Post-Fidel Plans for U.S.-Cuba Relations, Migration Policy

American Enterprise Institute scholar Mark Falcoff, author of " Cuba the Morning After: Confronting Castro's Legacy," and an essay on " When Dictators Die" was online Thursday, Aug. 2 at 10 a.m. ET to explain options for changing U.S.-Cuba relations and migration policy one year after Cuban leader Fidel Castro's historic transfer of power to his brother, Raul Castro.

A Wave of Uncertainty: U.S.-Cuban Migration Policy (washingtonpost.com, July 31)

Related Discussions: Post Reporter Miguel Roig-Franzia, 1 p.m Tuesday ET| Two Cuban Rafters, Noon Wednesday ET

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Mark Falcoff: Good morning, readers. I am happy to be with you.

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Severn, Md.: I visited Cuba for a month in 1996. I spoke to political and economic leaders and befriended a diplomat in their "state department." I also took the time to have dinner with poor families in the "projects" and hear about their lives and their families. The one thing I noticed is that the government intentially limits the amount of wealth a person can accumulate by limiting access and limiting the size of independently owned businesses. In fact the government limits the wallets of the people. It would seem to me that if the people had more stake in the economy, and greater access to money, they would demand greater rights. Right now they have little stake in anything because they own nothing. If the U.S. were to lift trade and travel restrictions to Cuba, this would benefit "the people" by providing them more access to cash. Once they had a greater stake, they would demand more from the government to preserve their interests. I believe that U.S. actions assist Cuba remaining communist by making the population in Cuba poorer than they should be.

Mark Falcoff: I think you are half right. The legalization of the holding of dollars in the 90s created a whole new class of Cubans who owed nothing to the government. This was because they received remittances from relatives abroad. They could buy items in dollar stores and get enough to eat, for example.

However, they were not allowed to start businesses or engage in any kind of independent economic activity. This is the nub of the matter. Lifting the travel ban would not necessarily change this state of affairs. There might be other reasons to do so, but it does not follow automatically that giving Cubans more access to the U.S. dollar would enhance their economic independence, given the way the society and polity are structured.

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Pasadena, Calif.: I was in Spain recently and the press (particularly El Pais, the country's largest newspaper) was indicating that Raul Castro recognized the country's many economic problems and was taking steps to correct them. Nevertheless, I got the impression that so far there was more talk than action on economic reform. Do you see any concrete changes at this time, and if so, how much can Raul actually do while Fidel is still around?

Mark Falcoff: This is a subject of great speculation, because it is know that in the early 1990s it was Raul who was fascinated by the Chinese model and convinced his brother to loosen up controls and allowed greater economic autonomy to the farmer's markets, etc. Since then, however, much of the concessions made in that period have been withdrawn, because of the improved flow of dollars from Chavez.

Most people who know Cuba think Raul would like to make more changes but has not done so yet because his brother, who is ideologically opposed to them, is still alive. What he will do when Fidel dies remains to be seen.

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Philadelphia: What is so frustrating to me, is that there appear to be almost no voices of reason on any side. We have political rhetoric coming from La Habana, Miami and Washington alike; none of them speaking frankly. In the midst of all this, the Cubans themselves (and I am not referring to the permanent exiles of Miami) are forgotten by all.

I know quite a few people who have and are suffering as a result of this political football. Do you know of anyone with a voice, politically speaking, or with any sort of political position who is speaking seriously and responsibly who spares a thought for those who are caught in this political game of football?

Mark Falcoff: Actually there is a richer dialogue going on, available to those who read Spanish. For example, the important cultural magazine ENCUENTRO (published in Spain), advocates national reconciliation and dialogue between the two Cubas, the community on the island and the diaspora.

Also, some human rights leaders in Cuba like Oswaldo Paya have refused to accept US money, not because they are anti-U.S. but because they do not want to compromise their independence.

People forget that many Cubans visit their families on the island (often more times a year than is legal, by going through third countries), phone calls, letters, remittances, etc.

Also the Miami community is in transition. Most of those who have arrived since the 1994 migration agreements do not share the view of the "historic" emigration, that U.S.-Cuban relations have to be necessarily conflictive.

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Washington: Thanks for taking my question. I understand that the embargo is here to stay, at least for the time being. But what is the rationale for keeping the travel ban in place? I would think that an influx of American tourists into Cuba would foster capitalism within the country, giving the populace a view of what life could be like with a free market and serving to undermine the current regime. Also, it seems that most Cuban tourist resorts are owned by foreign (largely Spanish) companies ... so I'm not even sure tourism would prove as much of a cash cow to the regime. What are your thoughts?

Mark Falcoff: It seems to me that the embargo makes no sense if we are going to lift the travel ban, since tourism is bound to be the country's major source of income for many years to come.

I am less convinced that an influx of tourists would particularly change the outlook of Cubans (whatever that outlook might be). Don't forget that for more than a decade Cubans have been able to come into contact with tourists from Western Europe, Canada and Latin America, so they have a pretty good idea of what's out there.

