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Paul Kane
washingtonpost.com Congressional Blogger
Wednesday, January 31, 2007; 11:00 AM

Don't want to miss out on the latest in politics? Start each day with The Post Politics Hour. Join in each weekday morning at 11 a.m. as a member of The Washington Post's team of White House and Congressional reporters answers questions about the latest in buzz in Washington and The Post's coverage of political news.

washingtonpost.com congressional blogger Paul Kane was online Wednesday, Jan. 31, at 11 a.m. ET to discuss the latest news in politics.

Read Paul Kane's blog, Capitol Briefing

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The transcript follows.

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Paul Kane: Hello washingtonpost.com readers. I'm Paul Kane, the author of our new Congressional blog, Capitol Briefing.

For those who've been reading the blog, you'll know that I'm working mostly up inside the halls and lobbies of the Capitol trying to report on the inside mechanics of the reasons behind the decision-making process of the 110th Congress. We're only a couple weeks into this venture, so it's still new and fresh, sort of like spring training for baseball. (Only a couple weeks till pitchers and catchers report, FYI.) So keep reading.

Now, on to your questions. Looks like there is a lot of focus on Iraq, but also Iraq and the troop surge as it relates to the '08 race. Play ball.

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Richmond, Va.: Since only 26 percent-30 percent of the public supports Bush's war, what is in it for the Republicans in Congress (specifically senators at this moment) to anguish over what kind of nonbinding anti-troop/Iraqi war proposal to support? In other words, why are these lawmakers still supporting a president, who, by unrelenting daily accounts, has taken us into and presided over a disastrous war? Are they fighting for the president or themselves?

Paul Kane: Great question. There is a sizable chunk of the House and Senate GOP conferences who are speaking their minds now against this war, some for political reasons, others from deep seated beliefs that have been muted the previous few years. But many are standing by Bush, and I think it's important to realize that no matter how unpopular the war is, Republicans know that they are tied to him by the simple virtue of party affiliation and their previous six years of votes in support of this White House. To cut and run on Bush now, after 6 years of near unanimous, unquestioned support, would be fairly hypocritical. These are the same folks who had such a field day with John Kerry's I-voted-for-it-before-I-voted-against-it ethos in '04.

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Washington: Who is the most impressive freshman member of congress so far, in either the House or Senate? I'd imagine it'd be Webb after his response to the State of the Union, but what do you think?

Paul Kane: In the Senate Webb clearly has the most upside, to borrow a phrase most commonly associated with the NBA draft. but remember, this is a guy who's policy positions are largely unknown and untested on anything other than military affairs. Several years from now, after some really testy domestic issue battles, Webb may find himself fairly isolated in that Democratic caucus. As for House freshmen, I think there are so many Democratic freshmen that it's difficult to know which ones will emerge as true leaders. If this question were left up to the female reporters who cover the Hill, the runaway favorite for rising start would be Ellsworth of Indiana! (P.S. -- watch out for Kevin McCarthy of California on the House GOP side, who took Bill Thomas' old seat. I've met him, he's absorbed lots of Thomas' intelligence, minus any of the old chairman's acerbic personality.)

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New York: A front page story on the GOP divide over a Senate resolution states: "Vice President Cheney and senior military officials attended a Republican policy lunch yesterday, which turned into a raucous debate about the various resolutions." Call me crazy, but shouldn't "senior military officials" be doing other things besides attending policy lunches? Like, oh, running the war?!

Paul Kane: Cheney himself routinely attends these lunches, which take place every Tuesday at 12:30 in the stately Mansfield Room on the 2nd floor of the Capitol just off the Senate chamber. If senior military officials were on hand, it was almost certainly because they were asked to be there by Senate Republicans. (FYI: Cheney almost never speaks at these lunches, I've been told by a dozen or more participants. He sits at one of the tables in the corner, and throughout the lunch if anyone needs to ask him a question or seek a White House favor, they quietly walk over and ask for a favor.)

