Washington Post Congressional Reporter Jonathan Weisman (Julia Ewan -- The Washington Post)

Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

Washington Post Congressional reporter Jonathan Weisman was online Friday, Nov. 3, at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest political news and The Post's coverage of politics.

Political analysis from Post reporters and interviews with top newsmakers. Listen live on Washington Post Radio or subscribe to a podcast of the show.

A transcript of the discussion follows.

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Jonathan Weisman: Well, could the political atmosphere get any worse for the Republicans? A prominent pastor is apparently unmasked by a homosexual prostitute. New allegations of wrongdoing erupting like brush fires. Yet some seats considered sure things for the Dems, like Tom DeLay's and Mark Foley's, are clearly in play. I can't wait for it to be over. So, let's get going. Shall we?

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Silver Spring, Md.: As soon as the Kerry comments happen one of the country's most influential evangelicals is caught in a gay prostitution scandal. Republicans just can't catch a break, can they? I guess at least the headlines aren't about Iraq today.

Jonathan Weisman: Ah, you caught the Haggard story. Wow, could it get any worse?

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Louisburg, N.C.: Is there a percentage of folks among the electorate that like to vote for the perceived winner? I have heard that this is true. If so, wouldn't this auger well for the Democrats?

Jonathan Weisman: Sure, it's called piling on. And that's why you see leads opening up in many races and new competitive races breaking out every day. George Bush is in Kansas and Nebraska, for goodness sakes. A new poll has a Democrat up in the House seat in Idaho!

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Silver Spring, Md.: So now Pastor Haggard has apparently admitted to some, but not all, of a male prostitute's claims. Considering that the claims are that Haggard paid for sex every month for three years and took crystal meth, I imagine even if he did some, and not all, of the claims -- that spells bad news. What is your take on this story? This is a man who is close to the Bush administration, was named one of the most powerful evangelicals in the U.S. by Time magazine and carries a LOT of political influence.

Jonathan Weisman: I think this may be very demoralizing for evangelical voters, especially in Colorado, where there are three competitive House races. It looked for awhile like two of those, Rep. Musgrave's and the seat being vacated by Joel Hefley, would be safely Republican. I'm not so sure anymore.

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Saint Peters, Pa.: So do you think Rick Santorum's defeat is really a done deal at this point? Can you see any concatenation of events that would swing the tide in his favor?

Jonathan Weisman: I hate to make bets, but besides DeWine's seat in Ohio, Santorum's has to be considered the surest thing for Democrats.

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Rennes, France: Isn't there an inconsistency when the White House criticizes Syria and Iran over alleged attempts to weaken Fouad Siniora's government in Lebanon, yet stubbornly refused to criticize Israel's actions there this summer?

Surely the reason Siniora is now so vulnerable has much to with those actions? And why does the WaPo describe him as US-backed - where was that backing in July?

Jonathan Weisman: Wow, jumping from allegations of homosexuality against an evangelical pastor to the Siniora government in Lebanon. What a challenge. Of course, there is inconsistency, but Hezbollah crossed the recognized 1967 border of Israel, killed Israeli soldiers and captured others. You can argue that the Israeli response was asymmetric, but you cannot argue that it was not provoked. And the aim was to attack Hezbollah, not Siniora. If the Lebanese government suffered damage, it was collateral. In Syria's case, that seems to be the aim of its intervention.

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Denver: In today's column Eugene Robinson noted how Bush's use of wedge and scare tactics (equating a Democratic win to support for terrorists for example) contrasts with the lofty, hopeful rhetoric associated with some of our great leaders. Do you think this has contributed to the decline in the number of people who perceive Bush as a good leader and his approval ratings?

Jonathan Weisman: Not really. People are fed up with the war in Iraq. Those that are angered by his campaign themes were already angry.

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Naylor, Mo.: I read that President Bush is going to be in Kansas today campaigning for Rep. Jim Ryun. I have not seen his name on any of the tight races. Is the GOP in more trouble than anyone thought if Bush is having to spend time campaigning in a very red state?

