K Street

K Street columnist Jeffrey Birnbaum was online to discuss the intersection of business, politics and government on Tuesday, March 27.

A transcript follows.

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Jeffrey Birnbaum: Hello everyone.

Thanks for writing in.

We have a lot to discuss today, but I would like to start by wishing the very best to Tony Snow.

Tony and I worked together a lot at Fox News, where I am a contributor.

He is a wonderful man, a great optimist and one of the best broadcasters I have ever had a chance to see.

He is also a family guy. His love for his wife and children is miraculous and I hope that their strength, and the prayers of his many friends and colleagues, like me, will help him to beat this terrible disease.

All my best to you Tony.

Now, onto the questions.

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Lawrence, Kan.: What's your guess (or learned opinion) that the Senate will actually drag its campaign reporting system into the 21st Century, so we can see which interests are contributing in a timely manner?

Jeffrey Birnbaum: You are referring to the amazing fact that the senate still reports its campaign contributions on paper. The time lag between translating that into usable and accessible electronic form is sometimes weeks long. That is ridiculous, of course, and I wrote a column about it last year.

Back then, the effort died to force senators to file electronically like the House does. Will it die again? I think there's a better chance that the updating of the system will succeed this year, but it is not a foregone conclusion by any means.

A lot of senators like the idea of keeping the public uninformed for a long time. It suits their own purposes.

But clearly not ours. Who knows? Maybe logic will prevail this time.

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Philadelphia: What do you think, will Attorney General Gonazales make it? Will the Democrats hound him out of office?

Jeffrey Birnbaum: I've been among those who predicted that Gonzales would be forced to resign a couple week ago. I was wrong, obviously.

I tend now to believe that he will stay for a good long time because President Bush and his aides see no advantage, or not much of one, for him to leave.

The Democrats would not back off if Gonzales quit. In fact, the Democrats, who control the chairmanships in Congress, appear unlikely to hold back on anything that sticks a stick in the eye of the Bush administration.

Why should Gonzales go, I bet they figure, if the onslaught will only continue.

At some point, of course, and if the facts are overwhelming against him, Gonzales might have to leave. But until then, I expect him to stay.

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Seattle: Are the candidates for president getting a lot of money from lobbyists, or any at all? And does it matter, really? Aren't lobbyists allowed to give money like everybody else?

Jeffrey Birnbaum: Yes, lobbyists can and do give a lot of money to candidates for president. They also raise a ton of it. Lobbyists in Washington are lining up behind their favorite candidates and most of the major candidates have pretty big lobbyist backers collecting money for them. Dirk Van Dongen of the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors is Rudy Guiliani's man on K Street. And John Merrigan of DLA Piper is one of many money men for Sen. Hillary Clinton. Actually the list is too long to get into here. But yes, one of the main things lobbyists do is give and raise money. That's one of the ways they stay relevent in the political system.

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Miami, Fla.: I keep reading that Congress is busy, busy, busy. Are they really? What have the Democrats who are in the majority doing with their power? Are they any different than the Republicans?

Jeffrey Birnbaum: First of all, it's still very early in the legislative session to come to many conclusions. Just because of a new party is in charge doesn't mean the law of legislation have been repealed. Congress almost never gets anything major done until late in any year. That will surely be the case this year, like every other year.

The Democrats raised expectations for early action with the House Six for '06 agenda--those six bills the Democrats rushed through the House early. But they have languished in the Senate.

Of course. Bills always languish in the Senate. That's what the Senate is for. Some of those six will stay dormant, others will come out in a different form. But final actions will take a while.

Even the increase in the minimum wage, which was an overwhelming consensus item, is still unfinished. That's the way it works, I'm afraid.

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Washington: Are the Democrats having much success this year do you think? They passed all those bills but they haven't finished yet in the Senate. And what does that mean for K Street?

Jeffrey Birnbaum: As I just noted, final legislative actions take time. But as to how the Democrats are doing, I guess I would have to say, pretty well. They have stolen the initiative on many issues thanks to their control of the committee gavels on Capitol Hill. The majority's control over the legislative agenda can be a very powerful political tool. The major debates on the Hill are about when to get out of Iraq and when Alberto Gonzales might resign. Both are Democratic creations. The Bush presidency is so weak that it cannot move policies in the same way anymore.

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Lake Luzerne, N.Y.: Interesting positioning by some K Streeters unwilling to urge lawmakers to vote for the House's Iraq supplemental even though it contains provisions (pork) that support their clients' interests.

Is this unprecedented? Does it represent, in a twisted kind of way, a principled position by rabid ex-Bushies now in the lobbying world?

Or, more likely, a desire not to irritate the White House, recognizing that the "ornaments" are doomed so long as they're attached to this particular tree?

Jeffrey Birnbaum: My guess is that the hands-off policy of even self-interested lobbies on the pork in the supplemental bill is really, well, self-interested.

The sure way to lose those items is for lobbies to press hard for them and to be seen doing so. If they keep a distance, maybe they will stay in the bill and become law. So why not stay away? That is the smart way to get what they want.

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McLean, Va.: So is Bush through? I keep wondering when he'll resign and just say he can't do anything any more. Will Republicans let this keep happening.

Jeffrey Birnbaum: Bush is nowhere close to resignation. His effectiveness is limited because of his low job approval ratings and because Democrats are in the majority in Congress. But he is still the president and has a lot to say about many many things. Republicans on the Hill have not turned their backs on him, his people or his policies, at least in a wholesale fashion. If the GOP abandons Bush, then that might lead to a serious erosion of Bush's powers. But until then, he is the president, with a veto pen and a very strong policy view. He will remain a major force in Washington as long as he is in the White House, which I expect will be until the end of his term in 2009.

