Post Politics Hour
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion

Peter Baker
Washington Post White House Reporter
Friday, October 13, 2006 11:00 AM

Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

Washington Post White House reporter Peter Baker was online Friday, Oct. 13, at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest political news and The Post's coverage of politics.

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The transcript follows.

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Peter Baker: Good morning, everyone. Jonathan Weisman couldn't make it today, so you're stuck with me. President Bush today is signing a port security bill, Speaker Hastert is trying to hold his caucus together and Mark Warner is in Iowa NOT running for president. Let's get started.

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Vienna, Va.: Any chance Mark Warner will change his mind again? But more realistically, does this help Clinton, or hurt her since how voters who may have split between Warner and Bayh will now all be behind Bayh?

Thanks.

Peter Baker: Governor Warner's decision not to run for president has turned the political world upside down for a day as everyone tries to figure out why and who benefits. It's hard to imagine him changing his mind, having made this decision, but obviously he hasn't ruled out being recruited to be on the ticket as a vice presidential nominee. In fact, this may position himself for that better because he won't have beaten up the eventual winner while retaining some of that allure that attaches itself to would-be candidates before they're actually bruised by a real campaign. As for Senator Bayh's chances, obviously they have to be enhanced because of this, but he's never had the same sort of buzz that Warner did so he's still got a lot of work ahead of him to position himself as the anti-Hillary candidate.

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Anonymous: From the AP: "Rep. Bob Ney Pleads Guilty. The Ohio Republican faces up to 10 years in prison in a scandal that has tainted the White House and Congress." Why do you think the "culture of corruption" push doesn't resonate with voters? Is it a "they all do it" mentality?

Peter Baker: It's a good question. It may resonate with voters in the sense that it fuels the broader anti-incumbent mood we've found in our polling and reporting. But there is also a sense that "they all do it" and Democrats provide just enough examples to undercut their own argument.

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Seattle, Wash.: What are your thoughts on the survivability of Mr. Hastert and his closest lieutenants?

Peter Baker: Absent any new revelations -- and that's a big if at the moment -- Speaker Hastert looks like he'll survive at least until the election. There's no move afoot among House Republicans to dump him and, with President Bush's encouragement, they seem to have rallied behind him, at least out of the self-interest conclusion that a fallen speaker just weeks before the election would be a political disaster. But the real decision may have been punted down the road just a few weeks. Hastert could decide to step down, or he could be pushed to do so, after the election, especially if Republicans lose the House and they want fresh leadership.

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Rockville, Md.: Who would want to run for President in today's environment? It does not matter what the President does, someone will be critical. Look at President Bush. He essentially pulled out of Afghanistan and stayed in Iraq and neither decision has been favored.

Peter Baker: You raise a great point. I can't imagine why anyone would want to be president. Even in the best of times, your life is no longer your own, everything you do, say or even grunt is examined for sinister meaning, you're invariably accused of some terrible crime, whether you've done it or not, your family is held up to enormous scrutiny, every little lie you ever told, every utility bill you were late paying, all of it is laid out there for all to see. And in particular at this moment, would you want to be the president to inherit Iraq? Having said all that, for a certain breed of people, the hum of "Hail to the Chief" is just an irresistible lure.

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Washington, D.C.: Why does Warner's withdrawal benefit Bayh? I would think it clears the way for Edwards to fill the non-beltway, southern slot. Thanks for doing the chat.

Peter Baker: Some think Senator Edwards benefits as well, and it's early to assign benefits. But Edwards seems to be taking more of a populist tack, coming at Senator Clinton from the left in his discussion of poverty and social justice. Senator Bayh seems closer to Governor Warner in the centrist-moderate wing of the party and so those who were attracted to one may find the other appealing.

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Harrington, N.J.: Many Democrats seem disappointed by Mark Warner's decision not to run for president. But, did anyone actually know what he stood for and what his views were on the issues? With Iraq getting worse by the day, I don't recall every seeing Warner take a clear position on the war. Do you agree that thus far, NONE of the prospective '08 candidates has outlined a coherent alternative to the Republicans?

