Post Politics Hour

Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

Washington Post chief political reporter Dan Balz was online Monday, July 31, at 11 a.m. ET .

Political analysis from Post reporters and interviews with top newsmakers. Listen live on Washington Post Radio or subscribe to a podcast of the show.

The transcript follows.

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Dan Balz: Good morning to everyone. Shailagh Murray, who was scheduled to do the chat this morning, is away and so I'm filling in. The Middle East is dominating the news again today, the president is in Florida, the secretary of state is heading back to Washington and Congress is ready for its August recess but the Senate is trying to get things cleaned up before leaving town.

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Denver, Colo.: Is Bush not talking a huge risk for the U.S. by not promoting an immediate ceasefire and a resolution to the conflict between Hezbollah and Israel?

Dan Balz: Before leaving for the United States, Secretary Rice said the United States is now trying to broker a deal that would include a ceasefire, an international force and an arms embargo against rearming Hezbollah. She said she believes there can be an agreement sometime this week.

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St. Petersburg, Fla.: Peter Baker's analysis piece this morning quotes Tony Snow: "We are confident that in the long run, people are going to be much happier living in freedom and democracy..."

One cannot help but sometimes think the Bush administration must envision the whole concept of "freedom and democracy" as some rosy Norman Rockwell picture: of town meetings down at the grange hall, of ice cream cones sitting on the porch swing, of sitting in front of the TV on a summer evening, taking in all the good news on Fox.  Certainly not the messy kind of democracy we've seen in Palestine and Lebanon (and Egypt, and on and on) They want democracy to flower, but only an acceptable, U.S. style democracy, but isn't it a little unrealistic to assume that democracy, American style, can be dropped into Anytown in the Mideast?

Are they really so convinced that they are the only ones who know what's best for the world?

washingtonpost.com: Crisis Could Undercut Bush's Long-Term Goals (Post, July 31 2006)

Dan Balz: President Bush has made the promotion of democracy a centerpiece of his second-term foreign policy, but as you say, democracy doesn't always bring American-style government. It didn't when the Palestinians held their election and the new government of Iraq isn't going to see the world the same way the Bush administration does, as everyone learned when the Iraqi Prime Minister was in Washington last week.

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Alexandria, Va.: Is it true the president is skipping his usual August vacation clearing brush?

Dan Balz: The president is going to Crawford late this week for about nine days and will be back in Crawford at the end month. Unlike past years, he will not spent the month of August at his ranch. This is seen as a bow to criticism that he has sometimes neglected important business while in Texas, although White House officials wouldn't put it that way, I'm sure.

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Boston, Mass.: Do you think the average voter understands the "poison pill" amendments the GOP added to the minimum wage bill? Or do you think GOPers running for reelection can claim they voted for an increase, knowing full well they poisoned it to the point of making it impossible for the Senate to pass?

Dan Balz: Campaigns are about making and winning an argument. The Republicans will decide what issues to use to make the argument that they've been effective and have helped improve life for American families. Democrats will argue the opposite. I can't tell you right now how the minimum wage fight will play out, but you can be sure that some House Republicans will be using it in their campaigns.

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Bowie, Md.: Thanks for filling in this morning. I have such great concerns for the situation (everywhere it seems), but in Lebanon right now. On the News Hour with Jim Lehreh last week, one of the guests restated about how we get such a sanitized version of the fighting whereas in other places, and in particular the Arab press, there is not a cleaned-up portrayal of death. At what point might our administration conclude that not calling for an immediate cease-fire puts us (the U.S.) in such a vulnerable position - lots of people in lots of places are, you can argue rightly or wrongly, just so darn angry at our country's policies.

Dan Balz: I think everyone has the same concerns about the fighting there and the tragic bombings on Sunday that killed so many Lebanese civilians only intensified those feelings. This could be a crucial week for the administration in trying to bring an end to the hostilities and if that doesn't work, the damage to the administration could be significant. I urge everyone to read Peter Baker's analysis in today Post. We'll provide a link to it.

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washingtonpost.com: Crisis Could Undercut Bush's Long-Term Goals , ( Post, July 31, 2006 )

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Chicago, Ill.: What's the latest on the Lieberman race? Any ideas on who is confident and who is worried?

Dan Balz: Lieberman is in deep trouble in his primary race against Ned Lamont. Dave Broder's Sunday column stated it quite starkly, which is that the passion is all on Lamont's side and in primaries especially, the passionate voters generally prevail. Lieberman has another week to turn things around. The primary is Tuesday, Aug. 8, and we'll be keeping close track of the campaign between now and then.

