Post Politics Hour

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Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

Washington Post congressional reporter Shailagh Murray was online Monday, Oct. 30, at 11 a.m. ET .

The transcript follows.

Political analysis from Post reporters and interviews with top newsmakers. Listen live on Washington Post Radio or subscribe to a podcast of the show.

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Shailagh Murray: Hi everyone! One week to go...is it just me, or has this year seemed especially eternal?

Lots of questions already so let me get right to them. And bring on your long-shot predictions.

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Waterville, Maine: Hi Shailagh,

Do you detect any shift, however slight, back to some GOP candidates in the past week? I have heard this on several blogs, but it doesn't seem to make sense on its face. At least 100 American troops were killed in Iraq this month (so far), the housing market has plummeted even further, and stem cell research initiatives are on several ballots. Could the GOP actually hold onto the House given such a climate? And do you think Jim Webb's immediate pushback on George Allen will be enough in that Senate race? Thanks for taking my questions.

Shailagh Murray: Hi Waterville. I think you're just being paranoid. I see very few bright spots for Republicans, and certainly in a mid-term election, it's much harder to change the momentum at the end, because we're not talking about a national election, but a bunch of local ones. That said, the Webb/Allen race is one of the few that I think could turn in the final days, based on events. Just because it's taken on such a weird life of its own.

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Arlington, Va.: If the Democrats take the house, is it a foregone conclusion that Nancy Pelosi will be the speaker? This will be a great strategy for the Democrats if they want to return the House to the Republicans in 2008.

Shailagh Murray: Yes, it's a foregone conclusion. And before all you Republicans get too excited at that prospect, here's a warning: don't put all your eggs in Nancy Pelosi's basket. She's not going to win the next election for you, it doesn't work that way.

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St. Paul, Minn.: Shailagh -- While I really enjoyed the Lynne Cheney/Wolf Blitzer bout on CNN the other day, on second look the whole thing looks more and more like a calculated move to churn up the base, who will as usual conveniently overlook the hypocrisy of it all. She had to know Blitzer was probably going to go there, and to me her indignation seemed a little contrived. What did you think?

Shailagh Murray: I think at this stage in an election cycle, absolutely everything is contrived.

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Ft. Myers, Fla.: I'm hoping Ford wins in TN, but if Ford loses by a wide margin - say 10 percent or so - can we finally just call the south racist? And will that put to bed any Condi talk?

Shailagh Murray: You can be certain that both Condi and Barack Obama are watching the Tennessee results very closely.

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Sewickley, Pa: Did you see Michael J. Fox on This Week with George Stephanopoulos? I'm no expert on Parkinson's Disease but the actor didn't seem to be faking symptoms. How do you see the continuing focus on Rush Limbaugh's allegations impacting the Missouri race and will there be an impact elsewhere?

Shailagh Murray: Rush Limbaugh's comments will not affect the Missouri race -- beyond providing voters there with a new insight into his...wisdom, so to speak.

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Seattle, Wash.: The Washington Post ran an article on Saturday about GOP Senator George Allen's attack on Dem Jim Webb's treatment of women in his novels. Is the Post going to run any stand-alone stories on Allen's refusal to unseal his divorce file and account for his unexplained 1970s appearance in court records?

Shailagh Murray: I'm getting a lot of questions about the Allen arrest warrants and I don't have any answers for you at this point -- but I hardly think it's fair to suggest we've taken it easy on George Allen. Come on, we exposed the guy as a bike thief.

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Campbell, Mo.: In Missouri, Jim Talent has gone extremely negative in the last week against Claire McCaskill. Do you believe this negative advertising in the races in Missouri, Tennessee, and Virginia will affect Independent voters or will just add to the disgust of the Republicans? By the way, great article in today's post about Karl Rove.

washingtonpost.com: Midterm Vote May Define Rove's Legacy , ( Post, Oct. 30, 2006 )

Shailagh Murray: Yes, that was a great article.

I don't know what to think about the negative ads. Most of these campaigns have been on the air for more than a year -- what more can you say, that voters will actually hear? On the other hand, these races are so close that you only need to sway a few thousand people to make difference. For instance, in Tennessee, that RNC ad featuring the naked blonde was not aimed at the general population -- it was aimed at conservative white men.

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Montgomery Village, Md.: Given the so called "Bradley effect"--Tom , not Bill, do you think that Ford and Steele are actually farther behind than the polls indicate. It nearly cost Wilder the governorship in Va. several years ago. Why would we think it is different today? Thanks.

