D.C., Maryland and Virginia Politics

WTOP political commentator Mark Plotkin was online Tuesday, Oct. 24, at 2 p.m. ET to discuss local politics and whatever else is on your mind.

Plotkin joined WTOP after 10 years as a political analyst for WAMU radio. He has been active in D.C. and national politics since attending George Washington University in the late '60s.

A transcript follows.

____________________

Washington, D.C.: Mark, I'm worried about the latest Mason-Dixon poll showing Allen pulling ahead in Va. If you were advising the Webb campaign, what would you tell them? Should he focus more on advertising to affect his poll numbers? Or should he be entirely focused on his ground game and bringing out his base on Election Day? Thanks

Mark Plotkin: This Senate race is going to be, I predict (he said modestly) will be the most watched race in the country. The control of the U.S. Senate may ride on this result. Webb will be our guest on the Politics Program this Friday on Washington Post Radio 107.7 FM 1500 AM at 10 a.m. I don't advise campaigns, but what I will say is that Webb will do very well in Northern Virginia, but he needs to cut into Allen's margins in the rest of the state. He now seems to have the money to compete, but Virginia is still a Republican state and if Webb should win, it would be considered an upset. Nothing replaces identifying your voters and getting them to the polls. The ground game is essential. Webb has come back in an impressive way. He was down in the middle of the summer by sixteen points and now this race is considered a toss-up.

_______________________

Turnout: Mark: I think today's poll showing independents are turning away from the Republicans raises a very key point: all of the polls, analyses and prognostications tell us nothing. The elections will come down to turnout and that means the GOP (much as I hate to admit it) still has a chance to hold on to both Houses. If that happens, it would also mean that a minority viewpoint would be ruling the country, which I hope will scare people into voting.

Mark Plotkin: This is the greatest fear amongst Democrats that the Republican election day operation is so good. In fact, it starts 72 hours before election day. Democrats are hoping that the Republican base, including Christian Conservatives, stay home. It's two weeks from today and all the signs are pointing to a Democratic takeover in the House and a possible Senate takeover as well. To use the tired old cliche, two weeks in politics is a lifetime. The Independents turning to the Dems by fifty nine to twenty one percent is a significant figure and should benefit that party in a major way. I read an article today in the Post that said that there is a competitive race where the Democrats stand a chance of picking up a seat in of all places, Idaho. Idaho is the second most Republican state in the Union, Utah is first.

_______________________

Washington, D.C.: do you think that Robert Bobb will win the school board race and what are your thoughts about how he will be able to work with Adrian Fenty?

Mark Plotkin: Robert Bobb surely looks like the favorite. Today he got the Washington Post endorsement and Carolyn Graham has some problems which the Washington Examiner has been writing about. Timothy Jenkins is a Republican, although he doesn't advertise it, and was for a short time President of UDC. Laurent Ross has some good ideas and speaks well and clearly about his positions, but unfortunately for him, he's vastly underfinanced and not very well known. Bobb has raised over $150,000 and has the best name recognition. Fenty is intent on having the board become "advisory" and if that becomes reality will by all means reduce the profile and importance of the board and Bobb.

_______________________

Fairfax, Va.: I am embarrassed to admit that I am 'represented' by Tom Davis. It staggers me that under his chairmanship the Governmental Reform committee couldn't find any incompetence, corruption or inefficiencies to go after. From my perspective, given Davis's 95% party line voting record, the 11th district would be better served by leaving the seat vacant. Is there any possibility of Hurst posing any kind of serious threat to this bozo???

Mark Plotkin: You know, I must take issue with your view of Tom Davis. He has championed the D.C. voting rights issue with no apparent benefit in his district. He's done this skillfully and courageously and D.C. residents have a friend in Tom Davis. Davis was on the Politics Program on Washington Post Radio on Friday and says that his party line record is about 80 percent and cites his vote to override the President's veto on stem-cell research as an indication of his independence. He won with 60 percent of the vote last time. Hurst is running an energetic campaign and I think Davis knows that his margin will be smaller, but he's taking Hurst seriously. He "pleads guilty" to passing out lollipops at the Giant. He also has raised a lot of money and he feels that Hurst is using this campaign to make a good showing and then run for the state legislature. One thing is sure, Davis is not taking anything for granted.

