Post Politics Hour

Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

Washington Post national political reporter Jim VandeHei was online Friday, Oct. 6, at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest political news and The Post's coverage of politics.

Political analysis from Post reporters and interviews with top newsmakers. Listen live on Washington Post Radio or subscribe to a podcast of the show.

The transcript follows.

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Jim VandeHei: Good morning. In addition to questions, I would love some thoughts from those of you in real America about how the Foley scandal is playing outside the beltway. has it obscured the fact this is shaping up as the deadliest month of the Iraq war for U.S. troops?

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South Orange, N.J.: When the members of the House Ethics Panel say their investigation into Speaker Hastert's handling of prior incidents involving former Congressman Foley will take "weeks not months" does that mean their investigation will be complete before election day? Is this just more partisan political speak suggesting that both parties will triangulate the polls and and take the course of the greatest political expediency?

Jim VandeHei: The committee is under a lot of pressure to complete its investigation before the election to avoid the appearance of a coverup. That wont be easy. It is important to remember that House ethics committee is one of the least effective panels in Congress, often deadlocks and rarely punishes members with any severity. It has largely sat on the sidelines as all of these scandals have unfolded over the past few years. Heck, it took them months to agree on who should be on staff. It is considered the worst job in congress. who wants to punish friends and colleagues? with that said, the committee is under a lot of pressure to get it right this time. that could include finding other members who have acted inappropriately with pages. check back with me in a month.

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Los Angeles, Calif.: Iraq remains a major concern. My question is, will Democrats really benefit as the Foley scandal paints all Members of Congress with the same brush? Also, will voters turn Democrats as the party of choice or the default alternative?

Jim VandeHei: Thanks LA. You voiced a question echoed by several others. The answer could determine the outcome of the election. This is what I am hearing from GOP members in tough races (I have talked with a half dozen). It is not as dominating of an issue as they first feared, but voters are certainly paying attention to it. They worry if another shoe drops, so will their poll numbers. The races are local and shaped by local personalities but close races can be tipped by atmospherics. The scandal is toxic, like the brown cloud over Tokyo on a hot day. it will likely convince at least a few social conservatives to sit this election out and may flip some swing voters. every vote counts. so this is a big deal. if it turns out GOP leaders could have and should have done more -- and that is the predominant perception in the country -- many GOP strategist think it will be the death knell for the Republican majorities. This is a long way of saying I have no clue until all the facts are in.

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London, UK: Straight up - do you think Hastert is being used as a scapegoat and as a tool for the GOP to show that they are taking some responsibility?

As for your 'real America' question. I obviously can't answer that being international at the moment, but for an intl. perspective I will say that this thing is getting very little play in the MSM. The focus here is all Iraq, Iraq, Iraq.

Jim VandeHei: look at our global audience. I don't think Hastert is being used as scapegoat, straight up. but if it turns out he or his staff knew more than they are saying, he will be the sacrificial lamb.

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Reston, Va.: While trying to blame the Democrats for promoting the scandal (even though it was leaked by Republican staff members), do you think the Republicans are taking a great risk at losing any independent voters as it would seem that they are attempting to displace their responsibility for the problem?

Jim VandeHei: A lot of Republicans think this blame-the-Dems strategy looks silly because it is conservatives who are calling for Hastert's scalp. It is not clear Democrats shopped this story. I think people want to know why kids were not protected and what steps will be taken to make sure they are, so this strategy seems like an odd distraction. it might fire up the base -- that is why this is strategy every politician under fire dusts off when times are tough -- but it might backfire, too.

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Burlington, Vt.: You asked whether "real" America is registering how bad things are going in Iraq despite the saturation coverage of Foley. You'll get lots of opinions, but do you think anybody who is enough of a news junkie to get involved in these discussions is going to be truly representative of "real" America?

Jim VandeHei: good point, Burlington.

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Cumberland, Md.: There was a poll out in today's paper asking people if they thought Foley-gate made them more or less likely to want GOP control of congress next year. A large number said less likely but 2% said the scandal makes them more likely to want a GOP majority. Who in the world could these 2% be? I can understand diehard conservatives or Republicans closing their eyes to the mess and still supporting the GOP but who is his right mind would actually be more likely to want a GOP majority after Foley-Gate broke than before?

Jim VandeHei: that goes to show there is a loyal base that will never bolt.

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Superior, Wis.:

Good morning, sir. Although Hastert has backed off blaming Democrats after the article in the Hill appeared, it still does make one wonder.

Before, if I gave Hastert the benefit of the doubt and let's say this was released to embarrass the Republicans by Democrats, does that make what Foley did any less wrong? Hastert seems to be more interested in covering his own you-know-what than the safety of the young pages, and that is what is really troubling. But Republicans are not the only selfish ones here. While they look for excuses, the Democrats are looking for exploitation. Each party seems to be acting out of its own self-interest rather than being concerned about the young pages. I think this incident is going to spell doom for incumbents of BOTH parties, regardless of which party knew what.

