Post Politics Hour

washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion

Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

Washington Post National Political reporter Dan Balz was online Monday, Aug. 28, at 11 a.m. ET .

Political analysis from Post reporters and interviews with top newsmakers. Listen live on Washington Post Radio or subscribe to a podcast of the show.

The transcript follows.

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Dan Balz: Good morning to everyone. Sorry for the delay in starting -- technical glitches. I'm just back from 10 days away and still catching up. As I go through the questions already in the pipeline, I'd urge those of you out there to send in your recommendations for the three most notable political events of the past two weeks. Off we go.

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Washington, DC: Thanks for doing these chats! It seems like every pundit on TV yesterday was predicting the downfall of the GOP in the upcoming elections. Do you think the Republican party is in a ton of trouble or will they keep the House? Also, what race, other than Pennsylvania, is going to be the most dangerous for the Republicans to lose?

Dan Balz: I agree that this shapes up as a bad year for the Republicans and clearly the House is in jeopardy and maybe the Senate too. The president's approval ratings bounced up above 40 percent in several polls last week, but he is still low by historical standards.

Beyond Pennsylvania, Republicans Senate incumbents are in trouble in Rhode Island, Ohio, Montana and Missouri.

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Roseland NJ: Good morning Dan. Thanks for being with us this morning.

On reading the WP's article on McCain positioning himself as Bush's natural successor, it struck me that if frustration with and opposition to the war in Iraq continues to increase through and into 2008, the "stay the course" position might become so politically toxic that even GOP primary voters might think twice about it. It seems there's only one candidate even remotely positioned to benefit from this, and that's Chuck Hagel.

Is the potential of a Hagel candidacy being underestimated? If things don't improve, isn't it inevitable that 2008 will bring at least one other major Republican running on a "we need a troop withdrawal timetable" platform?

Dan Balz: I thought it was interesting that when Sen. McCain was in Ohio recently, he spoke out critically about the administration's misplaced optimism over the past several years. He has been a strong supporter of the war, but like many politicians, he wants people to believe he has been critical of the administration's policy at various turns. Sen. McCain often pressed for more troops, something which in retrospect might have helped prevent the insurgency from taking root.

Sen. Hagel is positioned to be the war critic in a Republican presidential race, but we'll have to see whether there is real sentiment within the GOP for that kind of nominee.

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Stamford Conn: Is there any chance that Sen. Lieberman, if he wins reelection, will be so angry with the Democratic party that he will take a job in the Bush Administration (say Sec of Defense, or Ambassador to Israel) and let Gov. Rell appoint a Republican to his then vacated Senate seat (say Chris Shays)?

Dan Balz: Interesting notion. I would have thought he would be a more likely candidate for a cabinet post if he loses to Ned Lamont in November. We'll have to see how estranged he is by the end of the campaign.

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Mt. Lebanon, Pa: Significant political event.

Frank Murkowski finishes 3rd in 3 horse primary derby. No garlands for this nag.

Could it spell neighhh to incumbents in the run in November?

Challengers to Win, Place, and Show.

Thanks much. Alaskan ex-pat

Dan Balz: Gov. Murkowski's third-place finish was stunning, wasn't it? I was up in Alaska and watched the three candidates debate on television a few days before the primary. Certainly it proves there is no great love for incumbents, but I think Murkowski's problems were deeper than many.

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Chicago, Ill: Most notable political events of the last two weeks:

1. George Allen's macaca caca.

2. Lieberman's decision to run as an independent and the tightening of that race.

3. The one year anniversary of Katrina (and the release of Spike Lee's devastating documentary).

Dan Balz: Thanks for posting.

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Vancouver, Wash: A poll just released by the WSJ/Zogby Interactive has Webb slightly ahead of Allen (but within the MOE). If accurate, this would be a sea change in Virginia. What's your take on this development.

Dan Balz: I want to see more polls.

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Washington, DC: Interesting article on the South Dakota abortion initiative. If the anti-abortionites were to lose that one, wouldn't it be a huge setback, given SD is very much a red state?

