Robert G. Kaiser
Washington Post Associate Editor
Tuesday, November 7, 2006
8:00 PM
Washington Post associate editor Robert G. Kaiser was online Tuesday, Nov. 7, at 8:00 p.m. ET to discuss the midterm elections live as polls close around the country.
The transcript follows.
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Robert G. Kaiser: Good evening and welcome to an election night discussion of what may be an historic election. And of course it may not.
Just as happened four years ago, we have a lot of early exit polls that may be flawed. I won't get into great detail now, but we'll come back to the exit polls through the night. The ones we have now suggest the Republicans have a lot to be nervous about tonight. But it's too soon to go farther than that.
This will be a long chat; I'll keep going as long as I can. I will take breaks, however, both to acquire new data from around the newsroom here, and also to tap into the wisdom of my colleagues.
I hope many of you will offer your own commentary as returns come in through the night. And all questions are welcome.
I also recommend that you check in with my colleague Chris Cillizza, author of The Fix, whose blog will also keep going all through the night. You can find it here:
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Corona Del Mar, Calif.: Assuming the Dems take over the House or Senate or both, how in the world can George W. Bush ever expect their cooperation after trashing them as terrorist sympathizers?
Robert G. Kaiser: We're NOT yet assuming this or anything else, but your question is a good one. Bush the "uniter not a divider," long promised, has not been seen since the weeks after 9/11. If he were to try to become a uniter now, I think a lot of Democrats would be deeply skeptical.
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Washington, D.C.: Love these chats! What do you think of Va. Senate with 12% precincts reporting showing Allen at 55% to Webb 44% on CNN Pipeline. Meaningless?
Robert G. Kaiser: Yes meaningless. The exit polls we have suggest Webb is doing much better than that.
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Alexandria, Va.: What do you think is going to happen to William Jefferson in Louisiana?
Robert G. Kaiser: I'm not betting any money on him.
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Annapolis, Md.: Even if the Democrats do very well will it have any material effect on the war in Iraq?
Robert G. Kaiser: Regular readers of my chats know I am a reluctant seer. Making predictions makes me nervous, and my record is bad enough that I would urge you to ignore any slip-ups I may make--by offering a prediction, that is.
That said, I would urge you not to think that the U.S. has the ability to control what is going to be happening in Iraq. The Iraqis will decide the fate of the war, and of that country. I have the strong sense that Bush will have to do something new and different about Iraq after this election, no matter what it produces in the House and Senate. As Sen. John Warner said weeks ago, we are not making any progress in Iraq; it's going "sideways," was the way Warner put it. But it may be worse than that; the internecine conflict appears to me to be worsening.
So I think the answer to your question is, probably not.
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Arlington, Va.: I think it looks good for Webb. With 27% of VA precincts supporting, Webb and Allen are exactly tied right now -- and the way Virginia results come in, the southern parts of the state report earlier in the night, which means Webb is going to break away with it later tonight. Just watch and see...
Robert G. Kaiser: And now Webb is slightly ahead...
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Virginia Beach, Va.: You mentioned early exit polls showing Webb doing much better. What have you heard?
Robert G. Kaiser: That Webb is doing well, but not yet decisively well.
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Hershey, Pa.: Do you think that it's going to be like 2004, where the Republican voter turn out sweeps the races?
Robert G. Kaiser: I don't.
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College Park, Md.: Is it true that there were polling stations in PG County passing out sample ballots that listed Ehrlich and Steele as Democrats? How big an effect could that actually have?
Robert G. Kaiser: There was a new, controversial piece of Ehrlich literature passed out today that Democrats will say was misleading. There will be a Post story on this, and I hope we can post a link to it here sometime later in the evening.
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Miami, Fla.: What do you think about Yarmuth beating Northup in KY-3?
Robert G. Kaiser: If indeed Yarmuth has defeated Anne Northrup, this is very good news for the Democrats. Here's what we have on this now:
Ky. U.S. House District 3
Candidate Votes %
John Yarmuth (D) 86,969 50
Anne Northup * (R) 83,415 48
Other 1,982 1
Key: * Incumbent | Red Checkmark Winner
Precincts: 74% | Updated: 7:43 PM ET | Source: AP
This was not even one of the high hopes of the Democrats; it's a sign that in Kentucky, at least, this is a strong Democratic year. But note, only 74% of precincts have reported. Stay tuned. Use the map on our home page and you can follow the results coming in yourself. It's a cool map.
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New York, N.Y.: What are your reporters telling you about the Republican leadership: 1. if by some miracle they hang onto the House, or 2. they lose it?
Thanks so much for the chat.
Robert G. Kaiser: Too soon to answer questions like these. Obviously, 1) would produce much different outcomes than 2).
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Stone Mountain, Ga.: Is there any reason to think Rick Santorum can end up saving his seat?
Robert G. Kaiser: Not much reason.
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washingtonpost.com: Key Races: Governor
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Cincinnati, Ohio: With the House likely to shift majority, the most interesting contests are in Senate. From this standpoint, can you share the reading/exit poll data for the toss up or close races (VA, NJ, RI, TN, MO,etc.) - with all the necessary caveats on such data...
Robert G. Kaiser: The Post decided not to pay the steep fees for state by state exit polls. I think our attitude has been colored by the bad exit polls of recent years. It's hard to justify putting significant amounts of our newsroom budget into things that so often prove wrong. So I can't answer!
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Wash.: Is this election a referendum on Iraq? If so, will Dems actually come up with a different direction? And if not, will they jeopardize the 2008 election?
In other words, do you buy the argument that letting Dems hold the House now could help Repubs in two years because of Iraq?
Robert G. Kaiser: Foreign policy, and war policy, falls squarely in the realm of the president's powers. Congress cannot set war policy. As we learned with the Cooper-Church amendment that limited the war in Vietnam, Congress CAN cut off war spending in extraordinary circumstances, but if it tries to do so, any law it passes is subject to a presidential veto.
Dems controlling the House could help Republicans in 2008 in countless different ways, but they don't have to! No use at all trying to see ahead now on that score.
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Altoona, Pa.: Ed Rendell is checked as a winner in Pa? Already?
Robert G. Kaiser: I haven't seen the check mark, but that race wasn't close, so I'm not amazed.
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Ithaca, N.Y.: What is the size of the turnout compared to other mid-term elections and what will the impact be today?
Robert G. Kaiser: Interesting fact: real, hard numbers on turnout are almost never available on election night. It will take a day or two to have them, sorry.
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Dryden, N.Y.: I grew up in NH and that state is my bellwether. Hodes in 02 is ahead as expected but Bradley (01) is getting destroyed in Manchester! Does this mean a truly terrible terrible night for the Reps?
Robert G. Kaiser: A little too soon to draw a conclusion, but it isn't looking good for the GOPs in NH.
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Miami, Fla.: On the Web site it currently says that that for the Ohio governorship race that 0% of precincts have reported, and only about 9000 votes have been reported. Yet it says that the Democrat has won (which is great news to me because I want the Dems to win this year). I see the difference in the percentages is great, but how does this race get called a win already? Interested in hearing some insight on how these things get called like this... seems still up in the air to me.
Robert G. Kaiser: Good question, frustrating answer: The calls on the national map are being made by the AP, not by The Post, so I don't know exactly how they do it. I'm sure the AP does have the full Ohio exit poll, which I don't have here for the reasons explained earlier, so I suspect, but don't know, that it shows Strickland with the sort of big lead that all the polls showed last week as well.
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Auckland, New Zealand: Good evening,
Do midterm elections often serve as catharsis for voters angry at a president and it not follow through to the Presidential elections?
Thanks.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for a good question, Auckland. I always feel sorry for foreigners trying to figure out what the crazy Yanks are doing in their elections.
