Post Politics Hour

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Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

Washington Post congressional reporter Jonathan Weisman was online Tuesday, Oct. 17, at 11 a.m. ET.

The transcript follows.

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Jonathan Weisman: Hello everyone, the political season is heating up, and things keep coming up stinky for the Republicans. A Weldon raid, more bad polls. But hey, three weeks is an eternity, right? So let's get started.

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Cumberland, Md.: The story from last week that has stayed with me the most is that 2.5 percent of the Iraqi population has died as a result of the war. That's amazing and sad and incredible and I wonder why people aren't more shaken up about this? If that happened here, based on the latest that America's got 300 million people, it'd be 7.5 million people. Even so, I think the report said that something like 600,000 people have died because of this. I know there are elections coming up here, and the voters can express their opinions then, but are they listening to all of this? Thanks.

Jonathan Weisman: It was a shocking statistic, but it was quickly dismissed by President Bush. The number became just another partisan issue, with Republicans on one side and Democrats on the other. And as such, people tend to dismiss such stories as just more political gamesmanship. That's sad for the researchers at Johns Hopkins University, who after all are not doing the work of the Democratic National Committee.

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Los Gatos, Calif.: Good morning:

Assuming that the Dems win the House, what will be the first bill out of Rangel's Ways and Means Committee?

Jonathan Weisman: I seriously doubt a tax increase will be one of the first orders of business. One of the most important things the Republicans have done over the past two years is to extend all of Bush's major cuts through 2010. The Democrats may be willing to let some or most of those cuts lapse at their due date, but they know the implications of a tax hike right out of the gate. If anything, the first measures would probably be to extend routine tax cuts that the Republicans allowed to expire this year, such as the R&D tax credit and the Work Opportunity Tax Credit for the hiring of folks off welfare.

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Arlington, Va.: As a journalist, what do you make of a recent poll by the Program on International Policy Attitudes that indicates the following: "seven in ten Iraqis want U.S.-led forces to commit to withdraw within a year". I have seen no coverage of this in The Post and was wondering if you think this poll is newsworthy?

Jonathan Weisman: I actually do think we mentioned that. And it is not an aberration. We've written up other polls showing a majority of Iraqis want the troops to commit to a withdrawal.

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Capitol Hill manager: I am utterly dismayed by the Va. proposed marriage amendment. If people in that state are SO narrow minded and spiteful as to vote something like this onto the distinguished state constitution, then I will do my BEST not to step foot into the state or spend a penny that would go towards Va. sales tax. The technology driven NOVA corridor will certainly see losses as a result. I also will encourage any gay friends or family to move from the "Hate State". With so many important issues in our political climate today, how could this have come so far?

Jonathan Weisman: Hey, Virginia seems to be behind the curb. How many states passed marriage amendments in 2004? It's going to get harder and harder for you to spend your money.

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Laurel, Md.: What is driving the recent bad karma that seems to surround the Republican Party lately?

Jonathan Weisman: It does seem like some serious bad karma. I am constantly questioned why I cover Republican scandals and not Democratic ones. But because the Republicans have had such complete control over Washington, the Democrats have not had much opportunity to be scandalous. Harry Reid was just accused of spending $3,000 out of his campaign fund on Christmas bonuses for the support staff at the Ritz Carlton where he lives. Compare that to Rep. John Doolittle, who appears to have spent orders of magnitude more on gifts, spa treatments, weekends at Beds and Breakfasts, etc. You get the point.

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Minneapolis, Minn.: Hi Jonathan -- the Republicans seem to be hitting the "who wants Nancy Pelosi as speaker" message pretty hard. If the polls are any indication, it doesn't seem to be working. Is the parallel message from Dems questioning Hastert's competence working better? Who do you think is "winning" in the battle of the Speakers, present and possibly future?

Jonathan Weisman: The Nancy Pelosi line appears to be aimed more at getting partisan Republicans to the polls than changing swing voters' minds. Recent polls show it may be working to some extent. Self-identified Republicans know who Pelosi is at far greater rates than self-identified Democrats. As for Hastert, suddenly everybody knows who he is, 10 years after becoming speaker. The Democrats don't need to say a thing. They're letting the news do the talking.

