Post Politics Hour
washingtonpost.com's Daily Politics Discussion

Michael Abramowitz
Washington Post White House Reporter
Thursday, May 31, 2007 10:45 AM

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Washington Post White House reporter Michael Abramowitz was online Thursday, May 31, at 10:45 a.m. ET to discuss the latest in political news.

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The transcript follows.

Archive: Post Politics Hour discussion transcripts

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Wellesley, Mass.: Bush has floated the idea that the Iraq situation is similar to the Korean situation, where the U.S. can expect to have troops stationed there for the next 50 years. Can you help me understand how he could make such a comparison and if he has any sense of history? Vietnam was more of a civil war like Iraq. Thinking that the U.S. would leave a number of troops stationed in Vietnam for 50 years would have been unacceptable to all concerned.

Michael Abramowitz: Good morning everybody. Sorry to be starting a bit early, but I need to be somewhere else at noon.

I already have received a couple of comments about the Korea reference at the White House this week from press secretary Tony Snow.

Here is what I think that's about: The administration is thinking a lot these days about what to do "post-surge." I think officials basically believe their current strategy on Iraq is politically unsustainable -- unless they get miraculous results from the additional troops sent to Iraq in the past few months. So they are thinking about a new strategy that would involve a smaller number of troops and a reduced mission, details to be determined. The way Korea fits in is they want to get the American people comfortable with the idea that there will be a long-term presence in Iraq, albeit with smaller numbers of troops. But for the reasons you mention, there are all sorts of reasons to think many Americans would find that unacceptable. So the White House has a big task before it if that is the way the president wants to go.

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Cherry Hill, N.J.: For a major presidential candidate, Fred Thompson has an awfully thin resume. Can star power really get him the nomination from the historically disciplined Republican primary voters?

washingtonpost.com: The Leading Role (Post, May 31)

Michael Abramowitz: Getting lots of questions about Fred Thompson this morning, for understandable reasons. I agree he has a pretty thin political resume, like a number of other candidates this year, but that's not necessarily been a bar to winning the White House. I think the buzz about his candidacy is a sign of how uncertain and open the presidential race is this year, and how the leading GOP candidates all have yet to close the deal -- leaving the door open to someone like Thompson. He comes into the race as a genuine movie and TV star, and that's going to make people take a look at him.

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Reading, Pa.: Will you and the president be vacationing for an extended period at the Crawford ranch, or are there other plans?

Michael Abramowitz: I expect the president to spend a fair amount of time at Crawford, and my colleagues (Peter Baker and Mike Fletcher) and I will be splitting time down there. As we reported today, he's also going to be spending a long weekend at Kennebunkport with Russian president Vladimir Putin.

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Chandler, Ariz.: Is President Bush working to use the final year-and-a-half to "shape" his legacy, or is he at peace with his likely place in history?

Michael Abramowitz: I think the president is going to spend the last year-and-a-half focused on Iraq, which is both a huge problem and the single largest determinant of his legacy at this point. I am sure he is not very happy about the way things are going with his administration, and it seems to me that he probably does think a lot about how history will judge him -- witness the continual references to Harry Truman and George Washington and how history takes a long time to judge presidents. But I don't sense he is obsessed with it.

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Raleigh, N.C.: Good morning! It seems that Bush is really getting engaged in fighting for the immigration bill. My suspicion is that most of the approximately 30 percent of Americans who still give Bush a thumbs up are against this bill. Given that, do you think Bush might lose his base, thus making him more vulnerable on Iraq when Magic September comes?

Michael Abramowitz: Good question. I suspect you are right about the immigration bill and what the GOP base thinks about this. I also suspect that for the GOP, Iraq is the most important issue and they will focus on that separate from immigration. But that's just rank speculation.

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Montgomery Village, Md.: Michael, what was the reaction of the Republican opponents of the immigration bill to Bush's statement about them not knowing/doing what's best for America if they oppose his plan? This administration has been playing this game of false choices for years (e.g. you are either with us or the terrorists, give us a blank check for Iraq or you are not supporting the troops, etc.). How do members of Bush's own party feel about being subjected to the same kind of with us/against us rhetoric?

washingtonpost.com: Bush Chides GOP Critics of Immigration Plan (Post, May 30)

Michael Abramowitz: I don't think they were particularly happy about it, judging from the comments of people at the Heritage Foundation and conservatives like David Keene and Paul Weyrich.

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Rolla, Mo.: Will there be a Geiger counter in Kennebunkport?

washingtonpost.com: Bush Reaches to Putin as Relations Continue to Slide (Post, May 31)

Michael Abramowitz: Ooohhh! Tough question. We'll be on the lookout.

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Cortez, Co: I happen to blame Congress and the administration equally for the invasion of Iraq. Do you happen to know if the Nation Intelligence Estimate of what would happen in post-invasion Iraq that The Post recently wrote about was available to Congress before they voted?

washingtonpost.com: Analysts' Warnings of Iraq Chaos Detailed (Post, May 26)

Michael Abramowitz: My understanding from my colleague Walter Pincus is that this document was not technically an NIE, but something called a National Intelligence Assessment -- which is not signed off on at the highest levels, as with an NIE. The document was sent to the congressional intelligence committees but it is unclear whether members were informed it was there.