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Arlington, Va.: With respect to the "wet foot, dry foot" policy, how does it fit in to the larger issue of immigration in the United States? Is this policy, which is so specific to Cubans, going to change?

Mark Falcoff: This is a very complex issue. When I was writing my book I spent a full day with people at the INS trying to understand it. I am afraid that I feel unqualified to address it here.

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Tucson, Ariz.: Fidel and Hugo Chavez seemed to enjoy a very close personal relationship, with Fidel considering the Venezuelan president to be a faithful disciple of the socialist project. What do we know of Raul Castro's personal relationship with Hugo Chavez?

Mark Falcoff: Good question. We know next to nothing about the relationship between Chavez and Raul Castro. One thing, though, is certain. The Cuban military and political elite do not regard Chavez as a logical successor to Fidel Castro in Latin America. They are Cuban nationalists first and foremost; they have their own thing going; they are more disciplined, organized and ideologically committed than Chavez's people; many probably look down on Chavez as a clown, which is the way he is seen in much of Latin America, even among people on the Left.

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Washington: When you think of the dreams of the Cuban Revolution (equality being a major part) how can Cubans not fall into the free trade trap that is increasing the poverty gap in other Latin American countries? The idea that any job is better than nothing has led to low pay and dangerous conditions in other countries; how can Cuba avoid this?

Mark Falcoff: Cuba already has low pay and dangerous conditions in its work place. (The average Cuban earns $20 month if employed.) There is much unemployment as well. Or disguised unemployment. You are right about the scene in other Latin American countries. And logically Cubans would not wish to go there. But where do you suppose they CAN go, given the penury, perpetual shortages, and lack of economic opportunity that exists now? That is the challenge.

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San Antonio: What is the likelihood under a potential Raul-led government that the U.S. would lift the current trade embargo with Cuba?

Mark Falcoff: I think it is more likely that we will resume relations with Cuba and lift the embargo under Raul Castro. But he will have to do a few things too ... like open the political prisons and allow the International Red Cross to visit dissidents who are under house arrest, etc. It cannot be a one-way exchange of favors.

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Monroe, Mich.: Many Cuban-Americans seem to believe that once Castro dies they will return to Cuba and take over the political system and repossess property they lost when they fled. What are your thoughts? What do Cubans think of an imminent return of some Cuban expatriates?

Mark Falcoff: I think this is extremely unlikely. Cuba is a very different country today than it was in 1958, for good or for ill. I am amazed at the persistence of this fantasy of returning to Cuba on the part of people who haven't set foot there in 45 years. They are headed for a big surprise if they do go. Younger Cuban Americans who have decided to go to the island always come back telling me "that isn't the country my grandparents have told me about." And few have any plans to return.

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Philadelphia: A few years ago the Washington Post ran a series of columns by Gene Robinson on race issues in Cuba, as the island's demographics has shifted significantly from 70 percent white in pre-Castro days to 65 percent Afro-Cuban now because of the mostly white Cuban exodus. Will a post-Castro (either brother) government face exploding race problems as the white exiles return and seek their old homes and properties?

washingtonpost.com: Cuba Begins to Answer Its Race Question (Post, Nov. 12, 2000)

Mark Falcoff: First of all, the white Cubans will not be returning, even if they think they can. I have already addressed this question previously.

Second, Eugene Robinson is right about demographics. But there is another, rather nasty detail, which is that the Castro government is disproportionately white given the color of the island. It doesn't look like Cuba. I thus predict some racial tension in the future regardless of political regime. In fact, I devote considerable space to this issue in my book (chapter on Civil Society).

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Los Angeles: How can you defend the U.S. trade embargo when it clearly has not worked over decades. Frankly sir, the fact that you do not see the embargo for the outdated, politically motivated failure that it is makes me think you are more of a politician than an analyst. Can you tell us what good the embargo has done for anybody over past decades?

Mark Falcoff: I do not think you have read my book. I do not "defend" the embargo at at all. I think in some ways it is irrelevant except politically. And please be more courteous in posing your questions.

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Baltimore: What are your realistic expectations for the pace of change, if any, when Fidel actually and finally is declared dead, if ever? Many of my British and Canadian friends who have traveled to Cuba report that they expect a cataclysmic, overnight tidal wave of capitalism to sweep over the island before the body's even cold, and some are poised to take advantage of it, intending to beat out the Americans at their own game, so to speak. This stuff with Raul certainly complicates that prediction. Your thoughts?

Mark Falcoff: If you have been following my answers to this dialogue you will see that I expect a relatively smooth transition to a Raul-led dictatorship, one possibly even endorsed and supported by some future U.S. administration.

There is another wild card in the deck, which is the desire of some potential foreign investors -- even some Cubans in Miami -- to cut a deal with Raul, or in his absence, the Communist elite, so that they can get access to cheap non-union labor, such as in China or Vietnam.