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Bethesda, Md.: Two questions. (1)On the Johns Hopkins study that the Bush administration summarily dismissed, what is Hopkins doing to counter this disinformation campaign? (2) If the Dems. win the House, is Pelosi really a shoe-in for Speaker or might the Dems. decide on a different or more effective voice to represent them? and if so, who's in the running? Thanks. (I guess that's really three questions.)

Jonathan Weisman: 1) Nothing. It's not the place of researchers to counter a political campaign, and they did not release their study to be part of the political season.

2) Yes, she's a shoo-in. Pelosi will be seen as the one to issue the Democrats out from the wilderness. Remember, Gephardt's problems came because he could not do the hardball politics that Pelosi is good at.

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Chevy Chase, Md.: Mr. Weisman, Thank you for taking my question. Given the Supreme Court's current make-up, it seems likely that the Senate will face one more nominee before President Bush leaves office. What will be the impact if the Republican's lose three Senate seats, specifically, Santorum, Dewine, and Burns? Is the "nuclear option" off the table? Does this mean that Democrats will be able to block any nominee other than a true moderate? What if the total loss is 4 (Chafee), what will be the impact of that?

Jonathan Weisman: If the Republicans lose just three seats, the impact may be minimal. If they lose more, and certainly if they lose control, the impact would be huge.

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Philadelphia, Pa.: "That's sad for the researchers at Johns Hopkins University, who after all are not doing the work of the Democratic National Committee."

I wish that point would be made more often when reporters are covering this story. And that the truth isn't biased, it's the truth. Just because Bush dismisses it doesn't mean it's true. The man has been wrong countless times in the last 6 years.

Also, I believe about the same percentage of Americans died as a result of The American Civil War. Can we call the Iraq war a civil war now?

Jonathan Weisman: The truth is the truth, but statistics are not necessarily. The Hopkins study was done by taking a relatively small sample of households and extrapolating outward. Just like any academic study, it is subject to legitimate questioning.

About the civil war, I do find it odd that we keep saying Iraq is on the verge. For Americans, I think it will take the Sunnis suiting up in Gray and the Shi'ites donning Blue with funny hats.

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Roseland, N.J.: Good morning Jonathan. Thank you for being with us.

Saddam Hussein will be sentenced on November 5th, the day before the election. Some are saying that date's been manipulated by the White House to help their party. But if I were a GOPer running in a close race, the LAST thing I'd want is ANYTHING reminding voters about the war in Iraq. Do you agree?

Jonathan Weisman: I think tat by Nov. 5, minds will be very much made up. They probably are already.

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Atlanta, Ga.: If the Democrats take over one or both houses of Congress will Pres. Bush change and try to work with them or stay the course and be as partisan as ever?

Jonathan Weisman: Who knows? But my suspicion is that he will have to work with the Democrats to shore up his legacy. Otherwise, his second term will be defined by Iraq and only Iraq.

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Arlington, Va.: The press bias against the GOP is at record-high levels. After all, 90% of all reporters self-report that they are liberal Democrats and it is apparently impossible for human nature to rise above sheer partisanship. I'm a registered "Independent" but every Republican I know is boiling mad at the press and ready to tear into those voting booths. Wanna bet liberals are eating crow on November 8th???

Jonathan Weisman: I don't make political bets.

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Washington, D.C.: Jon,

So what's Webb's best issue? We see that at long last the administration cannot automatically count on the military vote; Webb's son is in uniform in Iraq. He is a former secretary of the Navy. Is this helping him at Hampton Roads?

Jonathan Weisman: Yes, although the Post's most recent poll was striking in how much support Allen has outside NoVa and how much Webb is dependent on a huge turnout from the D.C. suburbs.

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Fairfax, Va.: Assuming the Democrats win the House in November, how much staying power are they likely to have? Redistricting is very friendly to Republicans, even if recent scandals haven't been. For example, even if they win DeLay's seat or Ney's seat or Foley's seat, can voters from those districts be expected to continue to vote against their mindsets in two years, or would Hastert likely be right back in the Speaker's chair in '08?

