Washington Post Chief Political Reporter Dan Balz (Julia Ewan -- The Washington Post)

Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

Washington Post chief political reporter Dan Balz was online Monday, Nov. 6, at 11 a.m. ET .

The transcript follows.

Political analysis from Post reporters and interviews with top newsmakers. Listen live on Washington Post Radio or subscribe to a podcast of the show.

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Dan Balz: Good morning to everyone. Nervous people all around the country today: Republicans nervous that they may lose the House and possibly the Senate. Nervous Democrats who see national polls tightening. Many Senate races still too close to call. Lots of House races the same. We've got a lot of questions already in the basket and more coming as we start. Thanks for participating.

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Albany, N.Y.: Several serious political gurus are reporting a sharp shift towards the Republicans in recent polling, particularly in the Senate races in Maryland, Montana and Tennessee. Any idea what's happening? Is this mostly a local thing or is it broader? What's driving it--surely not Senator Kerry's case of foot-in-mouth disease?

Dan Balz: There are three polls out in the last two days that show some movement toward the Republicans. This is based on the so-called generic House question, which asks people how they plan to vote -- Republican or Democratic -- in House races, but does not name specific candidates. The Post-ABC poll among likely voters showed Democrats with a 6-point advantage, down from 13 points two weeks ago. USA Today/Gallup had it at 7 points, also about half of what it was, and Pew had Democrats with a 4-point advantage, another big drop from a few weeks ago.

What does this mean? Two things seem consistent in the three polls. Independents are not quite as strongly Democratic as they were earlier in their House voting intentions and Republicans are more enthusiastic about participating than they were.

This suggests that the Democratic gains will be smaller than it looked a few weeks ago, but beyond that it's very difficult to quantify. The national generic translates somewhat unevenly to individual House races. But these polls are the reason there is nervousness among the Democrats.

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Pasadena, Calif.: I'm not seeing any news coverage of Republican robocalling schemes. In New Hampshire there may actually be state laws being violated. Why aren't these tactics getting fuller coverage?

Dan Balz: There are a number of complaints from Democrats about this and we're looking into it. That said, robo calls are very common -- one reason is they're extremely inexpensive -- and often are as negative as they are positive.

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Claverack, N.Y.: Good morning Dan. Intense days for poli-junkies, no?

Kind of bewildered by all the buzz out of Rhode Island over a single poll showing Chafee with a miniscule and statistically insignificant lead. Every other recent poll I'm aware of shows Whitehouse well ahead and Chafee floundering between 40 and 42.

Is it possible reporters are simply over-excited about a potential comeback story, or are you hearing from the campaigns there's real movement going on?

Dan Balz: The Republicans were saying last week that the Rhode Island Senate race was one to watch. For a month or so, that was one of four that experts on both sides thought was heading for a Democratic pickup but it has tightened. One reason is that Sen. Chafee has started to attack Sheldon Whitehouse. Chafee is no friend of the administration, but the president's approval rating is the lowest or among the lowest in the nation in Rhode Island.

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Rochester, Minn.: Good Day and thanks for these fun and informative chats.

What, if anything, do the Democrats have planned for those of us who have have been voting Dem, but really are more "ex-Republicans" than "true Democrats"? In other words, I have been voting Dem because I have been repulsed by what the Republicans have become, not due to any idea or ideology the Dems have presented?

Thanks much!

Dan Balz: House Democratic leaders have an agenda of items they say they will make their first priorities, among them an increase in the minimum wage, allowing the federal government to negotiate with the drug companies over prices for Medicare recipients, implementation of the 9/11 commission recommendations, etc. If they retake the House tomorrow, that's where they'll start.

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Washington, D.C.: Dan, I'm a Democrat who's worried about the recent "comeback" that Rs are undergoing. Is this mainly solidifying the base or do you see evidence, as George Stephanopoulos does, that some independents are being swayed too? Besides Tennessee, which Senate race would be most affected by a Republican comeback in the polls? Is there anything to look for as evidence of this between now and tomorrow?

Thanks,

Worried Democrat

Dan Balz: George Stephanopoulos and we at the Post were looking at the same numbers, since the two organizations poll together. The Post-ABC poll showed a drop in independent support for the Democrats, although they still tilt heavily toward the Democrats.