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San Jose, Calif.: Clearly too soon to write about the Bush legacy, but other than immigration, and tending to the awful mess Bush has made of Iraq, is there anything out there that this president is likely to take on and successfully complete before he leaves office?

Michael Abramowitz: I would add a couple of things. The issue of global warming once again is being forced on to Bush's plate by Democrats in Congress and our allies in Europe. The question of what to do about Iran's nuclear program is another huge issue. And the president still would like to get an extension of trade promotion authority. Whether he successfully completes initiatives in any of these areas is clearly unclear, but those are big issues he still will tackle in one form or another.

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Boston: Is the President in good mental shape? I don't ask facetiously. I can't think of a single success he has enjoyed since the Nov. 2004 election. He is below 30 percent in opinion polls, and driving home from work last night I heard him getting Savaged on right-wing talk radio. Most people get a little dejected if they have had a bad week or month -- for the president the bad news has been going on for more than two years. I am concerned.

Michael Abramowitz: I have no special insight into this question, but you are completely right that he must be under extraordinary pressure. All I can say is that my sense of watching the president is that he seems fairly resilient and has given no outward signs of gloom or depression.

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Westcliffe, Colo.: The administration is thinking a lot these days about what to do "post-surge" -- yours. So, the White House strategy boils down to saying anything that will get the American public and an impotent Congress off of its back? Conflating the real with the imaginary will buy it time? To do what? Doesn't reality eventually enter the White House front door?

Michael Abramowitz: I wouldn't quite put it that way. I think the administration is much more realistic about Iraq than it was two years ago, and people like Gates and Petraeus do not seem likely to sugarcoat the reality of Iraq as they make an assessment of what's going on there. All I am saying is that another factor here is the cold political fact that there is very little political support left for the president on Iraq, and it will be hard for him to sustain the existing strategy if he does not get a big impact from the additional troops.

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Roseland, N.J.: Fred Thompson's resume is pretty much even with John Edwards, arguably better than Mitt Romney and certainly deeper than Barack Obama's. And under normal circumstances, wouldn't six years in the U.S. Senate trump eight as mayor of a city?

Michael Abramowitz: I agree there are others in the race who also have what could be seen as thin resumes. I think one point about Thompson is that I don't recall he had a big reputation as a power legislator in the Senate -- he was kind of dining out for a while on his reputation as Howard Baker's lawyer on Watergate. But presidential races don't tend to turn on resumes but on vision and plans for the future. So Thompson has an opportunity, thanks to his celebrity, to get a hearing. We'll see what he has to say.

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Smoke-Filled Rooms: In days of yore, there was drama in the two parties' conventions as the kingmakers wheeled and dealed behind the scenes to bring credible nominees to the convention floor. Now nominations are decided through the hugely expensive, front-loaded primaries, and the conventions have become little more than political pep rallies. Do you think there may have been some value in the old system that has been lost with the primary nomination process? Do you have a nostalgic longing for the now-lost convention drama?

Michael Abramowitz: I absolutely think we have lost some things as a result of the changes, but we also have gained some as well, especially greater transparency and more democracy, with a small d. I think reporters probably do have some nostalgia for the old system, but there are fewer and fewer of them that remember!

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Chicago: I was fairly stunned to see the SCOTUS ruling on pay discrimination. Seemed like a real step backward. Any chance that a Democrat uses this ruling to rally troops on the left?

Michael Abramowitz: I think that's a possibility, but I haven't seen anybody pick up the mantle yet. I do think the composition of the court will be be an issue in the next election, as the balance does appear to hang on who is elected. But this never seems to be as big an issue as you might expect.

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September: Back when the surge was announced, the big month was May. Today is the last day in May. Any chance we could catch up with those surge supporters and ask them for their objective assessment without the cheap trick of moving the calendar to "September"?

Michael Abramowitz: I am sure administration supporters will be trying to move the calendar again as September approaches. The problem for the administration is that many of their GOP supporters on the Hill seem to have internalized this latest deadline.

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Atlanta: When President Bush gazes into Vladimir Putin's eyes these days, does he still see Putin's soul?

Michael Abramowitz: I don't think so. I think he has had his eyes checked since then.

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Rockville, Md.: Eisenhower got credit for ending the war in Korea and his vice President Nixon used it as an example for ending the war in Vietnam. However, for political reasons, Nixon did not enforce the treaty as we did in Korea with our troops. Why should we avoid this as a model for Iraq?

Michael Abramowitz: I am not sure I completely follow your question, but it seems like the situation in Iraq is different than Vietnam in that it was a conventional Army from North Vietnam that ultimately ousted the South Vietnamese government. The question for Bush will be what the purpose of leaving any residual troops in Iraq would be.

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Michael Abramowitz: By the way, I am out of time -- see you all in two weeks.

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