The War Over the War

Join Post associate editor Thomas E. Ricks on Tuesday, May 8 at noon ET to discuss the debate in Washington among government, military and intelligence officials over what course to follow in Iraq as the war enters its fifth year.

The transcript follows.

More coverage of The War Over the War | War Over the War discussion transcripts

Ricks has covered the U.S. military for the Washington Post since 2000. Until the end of 1999 he had the same beat at the Wall Street Journal, where he was a reporter for 17 years. His book, " Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq", was published in July 2006.

Blog: Tom Ricks' Inbox

____________________

Kensington, Md.: Why isn't Joe Biden's three-state idea getting more discussion? It seems like the inevitable end of this -- why not shed less blood and get to it sooner?

Thomas E. Ricks: That's a good question, especially because the partition idea seems to some Americans to make sense. I think one reason we haven't seen it gain more attraction is that no one in Iraq seems to have embraced the idea.

_______________________

Austin, Texas: We often see the press repeat the White House talking point about Iran supplying the insurgents with weapons, but we hardly ever see the press actually ask about the pretty well-known trail of money that leads from Saudi Arabia to the insurgents so they can buy those weapons. Is the press afraid of offending Saudi Arabia? Does that go against some establishment policy? Are they unwilling to investigate the source of insurgent funding for that reason?

Thomas E. Ricks: Your question goes to one of the vulnerabilities of journalism. There was a lot of quiet talk among U.S. officers in Iraq about the role Iran was playing in Iraq, especially with sophisticated bombs, but you didn't see much talk in the media about the Iranian role until top U.S. officers and and the Bush Administration started talking about it. Likewise, if they started talking about the money trail from Saudi Arabian citizens, you'd see more stories about it. But they don't like to talk about it. It is something that many journalists ask about, but you have to have something to print beyond rumor. Just yesterday I asked a Defense official about this and got almost nothing from him.

_______________________

Philadelphia: What is the latest on the private security forces in Iraq? Do they still act independently from military operations? I ask because previous articles have observed that some of these security forces more resemble soldiers of fortune who are fighting an almost separate war in protecting business interests. Is it good or bad that businesses use private security forces?

Thomas E. Ricks: For the latest, I'd recommend you track the articles being done by my Post colleague Steve Fainaru.

This is a very important subject. I think of the aspects of the Iraq war that historians will note is the heavy reliance of the U.S. military on contractors -- not just for logistical support, as in other wars, but also as "trigger-pullers" guarding VIPs and other contractors.

_______________________

Arlington, Va.: How could you possibly be so lazy in your reporting and writing of this piece not to point out that House Minority Leader Boehner said the following in February: "I think it will be rather clear in the next 60 to 90 days as to whether this plan is going to work." Why should we give credence to any new "deadline" imposed by Republicans when their previous "deadlines" to show results have passed without comment?

Thomas E. Ricks: And good afternoon to you, too.

I think you missed the point of today's story. An increasing number of Republicans look like the will bolt from the White House position if they don't see much improvement in the next four or so months.

_______________________

Minneapolis: Great story today. Given the Bush administration's track record, there is a lot of understandable skepticism today about the notion that September is a real turning point for war policy. But I assume the difference now is widespread political panic among Republicans, as illustrated by Minnesota's own Norm Coleman in your article today. Do you think Petraeus' setting of September as a marker, combined with Secretary Defense Gates' recent seemingly off-the-reservation comments, are part of a concerted effort to lay the groundwork for the Bush administration to really begin withdrawing while saving face and pretending no dramatic departure in policy has taken place?

Thomas E. Ricks: I don't see so much a "concerted effort" as a convergence of forces. General Petraeus has said he should know by early fall whether his new approach is working. Some members of Congress effectively are saying, You can have that much time, but no more.

