Outlook: Time for Rumsfeld to Leave?

Robert Dallek , author of the forthcoming "Nixon and Kissinger: Partners in Power," was online Monday, Oct. 9, at 11 a.m. ET to discuss his Sunday Outlook article, where he argues that it is time for Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld to leave the administration. Dallek says the President is keeping someone "who has become the public face of the U.S. debacle in Iraq."

It's Time for Him to Go , ( Post, Oct. 8, 2006 )

The transcript follows.

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Washington, D.C.: What are the chances of Brzezinski ever being asked to be the Secretary of Defense?

Robert Dallek: None existent

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New Hampshire: Good morning, Mr. Dallek.

I watched with interest the testimony from the 3 retired officers at the Democratic Policy Committee a couple of weeks ago. All of them heaped a lot of blame for our failure in Iraq on the Sec Def. Will getting rid of Rumsfeld solve our problem, or does the problem go much deeper? I mean, he alone wasn't totally responsible for the torture, kidnappings, or stripping of habeas corpus, was he?

Robert Dallek: The problem goes much deeper, but removing Rumsfeld might force the sort of debate that could improve matters.

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Washington, D.C.: Is Donald Rumsfeld successful in reforming or modernizing the Pentagon and the U.S. military apparatus?

Why did not he resigned after Abu Ghraib? or the quagmire in Iraq?

Robert Dallek: I don't know, but the leaders of this administration find it difficult to admit errors.

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Fairfax, Va.: Do you believe the reality of Rumsfeld is not Rumsfeld, but the influence and agenda of VP Cheney - who seems to be the one really calling the shots during this and the previous term?

Robert Dallek: I think Rumsfeld and Cheney are both responsible and share a common perspective on what needs to be done.

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Sydney, Australia: Is it even plausible for Rumsfeld to leave at this point in time? Wouldn't it be a huge embarrassment for the administration to replace him now?

Robert Dallek: Yes, it would be, but it could have a positive effect on rethinking what we need to do, as in the examples I included in my article.

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Cairo, Egypt: I am a U.S. expatriate living and working in the Middle East for the last 25 years. Rumsfeld and the Bush administration long ago lost the battle for the hearts and minds of moderate Middle Easterners. In your opinion, who or what comes after Rumsfeld and will it really make any difference? I basically think were finished in this region until Bush and company are out of office.

Robert Dallek: I agree. We will need a fresh start with a president and an administration that strikes people in the Middle East as more receptive to their concerns.

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Bethesda, Md.: Do you agree with Bob Woodward that we need a bipartisan discussion of what steps to take in Iraq (after Rumsfeld is fired) so that it is not a black and white issue (cut and run or continue down the same rabbit hole)? What solutions to you see to the Iraq dilemma?

Robert Dallek: Yes, we do need a bipartisan discussion of what to do. I think we need to press the case with the Iraqis to take responsibility for themselves, but I am not optimistic. Iraq is a society that seems too riven to build a national consensus about anything.

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Tacoma, Wash.: I just finished reading Fiasco, and it seems that Ricks puts the fault of the war at the feet of the three major players. Wolfowitz, Rumsfeld, and Franks.

It appears that Wolfowitz escaped like McNamara before the problems he created really came to fruition. How much of this was actually Rumsfeld not aware of the problems he was creating, and a product of his attitude not letting dissent be heard?

Robert Dallek: I think they all bear responsibility for the war and the policy errors we are currently burdened with.

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Duluth, Minn.: Could you sketch a face-saving scenario which the administration might find palatable for relieving Rumsfeld of duty?

Robert Dallek: A simple honest explanation that things have not been working and that we need a fresh approach to our problems with Iraq. It would I think give Bush an instant boost as someone who finally accepted harsh realities.

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Gaithersburg, Md.: If you could advise Bush to replace the SoD, who would you recommend, and why?

I don't think we can make comparisons to Vietnam with Iraq regarding our policy of "as they stand up, we'll stand down." I think there are greater stakes in the ME vs Vietnam.

Robert Dallek: I'm not sure you are right. We were almost hysterical about the dangers to us from losing Vietnam. They proved to be wrong. We won the Cold War in spite of our defeat in Vietnam. We can wins this war against terrorists even if we don't "win" in Iraq.

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Karachi, Pakistan: Realistically, given the magnitude of the problem, what are the chances that things will improve in Iraq if Secretary Rumsfeld resigns? Suppose Rumsfeld resigns and things still don't improve in Iraq. Who will be blamed for the mess in Iraq then? Isn't Rumsfeld then acting as a political shield for Bush?