The answer is, sometimes. In 1986 the Democrats did very well, leading to high hopes for 1988, when George H. W. Bush clobbered Michael Dukakis. In 1994, of course, the Republicans swept Congress, and in 1996 Bill Clinton, the Democrat, won an easy reelection.
Bottom line: Too soon to draw any conclusions about 2008, especially because Bush won't be the Republican candidate then.
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Silver Spring, Md.: Ironic that Katherine Harris who saved Bush in 2000 and Kenneth Blackwell who saved him in 2004 are both projected to lose tonight. Is that an omen? Granted neither stood much of chance.
Robert G. Kaiser: Two weak candidates--not an omen.
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Lake Elmo, Minn.: Because of my admiration for you, I have been eager to ask something about 2004. I've waited two years and can wait longer if tonight isn't a good time, but...Regarding the "Swift Boat" attacks: Do you think if Kerry had chosen Viet Nam Vet Wesley Clark instead of John Edwards that the "Swift Boat" attacks could have been more successfully deflected?
Robert G. Kaiser: Here's a nice break from the news of the night.
No, I don't. Kerry's personal failure to respond quickly and forcefully was what did the damage, I think.
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Chamblee, Ga.: Are exit polls giving any hint about the outcome of the Webb-Allen race in Va?
Robert G. Kaiser: I just checked. The latest exit poll shows the race neck and neck in Va. "It will be a late night," said my colleague studying the matter.
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washingtonpost.com: Webb-Allen Race/Virginia Elections
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Santa Barbara, Calif.: Here in California, most analyst attribute Gov. Schwarzenegger's strong position today to his willingness to publicly and unequivocally admit mistakes and take actions that show he's learned from his lessons. Not that I can ever imagine President Bush or any of the hawks in his administration (Cheney, Rumsfeld) doing the same, but would this kind of public mea culpa work at a national level as well (or is it just a California phenomenon), and if so, why wouldn't the administration take advantage of such a tactic?
Robert G. Kaiser: thanks for a good comment. I'm with you: I think in human affairs of all kinds, admitting mistakes can be a productive thing to do. I'm not sure it's impossible for Bush or others in this administration to do this at some point. If Iraq really falls apart, which is a distinct possibility, what choice will they have?
Ahnold taught all politicians a lesson in the last year, I'd say.
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Falls Church, Va.: In 2004, the pundits and media missed the "values" vote and in 2006 the pundits and media seemed to have missed the vote against corruption (at least according to early exit polls). What gives?
Robert G. Kaiser: Human fallibility.
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Gaithersburg, Md.: What does a guy like Allen or Webb do if he loses? Does he hit the help-wanted ads? Or is there some kind of built in safety net for guys at this level?
Robert G. Kaiser: Good question. If it's Allen, I wouldn't be surprised if the Bush administration gave him a job--an ambassadorship, for example. Webb can go back to his career as a novelist.
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Melbourne, Australia: (Another foreigner trying to grasp the complexities of the average voting American mind.)
This question may seem a bit off the track, but is there any indication that the shocking revelations about Rev. Ted Haggard's personal life are having an effect on Evangelical turnout? Could the issue have any electoral implications?
Robert G. Kaiser: Politicos in Colorado were saying in recent days that it might have some impact there. I don't expect to see a wider impact.
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Santa Barbara, Calif.: Hello Mr. Kaiser,
Just an observation from sunny California (where it's 89 degrees in the shade outside and climbing--but don't worry, our president assures us that global warming doesn't exist).
I'm having a brief flash back to the 2004 elections, and your chat on that November day. I remember the day (and the chat) started out with great optimism among the Democrats, which slowly turned into puzzlement and anguish as the day wore on.
Here's hoping that it's not going to be a repeat of that day.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for posting. I remember it too!
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Buenos Aires, Argentina: Do you think that the Saddam sentencing will have any effect on the U.S. elections? Thanks.
Robert G. Kaiser: I don't.
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Adelaide, Australia: Can you explain what the current state of exit polling in the United States is? There is a perception, at least in the international arena, that exit polling is out of favour because it appeared to highlight irregularities in the 2004 Presidential Election.
I note your remark above about exit polls being unreliable - but don't they traditionally (pre-2000) prove to be a remarkably accurate predictor of election results?
Robert G. Kaiser: I think your impression is wrong. Exit polls were way off the mark in 2004, and they have had an uneven record for decades.
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Alexandria, Va.: How are the "projected winners" determined? Do all of the news organizations use the same formula, or is how CNN determines the projected winners different than how the AP determines them?
Robert G. Kaiser: Different organizations do it differently, but the methodology combines actual results from key precincts and exit polls. After 2000, it's my sense that all news organizations are more cautious than they were earlier. I suspect Menendez will win by several points when all votes are counted.
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Silver Spring, Md.: Cnn.com projected Menendez in jersey.... with 2% in! That based on exit polls or what? Seems strange to me that they'd try to call it that early.
Robert G. Kaiser: sorry, my previous answer applied in part to this question as well...
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Washington, D.C. : The Dow was over 12000. Any election impact?
Robert G. Kaiser: The exit poll shows (as our last WashingtonPost-
ABC poll did) that popular perceptions of the economy have been improving, and are not pretty positive. The stock market has undoubtedly contributed to this. So what? Hard to say, but the early House results suggest to me that this hasn't helped the Repubs very much.
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Washington, D.C.: Are elections good for the newspaper business? Or do they just drive up reporting costs?
Robert G. Kaiser: Both, I think. We sell a lot more papers than usual tomorrow and the next day. And it costs a mountain of money to cover an election.
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Chesapeake Beach, Md.: What is the conventional wisdom on 'early returns'--do they tend to come from smaller, Red areas (rural) or closer in to the city (Blue). Or is it all a bunch of hodgepodge....
Robert G. Kaiser: Hodgepodge it is.
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Allendale, Mich.: When Perot ran for president it was widely discussed that the U.S. was on the cusp of a new political era, one in which voters would have more than two viable choices on Election Day. That was then. What, in your opinion, is the state of third party movements in America today?
Robert G. Kaiser: Very weak.
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Toledo, Ohio: I'm from Ohio, and very pleased to (apparently) have a Democratic governor and Senator in a state dominated by the GOP for years. How much of an affect do you think the "Coingate" scandal involving Tom Noe had on Ohio elections?
Robert G. Kaiser: Scandals in Ohio took a toll on the GOP, clearly. This is a big Democratic year in what may be THE bellweather state in the union. This is an important development.
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Minneapolis, Minn.: Where's the Kentucky senatorial race on your interactive map?
Robert G. Kaiser: I don't think there is a Kentucky senatorial race.
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Denver, Colo.: Federal judge in Denver rules that precedent precludes her from extending polling hours to 9 p.m. due to the computer chaos here. Other judges across the country rule differently. What's going on? Can they or can't they??
Robert G. Kaiser: Sorry, not a legal expert.
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Brisbane, Australia: What is your opinion about people casting their vote one way for the House and another way in the Senate? Or to put it another way, if the house is going to fall to the Dems, will the Senate too?
Robert G. Kaiser: Can't predict that, because only one third of the Senate is running for reelection this year, while every member of the House must run. So it's possible for the House to go Democratic and the Senate to stay Republican, for example.
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Kensington, Md.: Dear Mr. Kaiser,
I know that some people vote Independent because they are frustrated with the Democrats and the Republicans, but I have a question. What does it really accomplish to vote Independent (other than personal satisfaction) if one knows full well that one's Independent candidate will not win?
If one wants change in Virginia, voting Independent will not do it. All it does is take votes away, most likely, from Webb. All that will accomplish is that Allen will take office again--no change.
I ask Independent voters out there, with all due respect, what do you hope to accomplish? Is it change? Or something else? Because to me, it seems like spitting in the wind.