Jonathan Weisman: Excellent question. If the Democrats can put forward a good presidential candidate with real, widespread appeal, Democrats could cement gains, though they'd almost certainly lose some marginal seats. But a bad showing by the Democratic presidential candidate in 08, or a really good Republican candidate could easily undo many if not most seats they gain this year.

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Arlington, Va.: Looking at the poll numbers for both Bush's performance and voting preferences for candidates, there don't seem to be many "undecided" people. This is understandable but are there other data within these numbers that show how strongly the voters feel on either side of an opinion or candidate?

Jonathan Weisman: Yes, there's a lot of data indicating that Democratic voters are more likely to show up to vote than Republicans. That shows they have what pollsters call the "intensity." But don't read too much into that. Republicans have a get out the vote machine that will bring even grumbling voters to the polls.

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Glenside, Pa.: What impact do you think the Terry Schiavo incident and Katrina had in getting Republicans where they are today?

Jonathan Weisman: I think they all contributed. Schiavo made a lot of people very angry and opened up some weakly Republican voters to the idea of change. Katrina was huge, a real indication to many voters that the problems of competence in governance they were seeing in Iraq could apply domestically as well. Many observers think President Bush -- and by extension, the GOP -- has never fully recovered.

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Fairfax, Va.: Why is it that when Republicans win elections, the Democratic concept of bipartisanship is that they give up nothing (see the way they've treated Bush court appointees), but win Democrats (potentially) win elections, their definition of bipartisanship doesn't include THEM giving up on their beliefs? It's easy to fight for "bipartisanship" when you keep losing elections, isn't it?

Jonathan Weisman: Good point. Democratic leaders have been lamenting about the lack of bipartisanship for years, and they insist they really will reach out to Republicans if they take back the House. The problem is that if they do, it will be at the expense of many moderate Republicans that would have been their potential partners. We shall see.

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Washington, D.C.: Jonathan,

The clear split between beltway Virginians and their rural cousins has been clearly revealed in the Gay Marriage amendment polls and in their preferences for Webb over George Allen. With such a pronounced advantage in the D.C. suburbs, what's Webb's best issue out their in the hinterlands? We see from various news sources and analyses that at long last the administration cannot automatically count on the military vote; Webb's son is in uniform in Iraq. He is a former secretary of the Navy. Is this helping him at Hampton Roads and out their in the Red Beyond?

Jonathan Weisman: He will try to diminish Allen's advantage in Hampton Roads with his Navy credentials, but the winning path was shown by Tim Kaine, win big in NoVa and bring out the vote. That is why they are running so negative on Allen -- stir up the Democratic base and make them mad.

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New Hope, Pa.: Why do you think Curt Weldon's daughter was targeted by the FBI when USA Today reports there are more than 30 Member of Congress family members lobbying their relatives in Congress?

Jonathan Weisman: The Weldon investigation goes back at least a year, when the LA Times wrote about it. The USA Today piece was excellent, but legitimate lobbying can use family connections to grease the skids. The allegations against Weldon is that his daughter wasn't really legit. She had no experience at all. She just joined a firm with a Weldon business partner to put the Weldon name on the company's shingle.

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Boca Raton, Fla.: We all agree that hat Foley did was wrong and is gone. However, I didn't see any reporting on the verification of the new page's emails. Has any proof been provided or is it just make a claim and we will believe you and print it?

Jonathan Weisman: Only the Washington Post and ABC News actually have the Instant Messages. We know our sources. We know what the IMs actually look like, their format, etc. We know they are legit.

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Centreville, Va.: I would remind "Independent" from Arlington that reporters don't make the news, only report on it. I may be naive, but I've never really understood the position that the press has a bias one way or another. I read the stories and decide what to think on my own. Whatever a reporter's political affiliation, if any, do you think that most reporters are able to simply report the facts, and let the facts speak for themselves?

Jonathan Weisman: I think we are very able. We have multiple layers of editors, and because of folks like Independent, we are very conscious of perceived bias.

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Campbell, Mo.: If the Democrats gains control of the Senate, will Sen. Harry Reid's land deal keep him from being Majority Leader? Who will contend for the post if Reid is forced out?

