Gurus: Candidates Turn to Iowa Experts

Drake University politics professor Dennis Goldford was online Thursday, June 7 at 3 p.m. ET to explain how presidential campaigns and their advisers operate in Iowa, why the caucuses there are important and how it all impacts average residents.

They Know How to Caucus: Teresa Vilmain and Other Experts in an Arcane Presidential Art (Post, June 7)

The transcript follows.

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Dennis Goldford: Hi! This is Dennis Goldford, Professor of Politics at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa. I'm happy to talk to you this afternoon about presidential politics and the Iowa Caucuses.

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Rockville, Md.: I guess what bothers some of us is the importance just a few people have on deciding which candidates the rest of us have to vote on. We seem to have moved from power brokers in smoke-filled rooms at conventions deciding the presidential candidates to a few power brokers in Iowa and New Hampshire making this decision. I would much prefer regional primaries so that candidates could save money, and more people would have a say in the process. The regions could rotate the order each presidential election cycle.

Dennis Goldford: The difficulty with the system we have, which developed simply as a historical accident (it's all Jimmy Carter's "fault") and which no rational person would develop intentionally, is that while it's easy to know what you oppose, it's quite difficult for everyone to agree to an alternative.

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Atlanta: Thanks Mr. Goldford. As an Iowan living -- and suffering -- far away from home, it's good to hear your comments. My question is, will the Iowa caucuses retain their importance in the future as more and more states set very early primary dates?

Dennis Goldford: That's the $64,000 question. My general hunch is that the increased front-loading of the primaries only makes the Iowa Caucuses more important, because there's no time to recover from a bad showing in Iowa. But with Tsunami Tuesday coming up in early February, we'll have a test of that hunch.

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Boston: Do you think Giuliani and McCain could be setting Romney up by clearing the field in the hopes that Huckabee stays close to or even beats Romney in the straw poll?

washingtonpost.com: Giuliani, McCain to Pass on Iowa Straw Poll (Post, June 6)

Dennis Goldford: I'm not sure how Machiavellian to get here, but Giuliani and McCain's decision not to participate in the straw poll -- which really is a circus-like event where the campaigns buy their supporters lunch, transportation, and the like (all but transportation illegal in a "real" election) -- works, I think, like the U.S. boycott of the Olympics years ago. There were winners, but without U.S. participation, just what did winning really mean?

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Stafford, Va.: Is John Edwards likely to maintain his lead in Iowa? I hope he and Obama can together overtake Hillary Clinton in the polls. I hate the idea of her becoming president. She just does not convey trust, warmth, and compatibility with the average American citizen.

Dennis Goldford: It's too far out at this point to say whether someone will maintain a lead. You have to recall that in mid-December 2003 Kerry's campaign was on life-support, almost flatlining. Then Dean imploded, Kerry ran a decent and effective TV ad, and no one else seemed an acceptable alternative at the time. Hillary may not convey the qualities you claim, but Edwards is running the danger of coming off as slick and overly ambitious. Obama's music is great, but people want to know what the lyrics might be.

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Obama winning Iowa: What are Obama's chances in winning Iowa? Is Edwards such a lock that the best Obama can expect is a second-place finish?

Dennis Goldford: Obama's been sitting at around 22 percent fairly consistently, behind both Edwards and Clinton. We're still six months out and a lot can happen. (See my answer to the previous question.)

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Re: The Iowa Straw Poll: I can't imagine the people in Iowa who consider their poll important are too happy with the number of people who are a skipping it (or who wanted to -- i.e. Clinton). It sort of makes the poll less important, doesn't it?

Dennis Goldford: Well, remember what this straw poll is. It's a non-binding tally of presidential preferences at a Republican event where the campaigns buy tickets, food and drink, entertainment and transportation for people who say they support the candidate of that campaign. The Iowa Caucuses do not themselves directly choose delegates to the national party convention, and the Ames straw poll does even less than that. The Iowa Republican party will be hurt financially, perhaps, by the nonparticipation -- and yes, without two of the current top three Republican candidates it will be like the Olympic games when the U.S. didn't participate because of a boycott.

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Washington, D.C.: Professor Goldford: I am one of your former students. I was very excited to see that you would be participating on this Web site this afternoon. I'm originally from Western Iowa. I'm wondering if you think there's a difference in the beliefs of potential caucus attendees between Western and Eastern Iowa. If so, have you noticed that the campaigns adjust to the differences? Thanks!