Peter Baker: You make a smart point. I think Warner's appeal had less to do with specific issue points than the profile he seemed to offer -- centrist, Nascar-loving Southerner, entrepreneur, self-made rich guy, a winner. Warner's played that masterfully. Of course, that obscures the fact that he grew up in Connecticut and that his main accomplishment as governor was raising taxes to pay for transportation, something that no doubt would be in the Republican talking points if he were to run. But he's cultivated a certain image that was helping him and he can charm a room of Iowa delegates.

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Portland, Ore.: You and other reporters frequently make appearances on TV and radio to offer the latest journalistic perspective. How do these arrangements work? Does the broadcaster pay you or The Washington Post for the appearance? (does it matter whether it's the News Hour or Hardball in terms of money?)

Personally, what do you think of these appearances? Are they fun, or do they distract from your real job? Thanks!

Peter Baker: A good question. We are paid for a few of these appearances, but not much and not for most of them. Mostly we tend to do them, I think, because that's the world we live in -- the days when a newspaper reporter just wrote a story are, sadly, over. It's a "multi-platform" media world these days, to use the current buzz word, and to remain relevant we have to play on all the platforms. It helps the Post "brand." So a Post reporter writes for the paper, contributes to the web site, does a chat like this, goes on Washington Post radio (WTWP, 107.7 FM, 1500 AM or click on your home page), yaks on MSNBC or Fox or PBS and so on. Personally, I like these chats; I think they're fun and I enjoy the back and forth with readers. Most of the rest of the multimedia stuff, though, honestly isn't as interesting. I'd rather just focus on reporting and writing a story. But to paraphrase Secretary Rumsfeld, we have to take the media world we have, not the one we want.

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Washington, D.C.: Can you fact check the following statements from President Bush in his recent Rose Garden press conference? How many erroneous statements are contained in these five sentences?

PRESIDENT: ...In 2004, I made a promise to the American people, we would cut the federal budget deficit in half over five years. Today I'm pleased to report that we have achieved this goal, and we've done it three years ahead of schedule.

This morning my administration released the budget numbers for fiscal 2006. These budget numbers are not just estimates; these are the actual results for the fiscal year that ended February the 30th.- -sic These numbers show that the budget deficit has been reduced to $248 billion and is down to just 1.9 percent of the economy...

Peter Baker: President Bush did meet a goal he set in bringing down the deficit but the devil is in the details. He promised to cut the deficit in half a few years back when the projection was it would rise to $521 billion. So when he says he cut it in half, he's referring to that number -- $248 billion is under half of $521 billion. But the trick is the government never did actually have a deficit of $521 billion. The deficit for that year came in at $412 billion. So he's cut the deficit from $412 billion to $248 billion.

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Crystal City, Va.: Gov. Warner vs. Tom Davis when Sen. Warner retires - what's your prediction?

Peter Baker: A fabulous race, don't you think? Of course, it assumes that Senator Warner will retire. He still seems to be going strong and so far as I know hasn't shown signs that he wants to quit anytime soon.

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Alexandria, Va.: This is actually a serious question: I've heard that Sen. Clinton could pick her husband as a VP candidate. Do you think that there is even a remote possibility she'd do so? I think they'd be unbeatable.

Peter Baker: I'm no lawyer, but I imagine that wouldn't be constitutional. The main qualification for being vice president is that you could be president. President Clinton is disqualified by the 22nd Amendment of the Constitution that limits him to two terms in office.

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Washington, D.C.: What correlation, if any, do you see between President Bush's upcoming diplomacy in handling the N. Korea issue and the GOP retaining seats on election day?

Peter Baker: Hard to see a lot of people voting strictly on that issue, but it could flavor the environment and it depends how it plays out. Republicans believe it adds to the discussion of security and the notion that it's a dangerous world out there; analysts often say that when it comes to security, voters prefer the "daddy party," meaning Republicans, over the "mommy party," meaning the Democrats. But obviously Democrats could use it to reinforce their argument that President Bush's policies have made it a more dangerous world and that he's failed to head off North Korea from exploding a nuclear weapon.

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Winnipeg, Canada: In discussions of potential Democratic nominees for President, I never hear Dennis Kucinich mentioned. Has Kucinich expressed any interest in the nomination this time around? If he did, are his chances any better this time around?