Robert Dallek: Yes, in a way Rumsfeld gives Bush some cover, but not a lot. Bush's approval rating are way down because of the failure in Iraq .I'm afraid it's going to take a new administration to get us out of the mess there.

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Austin, Tex.: Do you think that the Bush strategy of "stay the course" is what they'll stick with for the next two years? After he's left office, the next president will probably have to have some plan for withdrawal. Then, the Bush administration can simply blame the next administration for failing to democratize Iraq.

Robert Dallek: I think you are right. This admin. will "stay the course" to no good end. But the country will be so fed up with Iraq by the time Bush leaves, it will be ready to accept any sort of a stand down--as with Vietnam.

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Fountain Valley, Calif.: With North Korea testing a nuclear weapon, do you think that Rumsfeld and the rest of the administration may try to "change the subject" from Iraq? It seems to me that Rumsfeld is best when he's acting like a bully and this may give him that chance.

Robert Dallek: I think you may be right but the public is so attentive to the admin's stealth at this point that it will not be easy for them to pull off some diversion of attention from Iraq.

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Monroe, La.: Would you agree that while Rumsfeld is, and deservedly so, a focal point of the admin's failures, the problems really extend to the entire foreign policy team? I would really appreciate your insight on whether you feel any member of the current foreign policy team is cutting it.

Robert Dallek: Yes, I think you are right. This is a collective failure and will not be remedied until we change administrations.

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Gulf Shores, Ala.: What I don't understand is, why? Why, when it is obvious it isn't working in Iraq, has this administration failed to make changes? Also, I understand some of our best generals are no longer in Iraq? Is that true and if so why?

Robert Dallek: I don't know about "our best generals" being gone from Iraq but it is difficult to understand why the admin, led by Bush and Cheney, are so stubborn about not confronting their shortcomings. It is a disservice to the country.

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Alabama: What do you expect to change if Rumsfeld is fired or resigns? If Cheney is still around, I can't see any significant policy deviations over the next two years.

Robert Dallek: I suspect you are right. I'm afraid we may have to wait until we get a new administration.

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Anonymous: Did you happen to catch CNN's hour long piece on Rumsfeld this weekend? If so what were your thoughts?

Robert Dallek: I'm afraid I didn't see it.

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Madison, Wis.: I've always thought Sec. Rumsfeld would leave when he felt like it, and not before. But if he did decide to leave soon, doesn't the record of this President suggest that his most likely replacement would be someone who already works for the administration -- Dep. Sec. England, for instance?

I understand the reasoning behind bringing in a new guy to implement a new policy, but this President has a long history of not doing this if he can possibly avoid it.

Robert Dallek: I fear you are right and my guess is that we are stuck with the same team for another two years or until we get a new administration.

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Dallas, Tex.: I believe Tommy Franks deserves more condemnation than Rumsfeld for his repeated blunders in Iraq and Afghanistan. However he seems to have escaped and struts around like an Eisenhower or MacArthur type general while Rumsfeld gets all the blame. Why doesn't anyone attack Franks?

Robert Dallek: I think the failures are across the board, beginning with Bush and Cheney. There are no participants here who can come off looking good.

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Arlington, Va.: Woodward's book discloses a memo from Rumsfeld in which Rumsfeld states that the structure of the U.S. government is antiquated and needs to be changed. Do you know if he is referring to the three branches of government, and if so, what is his preferred structure?

Robert Dallek: I have no idea. My guess is that he was talking about the military but perhaps he had other institutions in mind.

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Alexandria, Va.: The administration appears to not care at all about the countless lives lost or about the fact that terrorism has increased. What does the administration care about strongly enough to do something constructive, instead of staying the course?

Robert Dallek: Winning elections and it's reputation, I fear is the answer.

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Knoxville, Tenn.: Does Rumsfeld feel any remorse or regret at his arrogance and his catastrophic blunders?

Robert Dallek: I hope so, but I have seen no sign of such.

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Fredericksburg, Va.: Rumsfeld has never seemed like someone who was willing to play ball with Congress. In his press conferences, he often gets defensive to the point of irrational anger. So why are not more Republicans, even privately, calling for his ouster? I get the impression that the military doesn't like him, the American people don't like him--nobody but Dick Cheney and the President seem to really like him. Does the president take loyalty so far that he will really allow his allegiance to the Secretary of Defense to sink him?

Robert Dallek: I guess so. But Bush is the "decider," as he says, and he can't admit to being so woefully wrong on Iraq and so he keeps Rumsfeld in place.

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Munich, Germany: Through recorded messages from Osama bin Laden, as well as attacks in Europe, Bali, London, Afghanistan and Iraq, I've noticed that terrorists and insurgents have targeted partners of the U.S., in an attempt to isolate the U.S. in its war on terror.