Robert G. Kaiser: There was no independent candidate for Senate in Virginia, was there? People can register as an independent--I do it myself--but it's usually not possible to "vote" independent, because we don't usually have independent candidates.
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Detroit, Mich.: Anything on how Ford did in Tennessee?
Robert G. Kaiser: The race is close, but Ford appears to be slightly behind.
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Little Rock, Ark.: If the Democrats get to 50 in the Senate there has been a lot of speculations that at least one of the more moderate GOP members might switch Do you think the Democrats will make an all out effort to make a deal with someone?
Robert G. Kaiser: Or might the Repubs try to entice Joe Lieberman across the aisle? Anything is possible.
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Cannon Falls, Minn.: Wow! Indiana has three house seats showing Dems ahead, Donnelly, Ellsworth and Hill, with Ellsworth showing projected winner.
Does that portend a Dem blowout?
Robert G. Kaiser: Yes this is a pretty strong signal that the Republicans will lose the House.
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Arlington, Va.: How does one prevent last-minute dirty tricks, both the unethical (misleading voter guides) and the potentially illegal (programming a computer to call the same house repeatedly with a message that makes it seem like the obnoxious calls are coming from the other candidate)? I find dirty tricks one of the most disgusting practices of campaigns because they are deliberately designed to mislead and misinform voters. They are engineered by politicians who have a "win at any cost" worldview that views an ideal voter as a vassal that can be manipulated and controlled and a dangerous voter as one who makes decisions based on the process of reason and the available facts. It's antithetical to democracy.
When a candidate uses a dirty trick, he or she is saying, "I don't believe I am a good enough candidate to win based on who I am." What can the media and legal system do to reduce the effectiveness of last-minute dirty tricks?
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for a good comment. Our job is to reveal what is happening; your job is to react to it, as you have.
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Baltimore, Md.: I happened to hear Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich on a talk show this morning and, I don't know, he had a swagger in his voice. Of course, he is a type A personality and all that. Are politicians so seasoned at posturing that they are always "on" or do you think other people can hear notes of triumph or resignation?
Robert G. Kaiser: Very good question. In my experience, some politicians can get away with completely hiding their true emotions, but some others cannot. Why the difference? I guess because they're all human beings.
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New Haven, Conn.: For the questioner wondering about the effect of the strong Dow on voters--one piece of analysis I've heard in the past few weeks said that a stronger economy has worked against the Republicans because it's freed up voters to go back to worrying about Iraq.
Robert G. Kaiser: thanks for posting. Not sure I follow that logic.
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VA Independent Senatorial Candidate: Glenda Parker (IG), currently with 1% of the vote.
Robert G. Kaiser: Ahh. thank you.
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Tucson, Ariz.: If the Dems are one vote short in the Senate, is there any chance of "moderate" Lincoln Chaffee changing parties?
Robert G. Kaiser: not unless he's reelected.
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Fells Point, Baltimore, Md.: I've read "The Making of the President 1960" and I'm fascinated by how much those running for office know about results before we know about results. The whole opening section of that book is brilliant: the Kennedys huddled around radios and TVs, getting inside information, growing by turns anxious and jubilant. How much does that happen today? My question is, I guess, how much better is a campaign's information than that of the general public? Thanks.
Robert G. Kaiser: It's a great book, isn't it? But the world has changed profoundly since then. I don't think that scene could be re-enacted in the era of computers, cell phones, etc.
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Arlington, Va.: On voting independent:
I see the reasoning behind "why waste your vote" but there are several reasons to do so. One, it strengthens the connection between our beliefs and actions, and allows one to live with more integrity. Two, if enough people do it, it strengthens the viability of a third voice in politics as an option. Three, for independent issue candidates, a significant show of support will encourage politicians to co-opt the issue and spend attention on it (e.g. Ross Perot and the federal budget debt).
Robert G. Kaiser: thanks.
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Columbia, Md.: How will it affect the Democrats ability to run the House if they take over based on people's anger and frustration to the leadership of the Republicans then based on ideas and actions taken by the Democratic party?
Robert G. Kaiser: That would be absolutely typical. The Republicans won in '94 because of anger against the Dems. It's just the way these things happen.
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Austin, Tex.: Am I right to assume that the Virginia Senate race is likely to decide who holds the Senate?
Robert G. Kaiser: much too soon to say. We know nothing about Montana as far as I know.
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Washington, D.C.: Looks like it's Lieberman over Lamont. Is he going to be the most powerful Senator on the floor?
Robert G. Kaiser: No
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London, U.K.: Do you think Steele has a chance to steal a Democratic seat in Maryland? He seemed to be coming on strong towards the election, for reasons I don't understand.
Robert G. Kaiser: I don't think Steele will win, but it isn't over yet.
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Re: Denver: The federal judiciary is divided into several circuits. Unless the Supreme Court has spoken, the judges are bound by the precedent of their circuit. So, for example, if the Eighth and Sixth circuits have different precedents on keeping the polls open, the district judges in those circuits could reach different results.
Robert G. Kaiser: thanks.
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Delaware County, Pa.: Are there any new numbers on the Sestak - Weldon race?
Robert G. Kaiser: I just looked and saw no votes reported at all. Soon...
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Silver Spring, Md.: All the pre-election commentary said Iraq was the premiere issue in today's voting, yet in the exit polls it comes in fourth - even behind the economy. What am I missing? You're doing a heckuva job, by the way.
Robert G. Kaiser: I just looked at our latest version of the national exit poll, and Iraq looks like the number one issue. Where'd you get "fourth"?
Thanks for the nice words.
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Palo Alto, Calif.: I sense a fizzle. The Republicans keep the Senate, and maybe even the House. Why is this happening?
Robert G. Kaiser: This is NOT happening. At the moment the Democrats appear to be winning the House; I now think that that is what is happening tonight. The Senate won't be clear for hours.
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New York, N.Y.: AP reports at that Md. Gov. Bob Ehrlich's (R) camp is "acknowledging it paid for fliers handed out on Election Day, suggesting Ehrlich and Michael Steele are Democrats." Provided either one somehow wins, can this affect any attempts at legal challenges? Or is this just a distasteful example of dirty tricks?
Robert G. Kaiser: I hope you are quoting AP accurately, I couldn't check it. It's very difficult to get a court to throw out an election result. However, at the moment it looks like Steele has lost and Ehrlich easily could lose.
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Vancouver, Canada: How are you getting your results?
Robert G. Kaiser: from our map on the home page.
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Agfield, China: How much do the endorsements of a party from newspapers like The Post and New York Times influence on the election?
Robert G. Kaiser: Good question. The Post endorsed Gov. Ehrlich in Maryland this year; looks like he's losing. The Times endorsed Lamont in Connecticut against Lieberman; he lost. In other words, these papers' power is limited. There are situations where an endorsement has a big impact, but they are rare.
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Morgantown, W. Va.: Imagine life without polls and you know what it's like to live in WV. I'm sure there are polls about our races but I never read anything about them even on the The Washington Post. Our local newspaper is owned by the Raese family--he's the candidate running against Robert Byrd. I think Byrd is far ahead or the Post would have written about it. So imagine a life where you really have no idea what the outcome will be....
Robert G. Kaiser: Byrd himself had polls which showed him comfortably ahead. Did none of the papers there take a poll?
I'm not sure you'd get a lot of sympathy from others if you went around carrying a sign that said: Woe Is Us! No Polls!
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Alexandria, Va.: I was watching Webb and Allen result go up and down. I wonder whether we have some way of reporting which precincts are still to declare. That might allow us to analyze it more correctly. Thanks
Robert G. Kaiser: sorry, can't help on that. patience required!
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Chapel Hill, N.C.: Since Santorum has gone done, do you think Bush will offer him a position in the administration (re: the question about Allen) and will that be enough to keep his Presidential ambitions alive? (Frankly, I don't see it).