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Washington, D.C.: Mr. Balz:

Exactly which function of the Office of the Presidency cannot be executed from Crawford, Tex.?

Dan Balz: Technically none, but a president is more lightly staffed in places like Crawford than in the Oval Office. Last year, when Katrina hit, the chief of staff was away, a number of officials were attending the wedding of a colleague and the response was by their own admission too slow and inadequate. All White Houses say the president can function wherever he is in the world and that's true, but the White House is like any organization: when it's vacation time and people are away, reactions are slower and decisions are not as crisp.

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Yardley, Pa.: I'm beginning to wonder how serious the Democrats are about taking back the Senate. Santorum should be vulnerable here in Pennsylvania, but I've seen no sign of his challenger, Casey, here in Eastern Pa., and he's got a lot of work to do to bring out the vote in this area.

Dan Balz: I haven't been up there to look at the Santorum-Casey race yet, but I would guess Gov. Rendell is the person who is taking responsibility for turning out the vote in that part of the state, at least in southeastern Pennsylvania around Philadelphia. Rendell has always done very well in that part of the state and it's crucial that Democrats get a big turnout there if Casey hopes to defeat Santorum.

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Ithaca, N.Y.: Are the rumors true that Lieberman is willing to forgo the Independent run if he loses the primary?

Also, any updates on the Chaffee primary in RI and the chance of his possible loss equaling a Dem pickup in that state?

Dan Balz: Nothing more than rumors on that front. He has to file papers to run as an independent the day after the primary, so the decision will come quickly if he loses to Lamont.

Nothing significant to report out of Rhode Island. It's still a competitive primary and certainly a highly vulnerable seat in November.

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Trevose, Pa.: Is one problem for Lieberman the fact that it's a closed primary. Lincoln Chafee is sort of in a comparable position, but RI's primary allows I's to vote, which gives him a shot.

Dan Balz: The New York Times reported recently that independents and some Republicans have been registering as Democrats in order to vote in the Senate primary. It's not likely they're changing their registration to vote for Lieberman.

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Washington, D.C.: Another forecasting question:

If the Democrats do indeed take the House in November, which current Ranking Minority member will make the biggest splash as a new committee chair (like Dingle at Energy and Commerce, for example)?

Dan Balz: Rep. Dingell is a given -- given his past history as a committee chairman. One other to watch is where Rep. Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, who chairs the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, lands. He will get considerable credit if the Democrats take over the House -- and probably some criticism if they fail. He's aggressive and likely will be part of the leadership if Democrats are in control. But we're getting ahead of ourselves on this . . . .

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Chicago, Ill.: How much do national politicians drive the present political climate and how much are they driven by it? That is, if I were able to sit down with somebody from Congress or the White House and just talk about things, would I meet a relatively normal person whose public options then were dictated by fundraising, elections, media coverage, two-party politics, etc? Or would I meet an ideologue who has deliberately fashioned a political system to work the way it has, in a belief that doing so help them with their warped sense of priorities? Thanks (hope that makes sense).

Dan Balz: It's a good question and the answer is you would find both, depending on whom you sit down with. Many, many politicians are, if not totally normal (hey, neither are political reporters, rational, thoughtful and pretty bright. Some are very ideological and their decisions and actions are driven by those passions. One problem is that politicians too often hear only from ideologues on the right or left. They hear from people shaped by talk radio or blogs or by polarized debate on television. One problem today is that politicians spend less time getting to know colleagues from the opposing party. They live much more in a homogenous environment and tend to take on that coloration. Both parties are more homogenous then they were a few decades ago. So the conditions make breaking out of the partisanship more difficult.

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Dallas, Texas: Hello, Dan, can you tell me what was the outcome on the investigation of Bill Frist regarding his conveniently timed sale of stocks? Did I miss it?

Dan Balz: Still pending as far as I know.

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Bethesda, Md.: I remember August being a terrible month for John Kerry in the 2004 race. What do you think in hindsight were the main things the Democrats did wrong that caused them to lose the presidential election in 2004? It will be interesting to see if they're fixed for the midterms.