Dennis Goldford: I'm pleased to hear from you (e-mail me to let me know who you are -- my address is on the Drake Web site). As to your question, you first have to distinguish between Republicans and Democrats. Western Iowa is much more Republican than Eastern Iowa, and religious conservatives are extremely strong out there (that's why President Bush and VP Cheney spent so much time there in 2004). The more moderate Republicans are more likely to be in the larger cities and towns (big generalization), which are further east. Democrats seem to be the same pretty much all across the state -- including the two who live in Western Iowa!

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washingtonpost.com: What exactly is the political impetus of the Iowa Straw Poll? Do both parties have these events, or is this a GOP-only test?

Dennis Goldford: GOP only. It's a fundraiser for the state party, and they get the national campaigns to come in and spend a lot of money on the event and on donations to the state party. The Democrats have a Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner, but it's nowhere near the same.

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Bow, N.H.: I come from the land of town meetings, and I even worked for Bradley in Iowa in 2000 (a much different dynamic with only two candidates) but I find the Iowa process undemocratic and distortive of the process. Wouldn't it be better to either just let the true activists pick at one statewide meeting, or let everyone vote in a more fair way (e.g. polls open all day) rather than this hybrid?

Dennis Goldford: You raise a classic problem. The parties used to have the activists and party professionals pick nominees, but by the late 1960s, led by the Democrats, there was the opinion that this was undemocratic and led to the exclusion of groups like women, youth and minorities. The decision to open up the process through primaries and the like was supposed to increase both the number of people and the range of types of people -- but it didn't. On a national basis, only about 17 percent to 20 percent of eligible voters actually show up in primaries and caucuses, and it's no different in Iowa. Additionally, those who do show up tend to be much more ideologically polarized than the electorate at large.

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Harrisburg, Pa.: As a political scientist, how would you compare the impact upon receiving a President nomination of winning the Iowa caucus versus winning the New Hampshire Primary?

Dennis Goldford: Well, consider 1980: George H.W. Bush surprised everyone and beat Ronald Reagan (though there remain questions as to whether all of the votes/preferences actually were tallied and reported) and yet Reagan went on to trounce Bush in New Hampshire and beyond, thus winning the nomination. McCain didn't even participate in Iowa in 2000, and he trounced "W" in New Hampshire before losing badly in South Carolina. New Hampshire doesn't simply ratify what Iowa does, but Iowa especially reveals unexpected strengths and weaknesses in campaigns, candidates and campaign themes.

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Carroll, Iowa: Given that the caucus rules assign certain percentages of votes to precincts, it seems that candidates need to focus on all parts of the state. I live in Western Iowa and am surprised that they primarily focus on Eastern Iowa. Do you think that's a wise move on their part?

Dennis Goldford: You could say that candidates should focus all across the state, but no one has unlimited resources (time, money, etc.) and you need to remember that the further west you go the more Republican you get, and the further east you go the more Democratic you get. That's why Bush and Cheney repeatedly visited Sioux City in late 2004. Candidates go where the people are. Yes, there are caucuses all across the state, but the campaigns simply make decisions out of necessity. They're not always wise decisions.

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Santa Clara, Calif.: How would a viable "third-party" candidacy affect the caucus process, or is there a way for any meaningful third-party candidate to participate? (From a Drake alum.)

Dennis Goldford: The caucuses are party-specific events. You have to be, or register right there to be, a Republican to attend a Republican caucus, and the same for the Democrats. If you're a third-party person or independent and will not re-register as either an Republican or a Democrat, you simply cannot participate in the caucus. Additionally, people always talk about third-party candidacies, but the system is stacked, if you will, in favor of two major parties. It hasn't always been the same two major parties -- the last time a third party really did come to replace one of the two major parties was the Republican party in the 1850s.

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Meridian, Idaho: I think that Giuliani's and McCain's reasons for pulling out of the Ames straw poll is not because of its lack of importance vis-a-vis the costs (cash, time, etc.) involved. Rather, I think it's because they knew they were going to be beaten soundly, and this was their best strategic response. Do you agree, or am I all wet? Thank you for taking my question.

Dennis Goldford: This of course is what many people will suspect, and the other campaigns will want to spin their decision this way in order to pound on them for it. It stands to reason that if you have a chance to crush your competitors you take it, which implies that if you don't take it you must think that you don't have a chance to crush the other guys. Still, remember that Iowa Republicans tend to have a pretty substantial component of social and religious conservatives (as opposed to New Hampshire) who, while some support Giuliani and McCain, do not and have not taken to Giuliani and McCain. Given the front-loading of the primaries -- and remember, Giuliani and McCain still are contesting the actual caucuses -- it's not irrational to think of saving the $3 million-or-so for actual delegate contests. Still, it's a risk.