Robert G. Kaiser: His presidential ambitions are now kaput, I think. A job in the administration is a definite possibility.
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Lake Elmo, Minn.: Now that we have Joe Lieberman for six more years...Am I right in remembering that Lieberman's refusal NOT to drop out of the 2000 senate race could have led to a Republican Governor appointing a Republican senator if Gore had won? Then, of course, the Gore team was supposedly furious with Lieberman for his less than supportive remarks during the Florida controversy (suggestions were made that Lieberman was more concerned with positioning himself for a presidential run of his own in 2004). And now, well, this...Is Lieberman viewed in D.C. as someone rather more concerned with Joe Lieberman than anything else?
Robert G. Kaiser: Lieberman has definitely made himself more controversial than he used to be.
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Pasadena, Calif.: We see Senate races called on a few percent of the vote. Why are there so few predictions for house races? I see pretty substantial vote counts in some races, but still no projections.
Robert G. Kaiser: There are very few if any exit polls done on specific House races, but all the Senate races are the subjects of exit polls. that's the big difference.
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Albemarle, N.C.: What's your take on North Carolina U.S. House races where Larry Kissell, D, is taking on the reputed fourth richest Rep. Robin Hayes? Kissell, a former textile worker turned school teacher, is keeping close to Hayes, a textile mill owner who cast the deciding vote on CAFTA after assuring his voters he was dead set against it? Or where former NFL QB Heath Shuler is taking on GOP strongman Charlie Taylor?This is one of the deep, deep red states - do the Dems have a prayer?
Robert G. Kaiser: Too few votes counted to draw any conclusions, but they are two interesting races. Shuler has obviously run a good race.
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Washington, D.C.: Would a big Democratic win explode the myth of the Evil Omniscient Genius Karl Rove?
Robert G. Kaiser: I think it would.
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San Francisco, Calif.: I just voted in my neighborhood, which I just moved to. It was in a residential garage, not well lit. I showed up, said who I was, and was told I didn't need to show proof of ID because "we trust you" to which I responded, "you shouldn't." I was then given 5 ballots and stood in the one line there, which turned out to be a mix of people who were waiting to vote, and people who had already voted. Since I had just arrived, the man before me gave the woman his ballots and she put them through the machine. The woman then turned to me, and I gave her my ballots as well. When she gave me a "I voted" sticker was when I realized what just happened and I told her "I haven't voted yet."
I can't believe in this country that voting standards are so low. It felt so unofficial, and I would even say sketchy. What are other people saying about the voting system?
Robert G. Kaiser: Yours is the first such comment I've received tonight. thank you for it.
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Palisades Park, N.J.: Since it is Mark Foley's name on the ballot..let's say he does win. Is there anything legally preventing him from changing his mind and deciding to return to the House in January?
Robert G. Kaiser: He has resigned; he's history.
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Valencia, Calif.: We know the computers can be hacked. Why should we ever trust the vote count again?
Robert G. Kaiser: I hope so. It's always been possible to steal an election, but we've generally escaped that fate. I'm an optimist, I readily admit. Someday there will be a hacked election, no doubt, but I don't think it's going to become normal.
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Delaware County, Pa.: With 16 percent of the vote in Sestak is leading 57% to Weldon's 43%.
Robert G. Kaiser: yes, just saw that myself. not a good sign for Weldon.
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Vancouver, Canada: One agency reports that of 33 Senate seats this time only 9 were competitive. Yet in elections up here, a Parliamentary system, many more seats are competitive - party leaders and even Prime Ministers sometimes lose their seats. Why are relatively so few seats in American elections competitive?
Robert G. Kaiser: This is a long story, I won't try to do it justice tonight, but the big difference is that in our system, incumbency is a huge advantage, and party ID is a much weaker factor (usually) here than in Canada.
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Baltimore, Md.: ABC News has called Maryland for O'Malley. Seems awfully fast...
Robert G. Kaiser: We've seen the same exit polls that ABC has, and it does look like a clear O'Malley victory is in prospect.
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Arlington, Va.: With the Webb-Allen race so close it seems likely that we may have to wait until the absentee ballots are counted, and perhaps the provisionals as well. How long does that usually take. It also seems possible that the conservative woman running under the misleading "Independent Green" party label could well tip the balance.
Robert G. Kaiser: Yes, it is very close. Under state law, if there is less than half a percent difference between Webb and Allen, a recount is automatic. We may well not know the result tonight.
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Alexandria, Va.: Sir any idea which part of the state votes still remains to be counted in the Webb-Allen race?
Robert G. Kaiser: Dems are saying there's a lot of northern Va. still to be counted.
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Virginia Results: To give a plug to your "competition," CNN is reporting county-by-county breakdowns on key races. Thus, as of a few minutes ago, half of Arlington precincts have yet to report, as is the case with much of Prince William, and some of Fairfax and Loudoun.
In other words, the late reporting precincts aren't all rural -- which is one reason why no one's called the Senate race for Allen yet.
Robert G. Kaiser: Yes. Thanks.
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Nagasaki, Japan: I'm writing from Japan, people around the world are watching this election with keen interest. After the World Trade Center attack the world wanted to work with America to confront the global problems that caused that attack, but were horrified to see America change before our eyes.
I'm not talking of a change of policy, but a fundamental change in how America perceived itself and its relationship to the world. America became a different person, with a different personality, and the world by and large did not like that new person.
This election may indicate that America itself has realised what it has become and does not want to be that person. The election is not a referendum on local issues, but rather a referendum on what America wants to be, and it appears to me that America has decided it wants to be a different person.
Do you think that view has any validity or have I just had too much coffee and donuts?
Robert G. Kaiser: No I think your view has some merit.
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Alexandria, Va.: Amateur Analysis: Looks like Allen is going to squeak out a win. Webb is behind by 25,000 votes. Arlington will give him another 10,000 by the time all the precincts have reported, but I don't see where he can make up the rest of the ground. (I'm assuming absentee ballots will give an edge to Allen, if they come into play).
Robert G. Kaiser: thanks for posting.
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Los Angeles, Calif.: How will the results of these elections impact the presidential prospects of Democrats and Republicans? Who do you think will get the 2008 ticket for each party?
Robert G. Kaiser: This question is not answerable tonight. I do perceive a broad trend away from the Republicans; I also think the Republican coalition is very brittle. It will take great skill by whoever the 2008 GOP candidate is to hold it together.
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Kingston, R.I.: Have you heard the results of any exit polls in the Rhode Island Senate race?
Robert G. Kaiser: Chafee has lost, evidently.
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Los Angeles, Calif.: It appears that many political polls especially last-minute polls do little more than enable pollsters and news organizations that sponsor polls to stay in the fray (e.g., to entice readers/viewers with the latest WP-NYT-NBC-ABC-WSJ-PEW-USAToday-Zogby, etc. results). That is, very few political polls predict with precision how competitive elections end-up as many of the last polls only indicate the race is narrowing, too close to call or a statistical dead heat. Yet, news organizations, political parties and individual politicians spend millions on political polling. Why is this? Other than producing dazzling graphics, is it a case of the blind following the blind?
Robert G. Kaiser: A lot of money is squandered on polls whose utility is small to none.
Posted 9:45 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Denver, Colo.: Have you followed the 7th District house race in Colorado? Do you think Perlmutter will defeat O'Donnell?
Thanks for the intriguing chats!
Robert G. Kaiser: Perlmutter is favored. Republicans stopped paying for commercials for his opponent some time ago, signaling that they had lost hope.
Posted 9:45 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Lawrence, Kan.: In the Kansas 2nd district Boyda is reported to be leading Ryun 54%-43%. Does this have any significance or is it too early?
Robert G. Kaiser: This is not what Ryun hoped for, but it's too early to write him off.
Posted 9:57 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Austin, Tex.: If the Republicans hold the Senate very narrowly, how much freedom will Bush have as far as judicial nominations?
