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washingtonpost.com Political columnist/blogger Chris Cillizza was online Tuesday, Aug. 22, at 11 a.m. ET.

The transcript follows.

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Chris Cillizza: Good morning. Although we are deep in the dog days of August, campaign politics has barely slowed at all.

Much of the chatter here in Washington today is over President Bush's news conference yesterday and his assertion that the United States will not leave Iraq as along as he is in office.

Outside the Beltway, it looks like Gov. Frank Murkowski in Alaska is headed for a loss in today's Alaska Republican primary. If he is defeated, Murkowski will be the first governor to lose re-election this cycle.

The Connecticut Senate race continues to provide endless fodder for political junkies too.

Let's get it started.

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Crestwood, N.Y.: Hi Chris.

No matter what they say, you're every bit as handsome on this blog as you are on those cable shows.

So, did Bush hang his pro-war congressional support out to dry when he admitted that Hussein had nothing to do with 911?

Is this a nice juicy soundbite for "Democrat" candidates against GOP warhawk incumbents?

And if the GOP is going to get into name-calling -what's slanderous about 'Democrat' by the way?] I suggest, by way of retaliation, the time-honored phrase "Radical Republicans."

Chris Cillizza: Who is this mysterious "they"? Are people bad-mouthing my admittedly mediocre looks without my knowledge?

As to President Bush's acknowledgement that Sept. 11 and Iraq had nothing to do with one another, I think it's an interesting shift in rhetoric as the election nears.

The Bush Administration has repeatedly suggested (or insinuated) that Sept. 11 and Iraq were linked. The problem with that strategy is that as the public has soured on the war in Iraq it has bled over into their feelings about the war on terrorism.

While the numbers for President Bush on terrorism remain decent, they have fallen considerably over the past few years as the situation in Iraq has continued to dissolve.

Republican believe their best chance of limiting their losses this November is to make the election a referendum on which party can keep Americans safe from terrorism. To do that, Republicans need to avoid having terrorism seen entirely through the lens of Iraq.

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Poughkeepsie, N.Y.: Thanks for taking questions.

I'm interested. What is being said about Bush's insistence that we will not leave Iraq while he's in office?

Chris Cillizza: I think that some Republicans -- privately -- sighed when they heard the President assert that American troops are in Iraq to stay.

With the midterm elections less than three months away, Republicans are looking for a way to find good news and positive developments out of Iraq but there appears to be little of either at the moment.

Remember that the President and Congressional Republicans have very different agendas at the moment. Bush's eye is firmly on his legacy as president, a legacy inextricably linked to the war in Iraq. Congressional Republicans, on the other hand, are focused entirely on getting re-elected this fall, which means woooing an electorate that has made clear they do not believe the war in Iraq was worth fighting.

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Avon Park, Fla.: Do you think that news organizations should stop asking generic ballot questions in polls? I do because they're not relevant. Many of them don't ask how they will vote in their own district. Plus people tend to hate Congress as an institution but like their own representative.

Chris Cillizza: I recently wrote about the importance (or lack thereof) of the generic ballot.

While I think it is a mistake to use one party's edge in the generic ballot as the sole predictor of seat gains this fall, it -- generally -- is an effective indicator of which way the wind is blowing and how strong. (I'd like to take credit for that metaphor but it is Charlie Cook's.)

You are right that voters tend to disapprove of Congress while approving of the performance of their own Member but in the most recent Post/ABC poll, just 55 percent of those tested said their Member of Congress deserved re-election --the lowest that number has been in a decade.

Something is swirling out in the country. Whether it coalesces for Democrats at the right time remains to be seen.

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washingtonpost.com: Parsing the Polls: Is a Democratic Wave Building? (Post, Aug. 16)

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New York, N.Y.: Hi Chris,

As a Philly-born guy, and an individual who loathes Rick Santorum, I have a strong interest in the PA Senate race this year, and am deeply concerned that Santorum is "only" down 5-8 pts. right now, although I am hardly surprised. Santorum is a skilled politician and Casey Jr. is, well, not.

Some questions on specifics in the race: I am sure Santorum is ahead in the money race, but will Casey be able to match him commercial-for-commercial in the final stretch of the campaign? How have the commercial spots looked thus far?

Also, I've heard that Casey has been campaigning in Central PA while Santorum has been focusing on the Philly burbs (where PA elections are typically decided). Shouldn't Casey be there as well, or is he just relying on the strength of Ed Rendell and the radicalism of Santorum to carry the burbs by a handy-enough margin?

