Congo's Historic Vote

Despite Unrest Fears, Presidential Election Appears Peaceful

Caty Clement , Central Africa Program Director for the International Crisis Group , was online Monday, Oct. 30, at 2:30 p.m. ET to discuss Sunday's presidential elections in Congo, the first in more than four decades. The country had been plagued by unrest in the weeks before the vote, with escalating tension between the candidates and their supporters. Sunday's vote was peaceful for the most part, although a clear winner has not yet been declared. The United Nations has over 17,000 troops in Congo, more than anywhere else in the world.

Read more: Historic Vote in Congo Is Peaceful , ( Post, Oct. 30 )

The transcript follows.

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Chengdu, People's Republic of China: Concerning the Congolese candidates in this election: Is either candidate talking about the Congo's colonial past, i.e. Belgium, as a part of their political platform in this election?

Caty Clement: colonial history was a while ago. So its not the center of the campaign. However, it will pop up here and there. e.g., the issue of the Belgian EU commissioner

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Washington, D.C.: Based on the fact that the warlords (Bemba and Kabila) came out on top; it appears that the elections were structurally organized to produce such results. The very fact that there was a $50,000 deposit necessary to run for president and only 30 days given for campaigning in a country the size of western Europe, only those with millions of dollars they stole from the state were competitive. With the democratic and grassroots forces in the country being sidelined, do you envision a peaceful march towards democracy over the next five years?

Executive Director, Friends of the Congo

Caty Clement: A very interesting piece of research was done in the US by the Political stability task force on what makes democracies stable. The least important factor was the elections of the head of state. In fact the oldest democracy in the world, the UK, never elected its head of state. The most important were the checks in balances on the executive branch and particularly the role of the parliament. As it stands right now, donors who have contributed close to half a billion dollars to the elections plan to provide hardly no significant help to the new Parliament. Contrary to eastern Europe, donors appear reluctant to do so in most African countries. The DRC Parl needs support for the Parliamentary commission both financial and expert advice.

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Kinshasa, DR Congo: I live in Kinshasa and have been stunned by how quickly Kinois have rallied around Bemba, who just a few months ago was despised as a good-for-nothing, blood-letting rebel, who made it big because of Daddy's money. Now he's seen as the true Congolese nationalist who will protect Congo from foreigners like Kabila.

What does the national split among linguistic lines (Swahili vs. Lingala) say about the future unity of Congo?

How important is it that, if Kabila wins, he will live in a capital city that is hostile to him.

Caty Clement: The entire purpose of the two round electoral system is to prevent either of the candidates winning on the strength of their own ethnic electoral stronghold alone. While there was going to be a lot of free riding during the first round from all political forces, in order to win the second round both candidates had to make alliances. Kabila s score was modest in the West of the country which is why his alliance with Gizenga and Mobutu, both from the West, was so crucial.

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Kinshasa, Congo: Do you think there is any chance that Kabila, if he wins, would allow Bemba to join his government?

If not doesn't Bemba just go back to fighting in Kinshasa or in the jungles of Equateur?

Caty Clement: In an ideal democratic system, the leader of the loosing coalition (Bemba or Kabila) would become the leader of the opposition in parliament. The opposition coalition would survive the elections and be able to provide an effective check on the role of the executive. This being a new system, it is everyone s guess. Either you could have a grand coalition in Parliament and therefore gov which would leave little room for opposition or you have a strong opposition. But in order to do so, you need to make it worth being in Parl, donor support to the institution would be essential.

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Washington, D.C.: Is it true that the turnout in the east was very low? What are the implications of the low turnout in the east for the two candidates.

Caty Clement: Frankly, it is a bit early to know. Turnout in the referendum and the first round were rather high (except for the Kasais), above 80%, which would be any American candidate's dream.

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Washington, D.C.: The EU observer mission in DRC published a media analysis report showing that the incumbent seems to have been granted far higher exposure than JP Bemba. What's your opinion, having been on the ground there?

Caty Clement: Both candidates own their own media outlets, which tend to favor their owners. However, the national TV and radio, which is the only that broadcasts at the national level tended to lean heavily in favor of the incumbent president in first round. So it would not be a surprise if this were also the case in the second round.

