G8 Summit Meets in Russia

Leaders to Discuss Nonproliferation and Democracy

John J. Kirton , director of the University of Toronto's G8 Research Group , was online on Friday, July 14 at 10 a.m. ET from the International Media Center in St. Petersburg, where he led a team of experts and students to analyze the summit meetings. Leaders from the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Great Britain, Japan, Canada, Russia and the European Union were expected to discuss energy and health issues, as well as the situations in North Korea and Iran.

Full Coverage of the Group of Eight 2006 Summit

Since April 2005, Kirton has been advising the Russian government in its preparations for hosting the 2006 St. Petersburg Summit. He is a member of the advisory council of Civil G8 -- a forum of non-governmental organizations held before the G8 summit. Kirton is an associate professor of Political Science and series editor for Ashgate Publishing's G8 and Global Governance series, Global Finance series, and Global Environmental Governance series. Kirton received his PhD from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, D.C.

The transcript follows:

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Fujisawa, Kanagawa, Japan : 1. Iran and civilian military nuclear development; Could U.N. Security Council able to summarize G8 foreign ministers' the three-pages confidential document submitted to 15-member nations summary on Iran's uranium enrichment and legally abiding partnership and/or assurances of a reliable supply of nuclear fuel stored outside of the country? 2. What is your expert column timely items of concern over the succeeding result of G8 Summit and Russia new membership entry into WTO?

John J. Kirton: Good question. On Iran, it will be difficult for the G8 credibly to convince Tehran to accept the Six-Power deal on offer, as long as Germany prevents the G8 from declaring that civilian nuclear power has an important part to play in meeting the G8's own future energy security needs. It is difficult for the United Nations Security Council to tell Iran to give up a nuclear weapons program when all five of the P5 veto powers on the UNSC have independent nuclear capabilities of their own.

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Delhi, India: President Putin enjoys 70 percent support among Russians in popularity poll. How much of this- do you think is due to 6.4 percent growth rate of Russian economy and does this not signify that it is economic well being and not esoteric political wellness matter more for people? Russia is a fast developing economy with a high GDP base already and is energy as well technologically self sufficient and developed enough to do the role of technology exporter like some of the West European countries. Is it possible that Russia may take over USA in GDP and most of the West European countries in technology export? If not, why not?

John J. Kirton: Good to hear from you in India. President Putin is by far the most genuinely domestically popular leader among the G8 heads at the Summit. This is not simply due to Russia's economic growth but also to his reputation as a strong, decisive, self-disciplined leader after the Yeltsin years. Moreover within the G8 Russia has experienced more deaths from terrorism -- from Chechnya -- than the U.S. did on September 11, 2001. Putin has recently done very well in the fight against terrorism, having just seen killed the two top leaders of the Chechnya terrorist movement in a world where Bush still faces an Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar. More broadly, while Russia is unlikely to overtake the U.S. in GDP growth, the fact that the U.S. and others depended on Russian space capabilities to resupply the international space station for the past few years shows that Russian technological prowess is still quite advanced in some spheres.

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John J. Kirton: To our friend from Fujisawa, who also asked about the WTO: It is good that the Americans have finally signaled that they will allow Russia to enter the WTO, and it is to be hoped that this can be clearly done before the Summit starts. That way President Putin, as host, will have a strong incentive to use this summit to forge the EU-U.S. deal on agriculture that is necessary to break the WTO logjam and get the Doha Development Agenda finally done.

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Wheaton, Md.: Do you think there will be mention of the current conflict between Israel and the terrorists? Will Bush and the G8 be more supportive or critical of Israel?

John J. Kirton: Hello, Wheaton. The Israeli invasion of Lebanon will be a key topic from the very start of the Summit. The G8 leaders could well issue a statement on it. The G8 will call for a de-escalation of the conflict spiral and place the balance of its criticism on Israel, as it is now the party to the conflict that is exacerbating it the most.

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New Hampshire: Good morning Mr. Kirton, and thank you for taking my question. I see the agenda for the G8 posted here includes health, energy, North Korea and Iran. I personally can see no greater issues than Palestine/Lebanon/Israel, Iraq and Afghanistan and Global Warming. Why are none of these listed? I believe that the entire region is in danger of exploding with the aggressive behavior of the US and now Israel and a complete refusal of either of these powers to engage in real diplomacy. Do you think that the agenda will change to reflect these very serious issues that truly affect all nations? Do you believe that these meetings will result in positive outcomes or is it all for show?