And finally, who do you think wins on election day?

Chris Cillizza: Lots of questions on the Pennsylvania Senate race.

There's little doubt that the race between Sen. Rick Santorum (R) and state Treasurer Bobby Casey Jr. (D) has tightened. Several polls have shown Santorum trailing Casey by six (or so) points, down from the double-digit margins earlier this year.

Still, I think Casey is in the catbird's seat. Although Santorum has made up some ground, he is still TRAILING with 80 days left before the election. That's never a good place to be.

Santorum is a fighter and will pull out every stop to try and beat Casey. (As we noted over the weekend in the Post, Republican donors to Santorum helped finance a Green Party candidate's bid to make the ballot. Democrats have challenged a number of petitions gathered by the Green candidate. A decision on whether he will make the ballot could come as late as Labor Day.)

Money, however, should be largely immaterial in the race. Both candidates will raise and spend in the tens of millions and both national parties will be heavily invested there as well. Not to mention a slew of outside groups who will fund ads, phone calls and direct mail.

This will be the nastiest Senate race in the country. But, at its root, it appears as though Pennsylvania voters are ready to fire Rick Santorum. As long as Casey can prove he is a credible alternative he should be the favorite.

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Minneapolis, Minn: Thanks for the great reporting/blogging Chris.

Two recent polls now (Rasmussen and SurveyUSA) have shown the Virginia Senate race tightening considerably after the "comment." Are you or The Post staff noticing any kind of similar movement as you travel about or talk to Virginians?

Chris Cillizza: Finishing just behind Pennsylvania in the total number of questions is the Virginia race.

This race has drawn a ton of national attention of late due to Sen. George Allen's (R) "macaca" comment (and if you don't know what I am talking about you should turn in your political junkie badge immediately).

As I have written on The Fix, I think Allen's comment does more damage to his presidential prospects than his chances at re-election since for many GOP activists not from Virginia it may have been the first time they had gotten a good look at Allen. In Virginia he is a known commodity (state legislator, Congressman, Governor and now Senator) and so the "macaca" melee is likely to have less impact on voters' views of him.

That said, I think the new polls out in this race are fundamentally accurate. (It's worth noting that I have expressed skepticism about auto-dialing technology, which Survey USA and Rasmussen both employ, before on The Fix.)

Virginia's politics are changing rapidly thanks to a huge growth spurt in Northern Virginia and exurban areas in Loudoun County. It is no longer a red state. Given Jim Webb's profile, I think his floor in this race is about 45 percent.

This has the potential to be an extremely competitive race assuming Webb is able to raise the $8-10 million he will need to stay within financial shouting distance of Allen.

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Fairfax, Va.: Why does George Allen keep explaining his macaca comment? He seems to have new macaca explanation everyday. Is this part of a strategy to keep the story going?

Chris Cillizza: No. The rule of thumb in politics is not to make a one-day story into a one-week story by continuing to talk about it.

Allen has tried to move on -- he had an event with Arizona Sen. John McCain last week -- but the media has latched onto the story and kept it alive.

Again, I don't think Allen's "macaca" comment wins or loses this election for him. Its biggest impact on the race is that it distracts him from talking about national security, cutting taxes etc, which tend to be stronger issues for Republicans.

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Silver Spring, Md.: Chris, the conventional wisdom seems to be that defeat in Pennsylvania would put an end to Rick Santorum's presidential hopes. But couldn't the opposite argument be made? He's an ambitious gung-ho politico, and could say to his conservative religious base, "my credentials have been confirmed - I was voted out in the godless Kerry-voting place I was calling home." Plus, being out of work he could devote all his time to 2008, a la Mark Warner.

Chris Cillizza: Um, no.

Under that scenario former South Dakota Sen. Tom Daschle should be considered one of the top-tier candidates in the 2008 Democratic race. He's not.

Why? Because if you are leaving office prior to running for president it has to be on a high note. Warner left with amazingly high job approval ratings AND he helped get Gov. Tim Kaine (D) elected to continue his legacy.

If Santorum loses, he will be seen as damaged goods to presidential primary caucus voters. It would be difficult for him to make the argument that he would be a strong general election candidate for the party given that he had lost one of the swing states for 2008 just two years earlier.

