wholesale. I would prefer the Nats have young guys who are a part of the system, as opposed to a ragtag group of vets. The Nats need some young blood, and don't have any players to provide that (except Zim) over the next ten years. I envy a team like the Mets for having young guys like Wright and Reyes, who can anchor their infield (and offense), and then having guys like Milledge and Pelfry waiting in the wings. The Nats need a quality farm system badly. That's why a wholesale is necessary.

Tom Boswell: The Nationals have a perfectly acceptable core of young players or "young veterans" to keep.

Chad Cordero, Nick Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman, Bill Bray, Schneider (despite his lousy year so far), Patterson. At a lower level, Majewski and a couple of others. It's OK to keep a quality aging pro like Vidro IF you can't get real quality in return in a trade. But Bowden, and the people he has scouting now, are strong on judging young talent in other organizations. IMO, you should not trade Hernandez, Armas, Vidro, Guillen just for the sake of trading them. But you don't drive too hard a bargain, either. The players who would replace them __recent starters like Astacio, O'Connor and Hill__ or a 2nd baseman like Harris, aren't terribly much lower in talent.

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Mount Vernon, Va.: Not that we know that Bowden is going to be retained, can the Nationals now focus on populating their low levels of the minor leagues with competent instructors? The lack of dollars has led to a revolving door of instructors at the most critical level ... those facilitating the entry into professional baseball.

Tom Boswell: Bowden can't wait to start spending money on scouts and minor-league instructors. The Nats have been paper-thin there. I've mentioned that Bowden didn't even have a secretary. Hey, that payroll could go to another scout or coach in the minors.

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Seattle, Wash.: So, what would you say is the big story / surprise of the first half? For me, it's the the Detroit pitching staff.

Tom Boswell: I agree. But remember, last year at this time, every player at the All-Star game was talking about how "real" the Nats were and how they WOULDN'T fold.

The Tiger everyday lineup is pretty ordinary. They are not remotely close to being a .671 team. Good lord, that's 109 wins __more than '75 Reds or '86 Mets who were 108-win powerhouses. How will the Tigers react to coming back to earth? Which they will.

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Washington, D.C.: So where does Frank Robinson stand as manager for next year? I have mixed feelings on whether the Nats should retain him given some poor management decisions -but is anyone else (that is available) really going to be that much better?

Tom Boswell: In Atlanta, Kasten kept Bobby Cox as GM, even though they both knew that, at some point, he would be the long-term choice as manager of the team when it was "ready." Kasten always worried that if he put Cox in the job too soon __and he had two terrible seasons back-to-back__ that he would lose the clubhouse, lose credibility. Even so, Cox had one awful season, before the worst-to-first turnaround in '91. Now, the manager will be Bowden's call. But, if you think the Target Date to contend is '09 or '10, you don't want your long-term manager in place until '08 or '09, do you?

How long does Frank want to keep managing a team that isn't built to "win now" and which will, almost everyone in baseball assumes, no longer be his club to manage when it "grows up." It's touchy. Everybody wants to do right by Frank. But he has to decide, realistically, what WOULD be good for him. Where does he fit? What does he want to do several years from now? How long does he want to travel all season and grind his gut deciding whether to take O'Connor out in the 2nd inning when he's still ahead 4-3 __how do that one work out? When does he want to start doing whatever his future job may be? If he hangs onto the managing job too long, does he burn bridges? Lot of questions. But probably no hurry to answer them. This guy has his team at 38-49 with his entire starting rotation a complete mess since Opening Day. This season, you probably need to grade Frank Robinson on a curve.

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Arlington, Va.: How does the Weaver trade impact the possible market for Livan, Armas, or even Ortiz or Astacio? Seems like if the Angels can get a decent AA prospect for a guy who was DFA'd (and playing lousy before that), there should be a pretty good market for Livan, even as a back-of the-rotation starter. How much does a former GM's relationship with a player (like Minaya with Livan and Vidro) impact his willingness to deal for that player?

Tom Boswell: At the moment, there are 10 AL teams and 10 NL teams within 5 games of a playoff spot. A couple of others are within 7.

A lot of teams are going to be tempted to trade prospects. BUT, as Dave Sheinin documented well last Sunday, there are very few teams that are insane enough to give away elite PITCHING prospects. (The Yanks claim they won't deal Hughes.) No doubt the Nats will be able to acquire very promising position players. But who is going to part with a plausible top-of-the-rotation starter for any package the Nats could offer? That's the question. If you get such an offer, you grab that deal.

BTW, Jered Weaver is having a monster rookie season.

