Post Politics Hour

washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion

Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

washingtonpost.com Political Blogger Chris Cillizza was online Wednesday, Jan. 3, at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest news in politics.

Political analysis from Post reporters and interviews with top newsmakers. Listen live on Washington Post Radio or subscribe to a podcast of the show.

The transcript follows.

Read Chris Cillizza's blog, The Fix

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Chris Cillizza: Welcome to 2007! Politics has already kicked into high gear with the news that an internal campaign memo for former New York City Rudy Giuliani had been leaked. In it, a Giuliani adviser handicaps Hizzoner's chances at the nomination and lays out a relatively detailed fundraising plan to collect $100 million this year alone.

Today bring Gov. Mitt Romney's (R-Mass.) first formal step toward the presidential race with the establishment of an exploratory committee.

And, we are all waiting with bated breath to see when Democratic Sens. Barack Obama (Ill.)and Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.)decide to make their '08 intentions known.

Let's get to it.

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Greer, S.C.: Happy New Year, Chris! You da man.

My question is about Giuliani. Everyone seems to be saying that McCain is the front-runner for the Republican nomination, but most every poll I've seen actually shows Hizonner to be leading McCain by a few points. Is there a sense among the political class that Giuliani won't be able to make it past the socially conservative voters in the primaries once there is greater focus on his liberal stances on social issues?

Also, one question about McCain. I have a sense that his star has fallen a bit somewhat this year. I used to think he would be nearly unbeatable in a general election, but I don't feel that way anymore. This is just a gut feeling on my part, so I wonder if there's any hard evidence or chattering among the experts that might support it.

Chris Cillizza: Lots and lots (and lots) of question about Giuliani and his prospects.

Giuliani's chances are tough to gauge. On one hand, he is perhaps the most respected Republican in the country thanks to his handling of the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. The adulation with which he is held in the Republican party explains his high poll numbers both in early states and nationally.

On the other hand, Giuliani is considerably more liberal on social issues like abortion, gun control and gay rights than the average Republican primary/caucus voter.

In recent history, no candidate with social views similar to Giuliani's has stood any chance of winning the nomination. But, no candidate holding those views has ever held Giuliani's profile as the hero of the most searing event in recent American history.

The central question of Giuliani's candidacy is whether voters overlook his social views because of his 9/11 reputation or whether his support of abortion rights and gay rights is a hurdle too high for Giuliani to clear in the mind of socially conservative voters.

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Capitol Hill: I've long had the theory that Giuliani has to "go big or not at all" -- that expectations are so high, and that the obstacles are so formidable, that he has to raise more money than anyone else, recruit a staff as strong as those of McCain or Romney, build a respectable grassroots organization (he's way behind there), or else he might as well not bother. I think that there's much in this memo that could support the "not at all" outcome.

Chris Cillizza: Among party insiders who are not yet affiliated with a candidate there is still a healthy amount of skepticism about whether or not Giuliani ultimately runs.

The thinking goes that after a career spent almost entirely in public service, he has spent the last few years building an extremely lucrative consulting practice that he may be loath to leave.

Giuliani is also a political pragmatist at heart, these insiders say, and he will ultimately recognize that he simply cannot overcome his liberal social views to win the nomination.

I believe Giuliani will spend the next six months or so seeing how much money he can raise for the race and gauging how large a problem his social views will be in the primary race.

At the end of that period, I think he will make a final decision. This is a very different process than some of Giuliani's competitors -- like Sen. John McCain or Romney -- who are almost certain to run for president in 2008 regardless of the events over the next six months.

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Washington, D.C.: Chris, Why is everyone referring to internal campaign memo for Giuliani as a leak? Giuliani's camp is saying that it was copied by someone outside his organization. If I break into the White House and steal and publish documents that's not a leak.

Chris Cillizza: True.

But if you break into the White House and steal a document and then send said document to a media organization then it is a leak.

That's what happened here, according to the Giuliani campaign. They allege that during a campaign trip this fall, a group of bags was removed from a private plane that the Mayor was using. All of the bags but one were quickly returned. That one bag, which contained this internal memo, was missing for several days during which time someone photocopied the document.

It was then leaked to the New York Daily News by a rival campaign.

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Takoma Park, Md.: I haven't seen this Giuliani concern expressed yet. Am I the only one who thinks it is a bad idea to allow terrorist acts to determine who runs for President?

Giuliani would never have the name recognition he does if it were not for Al Qaeda.

It just seems like a very bad idea to play tit-for-tat with Al Qaeda when choosing a President.

Chris Cillizza: I don't think the Giuliani campaign would put it quite like that.