The terrorists must feel that there's something to gain through this strategy.

While much of the original antagonism between the U.S. and Europe over the Iraq War has dissipated, do you see any change in relations between the U.S. and Europe and other countries (Pakistan, etc.) if Secretary Rumsfeld steps down?

Robert Dallek: I hope a new sec of defense and a new administration will give us a fresh start with allies and adversaries. It is difficult to see this admin changing course in the time remaining to it.

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Fairfax, Va.: Do you think we would be on a different course had Rumsfeld be ousted instead of Colin Powell? Who has the President's ear more Rumsfeld, Rice, or Cheney and which was most responsible for the departure of Colin Powell? I think the three aforementioned cabinet members are incapable of bi-partisanship or of admitting that they have made mistakes. This seems to be a party (GOP) trait - do you agree?

Robert Dallek: I agree and I think Powell left because he came to understand this.

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Minneapolis, Minn.: Wouldn't it be more genuinely decisive - and better for Bush, for the Republican party, and for America - if Bush persuaded not Rumsfeld but Cheney to step down? More of a genuine acknowledgement of being on the wrong course, more of a correction - and better for Republicans, since Bush could replace Cheney with his heir apparent, presumably McCain?

Robert Dallek: You are probably right. But at this point I don't think anyone Bush selected would have much credibility. An association with Bush now, as we see from all the congressional candidates, is not good politics for anyone running for office.

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Milwaukee, Wis.: Mr. Dallek, thank you so much for your straight forward answers.

Do you have any idea why the Democrats and Republicans in Congress fail to point out to the President that the occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan fails miserably to meet the criteria of the Powell Doctrine for the use of military force?

Robert Dallek: In wartime, people tend to be overly cautious about criticizing a president, but it is more helpful to the nation for people in Congress to speak out than to stay silent. Some of course have and to their credit are continuing to do so.

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Hong Kong: I'm an American living in Hong Kong. My guess is that Bush/Cheney haven't replaced the SecDef because they have no idea what to do in Iraq, as scary a thought as that is. Replacing Rumsfeld would require them to acknowledge that.

Robert Dallek: I fear you are right. They have no prescription for Iraq except stay the course, which is not a policy

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Arlington, Va.: The maddening thing about Rumsfeld is that he's right about some things, i.e., the need for a larger special forces element in the army and the need to get rid of some Cold War holdover weapons systems, but wrong about what really went wrong in Iraq -- the fact that the regular army simply isn't large enough to meet the requirements of fighting wars simultaneously in two theatres and winning an occupation. How do you think any future SOD or administration is going to address this conundrum?

Robert Dallek: Hopefully, by honestly confronting the problems we have and trying to build a consensus for sensible answers to these problems.

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Portland, Ore.: I realize that Mr. Woodward is a colleague and likely enjoys your support. I find that his work has great integrity and has withstood all challenges. Are you aware of any area of the current book that you or perhaps he feels has not withstood the current onslaught from the administration?

Robert Dallek: No. I'm not.

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Alexandria, Va.: If this becomes a full-blown civil war will that be the tipping point for Rumsfeld? He seems to offer only excuses or silly examples of progress. Nothing concrete to fix the problems.

Robert Dallek: I think it already is a civil war , but I see nothing on the horizon that will bring a significant change in what the administration is doing.

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Carbondale, Colo.: Getting rid of Rumsfeld does not really make me feel any better. Congress needs to send a strong message to Bush that a REAL strategy is needed. $500,000,000,000 in Iraq so far has been squandered, thousands of our troops killed or maimed, tens of thousands of innocent Iraqis displaced, killed or whose quality of life has been taken from them. It's time to get serious about having a real plan! What do you think the plan should entail.

Robert Dallek: I wish I had a good answer other than getting out of Iraq, which is difficult. As Powell said, if you break it, you own it. I think it will take a new administration to find a way out of this conflict.

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Albany, N.Y.: We've been hearing a lot of buzz over the past couple of years about the administration considering plans to invade Iran. What do you think are the chances of this happening?

Robert Dallek: I hope very small. It would be another disaster for the U.S.

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Stoughton, Wis.: Personally, I would like to have seen Rumsfeld, Cheney, and Bush gone long ago. Rumsfeld's departure would seem to be positive for the Military. But would it change the outcome? Isn't it true that we are exactly where we were in Vietnam during the fall of Saigon?

Robert Dallek: I agree entirely. The parallels to Vietnam are eerie. I'm afraid it's going to take a new admin to get us out of the mess we are in.

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Alexandria, Va.: What would Ronald Reagan do? Would he have waged war on Saddam?