_______________________

Washington, D.C.: Hi Mark, I got my DC Voter Guide in the mail last week and I've been reading all the candidate's statements. Besides the fact that none of the candidates running for president of the Board of Education mention much of their experience in education, I was also surprised at the statements for shadow senator and representative. Very, very few seemed to be qualified even for this job if we are to judge based on writing and communication ability alone. Where can I find more information about these positions? Do these elected officials actually do anything? And if I run a write-in campaign for shadow representative, do I have a chance of competing with the poor choices given?

Mark Plotkin: I tried to get Bill Clinton to run for one of these positions. I'm serious. The positions need a well known candidate with a national following and they should be paid a salary. The council is worried that they would surpass them in importance. I suggest that you call the candidates individually. You can get their numbers from the Board of Elections 202-727-2525.

_______________________

Washington, D.C.: What do you know about Mayor Williams' plans, after he leaves office?

Mark Plotkin: I think he's asking himself the same question. I think he thought Frank Raines at Fannie Mae was going to take care of him, but instead Raines was fired. He surely is well educated and talented, but I can't see him as a university president, that requires picking up the phone and asking people for money. He won't pick up the phone to do anything. I bet he works for some type of consulting firm which can use his prominence and his accounting and legal background.

_______________________

Baltimore, Md.: Regarding the Cardin/Steele race - I've heard mention that one poll shows them neck and neck, which I personally find hard to believe, while other polls show Cardin with a comfortable lead. Which poll showed them close, and is that credible? Thanks.

Mark Plotkin: Yes, there are some polls that show this race as close. I think that Cardin is going to win easily. I've said this before, I feel that Mfume endorsing him cleared the way for African American support and that the state has not elected a Republican since 1986 and the last time a Republican beat a Democrat incumbent was 1970, when J. Glenn Beall beat Joe Tydings. By the way, I don't understand why Steele will not come in and spend an hour on Washington Post Radio. If you see him, tell him the invitation is still open. How can this hurt?

_______________________

Baltimore, Md.: Once again, since I can't listen to radio, or participate in these chats live, at work, here goes: Did Ms. Cox show up for your show? If so, how did she do? I reluctantly voted for Ehrlich last time, in part because of what I considered to be KKT's abysmal choice for Lt. Gov. Now I'm about to go back to my Democratic roots, primarily because of Ehrlich's Lt. Gov. choice. While I wouldn't call her "abysmal," I also wouldn't call her "qualified." Thanks for your thoughts.

Mark Plotkin: I found Kristin Cox very appealing. She made a good case for herself and I found her very likeable. That is not necessarily a basis for her success. The election is not going to turn on this choice, I still think it was done to present a "softer, gentler" Bob Ehrlich.

_______________________

Columbia, Md.: What are the latest poll numbers in the O'Malley/Ehrlich race?

Mark Plotkin: The latest Baltimore Sun poll published a few weeks ago had O'Malley up by six or seven points. I think it's going to be a close race. John Kane, the chairman of the Republican Party in Maryland, said on the Politics Program that Ehrlich would win by two points. Not a resounding vote of confidence. He said he wanted his troops to come out. O'Malley will do well in Baltimore County, where Kathleen Kennedy Townsend was trounced by 20 points. I think it's O'Malley's to lose. He will be on the Politics Program this coming Monday at 10 a.m.

_______________________

Silver Spring, Md.: You said: "By the way, I don't understand why Steele will not come in and spend an hour on Washington Post Radio. If you see him, tell him the invitation is still open. How can this hurt?"

Come on, Mark. Steele is doing his best to avoid talking about real issues because he is so far to the right on social issues it would scare Marylanders (on rape and stem cells you could argue he's far more conservative from Bush). Him talking about issues and not personality can only hurt him.

Mark Plotkin: Maybe you're right, but I thought candidates want to get air time to make their case. I did a commentary about his inability to talk about issues and that he was just selling his persona. The Post profile today makes that point. He's well financed and the National Republican Party feels that he has a shot. I just don't think that African Americans are going to sit out this election, they dislike Bush too much and they know Steele is a Republican, even though he never talks about it. In another state that wasn't so heavily Democratic, he would have a better chance.

_______________________

Washington, D.C.: Hi Mark,

I'm glad that it's Tuesday so that we can have your thoughts on local political issues. Do you have more information about Mayor-to-be Fenty's decision to fire his 27 year old campaign spokesman, Alec Evans, as reported in today's Post by David Nakamura? Is Fenty looking for an older and more mature staff as he transitions from candidate to Mayor, or is this simply a case of a workaholic punishing perceived slackers?