Jonathan Weisman: At this point, I don't think the land deal will keep him from the post. Senate Democrats like the guy, and the land deal is funny. It's more of an issue of proper reporting than obvious impropriety. That said, ordinary folks like you or me don't seem to turn $700,000 profits on land deals in a few years. If more comes out, he could be in trouble.

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Re Fairfax's description of bipartisanship: I think there is no better contrast of bipartisanship than in Texas -- Bush ran in 2000 bragging about the bipartisanship that was accomplished when Dems were in control of the legislature. The parties worked together and found common ground. Once Republicans won control of the legislature, Dems were locked out, ignored and redistricted out of office. As far as I'm concerned, the GOP definition of bipartisanship is "what we are sometimes forced to do when out of power."

Jonathan Weisman: OK. I always thought Bush could be more bipartisan in Texas because Democrats tend to be more conservative. But I am not so aware of the current state of play in Austin.

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Don King? Don King?: So how exactly does getting an endorsement from Don King help Michael Steele?

Jonathan Weisman: I don't think it will, but it's worth writing up for the entertainment value of the ever-entertaining Mr. King.

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Cambridge, Mass.: It seems to me that the decision of who is fit to govern is a very simple one. If your performance over the past years was on par with the current administration, would you still have a job?

Jonathan Weisman: Mistakes were made.

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Washington, D.C.: Is the Curt Weldon seat critical to holding Republican control of the House? Why did the Justice Department target him three weeks out from the mid-terms? Did NSA intercepts play a role in this case?

Jonathan Weisman: In this environment, every seat is critical. Weldon was already in trouble. He's probably sunk now. According to our story this morning, DOJ rushed the raid to get ahead of the leaks. Ironically, that information came from a leak. And I don't think the NSA had anything to do with those wiretaps. Those were the old-fashioned law enforcement kind, complete with a warrant from a judge.

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Washington D.C.: Mr. Weisman,

How can Michael Steele campaign with convicted criminals like Don King and expect to win ? I sense the RNC, in particular Ed Gillespie, has really blown it with his minority inclusion campaign. What happens if Steele, Blackwell and Swann lose? Thanks.

Jonathan Weisman: Chances are against all three gentlemen. Steele is really the Republicans' only hope, but he's running in a very Blue State in a very Democratic year. I think Republicans will keep trying to recruit black Republicans to run. They need to do so in a better political environment, with folks less polarizing that Blackwell and more experienced than Swann.

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White Plains, N.Y.: Why is there so much noise about Reid's land deal and so little about Hastert's much more profitable - and sleazy - land deal?

Jonathan Weisman: We put Hastert's deal on the front page. If anything, the opposite is true.

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Fairfax, Va.: For argument's sake, let's assume after this election the Democrats hold 51 Senate seats. Further, let's assume Justice Stevens retires and Bush nominates a replacement in the mold that he promised during the Presidential campaigns. Considering that Tim Johnson and Mary Landrieu will be up for re-election in 2008, and especially Johnson should have on his mind what happened to Daschle, how strongly will they be able to fight against it?

Jonathan Weisman: Excellent question. Democrats would control the Senate floor and could delay consideration for a long time. They could also hold exhaustive hearings in the Judiciary Committee, trying to find something to sink the nominee. But eventually, a Supreme Court nominee would have to come to a vote. Remember, Clarence Thomas was not almost sunk because of his views on Roe V. Wade. It was more his alleged views on illicit viewing material.

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Boca Raton, Fla.: Jonathan, Thanks. So only Curt Weldon's daughter was not "legit"and all the other family lobbyist are? What are the odds on that?

Jonathan Weisman: Very long, but the FBI goes after these things one at a time.

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Sterling, Va.: Can the GOP loss of the USHR be a blessing in disguise? The GOP could link Pelosi's views closely to HRC should she decide to run in '08 for POTUS.

There's been a bit of talk about Gore returning to seek the nomination. He is seen as the anti-HRC Dem. Could their inter-party squabbles divide the Dems in a way unseen since '68?