Robert G. Kaiser: Much less than he's had.
Posted 9:57 p.m., 11.7.2006
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San Diego, Calif.: Some estimates are that 90% of media buys went for negative advertising this cycle. Some of it involved what is known in technical legal parlance as "outright lies." The ads targeting Elen Simon in Arizona are one particularly shocking example.
Some of these ads are well across the line into defamation and would clearly be actionable were they not part of a political campaign (and they may possibly be actionable anyway -- intentional lies are not protected by the First Amendment.) I know you're not a lawyer but how much blow-back, legal or otherwise, do you see from this kind of advertising and what effect do you think it had on this election?
Robert G. Kaiser: If you're a student of American history, you know that scurrilous attacks, often unfounded, have been part of American elections from the beginning. Voters have to reject this stuff; courts won't do it.
Posted 9:58 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Bethesda, Md.: To go back to the Tennessee Senate race, do you think it's odd that the Democratic gov. won so overwhelmingly, yet Ford is points behind. Isn't it unusual for voters to split the ticket for Governor and Senate as Tennesseans seem to be doing?
Robert G. Kaiser: It's far from unheard of, but it's certainly noteworthy.
Posted 9:59 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Alexandria, Va.: I just heard in the CNN that Pederson might pull off a surprise in Arizona. Is there any statistical return to support that ? Because that certainly will be a bonus.
Robert G. Kaiser: polls closed in AZ at 9 p.m., but we have no results posted by the AP yet, so I can't be helpful.
Posted 10:00 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Chevy Chase, Md.: The Post map has both Ehrlich and Steele ahead by a lot. What's going on?
Robert G. Kaiser: I'll post your question so my colleagues at wp.com can see it. I don't know the answer.
Posted 10:01 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Stockholm, Sweden: CNN has called Virginia for Allen with 83% of precincts in.
Robert G. Kaiser: too soon to do that.
Posted 10:01 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Alexandria, Va.: Is there any update from Carter-Ensign race ?
Robert G. Kaiser: Polls just closed three minutes ago. No news yet.
Posted 10:02 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Anonymous: A Democratic sweep in Indiana....is this the most meaningful sign of the evening so far?
Robert G. Kaiser: Hardly a sweep--look at the map. The three closest races there were indeed won by Democrats. And that is a bad sign for the GOP, yes.
Posted 10:04 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Indianapolis, Ind.: Does Joe Lieberman's victory make any kind of statement about the strength/weakness of the two party system?
Robert G. Kaiser: Good question, and I'm reluctant to think I know the answer. David Broder wrote a book years ago called The Party's Over, bemoaning the decline of the two parties. On many levels they have declined, but the GOP showed, in the last six years, how effective a party can still be. Lieberman was personally very popular with moderate-to-conservative voters in Connecticut. He deserves personal credit first, I'd say.
Posted 10:06 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Houston, Tex.: I am getting a sense that the Republicans will barely keep the Senate with the Democrats taking the House. If that indeed becomes the case, do you see the Bush administration changing course? In short, becoming more moderate. Do you see President Bush becoming a truly lame duck president?
Robert G. Kaiser: You know, beginning tomorrow morning, George W. Bush IS a lame-duck president. He can no longer win formal public support; he's most likely to face a Democratic House and a very evenly divided Senate, be it Democratic or Republican. And he's out of business; politicians and reporters will begin at once to focus on 2008. That's how the world now works.
I'm intrigued to see if he tries to change course or change is place on the political spectrum. Ronald Reagan did that to great effect at the end of his two-term presidency. Will W? No idea.
Posted 10:08 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Atlanta, Ga.: Sorry I'm late. What do you think of Tenn.? Being from Ga., I know what I think. We're not quite ready yet.
Robert G. Kaiser: that may be true. But it's still too close to call the result.
Posted 10:08 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Chevy Chase, Md.: Now the map has Cardin in the lead by a lot, but Ehrlich still way ahead. Yet I saw NBC has projected O'Malley. What a science.
Robert G. Kaiser: frustrating, yes. But it's the exit poll, which shows O'Malley and Cardin winning pretty cleanly.
Posted 10:09 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Stockholm, Sweden: Hello Americans,
Hope you all voted on this important day.
Killing time while waiting for results, I notice over at CNN that of twenty called key races at all levels so far (defined and called by them), all have gone Democratic, except Lieberman-Lamont. Which kind of went Dem too. All races without an incumbent seem to go Dem as well.
Trend?
Robert G. Kaiser: yes, it's a trend so far.
Posted 10:09 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Alexandria, Va.: I know it's frivolous to ask "why did he lose?" questions before the race is even over, but it's fun, so humor me.
If Webb loses, I think the main reason will be logistics. In close elections, what tips the balance is often the efficiency and extent of a campaign's ground game. Anecdotally, I heard that Webb's campaign staff was significantly smaller than Allen's until a few months ago, when the race began to tighten. An effective ground game requires lots of community connections, strategic planning, and well-trained volunteers that have been with the campaign for a long time. All these things take many months to develop, and my guess is that Webb just couldn't develop his ground game fast enough to what it needed to be. Just a guess--this could be completely untrue.
Thanks so much for doing these chats. They almost make me look forward to elections.
Robert G. Kaiser: thanks for posting.
Posted 10:10 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Split Gov.: What do you make of Democratic governors of Republican states (AZ, MO) and Republican governors of Democratic states (CA, MD)? Is this similar to a Democratic house and a Republican president, which was long the precedent? Is there a voter preference for split government?
Robert G. Kaiser: sometimes there is, and sometimes there isn't.
Posted 10:11 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Sydney, Australia: Hello Mr. Kaiser!
It think it's safe to say that many people have been impressed with the campaign of Harold Ford Jr. If he loses today's election (and I hope he doesn't) what can we expect from his future?
Do you see him running again? I think it's pretty clear that he is keen on making a big impression on the future of U.S. politics.
Robert G. Kaiser: Hard to say what Ford might do next.
Posted 10:12 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Washington: Byrd (D-W.Va.) is 89. No reason to think he won't make it to 112, but who would replace him if he had to make an early exit? Is this a Democratic concern in such a tight situation?
Robert G. Kaiser: an early exit at 89? how would that work?
The governor of West Virginia is a Democrat. I don't know what the law provides there for replacing a senator who dies in office. Anyone out there know?
Posted 10:15 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Chesapeake Beach, Md.: When Doug Wilder was elected governor of Va, the most shocking thing was how close the vote was (compared to polls that showed a greater lead). Much was attributed to some 'subtle racism' that wouldn't manifest itself when asked by a pollster, but would come out at the ballot box.
Are there any races out there that might see a similar disconnect between the polls and the results due to election issues, or do think this "Wilder-effect" was a one off occurrence.
Robert G. Kaiser: Yes, the Tennessee senate race could prove similar.
Posted 10:15 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Lorton, Va.: From the opening bit "Just as happened four years ago, we have a lot of early exit polls that may be flawed."
What is your take on the assertion that its not the exit polls that are flawed, but the electronic voting? When we send election monitors to other countries, we rely strongly on exit polls to determining if there are flaws in their voting process. But here, when the exit polls don't match up, we blame the pollsters not the voting.
Robert G. Kaiser: Exit polls have been wrong for as long as I can remember--not always, but too often. And I've been around at The Post for 43 years, hard as that is to believe. And that takes us back long before the era of electronic voting, which I experienced for the very first time when I voted in Washington this morning.
Posted 10:17 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Biting my nails...: Thanks for staying up late to entertain us junkies! Back to the Webb/Allen race: since the gay marriage amendment passed so strongly (ugh), do you think this is a signal that Allen will win? (please say no) I know it's close, but still...
Robert G. Kaiser: Well I suspect it helped Allen, but the race isn't over yet!