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Rochester, N.Y.: As someone who observes the Senate and the House, do you think Joe Biden has any chance in 2008? Is it fair to see he is among the most, ahem, long-winded Senators we have? How about other Congressmen running in 2008 -- beyond those everyone knows about? Are there any "sleepers" -- candidates we've never heard of who strike you as impressive?

washingtonpost.com: Biden Enters Race for 2008 Presidential Bid (Post, Jan. 31)

Paul Kane: Full disclosure: Biden and me have bonded many a time over the fate of the University of Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens football team, as we're both Blue Hen alumni. So I like the guy, and it's really hard for anyone not to like the guy. Remember, he was the main eulogist at Strom Thurmond's funeral when everyone else in Congress was running from Strom's legacy after the Trent Lott fiasco.

But does Biden have a chance? Wow. Clinton and Obama right now are sucking up the oxygen among national press and big-money people, while John Edwards is sucking up a lot of oxygen in Iowa. Hard to see Biden or Dodd or Richardson being competitive with them, but there may just be room for one of those three guys to become a factor, since each of them has a very deep global affairs resume ... and the frontrunners are all newcomers to international affairs.

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Fayetteville, N.C.: Okay, if we're doing personalities: What do people think of McHenry and his TunaGate and other issues? I see even Glen Beck is calling him silly, but he picked up a pretty cherry position. Is he garnering respect?

Paul Kane: That's the "Something's Fishy" stickers that McHenry and a bunch of House GOP folks were wearing on the floor last week to complain about favorable treatment given to American Samoa (home to some major tuna industry producers) in the minimum wage bill in the House.

It's a silly thing, but it's exactly the sort of silly thing that the Gephardt-Pelosi Dems did for 12 years in the minority. Here's the thing to watch: one of Gephardt's old standbys was the staged walkout of the chamber after a controversial vote. Oh, the horror, Republicans thought. Once the GOP stages a walkout, we'll know they're reading from the House Dem minority playbook.

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Germantown, Md.: I saw Arlen Specter yesterday lamenting over the lack of congressional oversight of the NSA wiretapping, the Iraq war and the war on terror. Why didn't he hold any hearings when he was chairman of a Senate committee?

Paul Kane: Specter was one of the busiest men in the nation in the 109th Congress, handling 3 separate Supreme Court confirmations (remember Miers) as well as the constitutional showdown over judicial filibusters in spring '05, and before that, bankruptcy reform. He did hold some hearings in '06 about domestic intelligence gathering, but was not as forceful as many on the left would have liked him to be. New Chairman Leahy will obviously take a different approach on those issues.

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Fayetteville, N.C.: I was just looking at the vote in the House on the alternative energy bill. I was surprised that some Republicans backed by oil voted for the bill. Anything I'm missing about it? Thanks.

Paul Kane: This entire global warming/energy independence issue is The Sleeper Issue of the year, as far as I'm concerned. Now that folks are linking global warming and energy independence to Osama and 9/11 and terrorists, it's got legs. Watch this one closely, as even Republicans like McCain and Lindsey Graham are staking out positions on this one.

And, uh, watch out for a certain former veep at the Oscars. If Gore wins, the Gore in '08 movement will explode.

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Washington: The rap against a Clinton candidacy was that she couldn't win anything Kerry couldn't win. Meaning, she wouldn't do better in Ohio of Florida than Kerry did ... and she was just as polarizing. Has that situation really changed?

Paul Kane: They dynamic has changed since November '04 because the Iraq war has become sooooo unpopular, not to mention the GOP field for '08 has imploded, leaving a front-running Republican field in which no one has any substantial support among the conservative base. At this moment, if you read the polls, both Clinton and Obama are beating McCain in a general election match up. A lot has changed in the last 2 years. Republicans are fully aware of this, and that's why you've seen so many trying to craft their own position on the troop surge issue.

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Alexandria, Va.: Who is more scared/nervous right now -- Sen. Coleman, Sen. Sununu or Rex Grossman?

