Post Politics Hour

washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion

Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

washingtonpost.com Political Blogger Chris Cillizza was online Friday, Dec. 8, at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest political news and The Post's coverage of politics.

Political analysis from Post reporters and interviews with top newsmakers. Listen live on Washington Post Radio or subscribe to a podcast of the show.

Read Chris Cillizza's blog, The Fix

The transcript follows.

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Chris Cillizza: Good morning. And happy Friday.

The big news heading into the weekend is Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's trip to New Hampshire. The event has already sold out and nearly 150 reporters will be there to cover it.

Obama-mania indeed.

Let's do it.

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Brooklyn, N.Y.: Al Gore, Al Gore, Al Gore. Will he run and if so what, when and how does he enter the race?

Chris Cillizza: Man, if I knew the answer to that question I'd be at a horse track somewhere.

If you take Gore at his word, he isn't going to run in 2008. He has said repeatedly that he has no plans to do so and from what I hear from well-connected Democrats he isn't doing anything behind the scenes that doesn't comport with his lack of interest.

HOWEVER, I think that if Obama and/or John Edwards fail to take off by mid-summer and Sen. Clinton looks like a lock for the nomination, Gore will come under considerable pressure from the liberal left to enter the race. Will he succumb? Not sure but it would be crazy to rule it out.

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Phoenixville, Pa.: Chris -

Both The Fix and the media list Iowa Guv Vilsack down near the bottom of '08 Dem prez contenders. Reminds me of the high school teacher who said "he's just a no-name guv from a small state - he won't go anywhere." That reference was to Clinton in '92. Are we discounting Vilsack (another centrist Dem) in the same way? Could he be the real dark horse of this race?

Chris Cillizza: Very good question.

I think conventional wisdom about politics is usually right but not always.

Clinton is one example. How about a little-known governor from a small northeastern state? Howard Dean was seen as an afterthought (at best) in the 2004 presidential race but rapidly became not just a serious candidate but the frontrunner for a time.

So while I think Clinton, Obama and Edwards comprise the top tier of '08 candidates at the moment, it's a mistake to dismiss people like Vilsack, Bill Richardson, Wesley Clark and others.

Presidential politics is a wild and unpredictable game. And thank God for that.

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Washington, D.C.: Interesting blog post and the choice to switch Obama and Edwards. I know that last time around the GOP was worried about one candidate: Edwards. White, Southern, Blue-Collar kinda guy. (Though, I'm from NC and I've seen his $million home, but I digress...) Anyway, do you think the Dems are largely ignoring his candidacy because he's being overshadowed by HRC and OB? Or because he's associated with Kerry? I'm not a giant Edwards fan, but doesn't he have the ability to win swing states as the others don't?

Chris Cillizza: For those of you who haven't gotten your Fix this morning (shame on you), this is a reference to today's Presidential Line rankings where we moved Edwards up to #2 and Obama down to #3.

I do believe that Edwards has been overshadowed somewhat by the Obama boomlet of late. I also think, however, that he boasts considerable strengths in the nomination fight.

Voters like John Edwards -- don't underestimate the importance of likeability in presidential politics. He has also done considerable spadework -- especially in the labor world -- to prepare for a 2008 bid. He is stronger than most people realize and I think he will be a factor whether or not Obama is in the running.

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washingtonpost.com: The Line: '08 Hopefuls Shift Into High Gear

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Chicago, Ill.: The Chicago Tribune editorial page two days ago "officially" said (as in, unnamed editorial from the board) that Obama should run for president in 2008 and that the "nation would benefit" from his candidacy. The Trib's board is historically very conservative. To me, this is the tipping point for the BO campaign. He has to run now. What's your opinion? Could he win not just the primary but the general election?

Chris Cillizza: I do believe that Obama will ultimately decide to run for president. That's based in part on my knowledge of conversations folks close to him have had with potential staff and part on a hunch that he sees himself as the right man at the right time.

As I noted today in The Fix, I think Obama still must answer a lot of questions about his candidacy. He hasn't ever faced a serious test (he won his 2004 primary largely because the two leading candidates destroyed one another). We are yet to see how he bounces back from a really tough story or a serious attack on his credibility from an opponent.

Obama is a uniquely skilled politician and will likely handle those attacks with grace and aplomb. But, until it happens we just don't know.

