Cuba Celebrates Anniversary, Feels Out Transition

Manuel Roig-Franzia
Washington Post Mexico City Bureau Chief
Tuesday, July 31, 2007 1:00 PM

Washington Post Mexico City bureau chief Manuel Roig-Franzia was online Tuesday, July 31 at 1 p.m. ET to discuss Cuba as it celebrates the anniversary of its revolution for the first time since President Fidel Castro had surgery and passed power to his brother, Raul.

Raul Castro Presents Plans for Cuba's Future (Post, July 27)

A Wave of Uncertainty: U.S.-Cuban Migration Policy (washingtonpost.com, July 31)

Related Discussions: Two Cuban Rafters | AEI Scholar Mark Falcoff

The transcript follows.

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Manuel Roig-Franzia: Hello from Havana. Raul Castro made a big speech last week, promising economic reforms and more business deals with foreign investors. Fidel hasn't been seen in more than a year. Lots to talk about.

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Washington: I have a land deed from my grandfather, who came to the U.S. in the 1950s (his land then was seized by the government). Is there any chance it would be recognized? Do you have any advice for reclaiming the land?

Manuel Roig-Franzia: Ah, one of the great questions about a post-Fidel Cuba, whenever that might be...

Manuel Roig-Franzia: The streets of Havana are lined with lusciously decaying pre-Revolutionary mansions that once belonged to someone else. The same goes for thousands of acres of farmland seized by the Cuban government.

I know there are exile lawyers, especially in places such as Miami, who are studying this knotty question. I'm not a lawyer, but it would seem to me that the Cuban government would have to agree to any sort of reclaiming of land, and it has shown no signs of doing so.

Interestingly, U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez, who was born in Cuba and left the island as a child in the Catholic Church's "Peter Pan" program, is on the record strongly urging Cuban exiles not to try to reclaim property after Fidel's death. His ancestral home is now a state-run facility and he has said he has no plans to try to make it his own.

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Washington: Thousands (or millions) of Cubans defected/escaped to the U.S. the past 40 years. Maybe fewer than 10 Americans migrated to Cuba. Is that freedom?

Manuel Roig-Franzia: You're way low on the number of Americans here. I'll let the chat readers decide whether these numbers say something about freedom

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Washington: What do you see in the short-term and long-term for the Cuban government in regards to economic and diplomatic action? Also, how will this affect U.S. policy towards Cuba?

Manuel Roig-Franzia: Based on Raul's remarks at the Cuban Revolution Day ceremony last Thursday, it's pretty clear that he's written off any dealings with the Bush administration. He mentioned an "olive branch" to the next administration, but he's said that before.

Raul did mention trying to seek more foreign investment on the island, but said nothing about the U.S. being involved that, which may come as a disappointment to Midwestern and southern farmers who want more access to the Cuban market.

U.S. policy toward Cuba has shown little signs of changing, though a bipartisan group of Congress members have been pushing to lift the trade embargo.

There's no question that there seems to be a personal animus between U.S. leaders and Fidel Castro, who has made condemnations of "U.S. imperialism" a part of his public dialogue for decades. Raul is picking up those same themes, but it's too early to tell whether he's merely rehashing his brother's rhetorical line.

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Arlington, Va.: What's Havana like? Is there any new construction going on?

Manuel Roig-Franzia: Havana can be a seductive place. Beautiful architecture in varying states of decay -- think New Orleans, but more crumbling. There's a vibrant street life, in great part because the transportation system is so bad that people walk everywhere. There is no neighborhood in Havana where someone isn't walking down the sidewalk almost every hour of the day.

Music is everywhere, pouring out of homes, bars and restaurants. Young Cuban boys and men are shirtless much of the time because of the heavy humidity and because Cuban homes and apartments have no air conditioning.

Boxy Soviet-era Ladas and vintage U.S. cars roll down the streets, at least when they're working. They say everyone is a mechanic in Cuba because those fabulous old hulks -- Havana is a car collector's fantasyland -- break down constantly. Cars with their hoods up -- usually held in place with an old stick -- are everywhere.