Paul Kane: Norm Coleman. Check out the stats on the '06 Minnesota Senate race, in which the GOP got a top-tier candidate in Mark Kennedy. They were so pumped when he jumped into that race back in '05 and touted that as a big pickup opportunity. Kennedy got 38 percent of the vote in November -- 38 percent!

Norm's running scared, so scared that he's been diving into Dumpsters lately!

(P.S. -- I don't think Rex is scared of much these days, but look out for the droopy-dog Manning face on Sunday. My money's on the upset, Bears 24-10. Which Illinois presidential contender will claim it as a validation for their campaign -- Obama or Clinton?)

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Wilmington, N.C.: Cheney, at the Senate lunches, sounds like Don Corleone at his daughter's wedding.

Paul Kane: Sorry, not gonna touch that one. Um, yeah. Not gonna touch that one.

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Webb and "domestic issues": I think you're making two wrong assumptions. First, Webb is not the staunch social conservative some in the press are making him out to be. Second, this future you envision where we're suddenly seriously engaged in issues other than the war is a very long way off. Iraq is not the elephant in the room anymore. It's beyond that; it's the QEII in the teapot, the moon in the mouse hole. Until troops withdraw, Iraq is the uber-issue; the thing above all things.

Paul Kane: I'm not contending Webb is a staunch conservative, I'm saying that these are issues he's never really dealt with, except maybe in his books. He went to the Naval Academy, went to Vietnam, worked for then-Secretary of the Navy John Warner 35 years ago in the Pentagon, ended up in the Reagan administration in the pentagon in the '80s. This isn't the background of a guy who's likely to attend cocktail parties with Ralph Neas of People for the American Way and Kate Michelman, former head of NARAL. I'm just saying, keep an eye out for Webb in years to come: lots of upside, but also a potential powder keg.

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Boston: Interesting comment on folks like Biden, Dodd and others who have been in the Senate for years doing a great job, now running for President. While they may be second-tier, I think Clinton or whoever gets nominated should consider one of them as their Vice President choice. Biden on the ticket won't hurt. He was strong in his comments about Iraq and long-winded or not has something to say.

Paul Kane: Biden's good for three electoral votes in Delaware, which should be in the Dem column anyway -- same goes for Dodd.

If the nominee is someone with senatorial experience, look for them to marry up the ticket with a gubernatorial type. Think ex-Old Dominion Gov. Mark Warner or current Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine, someone in that mold.

As for the GOP, if it's McCain, he's gonna go younger and gubernatorial in his veep ticket. If it's Romney, he'll need to do what W did in '00 and pick someone who's strong on national security issues. Hey, how about a Romney-Cheney ticket!

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Boca Raton, Fla.: Is it time to bring up term limits again?

Paul Kane: House Republicans probably would tell you that they just experienced the best version of term limits: the ballot box. No current movement for term limits.

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Claverack, N.Y.: Who will be in the negotiating room when the differences between the House minimum wage hike and the Senate version get hammered out? Can Pelosi get a version with tax cuts through the House?

Paul Kane: The key figure in the min-wage conference will be Ted Kennedy, chairman of the Senate committee overseeing this issue. Despite his obvious liberal positioning in the Dem caucus, this is the guy who got the Senate Dems, White House and then-House Education Committee Chairman John Boehner (R-Ohio) to come to an agreement on No Child Left Behind.

In fact, on domestic issues, the relationship between Kennedy and Boehner may be the single most important relationship to watch in the 110th Congress. Those two are pals. Big time. They run a charity event every year together raising money for poor kids in DC so that they can go to Catholic schools.

And next week, they are co-MCing the Washington Press Club's dinner, known informally as the congressional correspondents dinner (a JV version of the White House Correspondents Dinner). They know each other well, and may be able to craft deals that get things accomplished.

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Laurel, Md.: Is Biden's plagiarism of Neil Kinnock likely to become an issue in his run for the presidency?