Peter Baker: I'm not sure if he has but at the moment, I don't see a groundswell building for him.

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Austin, Tex.: Isn't four weeks prior to the midterm election a little early for presidential announcements, even if in the negative?

Peter Baker: A little odd, yes. Not the normal time. Which is one reason why many are wondering what the hidden reason might be, if any.

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Re: Warner: I am a Democrat and live in Virginia and watched Warner over the years. Even if he had run, he did not have the (for lack of a better word) the charisma to take on Hilary (of whom I am no fan), not to mention the money and the staff. He might be a center, NASCAR-loving kind of guy, but that is simply not enough, not in this climate. I think he was smart to drop out.

Peter Baker: You may be right. I'm not at all sure he could have beaten Senator Clinton. Among other things, he's only won one election in his life and has no national security experience. And he's never been tested on the national stage, where you can be a darling one moment and road kill the next. Look at how fast Governor Warner's fellow Virginian wannabe, Senator George Allen, has fallen in the national sweepstakes.

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Pensions: I'm not sure I want the answer but do former Congressman like Ney, DeLay and Foley collect federal pensions?

Peter Baker: Great question. I turned to our ace investigative reporter, James Grimaldi, and here's his answer:

Ney and others will not lose their pensions. Earlier this year, Congress considered stripping convicted lawmakers of their pensions as part of the ethics reform legislation -- but the bill died in Congress. Ironically, Ney was pushing to revoke the pensions of convicted lawmakers -- but only of those convicted of bribery and extortion. Ney is pleading to a different but related corruption felony, a crime known as honest services, i.e., depriving the public of his honest services. So even the proposal Ney was pushing would not have applied to him.

In a press release at the time the bill passed Ney's committee, the House Administration Committee, Ney said, "This important piece of legislation will increase transparency of Congress' activities, while holding Members of Congress and those they work with to the highest standards in order to ensure that those who abuse the public trust will be dealt with accordingly."

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New York, N.Y.: Bob Ney says he wants alcohol treatment. Foley is in Rehab. I have to tell you I am getting tired of this. I am a recovering alcoholic and in all my drinking days I never once accepted bribes or had the desire to go after boy scouts. What in the world makes it so hard for Republicans to accept ANY personal accountability??

Peter Baker: Lots of buzzing about the rehab route in the political world these days. It does seem to be a pattern. Rep. Patrick Kennedy used it after his late-night traffic mishap as well. To the extent that it may have once earned sympathy for those using it, a backlash may be developing among those with your point of view.

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Alexandria, Va.: Regarding the earlier question about Hillary Clinton pick her own husband as VP. Doesn't she have to stand on her own two feet in order to be taken seriously for 2008? Doesn't her husband overshadow her already and won't than hinder her in the race?

Peter Baker: Oh, of course, you're absolutely right. I just figured let's dispense with it since it's not even a legal possibility.

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Oakland, Calif.: On a strictly analytical comparison, I believe Edwards to be the most electable democrat on today's stage. He is unblemished, articulate and razor sharp. His command and delivery of facts and his ability to charm any audience is unmatched. There are many other Dems--Clinton, Obama, Bayh--who, I think would be great veeps at this juncture. Your thoughts?

Peter Baker: It could be. We'll have to see. I'm not sure there's anyone out there working harder at positioning himself at the moment than Senator Edwards. Charlie Cook, the political handicapper, has written about being impressed by Edwards's nascent campaign. It depends, though, whether Democrats sour on him for not helping the ticket out more in 2004, which is the rap some put on him. He's smart and charming and handsome, but his critics point out that he didn't bring home a single Southern state, even his own.

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Kansas City, Mo.: While the deficit dropped to $248 billion, the national debt increased by $574 billion last year (and fourth year in row over $500 billion) according to Treasury figures. When Clinton was President a lot of conservatives said the surpluses weren't real as the debt kept going up and that excess Social Security made the difference. How come no one makes that argument anymore?

Peter Baker: Democrats make that argument these days. Sen. Kent Conrad, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Budget Committee, made it in our story on this subject this week.

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Charlotte, N.C.: In response to Rockville: I think that the qualities that it takes to be elected president and the qualities it takes to be a good one are mutually exclusive.