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London, UK: Chris - just wanted to say how happy I am that you are discussing the '08 elections. I'm so excited already and it's good to have a place to talk about it!

Chris Cillizza: Thank you for the vote of confidence. Good to know that folks on the other side of the pond are as excited for this race as I am!

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Bowie, Md.: I see that John Edwards is number 2 on your 2008 list. Why has no one brought up the point that he is a one term former senator who lost after his first term? In the end doesn't his inexperience make him ineligible?

Also, isn't Barack Obama a bit inexperienced to be President?

Chris Cillizza: Inexperience and its impact in voters' minds is the great unknown in the coming fight for the Democratic presidential nomination.

There are many people who believe experience -- especially in the Senate -- is overrated. As evidence, they point out that not a single Senator has been elected president since 1960 when John Kennedy did it. And, they note, that George W. Bush was a one-term governor in a state where the chief executive is notoriously weak when he was elected president in 2000.

That said, if Arizona Sen. John McCain is the Republican nominee there may be a premium on experience -- especially in the foreign policy realm -- for the Democratic nominee.

Of course is Gov. Mitt Romney -- who is finishing his first term in that office -- is the Republican nominee all bets on experience are off.

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Washington, D.C.: Obama will fizzle. He just does not have the experience. Two years as a Senator, and previous experience as a state legislator, law professor and lawyer just don't add up to much in my opinion. Plus, Senators (much less inexperienced Senators) usually can't make the leap to the White House (unless you are John F. Kennedy, and Obama is no John F. Kennedy). Also, do people really know where he stands or is he just a fresh face?

I am a little annoyed that people are taking him seriously as someone who could actually win the Presidency.

Chris Cillizza: A anti-Obama voice. Are their pro-Obama folks on the chat? Sound off.

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Pittsburgh, Pa.: Okay, I admit it. I'm a Democrat who doesn't believe Mrs. Clinton can get elected. All my crusty conservative male relatives are so sick of the Republicans that they are just looking for an excuse to vote for a Democrat-- but not Hillary. Why not a Jim Webb/Barack Obama ticket? Just suppose Webb runs, who in your opinion would be the ideal running mate? Thanks as always for these chats-- also enjoy your appearances on MSNBC.

Chris Cillizza: Wow. Jim Webb for PRESIDENT?

That seems to me a farfetched notion. I know Webb's confrontation with President Bush at the White House has elevated his profile and turned him into an iconic figure on the left but he hasn't even been sworn in yet.

Obviously, many Democrats have high hopes for Webb to reshape the image of the party as a decorated military veteran and former Republican. But, let's let the guy actually begin serving before we put him on a national ticket.

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Washington, D.C.: Is there any chance there is a darkhorse in the 2008? Presidential race, someone no one is even thinking about right now?

Chris Cillizza: Absolutely.

As I said above, conventional wisdom is often but not always right. And it seems like every cycle someone comes out of nowhere to be a viable candidate for the nomination. In 2004 it was Dean; in 2000 it was McCain.

Who will that be in 2008? No idea. But here's a few suggestions.

Republicans: Brownback, Hagel, South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford

Democrats: Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen, Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano.

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Princeton, N.J.: Another guy from Ill. had less experience than Obama. Guy called Honest Abe. And if you don't think there were serious problems for the country, both domestic & foreign, at that time, you'd better go back and read some history.

Chris Cillizza: Boo yah!

The Abe Lincoln comparison.

Obama-mania continues...

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Washington, D.C.: Definitely pro-Obama. Charisma goes a very long way-- positions can be constructed, experience can be earned (sometimes the hard way) but personality and likeability are built-in: you either have them or you don't.

Chris Cillizza: The pro-Obama forces are gathering.....

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Rockville, Md.: Pro Obama.

Fizzle? I don't think so. But not a sure win either. I think his main selling point is hope. Too many on the left are so negative that even if they are right they do not get much support. People want some hope to vote for. Look what it did for Kennedy. Or Wilkie.

Chris Cillizza: and now they are preparing a charge.....

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Chicago, Ill.: Wouldn't a crowded GOP field, with several candidates (McCain, Brownback, Romney) fighting for the social conservative vote, make a Giuliani candidacy really viable given the primary calendar? If he makes a serious run no one will be to the left of him so let's say he picks up 20-25% of the caucus/primary vote there and picks up a few more votes from people who may not like his views on social issues but like what he did after 9/11 and his style. Couldn't Giuliani end up winning several early states before the religious right coalesces behind one candidate, giving him strong momentum going into states like Illinois, NY and Cal, where moderate GOP voters are more prevalent?