Posted 10:17 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Washington, D.C.: Why are Republicans losing to conservative Dems in places like Indiana?
Robert G. Kaiser: Why? Where have you been? Because the country has turned against Bush and his war, I think is the answer.
Posted 10:19 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Virginia: Currently, (according to CNN), Webb is down by about 25000. However, looking at the county-by county, Webb should pick up 10K in Arlington, 10 K in Richmond, and another 3 or 4 k in other districts. This is close.
Robert G. Kaiser: yes it is.
Posted 10:19 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Athens, Ga.: Robert, you are correct that campaigns have been quite nasty from the beginning and I completely agree. But the level of hatred towards our respective opponents in this country is out of control. This is partly fueled by the modern mechanisms available to disseminate information, but more so because of the politicians they cover. Nonetheless, we are divided and tonight I'm sure you will hear a losing politician say, "My opponent is a good person, we will be ok." Politicians are pros, it's much harder for the average voter to let go so easily, especially in this divided time. What can we do?
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks for the good comment. I'm afraid I can't propose a solution--not my department. Not my temperament either.
Posted 10:20 p.m., 11.7.2006
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London, U.K.: What are your thoughts on the new technologies involved in terms of election coverage? It seems like each election cycle the ways in which to converse increase. Despite being in the UK this year for the election, I find I can stay more on top of things by staying online anyway through chats like this, blogs and even CNN Pipeline.
Robert G. Kaiser: You're right. The world has shrunk. I lived in London at the time of the 1964 election here, and it took me two days to get a real sense of what had happened.
Posted 10:24 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Stockholm, Sweden: Hello, Mr Kaiser,
Either the late hour (4 a.m. here) has made me careless, or CNN has uncalled the Virginia race. I'm pretty sure I saw it pop up in their "projected races" graphic, but now it seems to be "processing". I suspect operator error on the part of, ehum, me.
Robert G. Kaiser: I'm not watching CNN, so I can't be helpful. But I do know that it is too close to call in Virginia.
Posted 10:25 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Singapore: When can we expect all votes to be counted in Virginia. I'm especially thinking about absentee ballots.
Robert G. Kaiser: we may not know the result tonight, and the Senate may turn on the outcome.
Posted 10:25 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Philadelphia, Pa.: In a story that moved on the World Net Daily Web site by Aaron Klein yesterday, Middle East terrorists exhorted Americans to vote Democratic...They were actually bold enough to tell Mr.Klein that a Democratic victory in these mid-term elections was a good omen for their continued "success..." Indeed, Mr. Kaiser, given the Bush administration's rather firm stand on terrorism, is there a danger that the Democrats' midterm resurgence will be interpreted by international terrorists as a weakening of the American will against their tactics?
Robert G. Kaiser: I have to say this line of argument seems pretty ridiculous to me. Who is Aaron Klein? What is the World Net Daily? Who did he talk to? I am profoundly dubious.
Posted 10:26 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Mark Warner: Do you think this race would even be close if Warner ran for the senate rather than exploring the president? My guess is a 10 point swing towards Warner.
Robert G. Kaiser: I think I agree with you, all else being equal. But then he'd have to serve in the Senate, something he obviously did not want to do.
Posted 10:26 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Livermore, Calif.: I've never been "exit polled."
What exactly happens in an exit poll?
Does someone just ask who you voted for, and you tell them? I find it strange that guys with clipboards stand around outside the elementary school and ask questions to people walking out. I have 25 years experience voting and I've never seen an exit-poller. How do they choose which polling places to go to, and why have they never chosen mine?
Robert G. Kaiser: Well, I have been exit-polled, some years ago, by CBS as I recall. Yes, people with clipboards stop voters as they leave a polling place and ask if they would participate. And a high percentage seems willing to do so.
Posted 10:27 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Sydney, NSW Australia: I saw recently news about an editorial in U.S. military papers criticizing Rumsfeld's handling of Iraq. Given the importance of Iraq in this election, and security overall, is there any sense of which way U.S. personnel serving overseas, particularly in Afghanistan and Iraq, are voting ?
Robert G. Kaiser: Here's a link to a really interesting story by my colleague Josh White, reporting on views of our soldiers in Iraq about withdrawal--not about their voting intentions, but still revealing I thought.
Posted 10:28 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Washington, D.C.: Things don't seem to be looking too good for McCaskill...are the current numbers coming mainly from rural Missouri?
Robert G. Kaiser: I don't have any information, but I note that less than 15% of the vote has been counted.
Posted 10:29 p.m., 11.7.2006
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washingtonpost.com: Soldiers in Iraq Say Pullout Would Have Devastating Results , ( Post, Nov. 6. 2006 )
Posted 10:30 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Local yokel: Are we allowed to ask you questions about statewide races? Do you have any dish on the Attorney General race in WI? The results seem to be coming in SO slowly...
Robert G. Kaiser: sorry, no Wisconsin sources here. Have you looked at the Milwaukee Journal Web site?
Posted 10:30 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Biting my nails in Baltimore: This is my first election, and I would love to have Cardin and O'Malley elected but both seem to be way behind in the actual vote. So why are they being called winners?
Robert G. Kaiser: See above: because of the exit polls and other analysis. I think you can give your nails a break.
Posted 10:30 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Sterling, Va.: I was all set to vote against Bush today, but then he wasn't even on the ballot!
Seriously, though, why do people vote for one candidate based on someone else? Whatever I think of Bush has nothing to do with whether or not Frank Wolf is a good representative, or George Allen a good senator. It seems that a lot of people treat elections as a game, rather than trying to find the best person for the job. (Of course, with the choices we tend to get stuck with, "best" is relative, but even still...)
Robert G. Kaiser: thanks for the post.
Posted 10:31 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Richmond, Va.: If Senator Allen holds his lead does that doom the Democrats' chance to takeover the Senate?
Robert G. Kaiser: Not automatically, but it makes it much harder.
Posted 10:31 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Houston, Tex.: The Republicans will win the special election for Tom DeLay's former seat; the Democratic candidate appears to be on the way to a victory to hold the seat for the coming term; what impact does the special election flip-flop have on the ultimate winner for the seat?
Robert G. Kaiser: If that happens as you describe, the new member won't be much affected by what happens for the rest of this year.
Posted 10:32 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Chevy Chase, Md.: In all my years of voting (more than 25), I've never been asked anything by an exit poller. Who do they ask?
Robert G. Kaiser: They ask first a lot of questions so they can categorize you: gender, age, race, income level and such. Then they ask about issues--did they influence your vote? And of course they ask who you voted for. Sometimes they give you a paper ballot so you can mark it up without disclosing your preferences.
Posted 10:34 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Morrison, Colo.: I was a judge at the 2004 election. Other than determining that the number of votes cast was less than or equal to the number of people who showed up and signed in, there was NO WAY I could 'judge' the fairness or validity of the vote tallies on an ESS machine. We (me and other judges) just pushed a button. No paper trail. This cannot go on. Is there any hope we will have a real paper trail by 2008 hopefully a by mail vote like Oregon has so Voter suppression tactics like have taken place in Virginia are mitigated. This seems to be a much bigger issue in the minds of people I have spoken with than the degree to which the media covers it.
Robert G. Kaiser: thanks for the post. I grew up with voting machines which created no paper trail. This is not a radical departure. I agree that we have to pay close attention to these machines; their performance is important, and they clearly aren't perfect. But I don't think we live in a banana republic. We can make these things work.
Posted 10:36 p.m., 11.7.2006
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New Jersey: If the Democratic wave materializes, I will regain hope that people have remembered what the ballot box is for. I had been thinking that my fellow citizens had lost any critical faculties. What do you think about the turnout!! Another surprise, although people were being physically propelled to the polls here in N.J.