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washingtonpost.com: Is there a Democratic equivalent of the Iowa Straw Poll? If not, why not? What's the history of the event?

Dennis Goldford: As I mentioned earlier, the Straw Poll is a strictly Republican event, one that has been around for roughly 30 years. The Democrats have their Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner, and Sen. Harkin traditionally throws an annual steak-fry, but the Dems have chosen not to do anything as grandiose as the Ames event (and the latter really must be experienced to be believed).

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Shreveport, La.: How do you get a campaign organized in Iowa? Also, you mentioned lunch and "the like" -- what does "the like" look like?

Dennis Goldford: As to the like, I meant beverages, keepsakes, etc. Nothing of major importance.

Organizing a campaign in Iowa starts with contacts with party activists and potential supporters "on the ground" here in the state. The caucuses are an organizational event -- you really need supporters to contact potentially friendly folks, encourage them to turn out for the caucuses, and to get them to turn out for sure on caucus night. So a media campaign is not something that gets the job done very effectively. Remember that unlike primary and general elections -- when voters typically have 12-14 hours to go vote at a time of their choosing in a private voting booth -- in the caucuses you have to show up at 6:30 p.m. on a Monday evening in January (they've also been in February and March -- but the point is, it's winter) hoping the babysitter shows up and there's no blizzard. So the caucuses are more like a neighborhood town-hall meeting than like a voting-booth election. It's hard political work to organize.

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Washington, D.C.: Having left the Drake faculty seven years ago (thereby increasing the average IQ of both Des Moines and Washington) I feel like I'm out of touch with the on-the-ground stuff out there. Great to have you doing the chat, Dennis! My question: I have this feeling that Edwards is too "slick" for the Heartland, and that the better they get to know him the worse he'll do in the caucuses. Anything to that? I just think he was a fresh face last time and won't wear well. Also, belated congratulations on the originalism book!

Dennis Goldford: Hello and thanks for your comments! (E-mail me to let me know who you are.) Yes, Edwards remains in front for the time being, but he's had a tough spring -- looking a bit slick and overly ambitious. If he becomes known as the guy with the $400 hair, he'll be trouble. He's also running to the left, with Hillary running to the right (in Democratic terms) and Obama, like Bill Bradley in 2000, running "up" so to speak (against politics as usual). Edwards thus seems to be the non-screaming Dean this time around, and the question is -- as you ask -- how well will that wear? I don't think Edwards can survive a poor showing in Iowa.

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Arlington, Va.: If Florida moves its primary up, how will that affect Iowa and the other states? Will the parties try to punish an important swing state like Florida for violating its rules?

Dennis Goldford: Second question first: the national parties have no authority to "order" a state party to do anything. National parties are something like trade associations of the state parties; American political parties are, for the most part, defined, chartered, organized and regulated principally at the state level (sort of like the old Articles of Confederation arrangement of the states). Both parties need Florida's electoral votes desperately, so they're not going to alienate those folks. As to your first question, it could cause candidates to spend somewhat less time in Iowa and more in Florida, but the old saw is that there are only three tickets out of Iowa: first, second and third. So candidates want to do well enough in Iowa to get to Florida (and New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada).

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Shreveport, La.: Thanks! In Louisiana "the like" is $5 a vote, and they threaten to turn your utilities off if you don't vote.

Dennis Goldford: Ah, yes! :)

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Harrisburg, Pa.: Are there potential problems with being the frontrunner this early in Iowa? Doesn't this build the expectation that, even if a candidate not in the national lead "upsets" in Iowa, the Iowa result had been expected for so long that it no longer would be an upset?

Dennis Goldford: Expectations are the name of the game. I always say that every candidate runs against exactly the same opponent: "Expected." The question is, did you do better than expected or worse than expected? That's why you'll see each campaign low-balling expectations as we get close to the caucuses, so that they lower the bar in order to say how well the exceeded it. An "upset," as I understand the term, would be a contradiction of an expectation.

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Arlington, Va.: I grew up in Iowa (Des Moines) and am glad to find a Drake professor educating some of the inside-the-Beltway crowd on the Iowa caucuses. Thanks! If you could change one or two elements of the caucus process to improve it, what would it/they be? Alternately, what do you think are the most effective aspects (in terms of political participation or however you would define it) about the caucus process?

Dennis Goldford: What would I change? Well, first and foremost, I'd wave my magic wand and try to at least to triple the participation. When you get only the 15 percent to 20 percent typical of caucuses (and sometimes less than that) you allow small, minority segments of the parties who are intensely motivated by an issue or a candidate to exert a disproportionate influence. Second, as a part of general citizen participation, I'd strongly encourage all these new folks to stick around and discuss and debate proposals for the state party platform, instead of leaving after the presidential-preference part of the evening is over. Then you'd have some training in citizen democracy.