Jonathan Weisman: Nancy Boyda, Ryun's opponent, is making a real run. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has begun pumping money into the race. That said, it's something of a head fake. The DCCC starts messing with the Republicans' heads by expanding the field. As for Bush, he's running out of places to go.

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SW Nebraska: Male prostitute, eh?

Jonathan Weisman: I think he's still out there as a journalist, believe it or not.

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re: Haggard story: I find it hard to believe that he'd have resigned if he was innocent as he proclaimed. Such temporal power and influence, and give them all up?

Jonathan Weisman: I agree. Fellow pastors at his church have confirmed at least parts of the prostitute's story.

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Washington, D.C.: Despite all the negatives Republicans are facing, if the Democrats did not take the House or Senate, would the Party implode with liberals and progressives walking away from the centrists who control the Party now?

Jonathan Weisman: If they don't do well on Tuesday, there would have to be some real soul searching. But at least they've got John Kerry to blame now. (Seriously, I don't think you have to worry too much.)

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Washington, D.C.: Is it weird that they're putting your pictures up with the chats now?

Jonathan Weisman: Especially since I've lost a little weight since that shot. At least you know I'm real.

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Baltimore: Any thoughts on Arizona? What are the races shaping up like there?

Jonathan Weisman: Lots of thoughts on Arizona. I would say Jim Kolbe's seat is the clearest Democratic gain in the country. The Republican's anti-immigration message had real resonance with the core of the Republican vote and blew away his competition in the primary. But he overestimated its resonance with the larger electorate and gave Gabrielle Giffords a free ride to Washington. The Arizona Republic's endorsement of Harry Mitchell against J.D. Hayworth had to be a real jolt. The paper is very conservative and they called Hayworth a big, blustery bully. I would not be surprised if Mitchell pulled that one out, even though he is a very dull campaigner. (He has a very good ad up now.) Finally, Rick Renzi should be in real trouble, but I don't think he is. The federal probe of his land deal is real. My goodness, he pushed legislation boosting the value of his buddy and business partner's land just days before the guy sold it. But the same Arizona Republic that screwed Hayworth has been remarkably timid about pursuing the Renzi story. That lets him back to D.C.

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Arlington, Va.: The NYT has a front page story today about translated Iraqi documents confirming that Saddam's nuclear program was well under way and well hidden from the UN. Doesn't this story and these documents validate Bush's arguments for going to war (and Judy Miller's reporting)?

Jonathan Weisman: It will to some. It won't to most. The plans were on paper, but the troops never found the hardware. And the opposition to the war comes from the death count, not the pre-war arguments.

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Parkville, Md.: The problem with you media types is you always focus on the negative and that's the only reason Republicans are doing so poorly this time around. So, for example, take Rep. Don Sherwood in Pennsylvania. The guy beats his mistress, but he's not a closeted gay meth user. So which story do you think the media chooses to report? Bingo: you guys focus on the battered mistress story and ignore the story about him not being a closeted homosexual drug user. And now it's the same with evangelical Ted Haggard. The guy is a closeted homosexual meth user, but he's never been accused of beating his mistress. So what story do you guys focus on? You got it: the closeted gay drug user story, instead of the not-mistress beater story. See, it's all in the way the story is framed. And you liberal media types frame it to hurt Republicans.

Jonathan Weisman: Ummm, Don Sherwood is a Republican. Would you rather us be focusing on him?

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Mankato, Minn.: Any thoughts on 1st Minnesota? Is it really a toss up? Thanks.

Jonathan Weisman: I think Gutknecht still has to be favored. That's one of those races that may go Democrat if the wave is huge. Gutknecht doesn't have the baggage of allegations that others do, but Minnesota may be vulnerable to the national mood.