Santorum's presidential prospects are made of the thinnest gossamer as this point. If he somehow pulls of a victory in November, he MIGHT be able to pivot into a presidential race. But it looks very, very unlikely at the moment.

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Ontario, Calif.: Chris,

Do all the recent attacks by Democrats against Joe Lieberman - trying to keep him off the ballot, endeavoring to strip him of his party perks, etc. - run the risk of pushing him out of the party for good; an outcome which could have serious negative ramifications if the Senate ends up evenly, or almost evenly, split?

Chris Cillizza: Good question that I don't know the answer to.

Lieberman has said repeatedly that if he is elected in the fall, he will caucus with Democrats.

While I am sure he is not happy that the party leaders (Reid, Clinton, Kerry) have come out against him, he is a political pro and likely understands why it had to be done.

I don't get the sense that Lieberman's relations with his colleagues have been strained particularly by these events.

That said, Republicans have made little secret of their tacit support for Lieberman's candidacy. President Bush yesterday said he was staying out of Connecticut -- strange in that a Republican president typically endorses all but the indicted from his party.

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Fairfax, Va.: Really, now, Chris. Virginia is no longer a Red state? Who are you kidding? Yes, there's been a trend toward the Dems in populous Northern Virginia, and Virginia is known for its Democratic governors as much as for its Republican governors. But Bush handily won the state in 2004, and early Roanoke Times poll on the senate race had Allen WAY ahead, pre-Macaca-gate. Surely that race was bound to tighten, and the process has been accelerated by Allen's comment. But let's be serious: Virginia is still a Red state. If you have solid evidence to the contrary, please share it.

Chris Cillizza: Don't let it be said that Chris Cillizza ignored dissenting voices.

Let me offer two bits of evidence.

First, Kaine's victory last year proved that Warner's victory in 2001 was no fluke. Sure, Jerry Kilgore wasn't a terrific candidate and Kaine benefited greatly from Warner's strong popularity ratings but the end result was a Democratic victory.

Second, George W. Bush won Virginia by nine points over John Kerry in 2004 -- not the kind of swamping we saw in truly red states like South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming etc.

I still think Virginia tends to favor Republicans but the idea that it is a GOP stronghold from now into the foreseeable future is demonstrably incorrect.

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Dunn Loring, Va. : Does the new Zogby poll out today that shows Ford ahead of Corker in Tenn give Dem candidates six senatorial leads--a magic number?

Chris Cillizza: There is also a poll being moved by the Ford campaign that shows their candidate ahead of former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) in the Senate race.

I got a lot of guff from Democrats last week when I moved Tennessee down three slots (to #10) in my Friday Line. In that post, which I think we are linking to below, I pointed out that recent history bodes poorly for Ford's chances.

The last time Democrats won an open seat in the South was in 200 when Bill Nelson won in Florida -- considered the pseudo-South by many people anyway. Prior to Nelson's victory, Max Cleland was the last Democratic elected to an open Senate seat in the South. That was in 1996.

For Ford to win, he must transcend the weight of history. One factor working in his favor is the national political climate, which clearly favors Democrats. Another are his skills as a candidate, which are unparalleled among those running for Senate this cycle.

Can Ford win? Yes. Would I be surprised if he won? Also, yes. But, he is clearly in the game and positioned to make this race extremely competitive.

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washingtonpost.com: The Friday Line: U.S. Senate (Post, Aug. 18)

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Los Angeles, Calif.: Hey good lookin are there any surprises brewing in the U.S. Senate races out there?

Chris Cillizza: Um, hey.

Surprises in the Senate are a rare commodity. These races draw SO much attention and money, it's much harder for one of them to come out of nowhere at the last minute.

That said, the race with the biggest potential surprise factor looks like Michigan at the moment. In 2000, Sen. Debbie Stabenow looked dead in the water just a month before the election but came roaring back to win the race 49 percent to 48 percent over Spence Abraham.

Republicans are VERY keen about their candidate this time around -- Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard. And, the dismal state of the economy in Michigan may well counteract some of the negative national atmospherics for Republicans -- giving them a chance to be competitive here.

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Chris Cillizza: That's all folks. I'm off to northern Kentucky tomorrow to take a look at the race in the 4th district between Rep. Geoff Davis (R) and former Rep. Ken Lucas (D).

Enjoy the rest of your week and remember: Visit The Fix early and often.

Chris

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