Dan Balz
Washington Post Chief Political Reporter
Monday, October 9, 2006; 11:00 AM
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Washington Post chief political reporter Dan Balz was online Monday, Oct. 9, at 11 a.m. ET .
The transcript follows.
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Dan Balz: Good morning to everyone. Four weeks out from the elections and things moving on almost every front. President Bush just finished making a statement in response to North Korea's claim of a nuclear test. The Foley scandal continues to simmer. Even top Republicans are speaking out about the deteriorating situation in Iraq. Republicans are nervous. We'll go right to your questions.
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Vancouver, Wash.: Mr. Balz,
In your judgment, what effect will the North Korean nuclear test have on the mid term elections?
And does the Foley scandal in some strange way, help the GOP by taking the central issue - the fiasco in Iraq - off the front burner of the election?
Thanks.
Dan Balz: North Korea's nuclear test will rattle many people and likely will be a factor in the way people think about this election. People may argue that it could actually help Republicans by throwing more attention on terrorist threats and the assumption that terrorism remains the best issue for President Bush and the Republicans. I would be wary of that interpretation and would monitor this.
I don't think the Foley scandal diverts that much attention from Iraq. Certainly it has soaked up a lot of media air time and ink but Iraq remains the constant big issue affecting how people see the state of the country and, I suspect, what they think about this election.
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Rolla, Mo.: Opinion polls show significant advantages right now for Democrats going into the midterms. Assuming that holds, and Republicans still hold majorities (albeit slimmer) in both houses due to the limited number of districts in play (gerrymandering, financial edge, etc.), what will be the national mood on November 8? If there is a strong national will for change that is not realized in the election process, will the electorate become more disillusioned and inclined to participate in the political process?
Dan Balz: It's far too early to predict what the national mood will be the day after the election. I would say, however, that the chances of Republicans holding onto their House majority is clearly lower today than it was a few weeks ago. If the Republicans hold onto their majority, it will be by only a few seats. Bigger losses are clearly possible at this point. Let's see what happens over the next month, but the House and increasingly the Senate are at risk.
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Grapevine, Tex.: Although it is commendable that there is a bi-partisan panel being led by James Baker to come up with a new Iraq policy, isn't this yet another case where George H.W. Bush's friends are being sent into rescue George W. Bush from another failure in his life? (e.g. failed oil companies and getting him out of the National Guard before he was kicked out).
Dan Balz: That's an interesting notion. I don't know whether they've been "sent in" to help figure out Iraq policy but it does appear as if the GOP foreign policy establishment types, rather than the neocons who were the architects of the original policy, are exerting themselves. Sen. John Warner's comments last week -- gloomy, gloomy comments -- about Iraq and the possibility that a significant course correction may be needed soon were the most significant example of this. Former Secretary of State Baker offers the current president the way to bring about that change and it seemed clear from what Baker said yesterday that he is in close touch with the president about all this.
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Washington D.C.: The Foley issue has obviously had a huge effect on two seats -- Foley's, which seems certain to change hands; and Reynolds', which may be likely to change hands. What other specific seats might be affected? Is there a chance that this could endanger Shimkus, or Hastert, others? I understand Kolbe was retiring anyway, but what does that race look like and could this issue reverberate?
Dan Balz: I think that any district where a House member has been touched by scandal is now in greater jeopardy that it was before the Foley story broke. That means Texas 22 (Tom DeLay's seat); Ohio 18 (Bob Ney's seat); Pennsylvania 10 (Don Sherwood's seat); and certainly Florida 16 (the Foley seat). In addition, Republican prospects in open seats are deteriorating. They are likely to lose Arizona 8 and Colorado 7; Iowa 1 is a tossup at best; Wisconsin 8 is a tossup, according to Cook Report and the Rothenberg Report. Minnesota 6 is also a tossup.
So the fallout is putting the Republicans in deep trouble. But I would add that Iraq as much as Foley is probably responsible for the GOP's problems right now -- that and dissatisfaction with the performance of the 109th Congress.
