President Bush Visits Vietnam

Ben Wilkinson, associate director of the John F. Kennedy School of Government's Vietnam Program, was online Friday, Nov. 17, at 11 a.m. ET to discuss President Bush's visit to Vietnam, where he will be attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' meeting in Hanoi to discuss trade relations. The House of Representatives failed to pass a bill earlier this week to permanently normalize trade relations with Vietnam, an impediment for Bush as he seeks to reassure Southeast Asian leaders moving to liberalize trade (a revised version of the bill is expected to pass next month).

During his Asia trip, which also includes stops in Russia, Singapore and Indonesia, the President has addressed the issue of North Korea's nuclear program, saying that it would be a "grave threat" to the U.S. if the regime tried to sell its technology to another country or terrorist organization.

The transcript follows.

Wilkinson, who is based in Ho Chih Minh City, manages the Kennedy School's presence in Vietnam and coordinates policy dialogue with the Vietnamese government. He also oversees the Fulbright School, which provides public policy research and education.

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Los Angeles, Calif.: Is there any chance that in the future the U.S. will become the biggest partner in trade of Vietnam?

Ben Wilkinson: Well, the US already is Vietnam's largest trading partner. The rapidly growing economic relationship is the engine of bilateral ties. The US is the largest market for Vietnamese exports, and the US is one of the largest investors in Vietnam. Continuing to develop the economic relationship was a key issue that the President and the Vietnamese leadership discussed this afternoon. The potential is enormous.

For the US, Vietnam is a country which is clearly taking off-foreign investment is pouring into from around the region and Europe, it is market of 84 million people (the 13th largest country in the world) and it is in America's interest to ensure that its firms are on an equal footing with the rest of the world. For Vietnam, the American consumer market is extremely important, and American investment will be critical if Vietnam is to realize its aspirations of creating a knowledge-based economy.

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Memphis, Tenn.: Do you think that Bush's visit is a signal showing that the U.S. will try to pull Vietnam's economy out of the control of China? Some reporters said that Vietnamese officers really raised their voices to ask for an assistance from the U.S. Does the U.S. still try to lead Vietnam to the path of becoming a capitalist country?

Ben Wilkinson: I think that Vietnam and the US share the goal of seeing East Asia remain peaceful and stable. There is a clear consensus within the region that continued US engagement will be critical to retaining peace and stability. Beyond that Vietnam is genuinely sincere in its desire to maintain good relations with all of the region's powers. Vietnam will always maintain a good relationship with China. There has also been continued strengthening of Vietnam-Japan relations.

Regarding the Vietnamese economy, one of its strengths is that it is not overly dependent on any one market or investor. The US is the largest market for Vietnamese exports but Japan and the EU are also very important trading partners.

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Arlington, Va.: Can you comment on criticism that Vietnam has suppressed religious freedom in recent years?

Ben Wilkinson: I do not consider myself particularly knowledgeable about this issue. However, I would say that the US and Vietnamese governments are increasingly pursuing a dialogue about issues of mutual concern, including human rights and religious freedom. That this dialogue has produced results is reflected in the fact that Vietnam has recently been removed from the list of "countries of particular concern." Over the last year and longer the US government has consistently praised Vietnam for its cooperation on the issue; indeed I have been told by US officials involved in the dialogue that Vietnam was the only country on the list that made a serious effort to engage with the US on the issue. (Now, to be clear, I believe think it was very unfair for Vietnam to have been placed on that list in the first place.) Today in their joint statement President Bush and President Triet pledged to continue this dialogue.

The US and Vietnam are discussing other difficult issues. Agent Orange is an extremely painful subject in Vietnam. It affects former combatants from both sides, their families, and countless civilians. Despite longstanding cooperation in certain areas related to the war, such as accounting for missing personnel, until very recently there was very little productive dialogue between the American and Vietnamese governments on the Agent Orange issue. This has changed in the last year. The Ford Foundation in Hanoi deserves a lot of credit for helping promote dialogue. Ford supported research which identified certain areas with very levels of dioxin poison in the soil. These "hot spots" correspond to the locations of former US airbases where the chemicals were loaded onto planes for spraying missions. Several of these hot spots are located in major population centers, including Bien Hoa, north of Ho Chi Minh City, and Danang in Central Vietnam. Dioxin is entering the food chain through animal tissue.

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Palo Alto, Calif.: I remember reading that thousands of people came out to see Clinton when he visited in 2000. Why aren't more excited to see Bush in Vietnam?