Thank you for listening.

Jim VandeHei: a fellow Wisconsinite. that is the easiest way to get your questions answered in my chats. I must first lament the sorry state of our packers. I made it to opening day only to watch the bears bootstomp us. Monday night brought tears to my eyes. we need playmakers, who step up when times are tough. this is my detour to your question. one of the sorriest things about the state of the modern congress that rarely do members come together, put their agendas aside, forget politics, and just do the right thing. that is what is needed now. this is not the first page scandal and it probably wont be the last. but obviously these kids need to be better protected from the Foleys of the world. I think after the election that might happen. but most members seem to care more about politics no matter what the issue is. relations between the two parties seem to worsen by the year and the number of dealmaking independents is shrinking. as long as we have narrowly divided government that is likely to continue.

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Washington, D.C.: RE: "Real America." AARGH! Jim, I know you were using shorthand, but I beg of you, PLEASE refrain from fueling the myth that those of us who happen to live in D.C. and its suburbs are somehow not "real Americans." I am sick unto death of blowhard politicians denouncing Washington even as they do everything they can to get elected and entrenched here. Please don't make their job any easier! Thanks.

Jim VandeHei: it is shorthand. but I am certain we do live in a bubble here and often have no clue what voters actually care about. we think every big scandal, every big disagreement is moving voters when most are not paying attention. they have other things to worry about. I relearned this lesson during a recent tour of nine congressional districts in the Ohio river valley. I love DC, but let's be honest about our faults.

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Washington, D.C.: Hi there-

Regarding the Foley vs. Iraq question. I'm not in middle America, but can I still chime in? I am a news junkie and have closely followed both stories. I have been able to keep track of the Iraq situation as well as all the drama associated with Foley. In fact, my question is about Sen. Warner's comments upon his return from Iraq. He paints a grim picture, as other returning senators have in the past. And says things are on the brink of total chaos, slipping out of control, etc. But then, just like every other congressperson he says "let's give it a few more months." Why do they keep doing this? I mean, if things are so bad, I just can't understand why someone does not say, let's change this situation RIGHT NOW.

Jim VandeHei: posting some reader thoughts

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The Hill: Right now, do Dems take House, Senate, both or neither? Can you name 5 GOP incumbent House seats (not open ones) most likely to flip?

Jim VandeHei: I have no clue. I have a hard enough time predicting football games to stay alive in my survivor pool. I will say that if I were an incumbent with the last name Hostettler, Burns, Santorum, Taylor, Sodrel, I would be very nervous. I still the think flipping the senate will be very hard for Democrats, despite some troubling polling for GOP incumbents. I also have been skeptical of the conventional wisdom that Ds will definitely win the House, but the Foley affair could change my mind if new facts emerge.

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St. Louis, Mo.: How involved do you think that New York Congressman, Tom Reynolds, is in this Foley affair?

Jim VandeHei: If there is one person hurt politically by this Foley scandal is no doubt Reynolds. He has a very tough race on his hands how, one that is likely to shift his attention away from saving GOP colleagues to saving himself. I have watched his local coverage in local papers, and it has not been pretty. Dems claim they have a new poll showing Reynolds behind now, but GOPers tell me it has tightened and he still has a lead. again, any new information about his role or his staff's role would be bad, bad news for chairman Reynolds.

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Minneapolis, Minn.: The Foley scandal is a major issue in our Senate race. Patty Wetterling picked up on it, and, as a parent who lost her son to kidnapping, she is playing it for all it is worth in her latest TV ad. It remains to be seen whether the strategy works, but it has brought her up in the polls.

Jim VandeHei: more comment

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Washington, D.C.: Ok, you had me at first, but then: "but let's be honest about our faults."

I totally agree that we are in a bubble, and that we are politics-obsessed here in D.C. much more so than the rest of the country. However, I do not consider that a fault. In fact, I consider it a relief to know that people are reading and talking and analyzing rather than just ingesting whatever their local leader tells them. So bubble yes-majority of America is not like "us", yes. But please let's not lay blame or associate fault on us for being political/obsessed!

Jim VandeHei: more comment

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Pittsburgh, Pa.: In response to your question, the Foley situation was big news here in the 'burgh - all of the local newscasts talked about it. Maybe because any GOP problems could affect the senate race here, which, as you know, is getting pretty contentious. It definitely usurped coverage of the horrible escalation of violence in Iraq, although I noticed this as well on CNN, MSNBC, etc. In terms of the Iraq war, I get my national news primarily from watching CNN, and they have been devoting time to it. In addition, they also seem to be the only ones devoting a lot of time to the situation in Darfur (Anderson Cooper has been reporting from the region all week).

Jim VandeHei: more comment

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Reston, Va.: Any chance we'll ever find out who the Republican staffers are who leaked this story? Frankly, I think they did the nation a great service and deserve our thanks.