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Takoma Park, Md.: I lived in the Kivus as a peace corps volunteer, and still keep in touch with a few people. As I hear it, the populace is disillusioned with the entire political class and has little hope that things will improve after the election. How hopeful are you? It seems like the best-case scenario is that the current crop of leaders agree to some power-sharing arrangement that allows them to continue to leech off the country's wealth.

Caty Clement: Given the very high turnout in the previous referendum and elections, it appears many Congolese see this process as a unique opportunity to move away from the past. It is true that both candidates were already in power in the past, but they both had to build alliances with new candidates (not part of the previous gov), the new political system is due to be decentralized, and if the national Parliament is adequately supported, there could be beneficial changes.

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Washington, D.C.: Many claim in the D.R.C that the international community orchestrated those elections in order to make sure that its preferred candidate, Joseph Kabila, win. Isn't there some true in this claim?

Caty Clement: If this were a set up, then it would an expensive one (half a billion $). It is true that the international community is perceived by many in Congo as favoring the incumbent, but in the end it is the Congolese who decide, not the donors. Hence the second round.

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Washington, D.C.: Some reports state that voter turnout was lower than during the first round. Which candidate is more likely to benefit from that?

Caty Clement: This depends on where the turnout (if it indeed were so) was lower. It seems to have increased in the Kasais, which would most observers believe tend to favor Bemba.

Caty Clement: In the first round, the East was Kabila's stronghold, the North-North West was Bemba's.

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Harrisburg, Pa.: What has been the history of voter fraud and intimidation in Congo? Who are votes conducted, i.e. paper ballot, and who counts and verifies the integrity of the balloting process?

Caty Clement: There are national and international observers as well as party witnesses. While international observers cannot realistically cover the entire country, civil society has mobilized on a much larger scale than in the first round to be able to post national observers within each of the country's polling stations.

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Germantown, Md.: Radio Okapi had publish this morning that in the voting center of Bumba, in the province of Equateur, the president of the center was caught filling the booth with pre-checked bulletins for the candidate J. Kabila. This started a riot that caused 1 dead and 3 wounded of which on died at the hospital... and many other irregularities. With such publication, how can you support the result of these election??? What has the international community, which has invested millions in these election, done??? Or is the international Community there to support J. Kabila???

Caty Clement: The fact that the CEI has come out about this on election day itself is a quite positive attempt at transparency. It is unrealistic to assume that these elections are going to be more perfect than in many western countries (think about the last Florida vote in the US). What matters is to take action upon allegations of fraud. Wheter there will be 'many' remains to be seen.

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Washington, D.C.: My question is with the constitution of the New Republic of the DR Congo that give the president the power to dissolve the parliament in case of conflict, and we all know that the country isn't peaceful yet. What guarantee there is the new president wouldn't dissolve the parliament to maintain his power? Beside embargo that the international community imposes for such behavior, what else can they do to prevent that? Thanks.

Caty Clement: This is a very good question. Yes, this is indeed within the Presidents powers. Today, the international community is providing substantial support to the Congolese state, giving it substantial leverage. However, should a true opposition platform emerge and should there be a stand off between the president and the parliament, it is anyone's guess whether the threat of stopping the aid flow would be sufficient. Donors are in a conundrum in these kind of situations, because the main victims of reduced aid are the poor Congolese, the average woman and man in the street. So it is a tool to use with restrain.

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Washington, D.C.: Why does the EU and Belgium in particularly want Kabila to win the election desperately? CNN already proclaimed that Kabila is expect to win the election. How can you expect an illiterate inexperience in politics and how is himself a rebel (Kabila) by all means and came to power through the murder of his vicious father's brutal death, in which he was indicated as the conspirator. Do you think this man has any idea of how to govern a vast country the size of Congo. It is clear to note that he has sold his country to the West for pennies while people suffer. With Kabila in power Congo will be set back 100 more years back into the dinosaur days. In the mean time the rich European will continue colonialism of exploiting resources. My question to the West is that they should really be proud of themselves by destroying this weak county?

Caty Clement: Although I am not sure I follow you on the first bit of your question, you raise an interesting issue, which is that of the corrupter being as guilty as the corruptee. Many of the companies involved in the country come from or have links to the West. While the Congolese state is weak, North American and European states are not. Therefore these should be taking action to impose best behavior practices on their own companies. This can be done through a variety of alleys. There is the Foreign anti Corruption Act which the US has adopted and which the OECVD has copied. There also is the export credits offered by many of the western states to their companies insuring them against political risks in dev. countries. YOU should push for the developed to take action and use these tools.