Shailagh Murray: I just don't know if it's any different today. I grew up in 1970s Virginia - real Virginia, not northern Virginia -- when it was unthinkable that a black man could be elected governor. But then along came Doug Wilder in 1990. So things change in a hurry. States in the mid-South, in particular, are less culturally isolated than they were 20 years ago. So, with the Tennessee and Virginia Senate races, and also with Missouri, because Southern Missouri has similar types of voters, it's harder to pinpoint the critical mass anymore. Is it suburbanites? Rural evangelical Christians? We're going to learn a lot about these three states next week.

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Longshot Prediction: You asked for it: Kyl goes down in Arizona, as the Democratic wave is greater than anyone imagined. The state is trending Democratic and Kyl's job-approval numbers have never been high. Your opinion?

Shailagh Murray: Good one. Lots of Democrats around town are surprised at how durable Kyl has proven, but I don't rule anything out. For one, Arizona has contentious House races, so the Dems will be out in force.

Meantime, I'm posting this DSCC press release on the Virginia race:

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) today released new polling data collected over the weekend showing Jim Webb beating George Allen in the Virginia Senate race. Go to www.fudgereport.net to learn more about the brewing controversy over Allen's arrest records:

* Webb beats Allen by a five point margin (43-38). With leaners, Webb beats Allen by a four point margin (47-43).

* Bush's job approval numbers are terrible - 53% of Virginia voters disapprove of the job Bush is doing (45% strongly disapprove).

* Interestingly, the voters sampled in the poll said they voted for Bush over Kerry in 2004 by an eight point margin (50-42), a result that mirrors the actual margin Bush beat Kerry by in their presidential contest (54-46).

* The poll was conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group and surveyed 811 likely voters. It was conducted from October 26 through October 29 and its margin of error was +/-3.5%.

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San Jose, Calif.: Can you expand on your comment about exposing Allen as a having stolen a bicycle? This is the first I've heard about it.

Shailagh Murray: I'll have our Webmasters post the article...

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Dayton, Ohio: Should all candidates be forced to reveal everything about their divorce? What about the former wife and children? Do they need to be humiliated in public? Have people no decency left, after all?

Shailagh Murray: Decency? Look, we're living in an era when celebrities pose on national magazine covers to publicize their botched boob jobs.

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washingtonpost.com: An Ascent Shadowed By Questions on Race , ( Post, Oct. 26 )

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Canton, Ohio: Has there ever been a dirtier election in American history? It seems to be a national epidemic of dirty campaign ads.

Shailagh Murray: Actually, I think campaigns are probably less dirty than they used to be, because it's so hard to get away with anything. Ads are the most transparent forms of negative campaigning, because everyone sees them.

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Desert Hot Springs, Calif.: The IF game if you please: If the Democrats regain majority control of the Senate and If Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) is re-elected, will the Democrats allow an Independent Senator to become head of the Homeland Security committee or any other senatorial committee? I thought once you run as an independent you give up all of your Democratic seniority privileges.

Shailagh Murray: My understanding is that Liegeman will retain his seniority and will become HS chair if Dems win control of the Senate.

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Bel Air, Md.: I've got to wonder what keeps an "independent" voter from not committing at this point: this weekend I saw an interview with two non-committed women voters in Missouri who said they still haven't made up their mind? Are they being coy or what? In most races I've been watching, the candidates seem such polar opposites, I've got to wonder, what could they possibly be holding out for? No matter what side you are on, I have a difficult time understanding the dilemma at this point in the game -- you are right, this election season has seemed to go on forever!

Shailagh Murray: Tell me about it. These people confound me. Especially in races like that one, where you have pretty distinct candidates. A lot of these folks end up not voting, but some are also not happy with either candidate. Which makes them good targets for negative ads --they give you a reason not to vote for someone.

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Raleigh, N.C.: Let's hypothesize that the Dems have a good year, but not a great year. They pick up 20-25 seats, which is in the midrange of the guesses I've seen. In the Senate, the Dems pick up 4 seats, maybe 5.

What effect will this have on whatever moderate Republicans are left in the House? Will they be weaker due to their lower numbers, or stronger because they're, ya know, moderates?

Also, what effect would such results have on moderate Republican senators...the Maine women, in particular. And McCain, whose moderate/independent credentials seem to, um, ebb and flow.

