Earth Week: Global Warming

Washington Post environmental reporter Juliet Eilperin will be online Monday, April 16, noon ET to discuss the latest developments on global warming.

Submit your questions and comments before or during the discussion.

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Laurel, Md.: If global warming is bad and, clearly, a global ice age is equally bad, then what should be the average temperature of the earth and do you think we can control the environment to meet this goal? And, by the way, what is a working definition of global average temperature?

Juliet Eilperin: I can't say what the ideal temperature should be, but the international scientific and political consensus at this point is that it would be dangerous to have more than a 2 degree Celsius temperature increase compared to pre-industrial levels. There are many scientists, such as NASA's James E. Hansen, who argue that more than a 1 degree Celsius increase is dangerous. To put it in perspective, over the last century the global temperature has increased about 0.7 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels.

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Falls Church, Va.: Due to the enormity of the earthquake in Indonesia and the drastic movement of the tectonic plates, I have heard that it actually moved the planet. Could this have something to do with global warming?

Juliet Eilperin: I have never heard that earthquakes stem from climate change, so I would see that as an unlikely connection.

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Orlando, Fla. : Dear Ms. Eilperin: The City of Phoneix, Ariz., has an average nighttime low temperature that is 12 degrees warmer than 50 year ago. This is due to the " heat island effect" from a city with a lot of dark, heat absorbiing surfaces such as asphalt parking lots and dark roofs. Given the light reflective properties of concrete, should not local and state governments offer incentives for concrete paving over asphalt?

Juliet Eilperin: There are a number of groups that have proposed preserving more open space as a way of reducing the heat island effect. As the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report points out, cities in the Southwest such as Phoenix are particularly vulnerable to rising temperatures and drought that accompany climate change. So folks in your city might start exploring such options, along with planting trees. My colleague Blaine Harden wrote a piece about that a few months back.

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Berkeley, Calif.: With high population nations like India and China's inevitable use of their coal reserves to raise their respective peoples' standard of living, what are the realistic prospects that anything we do in the West will stabilize the percentage of human generated ghgs in the atmosphere?

Juliet Eilperin: This is an argument made often by the Bush administration and other opponents of a U.S. mandatory curb on greenhouse gas emissions, that if emissions rise in China and India, our own cuts in carbon dioxide will be meaningless on the global level. The Supreme Court rejected this reasoning in its majority opinion earlier this month, and many have called for the U.S. to push for China and India to join an international binding agreement curbing emissions at the same time that we would enter it.

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Silver Spring, Md.: It would seem apparent that automobiles are the greatest contributors to climate change in the average American household. What kind of forecast for regulation can we hope to see from our legislators?

Juliet Eilperin: It depends on how you define this: automobiles are the second biggest contributor to US greenhouse gas emissions next to power plants, which supply American homes (as well as businesses) with electricity. So really, both driving and home electricity use contribute to climate change. There's a good chance you'll see tighter fuel economy standards coming out of Congress in the next year or two, since the Bush administration backs a tightening of fuel standards. It's unclear whether the Congress and White House can agree on an economy-wide curb on greenhouse gas emissions before the next election.

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Sydney, NSW: There seems to be a growing backlash against the theory on Climate Change. What seems to be fueling these? Coporation, politics, religion, etc ?

Juliet Eilperin: It's hard to tell why some people are being more vocal about questioning climate change in recent months. Part of it stems from Michael Crichton's "State of Fear," which has convinced many people that global warming is not happening to the extent many scientists say it is happening. Also, some people, such as MIT scientist Richard Lindzen, worry that U.S. policy makers are going to adopt regulations he fears will damage the economy. So I would say the more likely it is that people are going to act on climate change, the fiercer a reaction one gets to such a move.

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Chicago, Ill.: Which produces more greenhouse gases, electricity generation or motor vehicle transportation?

Juliet Eilperin: According to 2004 figures from the Environmental Protection Agency, coal-burning utilities account for 33.9 percent of US emissions, motor vehicles account for 19.4 percent. It's worth noting that the Big Three U.S. automakers (along with some prominent Japanese automakers) have all recently embraced mandatory federal limits on greenhouse gases, while this same consensus does not exist within the U.S. power plant industry.