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D.C.: Is William Jefferson - the Louisiana congressman who had $90,000 in his freezer, going to get reelected? Is he in a close race?

Jonathan Weisman: Louisiana's system is weird. He has a lot of competitors, most of whom are Democrats. The top two vote getters will go to a runoff in early December. If, as is very unlikely, the second place finisher is Republican, and if Jefferson is indicted between now and December, the seat could flip. More likely, the seat either goes to Jefferson or another Democrat.

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The South: Outside of Tennessee, I haven't heard much about any blueing of the Deep South. Are there any potential gains for the Dems in Deep South (outside of the potential in Tenn.)?

Jonathan Weisman: The Republicans' best shot at pick-ups is in Georgia, two seats, in fact. The Democrats have a shot at two seats in North Carolina, especially Charles Taylor's seat. And they are likely to pick up Katherine Harris's House seat on the very conservative, very Southern panhandle of Florida. Is that a wave? Probably not. But there are in-roads. And don't forget Missouri, which has parts as southern as they come. If Claire McCaskill can win that Senate seat from Jim Talent, she has some real lessons to teach the Democrats.

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Houston: If the Democrats take both houses next Tuesday, whither the Republican Party? Will they move to the center to recapture the independent/moderates, or will they complete the purge of the moderates and go hard to the right, to recapture the base that put them in power in the first place?

Jonathan Weisman: The Democrats will have purged the party of many of its moderates. What would be left is likely to conclude that the GOP has not been conservative enough, has not been true to its small government, low-tax roots. So I'd say the truest conservatives will probably make a run for control of the party.

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Re: Iraqi Nuke plans: For the record, those plans were from even before the first Gulf War.

Jonathan Weisman: Okay.

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Seward, Neb.: How does giving Rumsfeld and Cheney a big vote of confidence help Bush and his chances to save a failed presidency just before the election? Does he not know when to just shut up?

Jonathan Weisman: I'm sure many Republican candidates would agree with your analysis.

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Concord, N.H.: I think you missed the sarcasm in Parkville's question.

Jonathan Weisman: I sure hope so.

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Washington, D.C.: I guess some people will always find the conclusions they are looking for but, in response to an earlier question, the Iraqi documents do not prove that a nuclear program was "well under way" in 2002. They come out of a much earlier program that had been ended in the 1990s. I think this story is more likely to remind us that, even after six years, it's still amateur hour at the White House.

Jonathan Weisman: Published as is.

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West Chester, Pa.: I'm a Democrat who was just as happy to hear Kerry's (mis)statement on Iraq. He was a terrible candidate in 2004 and would be equally bad in 2008. If this pushes him into the background I'm all for it.

And if Santorum somehow manages to win I'm moving to Fiji.

Jonathan Weisman: I do think Kerry hurt himself far more than he hurt anyone else.

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Naperville, Ill.: If you had to be in one candidate's headquarters on election night, whose would it be and why?

Jonathan Weisman: Great question. I'd say Harold Ford's. I don't think he's going to win, but if he does, that would be truly historic.

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Re: Parkville: That was a joke - no?

Jonathan Weisman: Hope so.

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Pittsburgh, Pa: Where is Dennis Hastert hanging out these days?

Jonathan Weisman: Aurora, Ill. He really hoped to be crisscrossing the country for GOP candidates, but Foley put him on the bench.

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Tenafly, N.J.: Any thoughts on the Menendez-Kean race? Menendez is ahead but can that only be because people are associating Kean with Bush, while he may, in fact, be a more viable representative?

Jonathan Weisman: I think New Jersey breaks Democrat even on good Republican years. There will be a lot of New Jerseyans that reluctantly vote for Menendez but will do so as a Bush protest. Kean put up a good fight. Menendez should have seen the hits coming but somehow didn't. But in the end, I have to believe in a Democratic year, New Jersey won't buck the trend.

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Pittsburgh, Pa: If the Democrats win the House who in your opinion comes out more clout-- Howard Dean or Rahm Emmanuel?