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Bethesda, Md.: If the President decides that a change in course is needed for Iraq after the election and it includes drawing down and repositioning troops then isn't that the same as what some Democrats are calling for now? I predict that might happen, after the election.
Dan Balz: Thanks for posting. We'll see.
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Madison, Wis.: Dan: So far it appears that most Democratic candidates (as well as the Democratic campaign apparatus) have not been especially aggressive about attempting to use the Foley scandal to catalyze public discontent with Congress. They're running against Bush, but not against Washington.
Do you agree with this? Are Democrats so used to defending their own incumbents that they will let opportunities to attack GOP incumbents for cronyism and corruption go by?
Dan Balz: We're beginning to see campaigns use the Foley scandal as well as anti-Washington sentiment. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee put up a new ad in Iowa 1 over the weekend essentially saying it's time for a change in Washington that features (briefly!) an image of Speaker Hastert. Democrat Baron Hill, who is running in Indiana 9, put on an ad that is even more explicit about Foley and what is described as the "cesspool" in Washington. My assumption is there will be more of this coming from the Democrats.
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Arlington, Va.: Every other newspaper in Virginia, and pretty much the country, is covering George Allen's failure to disclose stock options. But NOT The Washington Post. Why not? It's big enough news for the AP, the New York Times, the Richmond Times-Dispatch, and everyone else, but not for The Washington Post?
Dan Balz: Thanks. We're on the case. I hope you're not suggesting that we haven't been aggressive in covering the Virginia Senate race. Sen. Allen's supporters and campaign believe we've been overly aggressive.
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Washington, D.C.: How much of an impact will Sen Warner's remarks about Iraq have on the election and the administration?
Dan Balz: It will have an impact on the administration and possibly the election as well.
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New York, N.Y.: So Bush labels his "axis of evil" trio, invades one of them and has that country in such a state of disaster that even Warner and Baker are starting to see there's something wrong. Are we finally going to see Republicans opening their eyes to the utter chaos in Iraq so we can finally start to do something about it?
Dan Balz: Posted without comment.
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Amherst, N.H.: New Hampshire District 2 moved up from #33 to #29 on the latest 2006 House Race Rankings from National Journal Group.
NOW will you add it to The Post's interactive Map? And maybe add a sentence or two about Charlie Bass' challenger, Paul Hodes?
Dan Balz: We'll check it out. There apparently has been some movement there but whether it should be at #29 is another question. Our Bellwether Project includes a list of interesting races but it is not intended to be a comprehensive or exhaustive list. We are monitoring everything, however.
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Frostburg, Md.: What do you know about the individual polls? I see that Gallup released a bunch of Senate and governorship results on Friday and races (RI senate, Md. governor) now look like easy Democratic wins, according to Gallup. Why such a jump for Democrats? Or has the scene really changed that much?
Dan Balz: We are drowning in polls these days, some good, some not so good. We try to look at everything and make our own assessments. Both Maryland and Rhode Island are very Democratic states. Gov. Ehrlich has been in trouble for a long time because of the state's tilt. Sen. Chafee has the same problem. Most recent polls show him trailing but by different margins.
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Washington, D.C.: Have you had an indication that the GOP (RNC, RSCC) is pulling resources out of PA and/or MT? It seems like those are veering from likely Dem to solid Dem. If the polls numbers don't move toward Burns or Santorum will the GOP throw in the towel in order to focus on MO, TN, VA, etc?
Dan Balz: The RNC has been spending its advertising dollars almost exclusively in Ohio, Missouri and Tennessee for some weeks. They're gloomy about the prospects for Santorum and Burns.
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Chantilly, Va.: Mr. Balz-
I find the polls interesting but I wonder how meaningful they are. Turnout is always dismal in mid-terms. Turn out models in major elections have been highly flawed in recent elections and we've got a lot less to work with in any mid-term.
My own opinion is that the motivation of conservatives has been understated (we grumble but we vote!) and specifically the dissatisfaction of the Religious Right has been overstated in that they hold Foley responsible and not the GOP. The bottom line is that the center-left coalition understands how important congressional control is and we will be there. The left is motivated but has been for a long time. There's just more of us then them!