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Durham, N.C.: Ms. Eilperin

As I understand the science, even if we stop injecting greenhouse gases now, temperatures will continue to rise for decades to come due to the persistence of these gases.

Don't we need a more open discussion of methods to actively block sunlight if we are going to preserve ecosystems in anything close to their current forms? I have seen nothing from political or environmental leaders on this topic.

Juliet Eilperin: There are some scientists who have discussed this idea: it's called geoengineering. For example, Ken Caldeira at the Carnegie Institution at Stanford has written and spoken about this. One of the problems with trying to block sunlight through geoengineering, however, is that once you put a system in place you have to continue to maintain it, which can be expensive. Also, this does not address other climate-related problems, such as ocean acidification.

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Detroit, Mich.: Juliet, Re the question on automobiles: I read from Tom Friedman that as China reaches something like par per capita GDP with the U.S. over the next 20 years, they will more than double the current world auto fleet of 800M. How can we address getting them on board with reduced emissions of CO2?

Juliet Eilperin: The Bush administration has encouraged the Chinese government to adopt cleaner technology when building power plants as a way of curbing their emissions, and many European nations, such as Sweden and Italy, are investing in clean energy projects in China under a program established as part of the 1997 Koyto Protocol. But it remains unclear whether they will adopt a binding limit on CO2 emissions.

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Washington, D.C.: As a person from the scientific community, I get very amused by the level of emotionalism that is generated by "Global Warming." I think it's important to understand that statements by so-called experts sometimes are a result of a hidden agenda. The ice in Antarctica has totally disappeared three times in the last 200 million years; I think I would be correct to say there were no cars or power plants to blame. Politics has no place in this debate, it is a long term situation.

Juliet Eilperin: Obviously the climate has changed dramatically over the past 200 million years. I think the most relevant question, and most policy makers and scientists would agree on this, is what kind of climate change can humankind and the other species we have on the earth today, survive over the next several centuries. That is what people are trying to determine.

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Freising, Germany: A while ago, I read that the Gulf Stream, that transports warm ocean water from the Gulf of Mexico to Northern Europe, has weakened in recent years, and one of the causes of this weakening could be the glacial melt that is dumping large amounts of fresh water into the northern oceans.

Have you heard any recent information on this phenomenon?

If the North Atlantic were to get colder due to a change in course of the Gulf Stream, do you think that this could counteract the current glacial melt in the high Arctic?

Juliet Eilperin: There has been a lot of debate over what will happen to the Gulf Stream over the next few centuries. The first IPCC report released this year, which came out in February, concluded that this sort of shutdown will not happen over the next century but could happen sometime after that.

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RE: Heat Island: In your response to Orlando's question, you suggest planting trees to help diminish the Heat Island Effect. But in a drought-ridden city like Phoenix, AZ, is that really good advice? Aren't there better ways to help (replace grass yards with desert landscaping, etc.)?

Juliet Eilperin: Certainly desert landscaping makes much more sense than maintaining a grass yard in Phoenix. I don't know if there are some trees that would do well there without much water, that's a question that could easily be answered by a landscaping specialist.

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Silver Spring, Md.: If motor vehicles account for almost 20 percent of greenhouse gases, perhaps the media like the Post should stop pushing highways such as the Intercounty Connector.

Juliet Eilperin: I would just note that our editorial page is separate from our news section, so you would have to write our editorial page on that.

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Washington, DC: What are your thoughts on George Will's column last week. Specifically: "But the cost of compliance just to the United States would be higher than the cost of providing the entire world with clean drinking water and sanitation, which would prevent two million deaths (from diseases such as infant diarrhea) a year and prevent half a billion people from becoming seriously ill each year."

washingtonpost.com: Fuzzy Climate Mal ( Post, April 12)

Juliet Eilperin: I would encourage everyone to read the IPCC's recent summary reports for policymakers-they've published two this year and will publish another in the months to come. They're available at www.ipcc.org and the second report, which just came out, delves into questions such as the health effects of climate change. For example, global warming is likely to worsen diseases such as malaria and diarrhea in developing countries, so while Will's proposal might produce some short-term benefits in developing countries these would liklely be overwhelmed by long-term losses. In addition, a group of senior retired generals just published a report today addressing how climate change poses a national security risk because it can exacerbate regional stablility. (I wrote a story on the report in Sunday's paper). So that's another resource.