Jonathan Weisman: Rahm. They will dance with the guy who brung them, and the House Democrats see Rahm as their own.

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Harrisburg, Pa.: If there is going to be any "November surprise", isn't it now too late? I would think any spectacular move beyond this point would have to be seen as done purely for partisan reasons. Or could there be some major move over the weekend?

Jonathan Weisman: I woke up yesterday with no power in my house, for no apparent reason. First thought, we're under attack. Republicans win. Second thought, I hate the power company. It's too late for surprises, my friend. The vote is four days away.

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Pittsburgh: Is Kerry toast, er, ketchup as a Presidential candidate in 2008 after his "joke" gaffe? Which Democratic potential candidates will benefit the most from this?

Jonathan Weisman: I would say so. Tomato paste.

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Indianapolis: Could you talk about the races in Indiana, the RED state that seems to be turning purple!

Jonathan Weisman: That is an amazing story, but it has as much to do with Mitch Daniels as George W. Bush. You have two pretty bad campaigners, Hostettler and Chocola, finally hitting a campaign season that needed real skill and two good Democratic opponents. The one that might pull it out is Sodrel. He has a clever ad making his opponent, Baron Hill, sound like the incumbent, charging that Hill voted to send Indiana jobs to China. hat's a Democratic attack line, but hey, if it's a Democratic year, be a Democrat!

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Re - No to same-sex marriage but Yes to same-sex prostitution: Wasn't it Lenny Bruce who once said those who preach the loudest about others lack of morality usually have the most to hide?

Or something like that?

Jonathan Weisman: And those who preach morality have the highest price to pay for immorality. Republicans fume that the media has not made enough of Gerry Studds and his page playmate from years ago. But Gerry Studds never stood against gay marriage.

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Anonymous: If the Democrats win a majority in the House and Denny Hastert is re-elected to Congress, what role will he assume?

Jonathan Weisman: I would bet he goes to the back bench, spends a quiet couple of years tying up loose ends, then retires to the farm he bought in Wisconsin.

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Los Angeles: What effect, if any, do you think the Saddam verdict (due Sunday!) will have on the election?

Jonathan Weisman: None, except in the minds of paranoid Democrats.

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Meford, Ore.: I am a registered independent living in Oregon 2nd (not a key race), so far I have received about half-dozen calls from Republicans asking for my vote and none from Democrats. Is this why Republicans have done so well?

Jonathan Weisman: In part, yes. The Republicans are very good at getting out the vote. But the fact that they are making such calls in a Republican district on nobody's radar screen also indicates they are taking nothing for granted.

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New Hampshire: Jonathan, thanks for the chat.

Do you think that Senator Allen's latest Macaca moment (wherein his supporters attack a constituent for asking a question) will affect the Virginia race?

Jonathan Weisman: I do, and it's not good for Allen. Any stories that throw him off his game plan are bad, especially since he has stayed off his game plan the whole campaign.

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Re: Howard vs Rahm: What about Dean's 50-state strategy ? Isn't that paying off as Dems do well across the country (like Idaho, Montana, Arizona, etc.)?

Jonathan Weisman: I understand why Dean partisans want to give him credit. And he deserves some, certainly. But Dean and Rahm had huge fights about DNC money, and Rahm is the guy who tried to get the cash infusions into the House races. Dean wanted that money for long-term party building. I don't take sides here. I just think the chairman of the DCCC will get a lot of the credit from his colleagues.

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Austin, Tex.: Posters at a left-wing blog I read are extremely jumpy. They feared Kerry's gaffe was the end of the world. They are afraid the gay evangelist thing was a false accusation set up by Karl Rove to make the Democrats and the media look bad. (I don't quite get that, either.)

My question: Short of something really huge, like Bin Laden being captured or the whole Cabinet going on a drunken rampage and running naked through the Capitol, does any of that stuff really matter at this point?