Minaya's familiarity with Livan and Vidro, and his respect for them as positive veteran influences in a pennant race, is the kind of thing that often matters.

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Washington, D.C.: I realize that one of the problems with 4th of July baseball in DC is the stifling weather. That probably helped hold the attendance down (along with all the other factors). Why not start the 4th of July games in DC later in the afternoon, so that the ending transitions nicely into the fireworks? That might be an especially good plan in the new stadium, since the fireworks might even be visible from the park. I understand that you never know when a game will end, but it's a thought.

Tom Boswell: It's certainly a good thought.

But the crowd on the 4th was awful. The Lerners have lot of ideas for the "reopening" of RFK on the 21st. Of course, they're starting with a very low level of expectation. I asked Mark Lerner what he hoped that fans could begin to expect at RFK. He said, "If you buy two hot dogs, they should be the same color."

(See, this is why you read chats. Where else do you get this kind of stuff.)

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Washington, D.C.: This might seem like a trivial question, but, what do you think about a jersey change to those nice looking "DC" ones? I've never really been a fan of these current ones.

Tom Boswell: I've liked the "DC" look since the first time I saw it.

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Crofton, Md.: Can you put in a pitch for the Harrisburg/Bowie series this weekend? Great chance to see both O's and Nats' prospects in your own back yard. I think the Nats should try to market the Harrisburg Senators more aggressively. They are playing winning baseball and are a lot of fun to watch.

Tom Boswell: You got it.

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New York, N.Y.: What do you think of this strategy concept for the Nationals. In order to get a big first inning going....When they are on the road: Say Ortiz pitched the night before, so no chance of the Nats needing him today, so put him in the lineup then pinch hit for him if the Nats go through he order and score a lot of runs - keep the momentum going! Then in the bottom of the 1st replace the "DH" with the intended starter. What do you think?

Tom Boswell: I'm having a brain cramp. There must be some reason why teams don't do this.

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Gaithersburg, Md.: So what other changes can we expect for the reopening? I've heard rumors of a repainting of the Howard seats. Anything else you can share?

Tom Boswell: "Rumor has it" that you're going to see a lot of banners and the walk from Metro to the main entrance will be as cheerful as they can make it. Things will be PLANTED. A lot of bright white paint needs to hit the interior concourse under the stands, IMO. When the Nats walk back into their (atrociously small in dingy) clubhouse, they BETTER get a nice surprise or the new owners should be ashamed. Whatever they're thinking of spending, increase it.

Lerner properties are well-known for CLEANLINESS. The place will be scrubbed to within an inch of its life. Everybody will judge how much concessions, and time-in-lines, can be improved. (I'm hoping for a new $100-million scoreboard and a new PA announcer. But I'd settle for one-out-of-two.)

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Washington, D.C.: Regarding the "NL DH" suggestion, and I've only heard this as an anecdote, apparently there is a rule that you have to put in a lineup that you intend to play. (This doesn't mean it has to be played, but it has to be intended.) This rule was put in place immediately after the DH was implemented, and some AL managers would do a similar thing, putting pitchers at DH low in the lineup so that they could pinch hit with the best pitcher-batter matchup when it came time for the DH at bat.

Tom Boswell: Thanks. I knew I was having a brain cramp.

(Or was I just petrified at the thought of what might happen tonight if Ortiz continues the Nats rich new tradition of getting knocked out in the second inning.)

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Arlington, Va.: How does the announcement of Bowden as "permanent" GM affect his credibility with other GM's around the league? Do such things matter in the course of working out a deal? Will it impact Bowden's incentives to look longer-term as opposed to shorter term, i.e. to be able to look to younger, less developed, but higher-ceiling players as opposed to "major-league ready" AAA players?

Tom Boswell: Absolutely. On all counts.

By the way, the Nats aren't the only team that doesn't announce the length of a GM's contract. (See "Red Sox.") The idea is that, since GMs make less than 1/10th as much as a star player, you can always fire the guy and eat the rest of his contract if he doesn't work out. So, in a sense, no GM really has long-term job security. OTOH, why on earth would you want to let the world know when the guy's OLD contract was running out? Then you have public debates about whether he should get a new deal. How does that help the team? So, they try to keep it a state secret. But common sense says Bowden got a three-year deal. They genuinely hope he's in the job forever, but if they don't like what they see in the future, he'll get fired __though not as quickly as a manager. Much of your organizational infrastructure is hired by the GM. When you fire him, there can be considerable destabilization. When you fire a manager, all you have to do is get a few one and tell him "hire the coaching staff you want, but, please, if you can, keep these one-or-two guys because they've done a good job."