Because Sept. 11, 2001 was such a touchstone in American life -- it fundamentally altered the way we perceive ourselves and our place in the world -- Giuliani's ties to that event create a powerful and lasting image in the minds of many voters.

National security is likely to be a major issue in 2008 and, argue Giuliani backers, the former Mayor is the person best equipped to keep the country safe from future attacks.

It's a compelling argument but one fraught with problems as well -- from Giuliani's stormy personal life to his social positioning.

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Washington, D.C.: You are right about the numbers on Giuliani being up because of 9-11. We need to remember that most Americans do not know about his political stands and his dismal record as a mayor (not to mention his personal life). He will never make it with that baggage.

Chris Cillizza: Here's one take on Giuliani's chances.

While I think it remains to be seen how damaging Giuliani's personal life and social views are to his candidacy, there is little doubt that rival campaigns will focus heavily on these matters over the next year.

In the now famous campaign memo, the author writes that Giuliani can expect $100 million spent against him on those negatives, which will be painted in the "worst possible light."

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Galesburg, Ill.: Am I the only one who's tired of hearing about what a hero Giuliani was after 9/11? The way I see it Giuliani did his job. It seemed like he was doing so much more because the President and the then missing Vice President were doing so little. Giuliani deserves credit for doing what he was supposed to do, fine, but let's stop painting him as some sort of superhero because he stepped up and directed traffic.

Chris Cillizza: Lots of anti-Rudy sentiment out there today.....

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Pittsburgh, Pa.: When is the LATEST that someone should declare candidacy for president? I am assuming that it has to be pretty soon, given the amount of time, personnel, and money it takes to run.

Chris Cillizza: Very good question.

Each presidential cycle candidates announce earlier and earlier -- largely due to the logistical constraints of building a national staff and raising the tens (or maybe even hundreds) of millions necessary to run a campaign.

That's why I expect Obama, Clinton, McCain and Romney to be in this race before the month is over. All four are considered top tier candidate for their party's nomination but can't afford to wait too long to begin the formal process of building a national campaign.

There are exceptions to every rule. Former Vice President Al Gore, for example, has the luxury of waiting. There's little doubt that a Gore candidacy would attract massive amounts of attention and excitement within the Democratic party and because he has already run nationally once before he would face fewer problems in building early state organizations.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, too, can likely afford to wait a bit longer to announce a bid because of his national name recognition and fundraising capacity.

But, I don't think either man can wait much longer than this summer to make their intentions known. They may not need to formally announce until the fall but they have to signal their interest in a race long before that.

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Minnesota: Giuliani seems a perfect match for the Democratic party. Any chance he'll switch parties?

Chris Cillizza: Um, no.

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Arlington, Va.: With Evan Bayh out of the race, where does that really leave Mark Warner? There are rumors that he's thinking about getting back in the game, though in Virginia they also think he's strongly leaning for SEN or GOV in 2008 or 2009. Is he out of the running at this point, given that Vilsack seems the likely guy to pick up the moderate/conservative Dems in Iowa who don't want someone named Clinton?

Chris Cillizza: As soon as Bayh dropped out of the '08 race, the rumors of a Warner comeback began.

I don't put much credence in them. Warner left the race for his own personal reasons not because he thought there were too many moderate/conservative candidates in the field.

I do think that he will run for state office sometimes in the next two years. If Sen. John Warner (R) decides not to run for re-election in 2008, Mark Warner will come under considerable pressure to run for the open seat. (Remember he ran a campaign against John Warner in 1996.)

In his heart of hearts, I think Mark Warner would prefer to succeed Gov. Tim Kaine (D) in 2009. Warner made very clear in the finals days of 2005 that he loved being governor and would gladly have served a second term if he was not term limited out.

With his sky high popularity ratings in Virginia, Warner will be a formidable candidate regardless which race he chooses.

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14850: I am a Democrat who takes voting seriously so I read Obama's first book over the past (vacation for me) week. I was stunned at the honest self-reflection, thought and seriousness embodied in it. If anything, it put my doubts about the Senator's lack of experience at rest. Have you read it? Any thoughts in comparison with Senator Clinton's obviously ghost written tomes?

Chris Cillizza: I have not read it -- a problem I am planning to remedy in the next few weeks.

For those who want a crash course on Obama's writings, make sure to check out Lois Romano's story in today's Post.

Obama's rapid rise in politics has been fueled by the idea that he is a new kind of politician -- honest, forthright and above partisanship. While I think some of this is overblown, there is little question that Obama's image nationally is one that any politician would kill for.

The question I have is whether that image can withstand the brutal back and forth of a political campaign. Should Obama decide to run, he would inevitably begin to be viewed as more of a traditional politician and some of the shine would begin to come off of him. How would he bounce back from a tough political gut punch? I don't know the answer but am very interested in finding out.