_______________________

Sun Prairie, Wis.: Good day, Mr. Ricks. One feature of national reconciliation movements in the recent past has been a general acknowledgment that a country's earlier sufferings were clearly the fault of one group: the Communists in Eastern Europe, the whites in South Africa, Hutu chauvinists in Rwanda. Are you aware of any expressions of remorse or regret on the part of Sunni Arab political leaders in Iraq (or the Sunni Arab-dominated insurgent groups) for the role they played in Saddam Hussein's oppressive regime, or the long terrorist campaign by Sunni Arab insurgents against Shiite civilians and government workers? None leap to mind offhand, and I wonder whether Washington now is demanding of the Shiite-led government concessions to Iraq's Sunni Arabs that no such government could make and keep the support of its main constituency. Is there any point in expecting "national reconciliation" in Iraq without public Sunni Arab recognition of their sect's responsibility for the crimes of the former regime and of the insurgency?

Thomas E. Ricks: I'd take your questions one step further: Are there any signs of possible political reconciliation in Iraq? From either side?

_______________________

Rockville, Md.: What are the Special Forces doing in Iraq? In Vietnam they were a significant force. Are they that good at security and keeping out of the press? I keep reading that the Generals don't like them that much and are keeping them under wraps.

Thomas E. Ricks: Well, the Special Operators sure are good at keeping out of the press. Last year when I was at Balad, the big base north of Baghdad, there was a Special Ops camp inside the base. Not only wasn't I allowed to go in it, the Army officer I was with wasn't welcome, either.

That said, what is said in official briefings is that the Special Operators focus on the counter-terrorism mission -- that is, going after al-Qaeda in Iraq and similar groups.

Of course that begs the question of why Special Forces (a subset of Special Operators) aren't running the training and advising effort in Iraq, which would seem to be part of the traditional mission of training locals, which they call "foreign internal defense." When I was writing "Fiasco" I came across some Special Forces grumbling about this, but I haven't heard much over the last year.

_______________________

Herndon, Va: We cannot simply leave Iraq quickly. Why don't we hear more from Democrats on how they would specifically deploy troops and what the objectives would be once we remove ourselves from the inevitable civil war? Can't this intelligently be linked to Biden's three-state plan? Will our troops man a partitioning process? How? I'm anti-war from Day 1, but Dems need to come up with a real plan that will mitigate the disaster -- or else they will own the disaster. What are your ideas?

Thomas E. Ricks: I would like to hear more discussion, in both parties, of the consequences of various courses of action. There seem to be three alternatives under discussion:

Partition: Would U.S. troops indeed police the lines separating each area? For how long? And how would payment of oil revenue to Sunnis be enforced?

Containment: Is it possible to pull back U.S. troops from the cities and simply "contain" Iraq's bubbling civil war? How? Would we try to seal the borders? And what would happen to the refugees that presumably would follow U.S. troops? Would we have to set up and police big camps?

Total withdrawal: What would the consequences of this be, both for us and for countries in the region? Are there ways of mitigating the damage?

_______________________

Seattle: The U.S. will pull out of Iraq eventually; it's just a question of when. What's the worst case scenario with Saudi Arabia and Syria coming to the rescue of Sunnis in Iraq? War between them and Iran? Proxy war?

Thomas E. Ricks: The best discussion of this that I have heard was done by a thoughtful British academic (I would name him but I can't remember without my notes here if he was speaking for attribution) who predicted that if the U.S. pulled out soon, there would be a regional civil war fought mainly on the streets of Baghdad, pitting Saudi money against Shiite bodies. He further predicted that the Shiites, backed by Iran, would prevail, with the effect that Persian power would move westward to the west bank of the Euphrates.

_______________________

Alexandria, Va.: Thank you for an excellent book and reporting! What do you think about the threat by the Sunni vice president to totally pull his block from the government? He set a date for May 15, do you think all of his demands could be met by this time? Will they? What happens if the Sunnis leave? Civil War? Your thoughts? Thank you.