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Kearny, N.J.: Since President Bush has not taken any meaningful action to address global warming, where do the presidential candidates stand on global warming?

Juliet Eilperin: Every Democratic presidential candidate has endorsed mandatory federal limits on greenhouse gas emissions, I believe. On the GOP side, John McCain has helped lead the effort in Congress to curb such emissions. Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.) has said he's open to the idea of curbing emissions, but I don't know if he's endorsed a recent plan. Former Gov. Mitt Romney (R-Mass.) took his state out of a binding emissions plan in the Northeast, so it's fair to say he's less inclined toward a federal carbon cap.

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I have never heard that earthquakes stem from climate change: He meant the opposite: that the earthquake caused the earth to shift, which caused climate change

Juliet Eilperin: I have never heard of that theory either.

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Nashua, N.H.: Why is the U.S. press not covering the loss of honeybees due to the use of cell phones. This is more important than global warming right now. Einstein said without the honeybees we would have only four years of survival.

Juliet Eilperin: I have written about the loss of pollinators, including honeybees, in the U.S. So I don't think it's accurate to say the media does not cover this issue.

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Charlevoix, Mich.: Hello. Al Gore has claimed that while nearly all the climate research reported in the scientific press shares a good deal of unanimity with regard to causes and consequences, a significant portion of the popular press treats global warming as a reasonably even-sided debate. Is this a credible assertion? From your professional perspective in the press, how important of a distinction is this? Thanks.

Juliet Eilperin: I do think the climate research reported in the scientific press overwhelming agrees on the causes on climate change and its consequences, I don't think it's accurate to say the popular press, at this point, portrays the climate debate as even-sided. It might have been that way several years ago, I've only covered this beat for three years so I'm not comfortable commenting on press coverage before that time.

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McLean, Va.: Have you seen clips from "The Great Global Warming Swindle"--a BBC production clips of which are swirling around on YouTube? In it, scientists (proclaimed to be leading scientists) say that global warming may not be happening at all. I watched "An Inconvenient Truth" and became passionate about environmental issues. Now this? What gives? Is global warming up for debate among the scientific community? Or is this politicization? Or was Al Gore's film politicized?

Juliet Eilperin: I have seen some clips of that BBC production (I tried to watch it on YouTube and it was hard to get the whole thing). I don't think it's accurate to say that the scientists interviewed for that piece, as a group, represent the consensus of leading climate scientists worldwide. I've gotten questions on Gore's film as well. I would say that the link he draws between Katrina and climate change is not one that's been firmly established in the scientific literature, so you could question whether that reflects a political bias, but the rest of the science in the film is accurate.

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Home: The thing that most concerns me about the climate change discussion is the seeming inability to divide real science issues from policy issues. Science tells us what models provide regarding statistical probabilities of an increase in average temperature over a certain period of time (although some of the assumptions they use are not real science, but ...). However, it is a policy debate from there as to the best course of action. One can fairly differ in policy judgments given considerations of cost, etc. It would kind of be like the weather forecaster telling me how to use my weekend because he's predicted rain. Comments?

Juliet Eilperin: I think this raises an interesting point: some climate scientists, such as James Hansen, have become outspoken proponents of certain policy options since they see global warming as such a major threat. I think it's important to make a distinction between science and policy, but having covered Congress for 14 years, I can assure readers than lawmakers rely on outside experts all the time for advice when making policy decisions. So I think it's important to get the best science possible, and then base decisions on that. For example, Congress is holding a series of hearings on climate change right now to inform itself before taking action on the issue.

We're out of time now, so thanks for all the very smart questions.

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