In any case, any thoughts on the turn out assumptions in today's conventional wisdom?
Dan Balz: I agree with you that projecting who will vote in a midterm election is very difficult. I'll give you an example from now-ancient history. In 1982, Texas Gov. Bill Clements appeared to be cruising toward reelection and his campaign believed he had a double-digit lead heading into the final weekend. He ended up losing because of a huge Democratic turnout that year.
That said, there are indications that Christian conservatives are more upset over the Foley scandal than many other Republicans. It's not clear that their dissatisfaction is limited to Foley himself or whether it will depress turnout. I know Republican leaders worry about this, although they worry even more about the impact of all this on independents. They fear independents, who often stay at home for midterm elections, may come out this year and vote for Democratic candidates.
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Oxford Town, Miss.: Just so Arlington knows, The Post did run the AP story about Allen's stock issues. And the article that ran in the Times was the same AP story. So it's a little misleading to say that The Post isn't following the story and the Times is.
Dan Balz: Thanks. That's correct. But we're not limiting our reporting to the AP story.
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Minot, N.D.: Polls, Polls Polls. Is that all you care about? How about policy?
Dan Balz: Policy affects the polls, which is why you see Republicans on the defensive. Iraq policy is a huge factor in this election, as we've said many times in these chats. Other policies also are factors. But it is the time of the year when political junkies watch the polls. The results in November are likely to have a significant effect on the policy debate during the president's final two years in office.
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Des Moines, Iowa: Do you really think the bad behavior of some bozo in Florida is going to pollute the entire nation regarding the Republican party? I know if many voters across the nation who might some other member of Congress is a crook, or a jerk, or is corrupt, but when you ask them about their own, they support them. The power of incumbency will be decided district by district not by some generic poll. Or do you think that viewpoint is not true now?
Dan Balz: These races are a combination of national environment and local factors, including the quality of individual candidates. Republicans continue to try to tilt these contests away from the national environment toward the character of the candidates and what the incumbent has done for his or her district. Sometimes the national environment simply overwhelms that strategy, which Democrats believe could happen this year.
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Logansport, Ind: Good morning Dan and thanks for taking my question. Should the Dems not win either side of Congress, but still win seats, what does this say about the Democratic party and their message or lack thereof?
Dan Balz: They will be demoralized and there will be a lot of turmoil inside the Democratic Party if that happens. Some of them believe this is a golden opportunity for them. If they don't win the House or Senate, you'll see an even more intense debate among Democrats about what to do.
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Los Angeles, Calif.: Is there still a realistic chance that Hastert will be eventually forced to resign as a result of the Foley scandal, or has that now been ruled out as an option?
Dan Balz: It looks now as if he will hold on until the election, barring dramatic new developments. He's not much of an asset to candidates at this point, but there seems to be a belief among Republicans that forcing him out a month before the election would cause them even more problems. The question is what happens after the election. He may have trouble holding on and many expect that, if Republicans lose the House he will not stand for reelection as GOP leader.
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Arlington, Va.: I am no fan of George Allen, but the focus of the coverage has taken us away from substantive discussions of issues. Any change we will actually hear some policy discussions in tonight's debate?
Dan Balz: I would assume you'll hear some policy discussion tonight, but questions about his problems and about Webb's also will figure into it.
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New York, N.Y.: Why is Fox News the only one trying to be objective about the Foley matter? Chris Wallace made Marty Meehan defend Gerry Studds on Sunday. It is about time.
Dan Balz: A number of Republicans have made similar points about Gerry Studds, who was censured by the House for his relationship with a male page. My guess is that he would not survive such a scandal today, even if Democrats controlled the House, because of the 24-hour news cycle and far greater attention by society to protecting children.
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Dan Balz: Time is up with many questions still unanswered. For more on politics, drop by tomorrow and every weekday at 11 for more online chatting, keep reading The Fix on our web site, check out our Bellwether Project, which has some newly updated race ratings, listen to the Politics Hour at 1 p.m. on Thursdays on Washington Post Radio and of course, read and subscribe to the newspaper! It should be a wild month ahead.
Have a great week.
Dan Balz
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