Thomas E. Ricks: I don't know what to make of it -- I am no expert in Iraqi politics and culture. (For that, I commend you to "Night Draws Near," an excellent book by my Post colleague Anthony Shadid that looks at the beginning of the occupation through Iraqi eyes.)

But my gut feeling was that while it looked bad, at least there was some movement in Iraqi politics. It has felt frozen so long that even negative movement might lead to something.

I think they already have a small civil war in Iraq. The question is whether there will be a full-blown one.

_______________________

Grand Rapids, Mich.: What is the status of electricity in Baghdad? Are they still on less than than 24 hours a day? And water as well? And generally, what can you tell us about basic civic functions such as garbage pickup? I remember we had a garbage collectors strike once for like three days, and man it was amazing to see how important small functions of local government are. Thank you for your reporting. I audiobooked "Fiasco," hope that is just as good as reading it!

Thomas E. Ricks: I haven't been to Baghdad in awhile. (I was there briefly in December but didn't get "outside the wire," as troops say.) I do not believe there is electricity for 24 hours a day (and believe me, that makes a big difference during the summer -- it is so hot and humid that even an electric fan can make a huge difference. Imagine the worst day of the summer in D.C. and then add 25 degrees.)

But one thing to keep in mind is that people who fly over the city and see lots of lights don't see that a lot of those lights are powered by local neighborhood generators.

_______________________

Arlington, Va.: You wrote about Iraq: "Would we try to seal the borders?" Do you think this is even being discussed? We've never been able to seal our own much smaller and more peaceful border with Mexico. What makes you think we could seal a border surrounded by countries hostile to everything we're trying to do in Iraq?

Thomas E. Ricks: The analogy that bothers me most about the Iraq war is comparing it to World War II.

After that, my least favorite analogy is the one that says we can close our own border with Mexico, so why should we expect more in Iraq?

The difference is that we are not at war in Mexico. There are ways of sealing borders. For example, the French in Algeria managed to seal two hostile borders -- with Morocco to the west and with Tunisia to the east. This wasn't easy, and took a lot of effort, but they did it without any of our high-tech surveillance equipment that should make the task easier.

Of course, we have less incentive to do so. The French were fighting to stay in Algeria. The U.S. effectively is fighting to leave.

_______________________

Denver: If September becomes the "make or break" month for the current surge policy, what will the benchmarks be for Democrats and Republicans to finally say "enough," when and if the benchmarks are not achieved?

Thomas E. Ricks: General Petraeus has said he will look at several areas -- security, governance, economics.

But I think for Congress the key will be whether they see persuasive evidence of tangible progress that promises to reverse the long-term decline of Iraq. I suspect that this won't be a party issue -- both Republicans and Democrats will be asking the same questions and looking for answers they can take to their constituents.

_______________________

Re: Sealing the Borders: How can you reconcile attempts to seal the borders of Iraq with the religious pilgrimages back and forth and the U.S.'s attempts to draw back refugees?

Thomas E. Ricks: Well, it would be nice to have a good, high-tech ID card that said where a person lives, and perhaps recorded his or her comings and goings through various checkpoints. Of the many things that puzzle me about this war, one of the things that nags me most is the the lack of a program to issue such cards and make them mandatory for movement between cities, or across borders.

Wouldn't it be helpful if at a checkpoint at say, the outskirts of Mosul, a soldier could look at a computer and say: "Hey, this guy is from Fallujah! What's up with that?" Or an analyst could sort out which people moved from the Triangle of Death southwest of Baghdad on the day of or the day before car bombings.

_______________________

Sewickley, Pa.: Did you happen to read " A Failure in Generalship" (Armed Forces Journal, April 27) by Lt. Col. Paul Yingling? Any thoughts? Will this advance or sink his career?

Thomas E. Ricks: Yes, I wrote an article about it the day it came out. Here is a link to it.