All the close Senate races are likely to be affected by late shifts in voter sentiment: Tennessee, Virginia, Missouri, Montana, Rhode Island. Some say Maryland as well.

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New Orleans, La.: Speaking of polls, during the same time period as the Gallup, Washington Post/ABC and Pew polls, the CNN and Newsweek polls show a spread in favor Dems of +20 and +16 respectively. How accurate have any of these polls been in the past few elections? How about a poll report card, with an A for those that have been extremely accurate and a F for those that have failed to reflect true voter sentiment?

Dan Balz: That's a good idea. The generic House question is not a perfect indicator of how many seats a party will win or lose. I can't explain the CNN and Newsweek polls, which continue to show it that large. That's a huge margin and would suggest a very big Democratic gain in the House. Based on an analysis of close races, we said on Sunday Democrats can count on a minimum of about 10 seats and there were another 30 that we rated as tossups.

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Arlington, Va.: Could it be that the generic polling is starting to "synch up" with the specific races as election gets closer. These generic polls didn't really mean much anyway as the Republicans always said.

Dan Balz: Well, the problem is, it may be syncing up or may not be, depending on which national poll you choose to look at. Certainly it's correct that the generic number has received a huge amount of attention this year but that the individual district polls are more telling. However, some of those district polls are done by reliable polling organizations, but not all. Not all polls are created equal.

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Bethesda, Md.: Bill Clinton is everywhere in these last few days: Virginia, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, New Jersey, Michigan, Upstate New York, Arizona, Nevada etc. (Meanwhile Republican candidates make up excuses not to be seen with George W. Bush). Can you recall an ex-president who has been such an active campaigner? After all, ex-presidents are usually old men (Ike, Reagan, G.H.W. Bush) or unpopular figures (Carter, Nixon). Clinton is neither.

Dan Balz: Clinton is everywhere, you're right. In a lot of states, Democrats are calling on him to generate more turnout among African Americans, but he's campaigning across the country. But some other Democrats are very active as well, among them Sen. Barack Obama. On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain, Rudy Giuliani and Laura Bush seem to be the most active -- and welcomed in places the president is not.

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Chicago, Ill.: With the apparent late firming of undecideds in favor of the Republican ticket, shown by polls released today, isn't it fair to wonder if many of those undecideds weren't really Republican leaning voters from the outset? Wouldn't it be useful if the pollsters asked such undecided voters which party they voted for in the last election? Such information might be useful in predicting which way the voter is likely to fall when he/she finally makes a decision on the candidates.

Dan Balz: Asking people how they voted in the last election produces bad numbers. If you ask people how they voted in the last presidential election, usually you find more people saying they voted for the winner than the winner's percentage actually was.

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Hastings-on-Hudson, N.Y.: Over the past week or so, a number of polls have given Corker a double digit lead over Ford, in Tennessee, yet the Fix's graphic still shows none of the competitive Senate races leaning Republican. What gives? Wishful thinking?

Dan Balz: The Mason-Dixon poll had Corker's lead at 12 points but the USA Today/Gallup showed it at about 3. It may have moved toward Corker and we'll take another look for final ratings on the Countdown Tuesday morning.

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Michigan: Maybe I'm just paranoid but I fear that these new polls showing Dems with a smaller lead are just being publicized as a ploy by the GOP to make it seems like things are favourable for them and thus increase the Republican vote as some voters tend to vote who think they will win. Or am I just being cynical?

Dan Balz: You're just being cynical.

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Pittsburgh, Pa.: As the election nears, races are tightening, some in favor of Republicans. This thing seems to occur every election cycle just prior to the big day. What's the cause? Undecideds finally making up their minds? Successful get-out-the-vote campaigns?

Dan Balz: The size of the Democrats' lead in the generic has been very large all through the fall. One thing that may be happening is the Republican coalition finally has begun to coalesce. Normally that would have happened earlier -- usually it's the Democrats who have trouble keeping their coalition together and energized -- but there are clearly divisions among Republicans that have made that more difficult this year. Republican officials think that, perhaps, rank-and-file Republicans have pushed those to the sidelines and are thinking more about their fear of Democrats taking over the House and maybe the Senate. But the GOP coalition is still fractured.