Chris Cillizza: While the Obama/not Obama fight rages among Democrats, let's switch the focus to Republicans.

Rudy Giuliani is by far the most difficult candidate in the GOP field to figure out. On the one hand, he is at or near the top in every primary and national poll and carried the aura of the hero of Sept. 11. On the other, he is a pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, pro-gun control candidate running for the nomination of a party that is none of those things.

It's possible that McCain/Romney/Brownback could fracture the socially conservative vote enough to allow Giuliani to shoot the gap in a state like Iowa but that seem somewhat unlikely to me. Neither McCain nor Romney are the first choice of social conservatives and while they will get some support among that voting bloc, they will both also appeal to the more centrist wing of the party.

I'm just not sure that a Republican candidate can win a primary fight, which is typically dominated by the most conservative of voters, by touting his centrist/liberal credentials.

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Responding to Bowie, Md.: John Edwards didn't lose after his first term. He didn't run again.

Chris Cillizza: Exactly right.

The race to replace Edwards was between Democrat Erskine Bowles, who has run and lost a Senate race in 2002, and Republican Rep. Richard Burr. In a good year for Republicans nationally, Burr won the seat.

Edwards insiders insist that he would have won a second term if he had decided to run although polling at the time showed only middling approval numbers.

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Washington: You and others generally leave Jeb Bush out of the 2008 presidential discussion. Could you explain how much work he would need to do to get into contention (staffing, organization, etc) and what how short his time table is? Given his family's connections, could he decide to run in late-summer 2007 and still have time to organize a viable campaign?

Chris Cillizza: Jeb Bush will be a major factor in the 2008 race though I don't think as a presidential candidate.

Romney made waves yesterday with the announcement that Florida Lt. Gov. Toni Jennings as well as former state party chair Al Cardenas were joining his presidential campaign in waiting. He has several other Jeb Bush insiders already on board.

McCain isn't ceding the Jeb Bush world to Romney by any means, however, and is aggressively courting not only the governor but his inner circle of strategists and fundraisers.

I;ve heard some rumors of a McCain-Bush ticket but it's a little far down the road to take any ticket talk terribly seriously.

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Ames, Iowa: Any chance Brian Schweitzer will run for pres? or be on the top tier of VP picks? It would help the Dems build on their momentum in the Rocky Mountain west.

Chris Cillizza: Ah yes.

In my list of potential darhorses I should have listed Schweitzer. I could see him winding up on a national ticket in 08

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Burlington, Vt.: On the Republican side, are there any governors or anyone, really, with a serious chance of stopping the McCain juggernaut?

Chris Cillizza: Well, there is a guy named Mitt Romney who I think has a chance at stopping the McCain momentum.

As I said above, I think there is some chatter about a southern governor getting in the race -- Sanford and Texas Gov. Rick Perry are floated -- but no one appears to be stepping into that void.

On a side note, I wonder if Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour is kicking himself for announcing he would not run for president earlier this year. The field is shaping up perfectly for someone like him -- although his past as a lobbyist would surely have been fodder for his opponents.

I think McCain remains the frontrunner. But, Romney is not far behind.

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Santa Fe, N.M.: Absolutely no way Giuliani can win the Republican nomination. No way! He is a Democrat who switched to the Republican party in order not to get knocked out of the NYC mayoral primaries. That's all. The best he could do is pick up enough steam to then bolt the party and run as a third party candidate. He's pro-choice, anti-gun, pro gay, he's been divorced three thousand times, he has affairs in public, he's been filmed crossdressing at a party, he's from New York City for pete's sake! No Republican in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, et al is going to vote for him.

Chris Cillizza: This is a very common theme when talking to Republicans about Giuliani. Most insiders dismiss him as less relevant than even long shots like Brownback and Hagel.

I'm not there yet although I do agree his high poll ratings at the moment should not be overinterpreted as a sign of strength. The nomination is decided in a handful of states not nationwide so national polls aren't all that predictive.

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Chris Cillizza: Folks that's all I have time for today...please check out The Fix's Friday presidential Line and offer your own thoughts.

As always thanks for letting me be a part of a great political discussion. Until next time....

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