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Atlanta, Ga.: Thanks for having these online talks. I have a sort of outside the box question. Do you believe that Democrats will ever do something diffrent than Republicans about all the lobbyists? I don't think people pay that much attention even if they did. Thanks again.

Jeffrey Birnbaum: Thank you for the question. There's not really all that much that anyone can DO about lobbyists. They are a constant and important force in Washington. As for whether their sails might be trimmed by lobby/ethics legislation, I'm not holding my breath on that one either. The Senate has passed a bill, and the House is working on one, but Congress is not yet close to completing its work on a final effort. Last year the House and Senate passed lobbying bills and ended up doing virutally nothing in the end. I think there's a slightly better chance that Congress won't fail completely this year, but I remain skeptical that anything of real impact will become law. The bills that have passed or are being seriously considered still allow for meals and travel in certain circumstances from lobbyists to lawmakers despite provisions that claim to restrict them. Lobbyists are central players in Washington and they will remain so whatever passes--if anything.

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"stay relevent in the political system": This happens in the private sector too. It's known there as "kickbacks" or "bribery", depending on the industry it can violate both laws and regulations, and usually results in immediate termination of both sides of the transaction.

Jeffrey Birnbaum: I'm afraid in Washington there are legal forms of bribery also called campaign contributions. No one is terminated for giving or receiving those. In fact, people lose their jobs if they don't get enough of those legal bribes, or if they don't give enough of them. That's the upside down world of Washington for you.

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District of Columbia: I see that you wrote the David Stockman story. Did supply side economics work or was Stockman a fraud?

Jeffrey Birnbaum: I try not to take sides on that fight. I think there clearly is a benefit to the economy from lower tax rates, but whether the amount of extra tax revenue that brings in, due to higher economic growth, can be quantified with any certainty I do have doubts about. Without question, the Reagan tax cuts went too far and did have to be taken back over the next few years. But whether more limited tax cutting would have worked out just fine, we will never know. That's probably a shame.

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"end of his term in 2009": If he's not in jail. Which is why he will never let Alberto G resign. The pressure will be on to replace him with someone noted for integrity, rather than the usual Bush "Fredo" choice.

An AG with integrity and a rep for it to protect won't be willing to cover up things. Imagine the fun that would produce. Can you say "smoking guns" boys and girls?

No way.

Jeffrey Birnbaum: That's harsh, no? Gonzales looks like he made some mistakes, and maybe a few serious ones, but he is not venal, nor is his boss, in my view.

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Dayton, Ohio: Your column today about lawmakers lapping it up with lobbyists at the Bryce Harlow affair implies that the lawmakers there didn't pay for their meals. Do you know that for a fact?

And, under the rules, how long before it would it be determinable, one way or another, after the fact?

Jeffrey Birnbaum: Lawmakers can take meals at widely attended events, which this way. I did not say, nor did I mean to imply, that a literal violation of the House gift ban was happening at the event. What I meant to say is that the ban is irrelevent if events like the dinner can and do take place all the time.

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Arlington Va.: What do you think will happen with the chemical plant regulations? Will Congress stop DHS from pre-empting state laws?

Jeffrey Birnbaum: I intend to take a closer look at this issue. But my understanding is that the chemical industry may be about to lose a major fight here. They have succeeded for a long time in preventing tough state regulation from governing in a few important spots across the country. Now the Iraq supplemental bill looks like it may allow the tougher state regs to win out, thus costing the chemical industry millions and dealing its lobby here in Washington a significant defeat. Do I have that right?

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New York: Wow. Those lobbying fees are something. Is it unusual for lobbyists to be that high paid?

Jeffrey Birnbaum: Some lobbyists aren't paid much at all. And the amounts in my column today were not salaries but rather fees paid to firms. Nonetheless lobbyists, who often have multiple clients, can make a lot of money fast without having to work on that many issues, that's for sure.

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Arlington: Aren't you a little harsh about the Bryce Harlow dinner? Harlow was a great guy and there's nothing wrong with what his foundation is doing. Ease up, would you.

Jeffrey Birnbaum: I didn't think I was harsh about the dinner and I said nothing about Harlow, who I agree was a remarkable fellow. I took the opportunity of the dinner to make the case that Washington is a place with very few boundaries. It is wrong for people to think that on the one side there is government and on the other are lobbyists. That's just plain wrong. Washington could not operate without lobbying and lobbyists and interests organized as they are. That is America, to be fair, like it or not. I really dislike the demonizing of any serious player in the very messy system we call democracy. I would rather present vivid examples of how things really work and let people digest them, and learn to accept them in an intelligent way. Don't you think?

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Long Beach, Calif.: Do 3rd party, mercenary lobbiests really CARE who is in office beyond the level of access they'll have to pander, co-opt, and bribe officials?

Wouldn't a clean administration of any stripe be better for 3rd party mercenary lobbiests than an administration so riddled with hypocrisy, ties to convicted criminal lobbiests, convicted congressmen, convicted senators, and indicted aids... not to mention a DOJ under suspicion of political crimes with a White House liason claiming the 5th?

Why do so many still support the administration? (I'm obviously not talking about the sierra club's mercenary lobbying team here)

Jeffrey Birnbaum: Your language is not anything I would endorse, but the notion that lobbyists do what they need to make sure their interests are listened to is correct. Third party lobbyists are allowed, legal and a permanent part of the landscape.

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Jeffrey Birnbaum: Thank you all for writing in. I have to rush off to do some Washington Post Radio. Let's do this again in a couple weeks.

Cheers and all best!

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