Sarkozy and the Future of U.S.-French Relations

Charles A. Kupchan, Director of Europe Studies for the Council on Foreign Relations, was online Thursday, May 7 at 2:30 p.m. ET to examine the results of the weekend's French election, and how new president Nicolas Sarkozy may change the nation's relationship with the U.S.

Sarkozy Wins, Vows to Restore Pride in France (Post, May 7)

The transcript follows.

Kupchan is a professor of international affairs at Georgetown University and a former director for European affairs at the National Security Council.

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Charles A. Kupchan: Welcome everyone. Let's get the ball rolling and see if we can shed some light on Sarkozy's victory yesterday in France.

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Washington, D.C.: Professor Kupchan, how do you see Sarkozy affecting France's approach to the EU? With Britain anticipating its own leadership change, do you see Sarkozy making an active effort to break the current stalemate surrounding the EU constitution and change the political dynamic in Europe, or do you think he will focus on domestic priorities? Many thanks.

Charles A. Kupchan: Sarkozy seems intent on streamlining the EU constitution -- pulling out its most important provisions -- and going to the French National Assembly, rather than the public, for approval. He will probably team up with Chancellor Merkel of Germany and the next Prime Minister in the UK, Gordon Brown, to pull this off.

The EU has been stumbling of late, and desperately needs French leadership to breathe new life into it. Sarkozy may be the right man. In light of his embrace of French nationalism, he is likely to support a looser, less supranational EU instead of the federal structure advocated by others. That will put him on the same page as the British and others who are uncomfortable with a federal vision of the EU.

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Paris, France: We have been waiting so long (12 or 26 years depending on who you ask) for this old guard to finally leave French politics and let the young generation take over. Finally, Sarko might be able to bring some change to our great but stagnating nation. We are tired of the constant problems with our economy, we encourage laziness among the people by giving them checks, and companies are afraid to hire people because they won't be able to fire them later on if need be. Today, France lives with renewed hope. Today, vive la France!

Charles A. Kupchan: I basically agree with your view that the "old guard" is losing its grasp in France. I also think it safe to say that the "unreconstructed left" is on its last gasp. The traditional welfare simply will not survive in an era of globalization, and the French, Germans and Italians to get on the task of adjusting. Some of the French left gets it -- many of them voted for Bayrou as a result. But keep in mind that France has a long history of public protest. So Sarkozy has his work cut out for him in taking on the major economic reform.

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Washington, D.C.: Mr. Kupchan, Sarkozy is described as pro-American and has said that improving relations with the U.S. will be a priority of his administration, but won't the anti-Americanism and anti-Bushism of many French people act as a brake on his foreign policy ambitions? In what areas of U.S.-French relations do you think he will be able to make real changes? Also, how do you think he will approach relations with the European Union? Thank you.

Charles A. Kupchan: Sarkozy is definitely more pro-American than any French president for decades. He admires the more "rough and tumble" U.S. economy and society. And he is not afraid to say so even though the French public remains quite skeptical of the Bush administration and its foreign policy. Relations between Paris and Washington will improve, but I would not expect an overnight revolution. Sarkozy will have to keep some distance to avoid being labeled Bush's "French poodle" -- mimicking the "lap dog" label that hurt Tony Blair. There are still many areas of substantive agreement between France and the United States. And although Bush will no doubt reach out to Sarkozy, Washington will be preoccupied with Iraq and our own presidential elections. So, better U.S.-French relations, yes. Immediate flowering of close partnership -- don't count on it.

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Washington, D.C.: Jim Hoagland pointed out today that Sarko used rope-a-dope tactics against her in the debate, but I think he was more clever -- he accused her of not giving specifics, so she would continue to repeat them so much that she ran out of time. I think her scoffing at him so much really hurt her credibility.

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Charles A. Kupchan: I think Royal really hurt herself by not appearing to have sufficient grasp of key issues. Even among her supporters, there was grumbling that she did demonstrate that she was presidential material. Sarkozy has been finance minister and interior minister. For those people wavering in the middle, his experience played a role in tilting the balance in his direction.

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College Park, Md.: Will Sarkozy shift French policy in the Middle East?

Charles A. Kupchan: Exactly how Sarkozy changes French policy in the Middle East remains to be seen. He is more supportive of Israel than most European leaders. But the French public and Sarkozy's EU colleagues generally feel that the U.S. is too pro-Israel and that the EU needs to compensate. In addition, the peace process is today looking bleak. The "unity government" in the Palestinian authority is neither unified nor a functioning government. And the Israeli government seems teetering on the edge of collapse. So I don't see any breakthroughs on that front, with or without Sarkozy.

On Iran, Sarkozy will probably show toughness, sticking by Washington's effort to pressure Tehran to cease enriching uranium.

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Alexandria, Va.: Dr. Kupchan: I was a student of yours in a spring semester course in 1998. I'm glad that you're partaking in this chat. How sincere do you think Sarkozy's promises to develop a better relationship with the United States are? What forms might such cooperation take?

Charles A. Kupchan: Well I guess that class was not that painful. You are coming back for more!

In general, I think Sarkozy will be quite pragmatic in dealing with U.S. He will move away from the reflexive French angst about U.S. power and look for concrete ways to work together. The Bush administration is likely to reciprocate. It appears to be setting aside ideology in favor of a more pragmatic and realist approach to foreign policy. Washington's search for help in the world may intersect nicely with Sarkozy's willingness to find new areas of cooperation. Iran, Afghanistan, global warming, development, Lebanon -- these are all areas of potential U.S.-French cooperation.

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Virginia: Hello. Will France be a member of the NATO's military structure? Now it is just part of the political structure.

Charles A. Kupchan: I don't expect any formal change on this front. But the transatlantic relationship is moving away from the formality of NATO toward "coalitions of the willing" and pragmatic partnerships. I think that pattern will continue and strengthen. The contact group on the Balkans, the EU3-U.S. team on Iran, the Quartet in the Middle East -- I expect France to play a growing role in these informal mechanisms for cooperation.

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Washington, D.C.: God, I wish we had the French's 35-hour a workweek, four weeks' paid vacations and that generous social welfare. But we're anti-tax, ya know.

Charles A. Kupchan: To give a little defense to the French economy -- its growth rate tends to lag behind that of the U.S. for two main reasons -- we have higher rates of immigration and we work longer hours. Take those difference away, and France does just fine. Sarkozy will certainly not dismantle the welfare state nor take away the mass French migration to the sea in July and august. But he is likely to make liberalizing reforms that will bring down unemployment and raise growth

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New York: What steps do you think Sarkozy will take with regard to integrating the Muslim community?

Charles A. Kupchan: This is a huge challenge for Sarkozy. Perhaps the biggest challenge. He has alienated the Muslim community, which represents some 10 percent of the population. Muslim immigration is likely to continue across Europe, in no small part because of low birth rates that make immigration necessary to keep the economy afloat. Sarkozy needs to try to rebuild trust with France's Muslims by reaching out to them and introducing programs to facilitate their entry into the social mainstream. Worker and language training, employment programs, and the like will help. Also, it is vital that the traditional French citizenry be more welcoming to immigrants, making them feel like they belong and are accepted, not like they are strangers in someone else's land.

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Maryland: What will happen to the socialists and Ms. Royal?

Charles A. Kupchan: The left will have to do some serious revamping and rebuilding. The Socialists are now deeply split. Many of the party elders did not support Royal. There are some tough days and months ahead for the left. My guess is that there will be an effort to shift the party to center -- as in the U.S. and UK, but it will not be easy.

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Charles A. Kupchan: I am afraid I must sign off. Many thanks for all the excellent questions. Au revoir.

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