Robert Dallek: I doubt it. Reagan was cautious about going to war, as witness his response to the loss of American troops in Beirut.

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Arlington, Va.: Following up, while Rumsfeld and the civilian leadership of the Pentagon bear a huge responsibility for the fiasco in Iraq do you not also agree that the top brass have performed poorly as well as witnessed by their complete unwillingness (with several notable exceptions like Gen. Petraeus and Col. McMaster) to train their officers and men to fight a counterinsurgency?

Robert Dallek: I'm no military expert, but our problem has been poor political judgment by Bush and Cheney and all or most of their subordinates.

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Utrecht, Netherlands: Better late than never. Rumsfeld has always been the wrong man in the wrong place. But the question remains: is there a decent solution for the mess in Iraq and elsewhere, with or without Rumsfeld? It's probably too late.

Robert Dallek: I fear you are right. I believe it will take a new administration to get us out of the mess we are in.

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Chicago, Ill.: Professor Dallek,

Thank you for your time: I've been an admirer of your work since my undergraduate days when Professor Sidney Fine assigned your book on FDR's foreign policy.

On the matter at hand, whom would you suggest the President select as Secretary of Defense, were he to come to realize that Secretary Rumsfeld needs to go? Is there anyone with sufficient gravitas who would be willing to take on such a daunting task?

Thank you for your attention.

Robert Dallek: It's difficult to say who could do the job effectively. I'm afraid it's going to take a new administration to get us out of the mess the current one has put us in.

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Fairfax, Va.: As a "boomer" growing up during and living through the Viet Nam era, I find many eerie similarities between Robert McNamara and Donald Rumsfeld right down to the look, manner and even the appearance of "I am so much smarter than you, I won't distinguish your question." Do you think we will ever read an "I was mistaken" book from Rumsfeld in the same vein as McNamara at some future date.

Robert Dallek: I suspect not. McNamara is a more thoughtful man than Rumsfeld.

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Charleston, S.C.: What did Rumsfeld play in Vietnam?

Is he repeating the same mistakes?

Robert Dallek: He was in the Nixon admin as head of OEO, a domestic agency. But, I agree,he seems to be repeating the same mistakes we made in Vietnam.

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Murrells Inlet, S.C.: In its essence the current Iraq policy is and has been the president's - he is the "decision maker." Effectively what difference would getting rid of Rumsfeld make if the "stay the course" policy remains the same as prescribed by Bush ?

Robert Dallek: I agree. It is Bush who must be held accountable--Rumsfeld is more the symptom than the cause. If he fired Rumsfeld, however, it might signal that Bush was ready for a substantive change. I'm not holding my breath.

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New Jersey: Mr. Dalleck, you are familiar with Donald Rumsfeld's personality: how will he take being made the fall guy for Iraq? Right now he's on the receiving end of arrows from the military, the neo-conservative movement, and many journalists. Is he likely to allow the attacks to become textbook judgments? Will he be willing to let his name pretty much stand alone with "the Iraq disaster?"

How do you think he will react?

Robert Dallek: I agree. He would not let himself be seen as the fall guy and I believe he would be able to make a strong case for the fact that others from Bush and Cheney down were at the center of this failure.

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Fort Myers, Fla.: Since the Sec. of Defense serves at the pleasure of the president, is not the flap about Rumsfeld really about the competence of George W. Bush? Bush could have chosen to sack Rumsfeld at any time during the past few years, after the gross mistakes in Iraq became evident, but Bush kept him in office.

Robert Dallek: I agree. It is Bush who is responsible.

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Arlington, Va.: I always enjoyed watching and thought Sec Rumsfeld did a great job tactically at dealing with questions from a slightly hysterical press corps during the initial invasion of Iraq. He is also a strategic thinker, just not a very adept or informed one. Someone like a Sen Warner would make a better replacement for the country, although we would miss him in Virginia. But in any case, the likelihood of Pres Bush removing Sec Rumsfeld seems exceedingly low. Pres Bush has never been one to 'cut and run' on his inner circle or his core ideas (no matter the evidence of their failure) and Rumsfeld embodies both of these, so he will stay.

Robert Dallek: I suspect you are right. Rumsfeld will stay to the end of Bush's term.

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Sydney, Australia: At this point in time, is it plausible that Rumsfeld would voluntarily step down or be asked to step down, even if that's what he himself AND George W. Bush wanted? Wouldn't that be seen as a huge embarrassment for all involved? Unfortunately, this seems to be yet another corner the administration has painted itself into.

Thank you.

Robert Dallek: No. I don't think Rumsfeld will step down. And yes, the problems will remain even if he left.

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washingtonpost.com: Thank you all for joining us today.

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