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Erie, Pa.: Intriguing that Republicans who have spent the last two months telling everyone to ignore the polls are now pointing to them as evidence of a surge. Your thoughts?

Dan Balz: It's not surprising given the circumstances. Some Republican officials have said ignore the polls because as election day nears, things will get better for their party. Maybe that's what is happening, but this is still an unhappy country.

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Burke, Va.: CNN's poll numbers seem to showing the momentum switching back to the Democrats again. Maybe it's Haggard having an effect.

Also the complaints about robocalling is not that the Republicans are robocalling, but they are trying to seem as if they are Democrats harrying people with repeated calls - sometimes up to six or more calls.

Dan Balz: CNN shows a greater margin for the Democrats today than a week ago. I don't know whether the Haggard resignation has affected their survey.

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Rockville, Md.: Although I consider myself a political junkie, I haven't willingly watched a campaign ad on TV in years. Most people I know would say the same thing. So, how are the huge expenditures justified, in our age of MUTE buttons, remote controls, and TIVO's?

Dan Balz: TV ads are less effective but still effective. Viewing habits are very fragmented, which means it takes more volume to break through. But TV still represents the biggest portion of any major campaign budget.

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St Paul, Minn.: Dan -- What impact do you see late-breaking events having on the election -- in particular, Haggard, Saddam, the call today in military newspapers for Rumsfeld to be fired? Also, Cheney said yesterday that no matter what, the WH's approach to Iraq won't change. Can the Dems make anything out of that at this late date?

Dan Balz: The Democrats are trying to close the campaign on the issue of Iraq, which remains the dominant issue of the campaign. Those voting primarily because of Iraq are tilting toward the Democrats. There is so much noise and news at the end of this campaign that I wonder how much voters are focusing on any particular incident. Does the guilty verdict in the Saddam Hussein case have more impact (and in what way) than calls in military newspapers for Rumsfeld to leave?

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Seattle, Wash.: I think you should revisit the robocall question. The GOP is paying for robocalls that are ostensibly from Democrats and that repeat multiple times with the only purpose of annoying the caller.

Not only is this behavior despicable, but it's also illegal in many places. These last-minute tactics should be exposed as the dirty tricks they are and not, as you suggested, politics as usual.

Dan Balz: They are getting exposure, particularly in the states where they are taking place. Rep. Charlie Bass in New Hampshire has asked them to be taken down. Some people are highly offended by these, others say they are not materially different from what campaigns have done in the past. We're trying to make sense of it.

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Arlington, Va.: Here we are, the day before the 2006 election, and looking into the future.

Mr. Balz, if John Negron of Florida manages to win the Foley seat, and if Sekula-Gibbs is able to win the write-in race for DeLay's seat in Texas, would you conclude there is a chance for the Republicans to hang on the control levers of the House? And would you tell the readers what the Democrats would do if they only have the 218 majority? Is it payback or gridlock? Will anything be accomplished with such a slender majority? Thank you.

Dan Balz: Republicans could win those two seats and still lose the House, although the tide would not be as large as some earlier predicted.

If Democrats emerge with a tiny majority, I would foresee gridlock -- unless the leadership on both sides and President Bush decide to operate in a way totally different from what we've seen the last five or six years.

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Those polls: Tak a close look at the fine print. Suddenly the base percentage breakdown between Dems/Reps/Indys changed to a mix more favorable to the Reps. Thus your difference and "tightening".

It's akin to saying "there is a noted increase in meat consumption by Americans", while ignoring that the pollster reduced the percentage of vegetarians by 20% in his survey sample.

Dan Balz: It's more complicated than that, and because I'm not a pollster I will not try to provide the methodological reasons. But these final polls are based on "screens" for likely voters, and that can mean more Republicans or Democrats than if you simply use a sample of registered voters. But it's not done arbitrarily.

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Richmond, Va.: The Democrats have recruited a number of conservative candidates who sound more like Republicans i.e. Heath Schuler in NC and a couple in Southern Indiana. If they win and the Democrats wind up with only a 5 or 6 seat majority in the house how is Nancy Pelosi going to keep them in line?

