Outlook: Bush's Recent Blunders Leave Him Base-less

National Review White House correspondent Byron York was online Monday, July 9 at noon ET to explain how, by aligning himself with Ted Kennedy on immigration and offering only halfway forgiveness to Scooter Libby, president Bush abandoned the only backers he had left.

Base to Bush: It's Over (Post, July 8)

The transcript follows.

Archive: Transcripts of discussions with Outlook article authors

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Byron York: Hi, everyone. I'm glad to be here to discuss my article in yesterday's Outlook section. So let's get started...

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Harrisburg, Pa.: Would you prefer a president arrive in office from a particular conservative base and then use that base of knowledge to make the best independent judgment on all issues on their own merits, or should the president act according to the majority opinions of that conservative base, or should decisions be based on something else?

Byron York: I believe a president has to keep the support of his base -- without it, he wouldn't be able to govern. In the case of immigration, however, the GOP base was perplexed by the president's actions because a majority of Americans -- not just a majority of the base, but a majority of the public as a whole -- opposed some key elements of the reform bill. Some in the base also felt the president had singled them out for criticism as people who did not want what was best for America. When he said that they were very, very unhappy.

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Alpharetta, Ga.: Does this make it safer for presidential candidates to criticize the President in the GOP primaries? (By the way, did you see the "Elephant Looks in the Mirror" study with GOP segments?)

washingtonpost.com: Poll shows many Republicans favor universal healthcare, gays in military (The Hill, June 28)

Byron York: I think it's inevitable that Republican presidential candidates will step up their criticisms of President Bush as the campaign goes on. Up until now most of their criticism has been indirect, as when Mitt Romney says, "I like to veto bills" and suggested that he would be delighted to veto lots and lots of spending measures. John McCain has said similar things, and Rudy Giuliani has stressed his record of keeping government spending under control. Those points resonate with the base, in part because the president has not made controlling spending a priority.

On Iraq, we'll have to see, but I think it's possible that a top-tier GOP candidate will begin to move away from Bush in the fall. I'm not saying that from any inside knowledge of the candidates' intentions, but there will be a lot of pressure to chart a new course in Iraq, especially if the president is resistant.

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Philadelphia: Dear Byron, have you not noticed (or has the base not noticed) the Supreme Court this term? Regardless of how you feel about these decisions, it's hard to argue Bush's appointment's didn't play a critical role in these outcomes. Given the propensity of GOP-ers to favor them, shouldn't they be very happy about at least that facet of the Bush presidency?

Byron York: You're absolutely right. I think it's fair to say that the nominations of John Roberts and Samuel Alito are the only real successes of the president's second term. And they are big successes; as far as I can tell, the GOP base is very happy with them, and happy with Bush for appointing them. It's just the other things finally have begun to outweigh them.

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Arlington, Va.: Do you think that Bush commuted the sentence instead of issuing a pardon because it would allow the appeals process to continue -- thus preserving his favorite dodge that he won't comment on an ongoing legal proceeding? Also, why did Libby pay the fine now instead of after his appeals end? Thanks.

Byron York: No, I think Bush issued the commutation -- instead of a pardon or staying out of it altogether -- because he thought it was the right thing to do.

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New York: Mr. York, your article was extraordinarily interesting. Thank you for writing it, and thanks to The Post for printing such a singular perspective. I have noticed in my own extended family (much political talk, mostly conservative except for myself) that there has been a jump from "everything is going great in Iraq" to "can you imagine how terrible a president Hillary would be?" The acknowledgment of the terrible errors of the past six years seems, at best, beneath the surface and unvoiced. Can we expect a larger, more public accounting from those who followed this president down so many questionable, deeply damaging paths? Or will the dialogue switch immediately to "oh those terrible Dems"?

Byron York: I would expect the latter. Elections are always one candidate versus the other candidate, and when the campaign is in full swing and there are two nominated candidates, everyone will be in full partisan mode.

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Silver Spring, Md.: The Clintons betrayed their base with regularity (gays in the military, NAFTA, welfare reform, Rwanda, most-favored nation status for China) yet they are more popular than ever in the Democratic party. What is the difference in the Republican base versus the Democratic base as they respond to betrayals of core principles by their leadership?

Byron York: I think the thing that accounted for much of Bill Clinton's popularity in 1998-2000 was the fact that the opposition party was trying to drive him from office. Once some enormous battle like that has been joined, both sides become quite tribal -- it's our guys versus their guys, and you stick with your guy, whatever reservations you have about him. If Bush faced some challenge like that, I'm sure the GOP base would rally behind him.

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Fairfax, Va.: Why are some of the most prominent members of the GOP advocating defeat in Iraq vis a vis a cut and run strategy espoused by the Democrat party? Doesn't that make them just as bad as the Dems they have been working so hard to suppress for the betterment of America? Is it time to move to Canada?

Byron York: I think it's important to point out that the Republicans I've talked to around the country who are unhappy with the war are unhappy because Bush hasn't won. They don't talk about Bush lying the country into war or "American empire" or any of that stuff. Instead, they believe the military was placed under too-restrictive rules of engagement and that the president didn't go in with enough force to win. Now, in the fifth year of the war, they are less receptive to the president's declarations that it will be a long struggle.

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New York: Re the Supreme Court nominations: Is it true that every time Bush did something the base responded to, he had to be pushed there by Conservative commentators? I'd except his pro-life decisions from this, but otherwise, what do you think? Was the base happy with his education program, for instance? Thanks so much for the chat.

Byron York: I think Bush certainly responded to the base in the Harriet Miers nomination. Conservatives were outraged by the choice of Miers -- with so many superstars in the conservative legal world, they thought she was a terrible choice -- and the noise they made forced the White House to back off.