The police are everywhere too, and are especially suspicious of Cubans interacting with foreigners. My taxi driver was questioned for 30 minutes as we were on our way to the parking lot several evenings ago. A friend -- an American exile who has lived here for more than 30 years and looks Cuban -- was stopped by police who demanded his ID and called his name in to headquarters as we were strolling this morning down Obispo, one of the city's main shopping streets.

There are lines everywhere because of food shortages -- the Cuban government blames this problem on the U.S. trade embargo, which severely restricts Cuba's access to markets. The salsa clubs sizzle into the wee hours.

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Amherst, Mass.: Thanks for hosting this chat. Has there been any reaction within Cuba to the ongoing debate between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama as to whether, if elected, they would meet with -- among other nations' leaders -- Fidel Castro?

washingtonpost.com: Clinton-Obama Fight (Post, July 31)

Manuel Roig-Franzia: Not much news from the U.S. gets here, so there hasn't even been a hint of a reaction. U.S. television stations only can be accessed by illegal satellite dishes, which are much fewer in number after a crackdown last year.

Cubans can, however, pick up some Florida radio stations and pick up snippets of news there. More and more Cubans are getting access to the Internet -- they buy cards that allow them to check e-mail -- but most Internet centers (and there aren't many) limit which Web sites can be visited.

One place Cubans certainly are not getting news is Radio or TV Marti, the U.S. government stations that broadcast news and propaganda to the island. Despite a new influx of money from the Bush administration, the stations' signals seldom penetrate the island and are scrambled by Cuban officials. Cubans talk about wishing they could watch telenovelas (soap operas) from Miami, but it's a rare thing indeed for any Cuban, even confidentially, to mention anything about Radio/TV Marti.

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Laurel, Md.: If Raul takes over, and his plans for a loosening of trade and opening up of markets is accepted by the broader Cuban Communist Party, then the United States' policy for the past (almost) 50 years will be for nothing. If the United States never had implemented the embargo, capital would have flowed much sooner, and the Cuban CP would have embraced Raul's idea much earlier.

Manuel Roig-Franzia: No question here, but I'll post in the interest of stimulating discussion

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Washington: It's interesting to contrast the U.S. approach taken towards two communist countries in the past several decades -- China and Cuba -- one based on trade and the other based on embargo. I don't think anyone can claim the embargo-based policy a success under any definition. Why is there so much reluctance to change course? It is simple pride? The power of the Cuban lobby?

Manuel Roig-Franzia: Most political analysts give the credit -- or the blame -- for the endurance of the embargo to Florida's influential Cuban exile population. The exiles, especially in Miami, are organized, well-funded and well-connected. And, oh yeah, Florida is kind of important in U.S. presidential politics...

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Venice, Fla.: Candidates from both parties appear to be lining up along the traditional lines of opposing changes in Cuba policy in order to protect their chances of winning votes from the Cuban exile community in Florida. Given that several polls in Miami of Cuban-Americans indicate a broad shift in public opinion toward favoring diplomatic relations and easing of travel restrictions, is it possible that some candidates boldly will offer new alternatives?

Manuel Roig-Franzia: That'll be interesting to watch. I've seen similar polls.

I'll never forget election night 2004, a night I spent in Miami's Little Havana. Outside the venerable restaurant Versailles, hundreds of Bush supporters waved flags and chanted slogans. Across the street, where John Kerry had taken the confrontational step of placing his local headquarters, were hundreds of Kerry supporters.

On the Versailles side of the street, much of the talk was about confronting Fidel Castro and preserving the embargo. On the other side of the street hardly anyone was talking about Fidel -- instead they were talking about the same things most American voters talk about: education, the economy, the war in Iraq.

The crowds on both sides of the street were Cuban Americans, but the Kerry supporters were much younger. I know that night in Little Havana was a small, unscientific sampling, but it seems to be in line with the conclusions of pollsters and analysts who believe second-generation Cuban Americans are much less fired up about the embargo and might be more likely to accept a loosening of that policy or ending it altogether.

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Munich, Germany: In what way or in which ways has Fidel Castro been an impediment to efforts to bring more businesses to Cuba? I recall reading that Raul Castro was once the true communist idealist amongst the brothers, but now Raul Castro intends to discuss improved relations with the U.S. and consider opening itself further to foreign investment. Was it the aura or personality of Fidel Castro that has prevented any meaningful discussions with the U.S.? In other words, has there just been too much bad blood between Fidel Castro and the U.S. for either side to look for compromises? If so, you'd think that things would change fairly quickly after he's gone...