Dan Balz: I'd put it the other way. Passage would be a significant victory for anti-abortion forces. I say that because this is a very extreme abortion ban. Public opinion nationally has shown for a long time that Americans favor abortion rights with some restrictions, but generally oppose the kind of blanket ban on abortions embodied in the South Dakota measure. Passage would set up a major test in the courts.

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New York, NY: Three most important political stories of the last few weeks:

1. Iraq

2. Iraq

3. Iraq

Dan Balz: Thanks for posting.

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Albuquerque, NM: Why do we have to listen to political ads that are just cat fights? In NM we have Congressperson, Heather Wilson, and AG, Patricia Madrid, just bitterly attacking each other. I have called both persons' campaign headquarters and got very little response. I have emailed Heather, also no response. I have gotten to the point where I mute all TV ads. Why don't the candidates tell us what they will do to help us?

Dan Balz: Candidates run these negative ads because they often are effective. I know many voters hate them, but if they didn't work, candidates would not use them.

There's an interesting book by John Geer, a Vanderbilt University political scientist, called "In Defense of Negativity," in which he argues that negative ads actually provide more useful information to voters than to positive ads.

That said, your point is shared by many Americans.

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Fairfax, Va: Dan, Did you hear about the macaca story?

Dan Balz: Yes. My point about the WSJ poll is that interactive polls are not always accurate. Certainly Allen has been damaged by the macaca story, but I don't know whether the race is essentially tied.

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Washington, D.C./Seattle: Dan -

I've lived inside and outside the beltway for the past five years and although I'd love to see the Democrats retake the House, it seems that regular people outside of D.C. just don't seem to care. They don't like the R's but they have no reason to replace them with D's. Political pundits are like Redskins fans - just like the Skins and the Super Bowl, every year inside-the-beltway swamis hype up the Democrats chances and talk about some national "wave." And every year there is disappointment. You heard it here first: Democrats take at most 5 seats in the House. Thoughts?

Dan Balz: If you're right, Rep. Rahm Emanuel will be a very disappointed politician. But I'll remember your prediction come November.

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Santa Fe NM: Dan, Inside the beltway;

1. Macaca

2. Macaca

3. Macaca

Outside the beltway

1. Iraq

2. Lebanon

3. Iran

Dan Balz: Thanks for posting.

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Los Angeles, Calif: Fickly Polls

With different polls appearing contradictory on who's/what's up, down or sideways, it's a good time to recognize polls' inherent fallacies. Political poll results reported as news reflecting what voters would do "if the election were held today" are uncertain and risky. First, elections are not "held today," calling into question the polls' predictive value. Perhaps some results should be carried in the comics.

Second, poll results often represent opinions of a few hundred available people. Poll design, wording and order of questions, respondents' veracity (we never had California Governor Tom Bradley even though polls the day before the election predicted his win) and adjustments made to give "proper" weight to the data affect results.

Third, polls come with the preverbal "margin of error," an effort to add legitimacy or provide cover if predictions "go south." Most poll error margins are stated in the 3-6% range, with pollsters saying the results fall within or outside the "margin of error." Principals of statistical inference reveal prerequisites often don't exist for computing reliable error margins in political polls. Pollsters will likely equivocate greatly if required to publish their error margin computations with poll results. Margin of error is a specific statistical concept with requirements that usually do not fit the realm of telephone political polling.

Dan Balz: Certainly polls are snapshots in time and are not predictive. But they are useful in measuring changes in public opinion over time and helpful in understanding the political climate. Polls have some limitations but they are more accurate than you suggest. We do publish the margin of error with all our polls.

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Washington, DC: Just to push back on your comment about the South Dakota blanket abortion ban, I think it would be a big deal politically if the ban were defeated because the GOP has been arguing for decades now that abortion rights were created by activist liberal judges and to see red state voters preserving abortion rights -- however minor -- would challenge that claim.

Dan Balz: The outcome will be a big deal no matter which way it goes. I agree with that. But it's never been clear that a virtual ban on all abortions enjoys public support even in conservative red states.

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New York, NY: Three most notable political events of the past three weeks:

1. Foiling of the terror plot in UK. It will have resonance.

2. Media focus on Katrina one year later.

3. Mis-speaks of various candidates.

Dan Balz: Thanks for posting.