John J. Kirton: You're welcome, New Hampshire. Russia's priorities, as host of the Summit, are indeed energy security, infectious disease and education. But the Summit will also deal with Palestine, Lebanon, Israel, Iraq and Afghanistan as well as global warming. The latter -- global warming -- will be dealt with as part of the seventh component of energy security. In the view of the U.S. and the G8 the problem of Iran is integrally connected to that of Palestine and Lebanon, as well as Iraq and Afghanistan -- the great fear that terrorists will get weapons of mass destruction of a nuclear sort. The U.S. has adjusted its position vis-a-vis Iran to offer the united Six Party package, which Tehran has just rejected. The Iranian revolution of 1979, which looms large in the American mind, was an exceptional event, whose threatening legacy remains to this day. The good news is that Russia, this year's G8 host, is the one G8 power with good relations with Tehran and a good sense of what is really going on within the country behind the headlines. If Putin can rise to the occasion, it is possible to contemplate a Russian-pioneered G8-endorsed approach to Tehran that will finally work.

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Montreal, Canada: John, How is Stephen Harper likely to be received at the G8, especially given his stance on climate change? What is Canada trying to or able to accomplish at this year's summit? Thank you.

John J. Kirton: Bonjour, Montreal. Prime Minister Harper will be very well received at this summit, because he is one of the very few leaders who knows a great deal about the policies required to produce energy, given his background with energy policy.

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washingtonpost.com: Mr. Kirton, can you tell us more about the governmental advising you have done in preparation for the 2006 summit?

John J. Kirton: Absolutely. We have been involved in several ways, in fact. The Russians have fond memories of the Canadian-hosted Kananaskis Summit in 2002, which was when the G7 leaders invited Russia to host the summit in 2006. So even before the Gleneagles Summit last summer, the G8 Research Group facilitated. Canada is also the only other country in the G8 that was not present at the very first summit in 1975 and thus had the experience of being a new addition to the club. Not surprisingly, the Russians approached the Canadian government asking for advice, under Canada's "good governance" program on how to host a successful summit. The government in turn enlisted the services of the G8 Research Group, which has long served as the world's independent source of information and analysis on the G8. As Russia has done much to democratize the G8 process through its "Civil G8" mechanism, I was pleased to accept an invitation in January to serve as a member of the International Advisory Council of Civil G8. In fact, as you will soon see on the G8 Information Centre web site (http://www.g8.utoronto.ca) during President Putin's July 4 visit to Civil G8's nongovernmental forum he made 17 commitments to do things at the St Petersburg Summit in response to civil society concerns. We'll all be watching with great interest to see how well he does.

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Washington, D.C.: Recently I read a headline which indicated that China is not interested in joining the G8. With China's economy growing by double digits or near double digits each year, and with China holding about $300 billion in American Treasury bills, shouldn't we make more of an effort to include China in world political and economic affairs?

John J. Kirton: Hello Washington. The G8 -- then of course the G7 -- was created in 1975 to protect within its members and to protect globally the values of "open democracy, individual liberty and social advance." Communist China, still an authoritarian single-party state today, shows no sign of moving toward making the basic strategic decision that it recognizes the communist system is not working and that it thus wants to become a democratic polity. This Russia started to do under the USSR's Mr Gorbachov in 1989 and is only hosting its first regular summit 17 years later. Short of a revolution, it will likely be a long time before communist China becomes a member of the club. Remember, the beleaguered democratic community thought an oil- and commodity-rich Soviet Union had a lot of money, back in 1975, when the G7/8 was first formed. In short, it has always been and always will be about democracy and not about the money at all.

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Arlington, Va.: Will anyone raise the issue of Chechnya at this summit?

John J. Kirton: Greetings, Arlington. Chechnya will indeed be discussed, under the heading of terrorism, as Mr Putin will proudly point to how the two Chechnyan leaders of the terrorist movement in a world in which bin Laden and Omar are still at large. President Putin may also talk about the difficulties of guaranteeing individual liberties in situations such as Chechnya and Guantanamo, where countries are facing deadly terrorist attacks. He will be pleased to report on the progress he is making in improving human rights in Chechnya and may well ask President Bush how will respond to the Supreme Court's recent decision.