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washingtonpost.com: Effect of Obama's Candor Remains to Be Seen, ( Post, Jan. 3)

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Washington, D.C.: Totally unnecessary nitpick here -- you say Gore has run nationally once before but you forget he ran in '88. He's run twice before, not including his VP campaigns.

Chris Cillizza: Not unnecessary. Totally accurate. And thanks for keeping me on point.

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Washington, D.C.: John Edwards appears to be resurrecting his populist message; however, he made his candidacy announcement in New Orleans, now a symbol not of the middle class but of the poor and disenfranchised. Can an appeal to end poverty gain traction in a primary?

Chris Cillizza: I've had several conversations with strategists for Edwards' potential primary opponents over the last few days and almost to a person they praised the rollout of his candidacy.

As I wrote on The Fix, his plan to dominate national media coverage between Christmas and New Years hit a snag when former President Gerald Ford passed away but Edwards still managed to drum up a number of quite positive news stories.

I think Edwards will broaden his poverty message out into one of economic populism -- Democrats are the defenders of the middle class, Republicans of the upper class.

That messaging worked quite effectively in 2006 for Senate candidates like Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Claire McCaskill in Missouri. Whether or not it will translate into a presidential campaign remains to be seen.

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New York, N.Y.: Chris, while there has indeed been a lot of anti-Giuliani sentiment expressed in today's discussion, you rule the questions/comments. Why not post some McCain comments (I've sent two already)? Please don't tell me you (like many of the media) are among "McCain's base."

Chris Cillizza: Your wish is my command.

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New York City: Recently MSNBC's Chris Matthews, after looking (and shaking his head) at polls in which Hillary Clinton beats John McCain, opined that the -media- might just be McCain's base.

Do you think this statement rings true? If not, why do you think McCain keeps getting pegged as the GOP frontrunner, when polls say otherwise?

Chris Cillizza: And more on McCain....

Do I think McCain enjoys a good relationship with the media? Sure. Do I think that relationship somehow means that he gets a pass that other candidates don't? No.

McCain did a very smart thing in 2000 by essentially running an all-access campaign; he let the media into every facet of his life, giving reporters notebook stuffed full of colorful anecdotes and poignant quotes. It's not terribly surprising then that McCain got lots of coverage during that campaign.

The insurgent has turned into the frontrunner in 2008, and I would bet McCain is being advised strongly not to replicate the all-access strategy of 2000.

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Iowa: The Fix notes: Just eight percent of likely Iowa Democratic caucus goers have yet to pick a candidate, while 14 percent of Iowa Republicans are similarly uncommitted. I realize that this statement is based on polling a year in advance, but I know a lot of undecided likely caucus goers (including myself)?

Chris Cillizza: This question makes reference to the latest posting on The Fix, which, as always, I urge you to immediately go and read if you have not already done so.

In it, I look at polls conducted by the American Research Group in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

I was surprised by how few voters in these early voting states describe themselves as undecided on a candidate in 2008. It's what I believe makes the 2008 campaign very different from past open presidential races.

There are so many known commodities in the race -- from Clinton to Obama to McCain to Giuliani -- that it will be more difficult than in cycles past for an unknown candidate to emerge over the next year. There simply aren't that many undecided voters to woo.

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washingtonpost.com: The Fix: Parsing the Polls: The First Four '08 States

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Washington, D.C.: Hey Chris....as a side question I have recently become hooked on the Chris Matthews show. I really really like him!

I have seen you on his show several times and enjoyed your back and forth.

In your opinion is he the most knowledgeable person doing a political talk show?

He really knows how to pull from history and appears to really understand politics.

Chris Cillizza: It's good to know that the staff of "Hardball" is on the chat.

I love Chris. He really enjoys the rough and tumble of politics just like I do. And he knows the history of this town -- a sordid, truth is stranger than fiction story.

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Rolla, Mo.: Help me, Chris! I thought I could give myself a break from my addiction to politics after the mid-terms, but I fell off the wagon quickly. Any twelve step program for this stuff?

Chris Cillizza: First of all, hailing from Rolla, Missouri you are probably doomed to be a political junkie. That town (as I am sure you know) is the home of the Carnahan clan, which has produced a governor, a senator, a Member of Congress and a Secretary of State. So, you may be stuck.

What I would suggest is to embrace the addiction as I have done. Given the wide variety of things you can be addicted to in this world, politics is actually not all that bad.

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Chris Cillizza: Folks that's all I have time for today...thanks for spending an hour (or so) with me.

Make sure to check out The Fix for the latest and greatest news about the 2008 presidential race as well as the House, Senate and governors' races to come.

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