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Fairfax, Va.: A new PA announcer? Where can I apply for the job?

Tom Boswell: That was a harsh and unnecessary wisecrack. Please retract.

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RE: Pinch Hitter Scenario: Didn't Earl Weaver do something like this with his DH a few times - if a player was excused from a game due to a death in the family, etc. Earl would list him as DH, to give him flexibility if the starting pitcher got knocked early?

Tom Boswell: Yes.

Good memory. There was only one Earl. You came to the park every day wondering if he'd do something you'd never seen before, say something outrageous or...ooops...pick that day to chew your head off for something you'd written. I remember driving to the park one day and hearing Earl blasting my story that day on his own pre-game radio show.

"I got that radio show JUST FOR YOU," he rasped. I'm lucky he didn't buy a newspaper, too, just to get equal time.

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Phoenixville, Pa.: When Mike Piazza finally makes it to Cooperstown, which team will he represent: Dodgers, Florida, Mets or Padres? Or at least 3 of the 4?

Tom Boswell: His plaque in Cooperstown better not include an image of ANY catcher's equipment.

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Washington, D.C.: Boz,

On July 7th, 2005 the Nationals were 51-34. Today the Mets are 51-34. Craziness.

That means that in the past year the Nats have gone 30-47 and 38-49 for a record of 68-96. It appears they are slightly better the first half of this year then they were the end of last year. It's a funny game.

Tom Boswell: "It's a funny game."

Yes, but it gets progressively less humorous as your starting rotation deteriorates.

Every aspect of a team __its bullpen, its bench depth__ is built around the ASSUMPTION of a ton of quality starts: at least six innings and no more than three earned runs.

To the degree that the Nats get a merely-stable rotation in the second half, they will be surprising successful. (Because plenty of other puzzle-pieces, including a much better offense, are currently in place). To the degree that they don't, you will see more of that 68-96 product.

Note: In my E-mail column this week, I wrote about the Nats new-found ability to score in RFK. Both last year and this year, the Nats averaged 4.32 runs-a-game on the road. But last year, they averaged 3.57 runs at home __an almost unbelievably low total, no matter how big the park.

This year, the runs-per-game in RFK are up to 4.75! Even more than they score on the road. Zimmerman has hit more than 100 points higher at RFK and even Guillen has slugged .500 at home. But he's hitting .167 on the road.

This improved hitting is the reason that a relatively small improvement in starting pitching could produce an outsized improvement in the 68-96 play of the last year. However, if/when Soriano/Guillen/Vidro are traded, the offense may sag back down.

P.S.: Thanks for that July 7th to July 7th stat.

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Washington, D.C.: I don't always agree with what you say, but we do get our money's worth with your 90 min plus chats.

Thanks.

Tom Boswell: You're welcome.

And thanks for reminding me of the time. What on earth am I doing STILL chatting. See you folks next week. As always, I'll enjoy reading the many questions I didn't get to answer.

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Harrisburg, Pa: Last week you stated the Phillies shouldn't be broken up, and if anyone thought they should write in. I did, but missed the cut-off. So here I go again.

The Phillies should be dismantled because they have had Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu in the same outfield since 2000. They both have had pretty good stats, and ZERO playoff appearances. Burrell strikes out a ton, and now has a bad foot which severely limits his already limited range and speed. Bobby Abreu has tremendous batting skills (a great OPS) and steals bases, but he gives zero effort in the field. None. Ask Bill Conlin, Todd Zolecki, or Harry Kalas about Abreu's fielding next time you see them. Plus, both of these guys are scheduled to make almost $30 million TOGETHER next year, and the Phillies have 2 outfielders on the bench that are ready to start (Dave Dellucci and Shane Victorino). So, since the Yanks are hurting for OF help, and money is no object to Steinbrenner, send 'em both off.

Tom Boswell: Thanks for that good synopsis. If the Phils are "broken up," then the N.L. East may be so bad this year than the Nats could finish second or third in the division __and still be 10 games under .500.

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Anacostia: Hey Boz

Now that the Zoning Commission has approved Mayor Williams' plans, what other obstacles do you think will get in the way of the project?

Thanks. Love the chats, btw.

Tom Boswell: I expect a comparable crisis/disaster every six weeks.

The Lerners already know the town but I hope dealing with D.C. doesn't leave Kasten down on his knees in tears. As we were talking about the zoning issues coming up, I wanted to hand him an extra-large box of Kleenex. He's accustomed to "Atlanta: The City That Works." Make your own jokes.

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