Robert G. Kaiser: thanks for the post
Posted 10:39 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Washington, D.C.: Dean vs. Rahm Emanuel. 50 state strategy vs. key battlegrounds. Who's going to get credit/blame tonight if Dems win/lose?
Robert G. Kaiser: It looks to me as though both will have things to brag about, but I'd like to reserve judgment until I see more results. (BTW, I'll be back for a post-election chat and post-mortem on Friday at noon.)
Posted 10:40 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Atlanta, Ga.: Hello and thank you for answering questions.
As a Southerner, I've seen the GOP go from being a party promising it would run government "like a business" in 1994 to one of yes men less afraid of blurring government and party. Do you believe Congressional oversight functions would steer Iraq strategy better under a divided Congress, or one in which power were not so monolithic?
Robert G. Kaiser: I have written in our Outlook question about the collapse of oversight in Congress. I think this is a serious problem for the country.
Posted 10:41 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Chicago, Ill.: Why was there so little press about the outrageous Robocalls implemented and paid for by the RNC? The country deserved to hear about the Republican dirty tricks--hideous, dishonest, deceitful directly tricks in bold block letters on the front pages of newspapers everywhere... What is this story condemned to the blogs and not broadcast on the front pages of papers everywhere?
Robert G. Kaiser: I've read good stories about this in The Post and the NY Times.
Posted 10:42 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Bethesda, Md.: NPR reported tonight that Ehrlich's campaign admitted paying for the flyers that listed Ehrlich and Steele as Democrats.
Robert G. Kaiser: We've had a story on the site for much of the day about this. Here's a link to it.
Posted 10:42 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Greensboro, N.C.: Someone earlier asked about Chafee switching parties; that's obviously not going to happen now. But has there been any talk of what happens when/if the Dems pick up the House and maybe the Senate? I seem to remember after the 1994 debacle, that many Dems, especially in the South and Midwest, switched parties. Could a Chris Shays or Olympia Snowe jump ship, especially for a chairmanship? What about someone without such a high profile?
Robert G. Kaiser: Very interesting question. Can't answer it tonight.
Posted 10:43 p.m., 11.7.2006
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washingtonpost.com: Sample Ballots in Pr. George's Misidentify Candidates , ( Post, Nov. 7, 2006 )
Posted 10:43 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Gaithersburg, Md.: Any results yet for Tammy Duckworth, the Iraq war vet?
Robert G. Kaiser: You can find the early results by clicking on Illinois on our map, after you click on "national." It shows the race absolutely even with about 15% counted.
Posted 10:44 p.m., 11.7.2006
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San Luis Obispo, Calif.: Mr. Kaiser:
I just want to say thank you for doing not only this chat tonight, but also for all the other political chats you've done following state of the union speeches or other political events. We political junkies really appreciate your expertise and willingness to stay up late. Lucky me, it's only 7:30 p.m. here in California, so I'm good to go for many hours yet!
Robert G. Kaiser: Thank you very much. I have to say this is not painful; it's great fun for me to have real interaction with readers. For the first 35 years or so of my career, that was only possible if I went out to a public event and met readers; now I can do it from my own desk in the newsroom. And I love the readership of washingtonpost.com: smart, wise, sometimes even funny--though we could use a few more good jokes.
Posted 10:45 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Formerly of Va. now Bethlehem, Pa.: Are precincts in Virginia all the same size, roughly, or is an urban precinct bigger in terms of votes? I'm trying to figure out how many votes are still out there in Virginia Senate race.
Robert G. Kaiser: Sorry, can't help. It does look like a recount in Virginia is in the cards. And that means no one needs to stay up tonight waiting for a result, because there probably won't be one tonight.
Posted 10:46 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Toronto, Canada: Given the outrageous advantage of incumbents, due to unfair advantage rather than merit, is there any chance that one of these days a politician will promise to serve only one term? I am also thinking of presidential candidates. It might enhance the chances of the candidate that does it
Robert G. Kaiser: well, we haven't seen a presidential candidate do it yet. I'm not sure I agree with you, but it's an intriguing idea.
Posted 10:47 p.m., 11.7.2006
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San Jose, Calif.: Will a Democratic controlled Congress diminish the chances of war with Iran?
Robert G. Kaiser: I think the chance of the U.S. starting a war with Iran is very small, with or without a Democratic Congress.
Posted 10:47 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Macon, Ga.: Georgia's 8th is leaning Republican and might be the only race in the nation where a Democratic incumbent loses. Jim Marshall, a respected vet trailing Collins. Thoughts on that race, any insights as to who will win?
Robert G. Kaiser: the two close seats in Georgia appear to be the only ones in the country that incumbent Democrats could lose. But they haven't lost them yet.
Posted 10:48 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Smyrna, Ga.: Dear Mr. Kaiser,
With newspaper budgets shrinking, and thousands of layoffs, do you think the papers can continue to investigate public interest issues in depth before and during elections? The LA Times just fired its editor today --Election Day--over cost-cutting. Do you think the cost cutting is having an effect nationally?
Robert G. Kaiser: Len Downie and I published a sadly prescient book about this problem in 2001: THE NEWS ABOUT THE NEWS, American Journalism in Peril. Shamelessly, I exploit this question to give it a plug!
The news from L.A. today is tragic. Dean Baquet is a wonderful editor. The proprietors of the Tribune Co. are distinctly unimpressive businessmen, alas. They are going to do grave damage to one of America's four great newspapers. This is very sad.
Yes, cutbacks threaten good journalism.
Posted 10:52 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Annapolis, Md.: I may have missed this in earlier discussions, but given that there are a lot more absentee ballots in Md. this year, isn't predicting based on exit polling subject to errors? Especially given that there are a lot of absentee ballots (my numbers are probably off but I think that I read somewhere that ~ 190,000 absentee ballots were mailed in Md., with expected voting about 2 million)? If the numbers are close then that is about 9-10% of the voters not polled.
Robert G. Kaiser: I presume there aren't enough absentee votes to change the projections being made. But I have no hard info about it. Sorry. Have you looked at Marc Fisher's chat on local elections? He may have more.
Posted 10:53 p.m., 11.7.2006
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San Francisco, Calif.: Do you anticipate that the Republicans will use legal channels to challenge the results, which are clearly not going their way? this seems like a practice they have established since 2000. also, why hasn't there been more press on this possibility?
Robert G. Kaiser: Hey, there was a real dispute in 2000; both sides understandably turned to lawyers. It could happen again, sure. Too soon to predict.
Posted 10:53 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Washington, D.C.: How could Pelosi hold together a House that now has prolife Democrats and Howard Dean democrats?
Robert G. Kaiser: How could Gingrich, Delay and Hastert hold together a Republican party that had at least as broad a spectrum? Because winning is important in politics.
Posted 10:54 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Salt Lake City, Utah: Thank you for joining us for another election night (I too remember 2004!). The Post is doing a fabulous job with coverage, by the way (now if I could just get the paper version delivered -- that's not going to happen, though, is it??).
No real question, just wanted to say keep up the great work. Thanks!
Robert G. Kaiser: Thank you. For years I dreamed of a national edition of The Post. Then the Internet arrived. The dream ended.
But we are thrilled that a couple of million people read our journalism on the Net every day. We've expanded our audience exponentially, if that's how you spell it.
Posted 10:57 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Liverpool, U.K.: Do you think the invasion of Iraq might, as it turns out, have a more beneficial effect on democracy in the U.S. than on democracy in Iraq?
Robert G. Kaiser: Possible. Distinctly possible.
Posted 10:57 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Ashburn, Va.: Mr. Kaiser, thanks so much for doing these chats. Just a comment. I've been following the election process in this country since 2000 and I love the election day night and these chats and listening to all the pundits and what not. As an immigrant and just a greencard holder, it's a tough wait to become a citizen and get the right to vote. I want to tell all the people of this country who don't care to vote, to think how precious the ability to cast your vote is! I for one am waiting for the day I become a citizen and get to register to vote. And am also waiting for the day my birth country allows dual citizenship.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thank you for that moving comment. We're lucky to have you here.