Shailagh Murray: Under this scenario, I can see both parties moving away from the center. Remember, among the Democrats, the center right now is defined by how you voted on the Iraq war. And among Republicans, those moderates who do hang on, will be even more marginalized, because they'll be fewer in numbers. If a liberal like Sherrod Brown beats Mike DeWine in a state like Ohio, and a moderate like Lincoln Chafee loses even though he voted against the war, what does that tell you about the center?

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Pittsburgh, Pa.: Shailagh, thank you for taking questions. Do you think that Ed Rendell might run for president? Could the country warm up to a burly northeasterner? Or will he have to learn to drawl?

Shailagh Murray: If Ed Rendell crushes Lynn Swann, gets Casey elected, and delivers the House to the Democrats by defeating Republican incumbents in the Philly suburbs, he will have a ton of national clout.

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Chicago, Ill.: My longshot prediction: Hastert loses.

Shailagh Murray: I don't think he would mind, to be honest.

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Waterloo, Ontario: When will the electoral map of Texas be redistricted to comply with the Supreme Court ruling? Are there any plans in any of the other state to develop less gerrymandered districts?

Shailagh Murray: Folks, we could see six or seven new Democratic governors next week. Get ready for some payback.

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Minn.: Regarding whether campaigns are nastier than they used to be, I would like to point out that it's been quite some time since a candidate was killed in a duel.

Shailagh Murray: And there you have it.

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New York, N.Y.: Is this possible: Lieberman wins and the Democrats win or share control of the Senate, Bush fires Rumsfeld at Defense and replaces him with Lieberman, the Republican Conn. governor appoints a Republican replacement for Lieberman giving the Repubs the Senate.

Shailagh Murray: Of course it's possible. Anything is possible. Welcome to Washington, Sen. Alan Schlesinger.

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Lexington, Va.: What is the status of George Allen's arrest record while attending U. Va. Law School in the 1970s? Is it true that Allen's people have refused to release those records, if they exist?

Shailagh Murray: Here's some more from the DSCC on the Allen arrest records. They are, of course, a DEMOCRATIC version of events.

VA STATE BAR PRESSED TO RELEASE ALLEN APPLICATION DETAILING HIS ARREST RECORDS

Stonewall: Allen Refuses To Say Why He Was Arrested, Refuses To Release Documentation Detailing Arrests

With George Allen refusing to explain why multiple warrants were issued for his arrest, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee today asked the Virginia State Bar to release Allen's bar application. Allen would have had to explain the warrants on the application and its contents could be the only document shedding light on his arrests. A copy of the letter is below:

October 30, 2006

Virginia State Bar

Attn: Thomas A. Edmonds, Executive Director

707 East Main Street

Suite 1500

Richmond, Virginia 23219-2800

Dear Mr. Edmonds:

I am writing today to request that you make public the application Senator George Felix Allen submitted to the Virginia State Bar Association.

In the late 1970s, Mr. Allen applied to, and was subsequently admitted to, the Virginia State Bar. Mr. Allen's Bar application was submitted less than five years after two arrest warrants were issued in his name in Albemarle County, Virginia. Since the official arrest records have been purged, your organization may be one of a handful with official documentation regarding these arrests.

Mr. Allen's name appears in an Albemarle County court index from 1974 and a campaign aide claims Allen was arrested for unpaid parking tickets and fishing without a license. To date, though, Mr. Allen has refused to produce any written documentation verifying his explanation for why the warrants were issued and has not personally addressed the matter.

As such, we are asking that the Virginia State Bar immediately release Mr. Allen's Bar application on which he was asked about his arrest record. The application will shed light on whether Mr. Allen was arrested for unpaid parking tickets or for something much more severe like assault or battery.

With Mr. Allen suspiciously refusing to disclose the details of his arrests to the public, releasing this information may be the only way for Virginians to learn the truth about Mr. Allen's arrest record.

Thank you for your kind consideration and timely response.

Sincerely,

J.B. Poersch

Executive Director

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Cleveland, Ohio: I don't know who I am going to vote for yet......Because I don't drink the punch from either party. I decide who will do a best job for my state, after taking account of all issues. I vote for Dems and Repubs equally, and think both parties are corrupt and in need of change.

Shailagh Murray: I will close with a comment from an undecided voter in Cleveland. Please get back to me in two weeks with who you decided to support!

Thanks to all for participating and enjoy the ride over the next eight days...until the recounts and court challenges get underway. Cheers, Shailagh

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