Isn't the die pretty much cast?

Jonathan Weisman: Yes, the left is unbelievably paranoid and downbeat. It just shows how Karl Rove gets into their head.

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Oxford, Miss.: Will this be the end of Karl Rove's reign as GOP strategy don?

Jonathan Weisman: If he's wrong, he will be in trouble. If he's right, Katie bar the door.

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Adams Morgan, D.C.: How do you see the Sestak/Weldon race in suburban Philadelphia?

Jonathan Weisman: Poor Curt Weldon. His new ad pleads with voters to give an old friend a chance. That is not a good sign. I think he is now the most vulnerable Northeasterner.

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Paranoid Democrats!: We will stop being paranoid when you stop dismissing our serious concerns as evidence of paranoia. Dis-conundrum THAT.

Jonathan Weisman: Boo!

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Gettysburg, Pa.: CQ is predicting that no incumbent Dem for Senate, House or governor will lose on Tuesday, which would be the first time that ever happened. Do you agree that this is likely?

Jonathan Weisman: John Barrow in Georgia could be the victim of redistricting. And Melissa Bean in Illinois has a Republican district and an independent challenger on her left. That said, I still think they both pull it out. That would be a clean sweep.

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George Allen: Wait, Allen had a game plan?

Jonathan Weisman: Oh George, of course you did.

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NY, NY: Is this whole Ted Haggard thing a step back for the Religious Right or a step forward for homosexual awareness in society? Can it be both?

Jonathan Weisman: We shall see. Maybe Ted Haggard holds a "I am a gay American" press conference, begs forgiveness and becomes the first openly gay evangelical pastor of a megachurch. Or, maybe not.

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New York, N.Y.: I have a suggestion for the Democrats to issue an ad:

"If you vote Republican, the entire government will be run by closeted gays!"

Jonathan Weisman: Please don't.

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Re: Paranoid Democrats: You can understand why that's the case, right?

Jonathan Weisman: Sure. But after all this fear over Diebold machines, it turns out Venezuela could have just as much influence!

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To Arlington, Va., from Claverack N.Y.: I Web-posted my plans to build a rocketship to the moon out of Dixie(TM) brand paper cups. By your logic, I just proved I'm an astronaut.

Jonathan Weisman: Didn't you?

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Cincinnati: I agree with you that things look bleak for DeWine in Ohio. He has been tarred, unfairly, by the Ohio statehouse follies of the last three years. I am still amazed that Brown has gone this far because he seems like such a boob. Has he done anything in Congress other than be a sure partisan vote?

Jonathan Weisman: He made a name for himself for opposing trade agreements and being a real thorn in Clinton's side on trade policy. That works in swaths of Ohio, no?

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Follow-up on Pittsburgh question: Which potential 2008 Democrat candidates do you think benefit the most from the Kerry "joke" gaffe?

Jonathan Weisman: Everyone other than Kerry. But really, did Kerry really have a shot?

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Oxford, Miss: I guess I don't really understand what effect this Pastor Haggard scandal is going to have on individual congressional races. Can you unpack this for me? Is the idea that it will demoralize conservative religious voters and keep them at home?

Jonathan Weisman: Haggard is very well know in Colorado, where there are three tight House races for Republican seats. If evangelicals feel demoralized, like they can't trust even their own leaders, they may just stay home. I find it hard to believe it goes much further than Haggard's base, however.

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Haggard : Has he checked into rehab yet?

Jonathan Weisman: And was there a priest in his childhood?

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Arlington, Va.: Away from the issues, is there any evidence that voters are reacting differently this year (than past years) to the commercials that use fear and/or just slander the opponent ?

Jonathan Weisman: I think the difference might be that opinions are so strong this year that no amount of TV ads can shake them.