Mark Plotkin: Adrian Fenty showed that he can be decisive when he needs to be. I'm not privy to his thinking on this issue, but his action does demonstrate that's he's not afraid to make tough decisions even if they involve people he's been very close to. I'm sure as time goes on he'll give a more thorough explanation. In the grand scheme of things, it really doesn't mean a lot. I'm much more interested in how he pursues issues and makes things happen in the District which the present mayor has no particular urgency about or strategy. Case in point- our colonial status.

_______________________

Chula Vista, Calif.: How much of a margin does Webb need in NOVA to win, also how big a margin did Gov Kaine have in NOVA.

Mark Plotkin: I think for a win by Webb, he needs to come out of Northern Virginia between 15 to 20 point margin. I can't remember exactly Kaine's margin, but it was considerable. Webb also needs to do well in the African American community and they are worried about his showing there. His statements on affirmative action and his lack of personal campaign skills in that environment. Doug Wilder the mayor of Richmond is withholding an endorsement, even though he's a Democrat. This game is getting very tiresome, but it probably has some impact. Webb originally was supposed to do well in Southwest Virginia and amongst rural white men. In the primary, ironically, he won because he did so well in Northern Virginia.

_______________________

Burke, Va.: Not bad, Mark. Only two references to your own favorite, pound-the-drum, irrelevant issue today. Colonial status, indeed. Probably below your average.

Mark Plotkin: I guess you're being sarcastic. I'm never going to let up. Never. It should offend you as an American and a believer in democracy as much as me. Would you want to be excluded intentionally from participation in America's legislative membership? I don't think so. There is a group of people, which I guess you belong to, that think it's insignificant and not important that 570,000 people are told they don't count.

_______________________

Washington, D.C.: What really is behind Adrian Fenty firing his spokesperson, Alec Evans, two weeks before the election?

Mark Plotkin: This firing will have absolutely no, I repeat no, impact on the election. Fenty will win with over 85 percent of the vote, maybe even 90. I'll be interested to see if he surpasses the total votes in a general election that Sharon Pratt Dixon got in 1990, when she received 144,000 votes, which was 86 percent of the vote to former Police Chief Maurice Turner who got a mere 19,000 votes, which was 12 percent of the vote. It seems amazing to me that Carol Schwartz the only elected Republican in the district refuses to endorse a member of her own party. You would think that she would have some empathy for the candidate , she's run for mayor four times and I'm sure is considering but another try number five.

_______________________

Washington, D.C.: Hi Mark,

Have I missed something or has Kwasi Mfume still not endorsed Ben Cardin for the open U.S. Senate seat in Maryland? Do you know what explains Mfume's glaring silence? If Mfume remains silent, do you think that leaves a glimmer of hope for Michael Steele to pull an election day upset?

Mark Plotkin: You're wrong. He waited a short while and then endorsed Cardin. During the primary, he constantly called Cardin his friend. Mfume did very well amongst African Americans, especially in Prince George's, getting 70 percent of the vote, but he told me he had to get 80 percent. He only lost by 20,000 votes and conducted a classy campaign. There is speculation that he'll run for mayor of Baltimore if O'Malley wins. The whole premise of the Steele campaign is that African American Democrats would be so upset that a white Democrat beat a black Democrat in a primary that they would sit home. Some will, but not enough in any way to alter the outcome. The Democratic Party has many black legislators in the state legislature. There are no black legislators in the Republican Party. Anthony Brown is black and Elijah Cummings and Al Wynn and Ike Leggett are all leading black figures who have been elected to office and are Democrats. The Republican Party in Maryland needs to recruit more black candidates to run for office, not just Michael Steele.

_______________________

Riverdale, Md.: Why are people so sure that O'Malley will do well in Baltimore County? I keep hearing that but I would have thought Ehrlich would have an edge there.

Mark Plotkin: Polls I have heard about confirm this. I think just by virtue of proximity, he's a familiar figure.

_______________________

Hampton, Va.: The recent poll is showing that Webb is leading Allen in the Hampton Roads by 5 points, and he's been spending a lot of time down here since the poll was actually conducted.

Mark Plotkin: Hampton Roads is a key area for Webb and he needs to do well there to win. Thanks for pointing out those poll numbers.

See you next week, one week before Election Day. Thanks for all of the questions and comments.

_______________________

Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.