Paul Kane: Since the Biden issue happened in the fall of '87, we've had a presidential candidate admit to having multiple affairs on 60 Minutes, then have that president get impeached for having an affair in the Oval Office with an intern. In '00, our current president declined to answer questions about specific drug uses, and he then led us into a war on grounds (WMD) which have now been proven to have been based on inaccurate intelligence. Oh, and one of the leading contenders for the Dem '08 nomination has written a book in which he admits to doing a little "blow." I don't think a borrowed speech from a British MP 20 years ago measures up to those issues.

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Salinas, Calif.: Paul, you proposed a Romney-Cheney for the GOP in '08 but didn't specify which Cheney you would prefer. Mary or Liz?

Paul Kane: How about Romney-Bush? Not Jeb, but his son. Anyone know how old that kid is? Would he be eligible. He's good looking, fluent in Spanish, from the electorally loaded Sunshine State.

Kidding. But Romney will clearly need a strong hand in international affairs as his veep.

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Roseland, NJ: What are your sources for your blog's "Hagel might run as an independent with Mike Bloomberg" story? That seems preposterous to me. Hagel easily could run in the GOP if he wanted; he's a mainstream conservative who's going to be self-evidently correct on the war in a few months. What would be the point? To run on Bloomberg's dime? Mike doesn't seem the type to spend billions of dollars on becoming vice president.

Paul Kane: Hagel raised this issue himself, half jokingly, with The Post's Shailagh Murray in a profile she wrote last week. And check the transcripts of interviews Hagel has done in the last few weeks -- C-SPAN and Face the Nation -- and you'll see how he hasn't emphatically denied this possibility, running as an independent.

P.S. -- A Hagel-Bloomberg ticket would be free to spend $1 billion or more of Bloomberg's personal money on the race. Ah, you're saying, now it's not so far-fetched. Yep.

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Washington: You say you went to Delaware. Do you have any insight on how one can cut through the state and avoid the toll when I-95 is bumper to bumper on a Sunday afternoon?

Paul Kane: Tolls are a very personal issue for me. I like dodging them. I'm guessing this question was posed by someone from the Garden State. I hope you expend some energy on killing off the tolls on the Parkway. Terrible.

(Take the Elkton, Md. exit -- last exit on 95 before Delaware -- then head north on Elkton Road, turn right on Route 2, right on 896, and you'll pass a McDonalds, Dunkin' Donuts and then hit 95 again. Money saved.)

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Chevy Chase, Md.: We hear a lot about the disillusionment that Senate Republicans, especially those from more moderate-to-liberal states, feel with President Bush. How do House Republicans feel? Are many worried about 2008 already? Do you expect a significant number of retirements?

Paul Kane: I don't have the answer on the retirement watch, but I do know that in '96 Democrats faced tons of retirements in both the House and Senate from veterans who had no interest serving in the minority. House and Senate R's are very, very fearful of this issue, while Dems are not.

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Rochester, Minn: The Republicans have imploded Excuse me, the votes are a year away. There is time for a person to come out over 35 percent or even 40 percent to lock up the conservative base. That hardly is imploding. If not McCain or Rudy, then who?

Paul Kane: There is little doubt that there will be a conservative standard-bearer who will emerge on the right side of the '08 race. People are now closely watching Sam Brownback, Senator from Kansas. But the truth is, the GOP has never nominated the leading movement conservative, that person -- think Buchanan in '96, Robertson in '88, Reagan in '76 -- has been the one who won a primary or two and helped shape the debate. Other candidates for this slot in the primary: Mike Huckabee of Arkansas.

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Richmond, Va.: Has there been any negative feedback by Democrats on Hillary Clinton's humorous remark in Iowa about experience with "evil and bad men?" Thank you.

Paul Kane: Well, if anyone watched Daily Show the other night they would have seen Stewart beating up on her pretty bad about that comment. Let's see if she goes on the show and "decks" him, as she promised to do to anyone who attacks her.

Alright, it's been a blast, folks. Remember, keep reading Capitol Briefing, along with your other regularly scheduled Washingtonpost.com political blogs, The Fix and The Sleuth.

Hope to back here sometime soon doing this again.

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