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Boston, Mass.: Once more this good elections process in 41 years was spoiled 2 days before its second round. Though both agreed on accepting the results, no matter who wins the elections,they failed to address the people of Congo through a Radio-TV cast debate last Thursday.

Q: What are the chances to the winner of this second round to put everyone to work (after-elections)if the population does not have any memory of the candidates' executive plans?

Q: Does democracy, after the 1st tour's irregularities, is going to bring a stable and prosper governance, with in one hand, armed-militias and on the other, a "demobilized" population that has been humiliated, while being invited to the polls without hearing a debate, as implemented by Congo's electoral laws?

Caty Clement: Not quite sure I understand the second half of your question, but concerning the first half concerning the programs of both candidates.... this is a real issue. It is not quite clear how both candidates are going to proceed to lift the country out of poverty. Point one is to increase resources. How that is going to achieved according to both candidates is not quite fleshed out.

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Petworth, D.C.: It's shameful that President Bush has not seen fit to comment publicly on the apparently successful Congolese elections. Sudan and Somalia are becoming havens for Islamic extremists and much of Africa is starved for the type of democracy President Bush is intent on forcing on Iraqis. The President's silence on Congolese democracy reinforces the open suspicion that the Administration cares only whether oil-rich nations elect their leaders.

Caty Clement: Let s face it the US cannot be everywhere, but given its current policy of promoting democracy, yes support for the new parliament would definitely be a plus. And this would have to be more than the mere training of 'MPs on how to do what MPs need to do'. See previous answer on role of Parl.

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Silver Spring, Md.: Are the E.U.'s troops still expected to leave Kinshasa at the end of November--and how worried are you that Kinshasa could erupt if they do? (Assuming Kabila wins but continues to be highly unpopular in the West.)

Caty Clement: The potential for violence should not be disregarded. Particularly in Kinshasa where both candidates have shown last August that they had both the means and the will to resort to violence. The international community does not want to become involved in a street battle in Kinshasa. They are best used as a deterrent force. The EU s step to increase its troop presence in town PRIOR to the elections was a very positive step, but leaving 10 days- a couple of weeks after the results are due is unfortunate. This is indeed going to be the most tricky moment in the electoral process. Therefore, it would indeed be a very welcome step to maintain the EU force in Kinshasa until the end of the electoral process (mid Jan) --> early February. Many observers have been calling for this and we need YOUR HELP to try to convince EU countries (particularly Germany) to do so.

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Silver Spring, Md.: One of the concerns of the Congolese people has been the lack of security in the capital and in the eastern part of the country. One of the candidates has hinted at bloodshed, should he lose the elections. Nkunda, in Northen Kivu, indicated to CNN that he was "an alternative" if the results of the elections did not produce peace in the country. The world knows what "alternative" he is. My question is the following: To what extent is the infamous international community committed to assisting the rag tag Congolese army in providing security to civilians, should Congolese warlords decide to boycott the results of the elections?

Thanks.

Caty Clement: Infamous and rag tag won t get you very far, I am afraid. Some level of trust in the actors is needed. Most of the attention today has been focused on the national elections rather than on Nkunda in North Kivu. There is no lack of urgent issues in the DRC, but these need to be prioritized. Ultimately, it is not only a question of means, but also of political will. The security issues country wide will no doubt have to be among the first issues to be addressed by the new institutions both through political and eventually military means.

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Caty Clement: Friends, thank you for your excellent questions. There is no lack of issues to be discussed in the Congo. You can make a difference too. First, by calling for support to the new Parliament in order to give it some teeth to bite when needed. In particular financial and expert support to the commissions. Secondly, by holding your governments accountable for supporting the companies that behave poorly in the Congo. Have a look at the amazing work by the Lutundula Parl. commission. Third, entice your country to provide support to security sector reform, the most prominent challenge facing the country today. Essentially providing the army with decent living conditions and providing adequate training to the top brass officers. The fish already start to rot from above. Finally, do not loose hope, the Congolese need you. So few care. Thanks for supporting them.

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Caty Clement: Friends, I am afraid I need to leave to my next appointment. Cheers, Caty

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