Jonathan Weisman: Ah, thinking strategically. Yes, lots of folks have said Democrats would be better off almost winning the House and running against continued GOP control in 08. But a win is a win and you take it when you can. I think a lot of Democrats in DC fear a Hillary candidacy would be a ticket to a Republican restoration in 08. What do I think ? I don't know.

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Following up on Supreme Court Question: I had thought that the "nuclear option" was a very close call in the Senate. Are you of the opinion that all Republican Senators would have voted to take away minority rights with regard to confirmation. Taking Burns and Santurom out doesn't effect that equation?

Jonathan Weisman: They weren't part of the gang of 14, but DeWine was, and I think Chafee was too. I think after this election, they are back to the drawing board. The political atmosphere will be very much changed.

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Abingdon, Md.: So what do you make of the news about RNC Chairman Mehlman and ties to Abramoff accepting gifts (and not disclosing the information?) -- any additional impact to the GOP?

Jonathan Weisman: Sure. Anytime Mr. Abramoff is back in the news, it allows local media outlets to question their own congressmen, especially in California, where Reps. Pombo and Doolittle are under the Abramoff cloud, and Montana, where Conrad Burns as the Jack on his Back.

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Pittsburgh, Pa.: What ever happened to the allegations that Va. Sen. George Allen used the N-word when he was younger? Did the accusations pan out, or was there no strong evidence? Why did the story seem to drop off the MSM radar -- although to some, it's a deal-breaker.

Jonathan Weisman: They didn't pan out. They just played out. How many times can the press write about it? The issue certainly has become part of the zeitgeist of the race.

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Washington, D.C.: Don King is a Republican. Why shouldn't he endorse Steele? Besides, there are plenty of prominent Republicans with records these days.

Jonathan Weisman: True

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Washington, D.C.: Regarding Harry Reid's land deals, can't the transaction be equated to buying a house in one of the prosperous Washington, D.C. suburbs in 1998 and selling it in 2005? Housing prices went up nearly 100 percent during that time. If no outside "influence" were used, is this kind of profit problematic? (Please excuse the alliteration).

Jonathan Weisman: That's what Reid's folks say: A lot of money has been made on real estate in the Vegas area of late. The problem would come if it surfaced that Reid was acting on a tip that ordinary people would not have gotten, or was somehow fronted some or all of the initial investment.

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Washington, D.C.: Crooks and bigger crooks?

Rahm Emmanuel, former Clinton staffer and now a Congressman from Illinois, was quoted in a recent New Yorker article to the effect that Dennis Hastert is a crook of the common garden variety found on the Hill. Specifically, he engineered federal funding for some kind of land deal in Illinois where he had bought property, increasing his net worth, according to Emmanuel, from $300,000 to six or seven million. Why do you think Emmanuel has not brought this up, especially in light of the accusations against Senator Harry Reid? I mean, the New Yorker is a serious magazine, and it's doubtful that a sitting congressman would have said such a thing to the reporter if he hadn't had some kind of hard evidence. Why don't we hear more about this?

Jonathan Weisman: Rahm was pointing to a land deal that has gotten lots and lots of press, including a front page story in the Post by yours truly and exhaustive coverage in the Illinois press. This is no secret. You just have to follow the news.

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Arlington, Va.: Unfortunately in the game of politics... most of the blame for the response to Katrina was put on the administration's shoulders by political pundits and columnists. Very little discussion was made on the national stage regarding whether the local or state governments did everything in their power to evacuate, rescue, and stem the suffering. Whether this was fair or not may not make a difference now since media generated perceptions have already been engrained into most people

Jonathan Weisman: Good point. Around the one-year anniversary, I heard from Republicans who said they really wanted to open up on Gov. Blanco and Mayor Nagin to shift the focus away from FEMA and the Feds. But the White House said back off.

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Fairfax, Va.: Re: My earlier question on bipartisanship. It seems to me that if one party is continually losing elections, as Democrats have been since 1994, the American public is asking that the other party's views be the ones that are followed in relatively strong terms. Bush campaigned on strict constructionist judges, Bush won the election, so should Democrats assume that the country wants strict constructionist judges and cede to the wishes of its citizens?