Manuel Roig-Franzia: Not so fast. Change may come, but don't forget that there is a government structure in Cuba, and Raul will have to deal with politburo members and Communist Party officials who may be less inclined to make dramatic alterations.

As for Fidel being an impediment to expanding foreign investment, it's thought that he felt the opening of the economy to tourist businesses accomplished its purpose of stabilizing the Cuban economy after the fall of the Soviet Union, but that he felt the opening had gone far enough. Raul, on the other hand, is generally believed to have wanted to go further. Raul's speech last week certainly seemed to follow that pattern.

It will be fascinating to watch Raul in these days while Fidel is still around, and after. Many people who know him believe that he has been underestimated and that he will apply administrative skills in a way that his brother -- who has benefited greatly from his charisma -- has not.

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Arlington, Va.: What was the mood in Cuba while you were there? Do people talk openly about the future of the island without Fidel Castro?

Manuel Roig-Franzia: Well, things are complicated about the Cuban mood.

By U.S. standards, people here are poor -- very poor -- and Cubans are complaining about this louder and louder. Many homes have no showers, no one has air conditioning, there are chronic food shortages. As Raul Castro acknowledged last week, Cubans don't make enough money to pay for basic needs. What he didn't mention -- but everyone knows -- is that most Cubans go to the black market for food, clothing, almost everything. The black market is fed by state workers who steal from the companies where they work.

Okay, so all that sounds pretty dire. But the flip side is that while Cubans are poor, no one is starving here. Cubans get enough food -- legally and illegally -- to get by. They are in remarkably good health -- some studies show Cubans with a higher life expectancy than Americans. They get free education and health care. Cubans boast of 100 percent literacy, though some analyses place the figure at 98 percent.

As for the future without Fidel, many Cubans will tell you they already are living it. They don't expect the nation's politics to change much, but they are hopeful that economic conditions will improve -- a hope, by the way, that they expressed while Fidel was still a daily presence in their lives.

Cubans are opinionated and happy to talk about politics, though they often don't want to be quoted by name in newspaper stories for fear of repercussions. But bring up politics and Cubans usually will shift swiftly from the nuts and bolts of who is running the country to the essential questions of whether they are going to have more, better pay and an improved quality of life.

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Seattle: I've watched for more than 20 years as various presidents and elected leaders predict Castro's downfall. Now it looks like there won't be any revolution. Are there any signs that the Cuban Americans in South Florida will cool down when Fidel dies and Raul takes his place?

Manuel Roig-Franzia: The Cuban-Americans in South Florida, while passionate in their distaste for Fidel Castro, seem to have been cooling for years. There was a time when exile groups openly trained in the Everglades for military assaults on the island, but most of the leaders of those movements have died or grown old and there is less and less talk of invasions and assaults, and more and more talk of finding political solutions.

That said, I don't think Cuban exiles think of Raul any differently than Fidel. They say this transition is "replacing one dictator with another dictator." Interestingly Raul, in his speech last week, used the word "democracy" to describe Cuba's political system.

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Middleway, W.Va.: Beyond tourism, what are the areas of Cuba's economy that seem to be relatively strong or have potential at this point?

Manuel Roig-Franzia: Cuba does well selling nickel. And they're inviting in countries with whom they have good relations, such as Venezuela, Vietnam and China, to explore for oil. Some Cubans dream of a big oil strike that will save the nation's economy, a la Chavez's Venezuela, though there are analysts who say that might be difficult because of the high cost of extracting oil with extremely deepwater platforms.

Cuba's agricultural sector really is struggling, and its farmers got a tongue-lashing from Raul last week, who wants them to be more efficient and produce more. Thousands of acres of land lie unplanted, and all the while Cuba is having to pay large sums to import most of its food.

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Manuel Roig-Franzia: Thanks for all these terrific, thoughtful questions. Looks like our time is up and I apologize to the many people who sent in questions that I didn't have time to answer. Hopefully we'll get a chance to do this again soon.

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