Dan Balz: August was a bad month for John Kerry. His convention didn't go as well as they had hoped; he and his campaign failed to answer the attacks from the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ads; and he got tangled up again on Iraq. I think in general the Democrats never found a way to deal with the issue of terrorism and security adequately and Kerry had trouble establishing his credibility on those issues because of his own discomfort with Iraq and his past history on the issue. The midterms, however, are a different animal so it's difficult to say what changes Democrats will make for this campaign versus the last. What will be more important is how the presidential candidates in 2008 learn from Kerry's campaign.

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Jersey City, N.J.: Dan: "This could be a crucial week for the administration in trying to bring an end to the hostilities and if that doesn't work, the damage to the administration could be significant."

Do you really think that, after the bombing yesterday, the administration still has another week before it suffers any damage, especially since the 'bombing pause' is apparently more words than deeds?

It would seem to me that the picture of Rice with the Israeli Defense Minister right when the bombing occurred has done plenty of damage already.

Dan Balz: I wasn't suggesting there hasn't been any damage, only that the longer this goes, the greater the damage.

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Washington, D.C.: I was surprised by the huge lead Allen has over Webb in Virginia as reported by The Post. Since Allen has been a lockstep Bush supporter, is it possible that Bush is not as toxic to Republican candidates as he appears? Or is Allen just that popular down there so that Webb's actual military experience becomes irrelevant?

Dan Balz: Lots of things work in Allen's favor in the Senate race. He's an incumbent, he was a popular former governor and Virginia is still a Republican-leaning state, despite the victories of Mark Warner and Tim Kaine in the last two gubernatorial elections. Also Jim Webb is a novice candidate. We'll see how Webb and the campaign develop over the next six weeks.

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Pittsburgh, Pa.: I continue to be amazed at how well our president looks. I am five years younger than him and up until my husband served in Iraq was frequently mistaken for a forty-something. I seem to have aged ten years overnight. Will the continued stress on our troops rise to the level of an important campaign issue or will the military families have to content themselves with shows of support that consist merely of \$3 yellow-ribbon car decals?

Dan Balz: I don't know the answer to this question but you have raised a significant issue. The stress and strain on U.S. forces and their families is a real issue out there -- even if it's not an obvious political issue.

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Dunn Loring, Va.: If the WSJ poll is right and 50 percent of all Americans believe that we really did find WMDs in Iraq and 64 percent think Saddam Hussein and al Qaida were linked what does that say about the ability of the press to inform? Or does it say more about the administration and its allies skill to misinform?

Dan Balz: I think the finding suggests that people get and digest information in all kinds of ways and that the news media are just one part of that rather elaborate system.

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Princeton, W.Va: In my opinion you have an excellent grasp of your "Bellweather" subject. Do you see any, from MY view, hope for Kellam beating Drake? That would make many old tidewater Virginians who still care about people issues very happy. Kellam is a good name to run with in the 2nd district! Tar Heel Congressman Tayor does not generate the intense dislike that Drake does. It would be great if Ford could pull off a win. He would be a credit to his state, region and the country I think and hope. Allen, who is a light weight, will probably win, partly because he is a light weight. He offends few as he does little.

Dan Balz: One of our Virginia reporters, someone like Mike Shear, has a better grasp of this race than I do. My sense now is that this is a very competitive race.

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Columbus, Neb.: Do you really believe that Republicans can keep power in the Senate once the negative campaigning from the Democrats takes hold in key Senate races? How much of an impact does Exxon's record profits have on such races?

Dan Balz: I've believed for some time that Democats will have a more difficult time winning the Senate than the House, but that's based more on an analysis of the overall political climate. Democrats have to win most everything that now appears competitive to take back the Senate. They have to win Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, Montana (and they have to defeat incumbents in those states, unless Chafee loses the GOP primary in Rhode Island). They also would have to win the open seat in Tennessee or beat Sen. Kyl in Arizona. Democrats hope the Virginia race becomes competitive. So it means a pretty clean sweep of the available seats.

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Laurel, Md.: Any thoughts on Shankar Vedantam's piece on Page A2 today?

Dan Balz: My only thought is that this research is quite intriguing. I've thought for a long time that there are many people who seek news that conforms to their political biases and, with a much more decentralized news business today, that is more possible than ever. It's a fascinating piece and we'll put up a link to it.

That's it for today. Thanks to everyone who sent in questions and, as always, I wish I had more time to answer more of them. Have a good week.

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washingtonpost.com: How the Brain Helps Partisans Admit No Gray , ( Post, July 31, 2006 )

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