Dan Balz: If your scenario becomes reality, Rep. Pelosi will have a challenging management assignment. The Democrats slated to take over major committees represent the Old Guard and in many cases are from the liberal wing of the party. As you suggest, many of the recruits this year fit their more conservative districts. Pelosi has suggested to centrists that she will take their views into account in formulating party priorities.

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Washington, D.C.: Please give us some insight into YOUR evening, tomorrow. Will you have 5 TV monitors, 3 computers, 4 telephone lines, etc. and what time do you expect to go home Tuesday night?

Dan Balz: I don't expect to go home "Tuesday night." My hope is to get home briefly on Wednesday morning before Washington Post Radio beckons at 7 a.m.

I wish I had 5 TV monitors and 3 computers. But we have plenty of people helping to monitor results. It will be chaotic and occasionally nerve-wracking, but Election Nights are always fun.

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Dunn Loring, Va.: I heard a political "expert" over the weekend say that if the incumbent is at 47 percent or below just before election day then he hasn't "made the sale" and the undecideds will usually vote for the challenger. Is this true?

Dan Balz: That is often the case but we've seen examples to the contrary. In 2000, undecided voters broke more toward Al Gore than George W. Bush, to the surprise of the Bush team.

Part of this has to do with the effectiveness of get-out-the-vote operations. In a close election, they can affect the composition of the electorate and in a country where Republicans and Democrats now line up 90-10 or better for candidates from their party, getting more Rs or Ds to the polls can have a big impact.

The other question about undecided voters is whether they actually make up their minds and show up on Election Day or just stay home.

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Gridlock: is not a bad thing. Last time I checked, we had a government of checks and balances, with the legislative keeping a close eye on the executive (and vice versa). That hasn't happened for five years. And we need a strong dose of it.

Dan Balz: Checks and balances are important. Gridlock results in the absence of action on important issues. I think there's a big difference.

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Athens, Ga.: Dan, on election night we will undoubtedly hear at least one (more likely several) loser tell his supporters (to groans and boos) that the winner is really an ok guy/gal and we will be ok. The problem is the politicians are professionals and know it's just part of the game. But average people have a hard time letting go of the hatred that has been instilled in them by the campaign. What, if anything, can be done about this?

Dan Balz: This is a question that really should be turned around and asked of all Americans, because it goes to what kind of country everyone wants. Campaigns contribute to partisanship, but partisanship contributes to the negativity of campaigns. This is a very divided country and both sides understandably blame the other for much of the problem. But until voters demand a different kind of politics, this isn't likely to change.

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Grinnell, Iowa: Here in Iowa , we have 4 Republicans and 1 Democrat in the House; if polls are to be believed, after tomorrow, we'll have 3 Democrats and 2 Republicans. That's quite a shift! (Also likely: a Democratic governor). My question: are there other states like Iowa that are likely to see such a dramatic swing in House representation? Or is it more a case of a few seats here, a few there in most states?

Dan Balz: Democrats are counting on real gains in Iowa tomorrow, although at this point the Democrats I've talked to see a gain of 1 House seat -- most likely in the 1st District. The 2nd District has voted Democratic in presidential elections, but Republican Rep. Jim Leach has managed to hang on in spite of the tilt of the district. Most Democrats believe he will do so again tomorrow.

Ohio is a state where larger changes are anticipated. The governorship and Senate seats are likely to switch and several House seats may as well. Pennsylvania could see significant changes. In Connecticut, three incumbent Republicans are in tough races. New York has a bunch of GOP seats at risk. But we don't know whether Democrats will gain a few or a lot in those states -- or perhaps just one or none.

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Lyme, Conn.: We are getting barraged with phone calls from the North Carolina Democrats here in Connecticut. Am I to presume from this discussion that these are not misdirected calls from the North Carolina Democrats but calls from the Republicans to make me annoyed at the Democrats?

Dan Balz: I don't know what has caused that. Thanks for letting us know.

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Dan Balz: Thanks to everyone for sending in questions. We're out of time for today but keep checking our web site for updates and tune in every day at 11 for more chatting. Have a good Election Day!

Dan Balz

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