Ben Wilkinson: Regarding Bush's reception in Vietnam, I don't think comparisons with President Clinton's visit in 2000 are particularly relevant. President Clinton was the first American head of state to visit Vietnam, and at that point the bilateral relationship was really in its infancy. It has flourished in the last six years, especially the economic relationship.

Certainly President Bush's trip receiving a great deal of media coverage in Vietnam.

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Ben Wilkinson: Please note that I posted answer before I was finished typing it. Completing my thought on dioxin:

Shifting the terms of the discussion, from wartime responsibility to a focus on the clear and present public health threat posed by dioxin poisoning has made it easier for both sides to talk. Recently the US Government through the EPA agreed to co-fund with the Ford Foundations measures to immobilize environmental dioxin at the Danang airport. This may signal a willingness on the part of the US government to assume some responsibility at least for the environmental clean-up aspect of dioxin poisoning.

The joint statement released in Hanoi by the US and Vietnamese governments today pledges to continue and enhance cooperation in addressing the issue of dioxin hot spots.

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Anonymous: Well, I'll be. Journalists seem to be resisting the temptation to say that Bush finally made it to Vietnam after working so hard to stay away. We both stayed out of the war with student deferments, though he is a bit older, so graduated (and thus lost his deferment), and, some say (certainly not me!) scrambled to find some way to at least reduce his changes of going to Vietnam (i.e., join the National Guard, which some friends of mine also did). I actually did make it to Vietnam (just Ho Chi Minh City) a few weeks ago, and you quickly realize that the overwhelming majority of people alive in Vietnam today were not alive during the war. My wife did say that an older Vietnamese man did scowl in my direction on our flight into HCMC when something I or my wife said indicated I was American. But, despite the usual propaganda at some monuments (e.g., Reunification Palace), the war seemed much further in the past there than it did in Cambodia, where the wounds of the Khmer Rouge rule are still somewhat raw.

Ben Wilkinson: Certainly the bilateral relationship has come a long way. This past Fourth of July I personally witnessed a vivid indicator of the strength of the bilateral relationship. The American Consulate General in Ho Chi Minh City (one of the largest and busiest in the world) held its annual Fourth of July reception. It was attended by hundreds of guests, including the senior leadership of the city government and provinces of the Mekong Delta, businesspeople, religious and civic leaders. The celebration happened to coincide with the visit of two American warships, so the party was dotted with American officers in their dress uniforms chatting with their Vietnamese counterparts. It was a moving reminder of how things have changed.

I have lived in Vietnam for many years, and I have never encountered any resentment based on my being an American. The Vietnamese are very sincere in their desire to move forward.

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Maryland: Many 1975 Vietnamese refugees are still vehemently anti-Communist and many are in Free Vietnam type movements here. How can the President try to normalize relations and still accommodate the concerns of post-war Vietnamese Americans?

Ben Wilkinson: The Vietnamese American community is an important component of the bilateral relationship, in a number of important respects. Economically, their role is significant; we cannot know the exact value of remittances sent back to Vietnam every year but certainly in the billions of dollars. Remittances are helping to finance Vietnam's economic growth. The Vietnamese government is making more of an effort to attract overseas Vietnamese back to invest in Vietnam. Vietnamese Americans are also contributing their skills and knowledge; for instance, Vietnamese American entrepreneurs from Silicon Valley are playing an important role in the country's nascent high-tech sector.

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San Jose, Calif.: Many Vietnamese Americans still keep in their hearts the hatred for the government in Vietnam. They do not realize Vietnam is in the process of integrating into the global economy. And the war was over, the U.S. and Vietnam have to head to the future. Based on your observation and your opinion, as an American, can you give them any advice? How should we think about Vietnam in this period of time?

Ben Wilkinson: You are right, Vietnam is rapidly integrating into the world economy. Vietnam's economic performance over the past two decades is extremely impressive. It is one of only twelve countries which have recorded average growth rates above 6% per year from 1985-2004. Poverty rates have dropped dramatically from over 60% in the early 1990s to under 20% today; no country in the world has alleviated poverty as successfully.

Intel's recent decision to invest $1 billion in Vietnam is another example of the rapid pace of Vietnam's integration. Intel does not make these decisions lightly. It is a real seal of approval for the country. (And to return to my earlier post about the positive role being played by Vietnamese Americans, the head of Intel Vietnam is Vietnamese American.)

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Bird flu: How much emphasis will be placed on bird flu? Is it ok to visit the Mekong Delta region now?