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Chicago: How will this Ted Haggard gay-sex scandal affect the GOP's evangelical turnout? There are quite a few examples of this type of pure hypocrisy on the right e.g. Foley, Sherwood, DeLay, etc. Combined with the Kuo book, if I were a evangelical voter I'd be pretty cynical right now...

washingtonpost.com: Gay Sex Allegation Sidelines Haggard (AP, Nov. 3)

Jonathan Weisman: See two earlier answers.

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Silver Spring, Md.: Why is there so much reluctance to increase the minimum wage? Is this going to be a major issue during this election?

Jonathan Weisman: It could be big in the dozen or so states that have minimum wage ballot measures. They bring out Democratic voters and fire up union households. Most Republicans honestly believe the minimum wage is anathema to a free market system that sets wages on supply and demand for labor. Even when moderate Republicans were begging for a clean minimum wage vote, that conservative faith was not shaken.

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Baltimore.: You guys always say that negative ads work but I'd like to tell you that I'm sick of them. In Baltimore, I'm seeing ads from O'Malley saying Ehrlich is beholden to special interests and that O'Malley is mayor of a violent city and look at how bad Baltimore is, and on and on. Well, crap. Ehrlich is governor of the state of Maryland and he's bashing its largest city. Anyway, I like Baltimore a lot and it drives me crazy when people like Ehrlich play on surbanites' fears of "the city." It's all a little coded, too, don't you think? Do you find that anyone else tired of the fear-mongering and the bruise-poking that always goes on in these things? Thanks.

Jonathan Weisman: Hey, I don't watch them. I'll turn on the TV again on Nov. 8.

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New Hampshire: Hi Jonathan.

I am wondering if you think that the explosive NYT front page story about the U.S. Web site that was, in effect, a nuclear primer will have any effect on the election on Tuesday?

I have serious concerns that this may have damaged our national security and that the Republicans in Congress and the administration overrode John Negroponte's protestations for political cover and gain with regard to the Iraq war.

Jonathan Weisman: I don't. It's an interesting story but a little arcane for most voters, and it doesn't have a direct impact on any race in particular.

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Dallas: It appears that the African-American vote can tilt the election to Dems in Tenn, Mo., and VA. Have these candidates targeted these voters? I would think the Dems could exploit issues like the Katrina debacle to their advantage.

Jonathan Weisman: You know, I haven't seen a huge new effort to energize the black vote. Of course, in Tennessee, I think a huge African-American turnout is in the offing. A black Senator from the south would really be something. Traditional Dem campaign strategy in Missouri is about turning out minority voters in St Louis and Kansas City, but the Democrats have really focused on breaking the Republicans' stranglehold of the smaller cities and rural areas. And I've been surprised how little Katrina has been played up in TV ads.

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Syracuse, N.Y.: What do you think about NY-25? The NRCC and the DCCC just dropped over $700,000 on the race. It seems like Dan Maffei is really surging.

Jonathan Weisman: Dan and I go way back, since I used to be a tax policy reporter and he worked press for the Ways and Means Committee. When he told me he was running against an appropriations committee cardinal, Walsh, I laughed. But wow, things look bleak for the Republicans in upstate New York. If Maffei pulls this one off, I think it will be the most significant defeat of the campaign for Republicans -- unless McNerny in California can knock off Resources Committee Chairman Richard Pombo.

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Baltimore: I didn't know you were so cute. Skip the Post radio and go to TV!

Jonathan Weisman: Mom, I didn't know you moved to Baltimore!

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K St. (almost): Can we trust the polls? I screen my calls and I'm sure a lot of other 30-somethings do too. Are the polls made up disproportionately of old people who still have landlines?

Jonathan Weisman: Don't trust the polls!

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Washington, D.C.: Quick question. Who at the Washington Post decides who the paper will endorse? Is this a group decision or does it come from one person. I am just curious about the process.

Jonathan Weisman: The editorial board gets together, maybe a dozen people, and hashes it out. Reporters and editors in the newsroom have no say whatsoever.

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Jonathan Weisman: Okay, signing off. Great chat everybody.

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