As far as the base and No Child Left Behind, that's a mixed story, because it's a measure that cuts both ways. On the one hand it can be seen as too much federal interference in education, but on the other hand it's an accountability measure. So you have a mix of opinion.

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Charlottesville, Va.: Given that the president's support among Republicans still is hovering around 60 percent, how do you explain the base of that support? Are these folks simply Republican loyalists? How much decline in the base of the Republican Party can we attribute to the train wreck engineered by the Bush administration?

Byron York: Well, 60 percent is not very good for a president's base. But of the Republicans I have talked to outside of Washington, there is still a foundation of support for the president personally. They believe he is a good man who has tried to do the right thing. But they were very upset by the Harriet Miers nomination and especially by immigration. So some of them are just ready for him to leave, even though they still respect him and wish him success.

As for the Republican party as a whole, they have proved perfectly capable of making their own mistakes. But I think it's fair to say that the level of unhappiness created by the war in Iraq has been a huge drag on Republicans and will remain so for quite a while.

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New York: If the president thought the commutation was the right thing to do, does that indicate that he did not know -- or did condone -- the Office of the Vice President's actions in the affair? Thanks so much for the chat.

Byron York: Well, the Libby trial was about the very limited question of whether Libby lied about his telephone conversations with Tim Russert and Matt Cooper. No one else was charged with any other wrongdoing.

I think there is a subtext to some of the commentary I've heard in the past couple of weeks about the Libby case. It seems to be based on the idea that if Libby just could be brought before Democrats in Congress, then it finally would blow the lid off Dick Cheney's role in ... well, everything. But Libby did testify extensively in the case -- a total of eight hours before Patrick Fitzgerald's grand jury. That testimony was played in its entirety in Libby's trial. Fitzgerald was looking for wrongdoing and never charged anyone other than Libby. It's unlikely that White House critics will find the Holy Grail of wrongdoing that they seem to think is hidden somewhere under Cheney's desk.

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Silver Spring, Md.: The media has been bedazzled by the perceived power of the liberal netroots to the point that they failed to see that conservatives have been just as involved in asserting themselves. I find it funny that it took the immigration debate for the chattering classes to discover conservatives were using the Internet and talk radio to assert themselves. We've been doing this to great effect since the late '90s. (Remember impeachment? Or Dan Rather?)

The only thing different this time was that the White House officially reached out to conservative Web sites like Red State and Free Republic in an unsuccessful attempt to make their case. As a conservative at Free Republic, I find it frustrating that it took six years (and that issue) for the Bush administration to finally reach out to its activist base.

Byron York: I would agree with you that the lion's share of press attention has been given to the liberal netroots. It's clear that politicians like Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid now pay a lot of attention to their Internet base. I can't explain why the White House took so long to get around to it, given the role that conservatives on the 'Net played in the Miers and immigration defeats.

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Phoenix: In the light of the abject failure of the Bush presidency on so many fronts, do you think the GOP's conservative/religious right wing will be subjugated to the party's more moderate/liberal wing in the next election cycle and possibly beyond in order to present a more palatable face to independent/swing voters?

Byron York: I wouldn't put it that way. I think the Republican base is deeply concerned about national security, and that -- along with the desire for a candidate who has the ability to get things done -- accounts for the current popularity of Rudy Giuliani. I think the correct way to say it is that cultural issues still will be quite important in the Republican primary process -- but given the national security concerns, not quite as important as during the last contested primaries in 2000.

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Raleigh, N.C.: "I think it's important to point out that the Republicans I've talked to around the country who are unhappy with the war are unhappy because Bush hasn't won." So are these Republicans supportive of a big troop increase, or what?

Byron York: I think they believe Bush should have done that sometime in the first four years of the war.

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Long Island, N.Y.: Byron, thanks for the chat. Is there any sense within the Bush camp that they comprehend how an apparent majority of the country is looking forward to January 20, 2009 -- regardless of who's elected? We hear all these statements that the president doesn't read polls and believes that history will redeem his choices, but does anyone in the administration consider the possibility that maybe they were wrong on the big issues of our times and that the public realized it first?

Byron York: No, I don't think they believe they were wrong on the big issues. And the whole January 20, 2009 thing, for Republicans, is a double-edged sword. Certainly Republicans are hoping for another Republican president -- soon. But some of them also believe that if defeat is in the cards, best get it over with and get the party rebuilding process under way.

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Poplar Bluff, Mo.: Thanks for taking questions. If President Bush's approval ratings are still at rock bottom next summer and fall, will the president further insulate himself in the Oval Office if there are no offers to campaign for congressional Republicans?

Byron York: Well, if you're the Republican candidate and the Republican president is at 30 percent, you would like to find that 30 percent and have the president direct his efforts toward them.

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Detroit: As a loyal, conservative Republican, I believe George W. Bush will go down as one our worst Presidents in history. He has destroyed our foreign policy and has made the US less secure than Bill Clinton, which I never thought was possible. Who can on the Republican side can save our party?

Byron York: I think you might want to reconsider things. I don't believe that Bush has made the U.S. less secure than Clinton. As the president says, we were attacked on September 11, well before we invaded Iraq and well before the rest of the world is said to have lost its respect for us. The fact is that there are Islamic extremists out there who are working very hard to destroy the United States, and George Bush has recognized that and done much to fight them. But it's not about Bush; I feel certain those extremists will keep up their efforts regardless of who is the next president.

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Byron York: That's it, everyone. Thanks very much for having me, and I hope we can speak again sometime.

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