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Luton, U.K.: I would like to see the G8 come up with a meaningful condemnation of Israel's actions in Lebanon and Gaza rather than the ineffectual statements that are currently being made. Bush says the G8 should speak with one voice on this issue as long as it reflects his position! I hope France, Russia and others will stand up for justice and stand up to the U.S. and condemn Israel's disproportionate response to the current conflict. Sigh, it will never happen though and this is exactly one of the reasons I despair of the G8 and them doing or saying anything meaningful.

John J. Kirton: I share your sentiment in Luton, but I'm optimistic that President Bush certainly does not want the situation in the Middle East following Israel's invasion of Lebanon to spiral any further out of control. Doing so harms the global economy -- look at today's oil prices! -- and makes it more difficult to accomplish American objectives in Iran and Iraq. The G8 will take up this issue as a matter of priority when it first gets to work and will probably issue a statement in which Israel will come in for considerable criticism for its response. It is harder to know how President Bush might respond if his own country had immediate neighbours dedicated to destroying it and who were regularly attacking and killing its civilians as well as capturing its soldiers. But he recognizes there is no solution other than getting back to the road map he sketched out some time ago.

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Washington, D.C: Is Russia a democratic country?

John J. Kirton: Long ago, Russia made a strategic decision to become a democracy. It is steadily becoming more of a democracy in practice every year through a process driven from the top down. This second Russian revolution is very different from the first one of 1917, or the French revolution of 1789 (Happy Bastille Day, by the way) or the American revolution of 1776, all of which were revolutions from the bottom up. The U.S., as a former member of British North America, has had a close to a millennium of experience in deepening its democracy, starting with the Magna Carta of 1066. Even it today experiences some difficulty: witness the Supreme Court's recent decision on Guantanamo and the great crisis of Watergate back in the 1970s, when the G7/8 was first formed. Russia has only been at it for 17 years at most.

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John J. Kirton: This G8 is making a meaningful difference in deepening democracy in Russia, in fact, and this G8-led engagement is what should be sustained and enriched in the years ahead.

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New Hampshire: Just a follow up, sir. If proliferation and distribution of nukes is a major concern, do you anticipate any discussion or resolution to the problem of the large stores of unsecured nuclear weapons in the former Soviet Union? Do you think there will be talk of trying to reduce the number of nuclear weapons worldwide?

John J. Kirton: New Hampshire, there won't be as much talk as there should be of reducing the number of nuclear weapons, but the G8 leaders will approve and extend the Global Partnership against Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction, under which Russia is now -- with G8 help -- destroying its nuclear submarines, those deadly relics of a long-gone Cold War age. President Putin is also eager to embark on a new round of negotiations with the U.S. on strategic arms reduction. That's a useful instinct at the very moment when we are telling the Iranians they must not get the bomb. However, for real progress, we'll have to wait until the G8 is hosted by Germany in 2007, Japan in 2008, Italy in 2009 and then Canada in 2010 -- the four G8 members that do not have nuclear weapons of their own.

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John J. Kirton: By then there may be a nuclear accident -- a Three Mile Island -- that will halt America's own nuclear weapons program as surely as the real Three Mile Island accident halted America's civilian power one.

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John J. Kirton: President Bush is an accomplish practitioner of summit diplomacy, as he showed at the Sea Island Summit he hosted in 2004, when he adjusted to his partners' preferences to give Africa a central place. He is proving his G8 prowess again by adjusting to his partners' concerns on critical issues -- nuclear waste disposal, Russian membership in the WTO -- to get the spirit and dynamic of compromise flowing, even before the Summit begins. He knows he needs Russia, as well as his other neighbour Canada, and their world-leading supplies of oil, gas and uranium to give America the short-term energy security it so badly needs. And he has long shown leadership on issues such as infectious disease and at home on education, the other two priority themes on the Russian G8 agenda. He is also well aware that the war on terrorism has not yet been won. He knows the help of all his G8 partners if America is to win its long and costly war.

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John J. Kirton: Thank you very much for the opportunity to take questions from such a broad international audience. It has been a pleasure, and it has been very interesting to me to see what are the issues that are captivating your attention on the eve of the St. Petersburg Summit. I hope we have an opportunity to pick up this conversation again soon. Dosvedanya!

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