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Baku, Azerbaijan: Could Rep. Harris' religious zeal be responsible for her actions in 2000? In other words, since Al Gore had been VP under Bill Clinton, poor Mr. Gore wasn't "godly" enough to lead the nation and, at that time, the most respected country in the world.

As Mel Brooks once commented, "It's good to be king," or, in her case, queen.

Dan Balz: I can't read her mind so I can't say what role her religious beliefs played in her decisions in 2000. She said religion influences what she does, so presumably there was something of that involved.

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La Jolla, Calif: Dan - I've been following the political chats here. I've been amazed at the amount of anger directed at the moderators. Is this amount of anger at the press - from the left and right - typical, or does it surprise you too?

Dan Balz: You noticed. There's a lot of anger out there and we feel it with considerable frequency. Perhaps we're just hearing more from people who are angry and not from others.

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Phoenix, Ariz: Three most important news stories of the past two weeks:

1. Republican Chairman Ken Mehlman flip-flopping from "stay the course" to "adapt-and-win" -- apparently without telling the current administration.

2. Dick Cheney's statement that Lamont's victory might encourage "the al-Qaida types." I don't recall either Cheney or Tony Snow being asked to explain how democracy encourages al-Qaida.

3. The President returning to New Orleans on the one-year anniversary of Katrina. Photo ops then. Photo ops now. Not much to show in-between.

Dan Balz: Thanks for posting.

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Greenville, SC: Dan - Do you see any reason to take a leave of absence from the WaPost from Labor Day 'til after the elections? Or, do you think you can continue to be the chief spokesman for the DNC, Ned Lamont's campaign manager in CT, and the objective, even-handed writer we've all known you to be? What a trifecta.

Dan Balz: Thanks for your encouragement.

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Phoenix, Ariz: Joe Biden is the Democrats' go-to guy when it comes to foreign policy, but I have not seen or read much about him and the war in Iraq. What strategy is he advocating? Has his relative silence been intentional, to let the Republicans soak up as much war in Iraq negativity as possible?

Dan Balz: Sen. Biden has been very outspoken about Iraq, and often very critical of the administration while being supportive of the mission. He has recommended a variety of changes over many months. I'd refer you to his web site, where I believe some of his speeches can be found.

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Avon Park, Fla: Is it common for Senators who are sho-ins for reelection to give campaign money to other candidates in closer races? Look at Hillary Clinton. She has $22 million in the bank. Wouldn't it help her in the primaries if she gave some of that money to other Congressional candidates or the party committees?

Dan Balz: It might help her to give some of that money away, but it might help even more to transfer everything to her presidential campaign, if she decides to run.

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Maccaca from Md: Just catching up after a few weeks away from the computers. I am a first generation immigrant from India and expect some discrimination based on my looks and accent. What outraged me about Senator Allen's remarks was his assumption that the boy was an immigrant based on his looks. How can a US Senator be so ignorant that he makes public remarks like that. Am I off base here?

Dan Balz: That is one of several reasons why the episode has been so damaging to Sen. Allen.

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New Orleans, La.: Two Questions:

Dan, in your opinion, what role does Katrina and the immediate response play into GOP re-election chances for the House and Senate? In other words, are Congressmen and Senators receiving blame as Bush has for the Federal Response.

Also, how dangerous is the immigration issue to McCain's chances of the GOP nomination. Is this the only major issue that could undermine the typical Republican primary attitude that it is "McCain's turn."

Dan Balz: The administration's response to Katrina was a major setback for the president, and therefore has an effect on all Republicans this fall. Not because individual members of Congress are getting the blame but because midterm elections generally are a referendum on the party that holds the White House.

Re McCain. He will have problems with many conservative Republicans over his immigration position. His strength is the belief among many Republicans that he may be the most electable Republican in 2008. We'll see how Republican voters feel about those issues come the winter and spring of 2008.

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Dan Balz: Thanks to everyone for participating today. Sorry I couldn't get to all the questions. Have a good week.

Dan Balz

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