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Washington, D.C.: Do campaigns tend to bring in out-of-state volunteers to help out the weekend before that Monday? Is this essentially a door-to-door effort, or by then is the real work already done?

Dennis Goldford: In 2004 the Dean campaign was famous -- or infamous -- for bringing in hordes of out-of-state volunteers -- and for not knowing how to use them effectively. As in any campaign, the really hard work has to be done long prior to the caucus or election. The last weekend is when you concentrate on getting people you know support your candidate to turn out; there's no more time to try to "convert" new supporters.

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washingtonpost.com: What do you think of Mitt Romney's strategy of "paying nearly five dozen county-level supporters up to $1,000 each per month, going well beyond the half a dozen regional field staff members whom campaigns typically employ this early in the season"? Will it pay off?

Dennis Goldford: Well, Romney obviously thinks this tactic will pay off. To give him credit, remember that he came into this contest and into this state as pretty much a complete unknown, so he's had to do a lot of work to define himself (before any opponents define him negatively) in a way that will win him support, or at least a willingness to listen to his message. And to do so, you need organizers on the ground. On the other hand, recall "President" Phil Gramm, who bragged of having the best friend you could have in politics -- ready money. He didn't survive caucus night in 1996.

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Reading, Mass.: Is there a candidate in either party running for president who opposes federal support for ethanol production? It would take political courage to be honest about this farm subsidy disguised as an environmental cause.

Dennis Goldford: I don't know of any such candidate, though ethanol now seems to be seen as a realistic energy alternative and thus not simply a farm subsidy. That's not a view, as you imply, that is immune to criticism.

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Belmond, Iowa: It seems to me as the years go by, many in the media are questioning why the Iowa caucuses are so important. It seems that large states, including California, are getting very close to usurping Iowa's and New Hampshire's places as the first battlegrounds in the primaries. Do you foresee Iowa losing its "first in the nation" status?

Dennis Goldford: I've been joking (okay, only semi-joking) recently that the 2012 Iowa Caucuses will take place in July 2010. Every state wants more of a role in the process, but remember what Iowa does and does not do. It does not determine who will be the presidential nominee; it tends to determine who will not be the presidential nominee, by revealing -- as I noted earlier -- unexpected weakness in candidates, campaigns and campaign themes (along with unexpected strengths of other campaigns in the same regard). Also remember that Iowa is about those expectations, not delegates, whereas California, Florida, New York, North Carolina, etc. are about delegates -- and delegates are what make you the nominee.

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Boston: Robert Novak posits that the Iowa Democrats simply lost their nerve to vote for Dean in 2004 (his caucus defeat was the cause of the scream, not the result) and that something similar might happen in 2008. Do you agree about 2004, and is anyone positioned to capitalize on an Edwards collapse the way he benefited from Dean's? As a technical point, I have heard that what really flipped Dean and Edwards was the second round of voting after those with less than 15 percent were eliminated. Is that true?

Dennis Goldford: Complicated and sophisticated question. I need you in my class!

I agree that Dean basically imploded in late 2003 and early 2004 (the caucuses, if I remember correctly, were on Jan. 12). Democrats just got increasingly nervous about how stable and grounded a candidate he'd be, given his tendency to say incendiary things. Yes, the scream came after the defeat, not before. As to the voting issue, many folks are unfamiliar with the fact that while Republicans use a straightforward preference vote (usually secret, sometimes a show of hands) to indicate their choice of nominee, the Democrats use what they call preference groups. After the caucus comes to order and a count of participants is done, they physically divide into groups in different parts of the room. Any preference group with less than 15 percent of caucus attendees is not viable, and they have to go to the undecided group or to other candidates' groups. So a candidate's strength as reported based on his or her preference group will include folks whose first choice was someone else. Finally, because Edwards is running as the "anti-Hillary," it would seem likely that Obama, at this point at least, would be the beneficiary of an Edwards collapse. I don't know whether Richardson can do it yet, and Biden, Dodd and Kucinich aren't threatening to break out yet either.

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Bow, N.H.: What will happen in Iowa if Billy Gardner flips his lid and schedules the New Hampshire primary for December?

Dennis Goldford: I believe there's an Iowa law that requires that the caucuses occur eight days prior to the first "major" presidential primary. If New Hampshire moves forward, that will move Iowa forward as well.

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Dennis Goldford: Thanks for all the interesting questions. I've enjoyed our hour together and look forward to another such opportunity.

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