Posted 10:57 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Sydney, Australia: I see that after 89% of the vote, Crist (R) seems set to be Florida's next Governor. Since 2000 Florida has always been viewed as a swing state - but is it starting to become more of a red state?
Also, is it fair to say that in Presidential campaigns it is a big advantage to have the sitting governor being from your party? Florida in 2000 (& 2004) would be a prime example. At the moment it looks like the 2006 Governor elections will help Democrats more (e.g. Arkansas, Minnesota)
Robert G. Kaiser: Yes, Florida is getting redder. But today's results in governors' races are, overall, a big lift for the Democrats.
Posted 10:58 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Robert G. Kaiser: It's 11:05, and I'm going to take a few minutes to, er, wash my hands. I'll also cruise the newsroom for tidbits; back in a few...
Posted 11:05 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Needham, Mass.: Re: National edition of the Post- I started reading washingtonpost.com as the 2000 election aftermath unfolded, and have been a steady reader for the last six years. I would not have been a regular purchaser of a print edition at a newsstand here in Boston. I would have missed out on a lot absent the dot.com version of The Post.
Robert G. Kaiser: Yes, that's why we're not going to have one!
Posted 11:17 p.m., 11.7.2006
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New York: Great to see you're still taking questions. So I have two:
1. CNN called Maryland a long time ago, but the most recent results actually show Steele ahead. Did they call it too early?
2. Why is Arlington County taking so long to report (still only 50% counted)? Is that enough to tip the race?
Robert G. Kaiser: Just talked to Mathew Mosk our chief MD political writer, who says it is "95 percent certain" that O'Malley and Cardin have won. Both are claiming, or are about to claim, victory.
I'll try to get an answer on Arlington. I don't know.
Posted 11:19 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Portland, Ore.: Any word on the South Dakota abortion ban ballot initiative?
Robert G. Kaiser: only very early returns, nothing to rely on yet
Posted 11:21 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Vienna, Va.: Looks like the Dems take 20-25 seats in the house. I remember pundits saying "35 plus". Isn`t this a disappointing result?
Robert G. Kaiser: NBC says 29 to 39. Key Repubs are dropping: Sweeney in NY, Shaw in Fla for example. Not, not a disappointment for the Dems.
Posted 11:22 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Houston, Tex.: Will we see any surprise in Senate race tonight?
Robert G. Kaiser: And what will I get for Christmas?
Posted 11:22 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Snowe jumping ship: Well, the Democrats give out committee chairs on a strict seniority basis, unlike the GOP. So there's not as much incentive to jump ship in that direction.
Robert G. Kaiser: No, the Dems made Jim Jeffords chairman of Environment and Public Works when he left the GOP. There is room for maneuver.
Posted 11:26 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Tracy, Calif.: Polls are closed in California! (Sometimes I wished the earth spun the other way.)
I've been somewhat peeved that California's districts 11 (where I live) and 15 have not been mentioned as "key" races.
These are very close races and could be upsets! Do you think McNerney and Honda (Dems) have a shot at upsets, like I've been praying for?
Robert G. Kaiser: I have no inside information on those races.
Posted 11:26 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Adelaide, Australia: Thanks for an informative discussion.
As a foreigner it seems readily apparent that two key problems the U.S. faces in national elections is the ridiculous practice of each state controlling its own voting procedures, and the extremely serious question of the reliability of electronic voting. Do you see any possibility of either of these matters being addressed at a national level? Is there enough of an interest in the health of democracy in a non-partisan sense that the parties could ever agree to do something about it? These are of course on top of the chronic problems associated with campaign finance in the USA.
As an aside, I note that the Webb-Allen race just tightened right up.
A final question - are you ready to call the house for the Democrats, or do you think a Republican victory is still a possibility?
Robert G. Kaiser: The House will be Democratic, I'm confident.
You misunderstand this country. Federalism is real, and important to us. We will not create national standards for elections.
We can however create a standard for voting machines and such. That may be in our future.
Posted 11:27 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Kensington, Md.: So how proud is The Post editorial staff of endorsing a Governor who bussed in homeless people from out of state to help him pretend to be a Democrat? And any comment on the money laundering story The Post ignored?
Robert G. Kaiser: You'll have to ask the editorial staff. We in the news department have no input into their endorsements, and pay no attention to them, really.
Posted 11:28 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Melbourne, Australia: I love The Washington Post! In what time frame can we expect results on key Senate races? 12 hours? More?
Robert G. Kaiser: can't say. Might take some days to get a Virginia result.
Posted 11:30 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Alexandria, Va.: Are you looking at exit polls or just the results? Do you agree that the public needs to be kept in the dark on exit polls, and if so, why?
Robert G. Kaiser: No I believe the public ought to know what exit polls say, and our readers will know in the next day or two everything that we know.
Posted 11:35 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Wilmington, N.C.: It looks to me like Prince William is the big late reporter. How did they go in Kaine/Kilgore?
Robert G. Kaiser: It's Richmond, Loudon, Fairfax absentees and Prince William, and history is not a reliable guide, I don't think.
Posted 11:36 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Bloomfield, Conn.: How can you explain why Lieberman won in Conn. while Chafee lost in RI?
Thank you.
Robert G. Kaiser: Lieberman and Whitehouse got the most votes! What exactly are you looking for? Lieberman is a Democrat, essentially, though he lost the Democratic primary. Chafee is a Republican. That's a difference, no?
Posted 11:42 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Alexandria, Va.: I know that Lieberman was not given a democratic ticket but is there any legal provision by which he can declare himself democratic seat holder rather than just voting with them?
Robert G. Kaiser: Don't know. I expect it's up to the other Dems in the Senate to decide what his status will be.
Posted 11:43 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Metro Manila, Philippines: Various news outlets have reported that the Iraq war stands out as one of the significant issues of this election. Given the seeming cacophonous stand the Democrats have on this issue and the fact that they came into this election with no concrete stand thereto (their "6 for '06" platform failed to mention anything on Iraq), how would you construe any of their gains after the election, against the backdrop of the said issue?
Robert G. Kaiser: The Iraq was is now extremely unpopular in America. Republicans and Democrats are worried about it. Changes in our policy are now likely.
Posted 11:44 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Baltimore, Md.: With so many venues for people to get election data, do you guys feel like readers are constantly trying to trump you? (As a former reporter, my guess, in general, in all news, is that they are). Thanks for doing this chat.
Robert G. Kaiser: Naah, but they are competing! And it's fun.
Posted 11:50 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Bethesda, Md.: People who get up in arms about the (obviously) despicable tactics used by parties to sway voters through sleazy campaign literature would do well to consider the affront to their first amendment rights should we allow the government to try to legislate a solution.
Stay informed and you won't be taken in.
Robert G. Kaiser: Thanks. I agree.
Posted 11:51 p.m., 11.7.2006
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Robert G. Kaiser: The flow of questions has slowed dramatically, and it's nearly midnight, so I'll end this now, with thanks to all for the many good comments and questions.
To summarize what's happened tonight, the Republican era that began in 1994 and was re-enforced in 2000 has now ended. It could of course be revived as early as two years from now. But Washington will now be transformed by the fact that the House is strongly in Democratic hands. The Senate can still go either way, and the change would obviously be more dramatic if the Democrats eek out 51 senators, but even without that happening, the Bush administration will find itself in an entirely new place after January. It won't like that place, either.
Bush now faces the biggest choice he's had since choosing to go to war in 2003. Will he try to tough it out, or will he change course and reach out to Democrats? I have no idea.
I'll be back Friday at noon, EST, to continue the conversation.
Posted 11:52 p.m., 11.7.2006
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