Jim VandeHei: certainly a chance

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Washington, D.C.: Jim:

I just posted the question about what the Democratic strategy should be and then I saw your response to the fellow Wisconsinite. Just wanted to let you know that we Badgers are here living in D.C. too. I'm a Milwaukee native and I'm off this afternoon to Wisconsin to attend the UW-Northwestern game tomorrow. Just had to share with a fellow Wisconsinite.

Jim VandeHei: love my people

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Annandale, Va.: Jim, is your shift key broken, or are you just channeling EE Cummings? For gosh sakes, as a political reporter, are you allowed to eschew all use of -capital- letters?

Jim VandeHei: this is common complaint. I write fast and ignore the shift key and many others to answer as many questions as I can. sorry if that bothers you

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Washington, D.C.: Hi Jim,

Thanks for being with us today. I have a question about some analysis of the Foley scandal. There seems to be some question of whether a "cover up" is involved. On NPR I heard someone opine, "of course the Republicans have not admitted to a cover up." Ignatius in his article op-ed states there was one ("...covering up the egregious conduct of Rep. Mark Foley"). Then there is Howard Kurtz, who in his Ad Watch today asserts Wetterling's ad "seriously overstates what is known about the actions of House Republican leaders." The ad states "Congressional leaders have admitted covering up the predatory behavior of a congressman..."

It seems to me approaching Foley in private, in particular not alerting the Democratic member of the Page Board, supports the "cover up" statement. Conflicting accounts aside, this event is agreed to by all involved. Do you think that event can legitimately be called a "cover up" or not?

Thanks for the help.

Jim VandeHei: No. Based on the facts we know, I think it is unfair to call it a coverup. that is a harsh charge that includes lawmakers knowingly concealing the fact that a congressman was preying on young boys. it does appear several members and aides ignored major warning signs that in retrospect should have been followed up. of course, new facts could emerge.

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Farmington Hills, Mich.: I am a liberal but am also the mother of two boys. I have to say I am a little squeamish about all the political posturing by Republicans and Democrats around the Foley scandal. This might be a crime against children and coupled with the school shootings it makes me feel like our kids are so susceptible to so many things beyond international terrorism. I wish both parties could provide better leadership.

Jim VandeHei: thanks for the comment

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Re: Minn: What your chatter failed to point out about candidate Patty Wetterling is that she rushed to air a commercial claiming that the Republican leadership has admitted to covering up for a child molester. This claim is false and makes one wonder why she needed to stretch the truth when the House leadership is busy shooting itself in the foot!

Jim VandeHei: more on minn

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Austin, Tex.: My thoughts on Iraq - if things are going so peachy keen, why did Condi Rice's plane have to circle for an hour yesterday amongst mortar fire and why did the lights go out during her meeting?

I'm just saying....

Jim VandeHei: more comment

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Rolla, Mo.: From middle America, the Iraq War is the elephant in the room, US troop casualties are disproportionately felt here, but the rah-rah spirit of 2003 is long gone. I can tell you that the magnetic ribbons are not being replaced on the bumpers, no local politicians bring up the war, and something like the Foley scandal hits social conservatives where it counts.

Jim VandeHei: more

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New York, N.Y.: Assuming the Democrats are able to take control of the House, do you think we will see any truly radical shift in D.C. politics on the really important issues: immigration, the strategy in Iraq, conduct of war, education, healthcare. Seems to me that the Democrats don't have much to offer either (I am not a Republican btw)

Jim VandeHei: Yes. Democrats will control the agenda and subpoena power. I think there will be more oversight investigations of the war in three months than we have seen in three years. there could be a serious push to end the war -- the is unclear right now -- and efforts to pull back bush tax cuts for those making 200K or more. immigration debate would probably include path to citizenship, and social issues would take a back seat. do not underestimate the huge differences between Pelosi and Hastert. these are the two poles of politics today. that is why votes matter.

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Arlington, Va.: Re: Austin, TX:

I believe the strategy in Iraq is working effectively only when we reach the point where our leaders no longer need to schedule "surprise visits" to the country. If the country were stable, if the President's plan were working, there would be no need to stage these under-the-radar media opportunities, because there wouldn't be the danger and instability that clearly exists now. Until then, the President isn't getting the job done.

As for Rolla, Mo., I think some independent voters, people who love America and are concerned about security issues, have realized that a yellow ribbon won't make up for a vote for Bush and his Iraq War in 2004. They're replacing those yellow ribbons with real anger towards the Administration's inflexibility (a fatal flaw that any military strategist would acknowledge will lead to failure in long-term combat).

Jim VandeHei: more

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Balboa Island, Calif.: Jim -- every year there seems to be an incredibly high number of "undecided" voters, almost up the very second they enter the polling booth. With issues like the Iraq war, corruption, Foleygate, economic concerns, etc. now on the table, do you think that most potential voters have already made up their minds by now?

Jim VandeHei: I think most people who will vote have made up their minds, but remember a lot of seats could come down to a few hundred votes. if even a few minds are changed, that is a big deal.

must run. thanks. have a good day

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