I suspect that many generals were offended by his essay, but I do know that many powerful people read it and will keep an eye on whether anyone tries to retaliate against him.

_______________________

Western Springs, Ill.: Why did General Tommy Franks get the Medal of Freedom -- aren't those only for civilians? Even though he retired, he didn't resign his commission, did he? How does all that work?

Thomas E. Ricks: You got me. That was quite a ceremony -- medals for Gen. Franks, CIA chief Tenet, and former proconsul to Iraq L Paul Bremer.

I've never heard a good explanation of the thinking behind that.

_______________________

Ottawa, Canada:"The U.S. effectively is fighting to leave." It doesn't seem that this fact has been clearly stated to the Bush administration by the U.S. military. Has anyone stated this to President Bush? Last we heard he was still talking about victory.

Thomas E. Ricks: Well, the question is on what terms the U.S. leaves. President Bush's terms are different from what some other people are discussing.

_______________________

Washington: Tom, back to the question of partition ... hasn't the partitioning of Iraq already begun? The Kurds clearly identify more with the Kurdish region than they do with the state of Iraq. The Shia are doing their level best to drive the Sunnis out of power and the Sunnis, by and large, see the Kurds and Shia as "unter mensch" and can't figure out why they (the Sunnis) are not still in power. Whether de jure or de facto it appears partition is the likely end result. And it appears the Iraq Constitution anticipates such a break up and conversion to a confederation.

Thomas E. Ricks: Yes, that may be the outcome -- breaking up the country for parts, as one of my colleagues once put it. But I'd hate to see that lead to another round of fighting about the borders of the parts.

And what happens to Kirkuk? Also, how would neighboring countries react, especially Turkey, a NATO partner that would not be happy with a semi-independent Kurdistan?

Be careful of what you wish for...

_______________________

Gulf Shores, Ala.: Good Afternoon and thank you for your book and many articles on this war. My question may show my ignorance, but in WWII the troops went and for the most part stayed the duration of the war. In Vietnam and now Iraq we keep rotating the forces. Doesn't this policy cost us more in the long run, both economically and in fighting the war?

Thomas E. Ricks: This is another one of my Top 10 Puzzlements of the Iraq War: Can a rotational military be effective in a relational society?

I don't think you could keep the troops there for the duration, but perhaps you could keep commanders and staff. (For example, I believe that Marine front-line units do tours of six or seven months, while their headquarters to 12 months.)

In 2004, Kalev Sepp, a retired Special Forces officer, did a terrific study of the mistakes typically made in counterinsurgencies. One of them was maintaining peacetime personnel processes.

For example, why doesn't the Army quickly promote successful commanders in Iraq? During World War II, James Gavin moved quickly from major to division commander. Why not take the most effective colonels in Iraq and make them division commanders? Another example: General Petraeus successfully commanded the 101st Airborne Division in Iraq in 2003-04. Why wait another three years, until 2007, to make him the overall commander?

_______________________

New York: I can't get over how much you add to the conversation about Iraq. Thanks you so much.

Thomas E. Ricks: Thank you! Likewise, I really like your questions. They are very thought-provoking, and help me hone my reporting.

_______________________

Ossian, Ind.: Do you see any real concern among our military leaders regarding the recent Pentagon survey on ethics? If I remember correctly there were a large percentage of soldiers that accept torture and civilian abuse as acceptable.

Thomas E. Ricks: Yes, General Petraeus expressed concern about this yesterday. Here is the story I wrote about this last week.

_______________________

Thomas E. Ricks: We're out of time.

Thanks for all your questions. I will try to be faster and get to more of them next time. (That is one reason I tried to keep most of my answers short this time -- I am still learning how to do this.)

_______________________

Editor's Note: washingtonpost.com moderators retain editorial control over Live Online discussions and choose the most relevant questions for guests and hosts; guests and hosts can decline to answer questions. washingtonpost.com is not responsible for any content posted by third parties.