Peter Baker: Fair point. Posting to keep the discussion going.

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Reston, Va.: People, (pundits, the media, etc) say that the moment the fall elections are over the 2008 campaign starts for real. Should we take that as a fact. AKA, people will start declaring themselves candidates on Wednesday Nov 8th? Or is there actually a cooling off period, and we probably won't hear about people declaring until January or later?

Peter Baker: Don't know for sure, but I wouldn't expect a long waiting period. One thing will be true after the elections -- one party or the other will be crashing in the midst of plenty of internal what-went-wrong backbiting that will bring calls for change and openings for 2008 candidates to announce their candidacies in the interest of resurrecting their defeated party.

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Bethesda, Md.: Do you think the book written by the former White House Faith Based Initiative director will have any effect on the November elections? Will it get much coverage?

Peter Baker: It could have an impact at the margins, but all it may take is some change at the margins to swing some elections. The picture David Kuo paints inside the White House could further depress Christian conservatives who already are sour on Republicans, particularly in light of the Mark Foley scandal.

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Bethesda, Md.: In response to Charlotte, that is true for all elected office and the reason why the best people for the job are not politicians, which is sad.

Peter Baker: And yet they're the ones who keep running!

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Richmond, Va.: Mark Warner may not have as much natural charisma as, say, Bill Clinton, but he has WAY more than Hillary Clinton, who has no charisma.

She is hated with a passion by the neocons and fundamentalists beyond proportion to her actions, beliefs and threats. I am a super leftie, and an unapologetic feminist, but Hillary Clinton could never win. If she runs, she only make the situation for democrats worse, worse, and worse. Her decision to run would be completely self-centered at the risk to all Americans.

Peter Baker: Posting for the sake of adding another voice. The dynamic that Richmond reflects is a real challenge for Senator Clinton and the Democrats.

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Norwalk, Conn.: Peter, why does Bush or the Republicans receive the label of being better on "terrorism" when the Iraq war has created more of it? Don't you think the media should be more willing to hold him accountable for his incompetence with the Iraq War and connect this failure to Bush's failure on keeping us safe? Please don't use the phase we haven't been attacked in five years because that would dismiss the possibility of any future attacks, which we all know no one can predict.

Peter Baker: It's hard for me to swallow the notion that the media hasn't been holding anyone accountable for what's happening in Iraq. Our correspondents are there risking their lives every day to bring home the real story of what's happening there. As for terrorism, polls suggest that the Republicans may be losing their hold even on this issue. Our latest Post-ABC News poll showed that 53 percent of Americans disapprove of the president's handling of terrorism.

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Warner?: What? So there could never be a Warner vs. Warner race in Virginia? How much fun would that be, just from a media confusion standpoint?

Peter Baker: Oh, there was a Warner vs. Warner race in Virginia, back in 1996 when Mark Warner challenged John Warner for Senate. I covered that for a while. The Democrats printed up tons of "MARKNOTJOHN" bumper stickers. And Mark Warner's closer-than-expected loss to John Warner helped propel him into the governor's race in 2001.

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Lawrence, Kan.: Have you seen any signs the administration might launch an attack on Iran sometime before the election?

Peter Baker: No, no signs, and I would not expect anything of the sort.

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Helena, Mont.: Re: Clinton and Clinton in 2008 - That would mean one or other would have to move out of N.Y., as President and Vice President cannot be from same state (which is why Richard Cheney did that kabuki thing in 2000 to make himself a resident of Wyoming rather than Texas).

Peter Baker: Yes, that's the other constitutional barrier. But that wouldn't be as hard to overcome since they have a house here in Washington, D.C., not to mention Bill Clinton's Arkansas roots, which would allow him to easily reestablish residency there. But again, can't happen -- 22nd amendment, law of the land.

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San Francisco, Calif.: My compliments to WP political reporters. You must be going 24/7 on the omnipresent rancid "stuff" coming out of federal government these days.

Does anything surprise you anymore?

Peter Baker: The only thing that really surprises me is when we get a nice note like this -- and when I look up at the clock and realize my time's already up. Thanks for playing today, everyone. Jonathan will be back in two weeks.

Have a great weekend and go 'Skins.

Peter

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