Ben Wilkinson: Well bird flu is certainly a global health threat. Thus far, Vietnam's response to bird flu has won plaudits from the international community. Vietnam also received high marks from international health authorities for the way it dealt with the SARS outbreak in 2003. Vietnam shared information with international health authorities from the beginning, and this openness helped avert what could have been a major crisis.

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Palo Alto, Calif.: Hey Ben,

You live over there. How do you communicate with local people? Do many people study English or is French still popular?

Ben Wilkinson: Today I think it is fair to say that English is the foreign language of choice for Vietnamese young people. Language academies offering after-school English classes are now ubiquitous in major cities and towns.

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Ben Wilkinson: Health is another area in which Vietnam has achieved real success. The infant mortality rates of China and Vietnam were the same in 1990 at 38 per 1000. By 2004, China had dropped to 26 and Vietnam to 17 per 1000, even though China is richer and spends more on medicine. [The US is at 7.] Vietnam's infant mortality is also lower than Brazil and Thailand, both of which are much richer countries. I think these figure speak to a level of social dynamism in stability in Vietnam which bodes well for its long-term prospects.

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Munich, Germany: The reaction of Japan and China to the North Korean nuclear test has been widely publicized. What was the reaction of the Vietnamese government and the people and press of Vietnam?

Ben Wilkinson: I believe that the Vietnamese government has expressed its support for the six party talks and for a nuclear weapons free Korean peninsula.

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Ben Wilkinson: Certainly on the brightest spots in the bilateral relationship today is in the area of education. Vietnam's participation in the Fulbright scholarship program predates the normalization of relations between the two countries. The US government also funds the Fulbright Economics Teaching Program in Ho Chi Minh City, operated by Harvard, which trains Vietnamese civil servants and executives in economics and public policy, where I am based. During his visit to Vietnam in 2000, President Clinton announced the establishment of the Vietnam Education Foundation, which awards scholarships to Vietnamese nationals to study science and technology related fields in the US.

Vietnam recently surpassed China in terms of per capita study abroad rate; many of these individuals are studying in the US.

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Bridgewater, Mass.: The Vietnamese seem to be having the kind of success that some Latin American countries have not had following U.S. prescriptions - do you see any signs of representatives from Nicaragua, say, looking for ideas?

Ben Wilkinson: Well, I don't know if Latin American countries are looking to Vietnam for policy ideas, but Vietnam is very committed to economic integration and participating in global trade. This is reflected in the country's successful effort to enter the WTO. Interestingly, I read recently that according to Pew Global Attitudes Project, 98% of Vietnamese surveyed believed that global trade and investment were good for their country. I think this speaks to the consensus in Vietnamese society about the importance of economic integration.

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Beijing, China: What do you think of China's interests in Vietnam? Will there any conflicts between China and the United States there?

Ben Wilkinson: As I noted earlier, I think that Vietnam will always be careful to ensure that it enjoys good relations with both China and the US.

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Bethesda, Md.: Being a relatively young American (30) with no personal experience with the war and having traveled to Vietnam as a tourist a two years ago, I find all this so interesting. We encountered nothing but pleasant welcomes while we were there -- I'm in more random photos taken by Vietnamese people than I can count (I guess being a 6 foot tall blonde American woman attracts attention). One older man in Hanoi even told us that he wished that the U.S. had won - that such an outcome would have avoided the privations of the late 1980s and early 1990s. The people did not, however, seem to hold the French or Chinese in any esteem. In any event, I think that Vietnam would welcome Americans if we don't come across as too arrogant.

Ben Wilkinson: My sense is that Americans who visit Vietnam are always pleasantly surprised with how well they are received in Vietnam.

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Springfield, Va.: Korea was a partner in the Viet Nam war. Their fighters were feared, any residual anger toward Korea?

Ben Wilkinson: Today Korea is an important investor in Vietnam and Korean brands--LG, Samsung, etc.--are ubiquitous. Among Vietnamese youths, Korean pop culture is very popular. So no, I am aware of no resentment towards Korea.

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St. Paul, Minn.: We have one the largest post war Vietnamese communities in the U.S. Is there an active effort or any encouragement to keep families connected to relatives who have settled in the U.S.?

Ben Wilkinson: In recent years there has been a concerted effort by the Vietnamese government to urge overseas Vietnamese to return to Vietnam and more and more are doing so.

Certainly it is easier than ever for families to keep in touch. Vietnam recently surpassed China in terms of per capita Internet penetration. High speed Internet (ADSL) is widely available for about $10 per month.

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washingtonpost.com: Thank you all for joining us today.

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