Jonathan Weisman: Presidential elections swing on meta issues, like trust and personality. Members of Congress are representatives of the people. They should be doing the wishes of their constituents.

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Philadelphia, Pa.: "I think after this election, they are back to the drawing board. The political atmosphere will be very much changed."

Of course, especially if the Dems take control. The Reps were only interested in the nuclear option if they were the majority.

Jonathan Weisman: Yes

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Minot, N.D.: Have you ever seem a more corrupt Congress? Cunnigham, DeLay, Ney, Foley, Abramoff, Doolittle, Weldon, Hastert, Reid, Conrad, Frist. Bribes, alcoholics, sex seekers. What a country!

Jonathan Weisman: I think we are in record territory: Four members have been indicted or forced to resign this year. Two others, Weldon and Jefferson, are the subjects of federal probes that we know of, and there are probably more linked to Abramoff. It is amazing.

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Charleston, S.C.: How are polls of Iraqi citizens even conducted? How to the pollsters define an accurate statistical sample? Are there enough phones working in Iraq to conduct an accurate poll?

Jonathan Weisman: I think they are conducted by phone and canvassers, but for obvious reasons, the margins of error are much larger. Phones don't work. Canvassers are at risk of death. It's not easy.

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Twinbrook, Md.: How can Bush just get away with dismissing the Iraqi death toll study with a wave of his hand? This was a peer review study using standard wildly accepted scientific methods. How come that hasn't gotten more press?

Jonathan Weisman: It's gotten a lot of press, but for goodness sakes, we have a lot to write about these days. (And we're spending a lot of time on Internet chats.)

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Dallas, Tex.: Although Sen. Frist isn't running for re-election, he is still sniffing around the White House, right? Why haven't we heard something regarding his questionable stocks sale?

Jonathan Weisman: When and if he announces his candidacy, you'll hear a lot. It is true that the SEC announced an investigation and we haven't heard Word 1 since. Stay tuned.

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Fairfax, Va.: The Allen allegations "played out"? Why didn't the press investigate the deer head in the mailbox claim (by a radiologist friend of Allen's at the time)? That shouldn't have been too hard to track down. Who could forget having a deer head in your mailbox? The media is protecting Allen. If the deer head story is true he would be finished wouldn't he?

Jonathan Weisman: It wasn't for lack of trying, my friend

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Arlington, Va.: Funny thing. I live in Arlington as well and all my Republican friends have been hiding their heads in the sand lately. One made a comment last Friday "I guess there are no good ones up there..huh" - this from a very right wing type person was meant as a sort of reconciliation. They are ashamed and angered by their parties foibles and anyone who thinks differently is mistaken.

Jonathan Weisman: According to the polls, your Republican friends seem more representative than Mr. Arlington. We shall soon see.

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Prescott, Ariz.: Hi, if I understand the Reid's problem correctly, it is that he bought land and put it in a corporation, at which point he should have reported his holdings as in an amorphous corporation. Instead he kept reporting what the corporation owned. Thus his failure was one of too much disclosure. I can understand why too much disclosure would make Republicans angry but really, is there anything more than this?

Jonathan Weisman: You seem to have this down. But Republicans would say that had Reid reported the sale of the land to an LLC that he co-owned with a business partner would have raised some red flags about the business's origins and the relationship between Reid and his business buddy.

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Don't lie!: You love the Internet chats. We all know it!

Jonathan Weisman: OK, you caught me. I do.

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Munich, Germany: I have the impression that these politics chats are dealing more with the politics of politics (scandals and rumors) than policy, than in the past.

When discussing policy, normal nobodies can have the feeling that they're making a difference (if not saving the planet from impending ruin). When discussing rumors, you only get the feeling of spreading gossip.

Maybe washingtonpost.com should consider starting a chat explicitly for policy. I'm sure that it'd be highly contentious, but also incredibly popular.

Jonathan Weisman: Thanks for writing, but we do. When Dana Priest or Tom Ricks holds a chat, we don't talk about Macaca moments.

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Jonathan Weisman: OK guys, I know there are a ton more questions, but I've got a congressman on the phone, so I've gotta go.

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