I have some anecdotal evidence, only anecdotal, so I can't use it in any scholarly publication--that some Cuban Americans are already investing in the island through third Latin American or European parties.

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Washington: In the 1990s there was a report indicating that the best way for the U.S. to pave the way to better relations with Cuba once Fidel and Raul were gone was to encourage contacts between mid-level officers in the U.S. and the Cuban military. This idea was based upon the assumption that without the backing of the Cuban military there can never be change in Cuba. Have these contacts occurred, either between Cuba and the U.S. or Cuba and any of America's allies in the region?

Mark Falcoff: This card was played and obviously went nowhere. I doubt we will pick it up again.

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Washington: What do you think will happen when all the wealthy Cuban Americans from Miami go back to Cuba and try to kick out the people who have been living there for 50-plus years?

Mark Falcoff: Let's consider demographics for a moment. People who left Cuba as, say, adults with a career already developed were probably about 25 at the time. So today they would be 75, if they aren't already dead.

The next generation left as children, and have no memory of the island at all.

Their children know Cuba only by third hand, have been born in this country, speak English at least as well if not better than Spanish, and have careers here.

The largest group of Cubans born in Cuba who live in the U.S. are the 250,000 who have entered here since the 1994 migration agreements. They live in extremely modest economic circumstances, often do not speak much English, have little or no interest in politics, are darker racially, and probably wouldn't have come here at all if the Soviet Union hadn't collapsed and stopped giving the island $6 billion a year.

For what it may be worth, by the way, the Cuban American National Foundation is publicly opposed to their members seizing residential property expropriated by the regime and kicking their occupants out into the streets.

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Bogota, Colombia: Are Spain's efforts to relax EU policies towards Cuba increasing Cuba's legitimacy in the international arena, or at least in Europe?

Mark Falcoff: I doubt Spain's efforts are succeeding in making the Castro regime more acceptable to Europe. For one thing, there has been a change of government in France, and the new foreign minister Kouchner is a long time human rights activist. The German, Czech, and Polish governments oppose the Spanish efforts on Cuba. And many observers of Spanish politics think that this Socialist government will be out of office next year.

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Washington: After the Cuban Misil Crisis, the U.S. made a policy not to invade Cuba. After power is transmitted to Raul Castro, what are the perspectives for a major U.S. presence in Cuba? Particularly in terms of business, Caribbean real estate is at an historic maximum demand as the Caribbean vacation business is too. Cuba will have miles of precious shorline that the U.S. will not be able to ignore.

Mark Falcoff: Actually Cuba is not a particularly attractive proposition, at least as it stands now. It has a terrible decaying infrastructure. And it is far from the only place with beaches and long coast lines. If you compare Cuba to, say, Mexico, you can see that the island is 50 years behind in hotels, roads, internet facilities, etc.

I have been many times to the Dominican Republic. It is at least 30 years ahead of Cuba in hotel facilities. Much better food and services. So, I don't think there is any burning imperative for U.S. business in Cuba.

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Downingtown, Pa. : What are the chances of us ever having ties to this country post the Fidel Castro era or are there no chances for this to happen? Thank you for your time.

Mark Falcoff: As long as Fidel Castro is alive we will not normalize relations with Cuba. We don't want it, and he certainly doesn't. He's sabotaged various efforts in the past by previous administrations (this I get from Cuban foreign office officials who have defected).

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Dublin: What is the basic principle that the United States adheres to when it refuses to lift the trade and travel sanctions and embargos in respect to American citizens and business? When Eastern Europe, the Soviet Union and China among others were under different political and economic systems -- some still are -- the United States still permitted travel and travel in respect of its citizens. If Cuba had large reserves of oil, would it make any difference?

Mark Falcoff: I assume if Cuba had large reserves of oil we would decide that the embargo was not a good idea. And we would praise the regime for its contribution to stability in the region, just like Saudi Arabia. So far, however, those reserves have not been found.

U.S. policy is driven by a number of things, one of them is a grudge. As an Irish citizen you should have no trouble understanding the role of such sentiments in international politics. Ireland was, after all, neutral but sympathetic to the Germans in World War II. For its own reasons, of course.

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Venice, Fla.: When we were in Cuba during December 2000, a briefing at the U.S. Interests Section estimated that up to 2 million Cubans could come to the U.S. with uncertainty about a reverse flow of Cuban exiles back to Cuba. Is the U.S. government currently planning for this potential mass migration?

Mark Falcoff: First of all, I was in Cuba in February 2001. I do not recall a briefing at the Interests Section such as you cite. Possibly such numbers were produced, although I don't know how anyone can know exactly how many Cubans would come to the U.S. (or be allowed to come).

My own view is that our policy has been based for 50 years on the idea that Fidel Castro will live forever (that is his policy for his relations with the U.S., too). Thus I doubt much thought has been given to the possibility of a mass migration in either direction. Obviously Americans of all political stripes would be opposed to such uncontrolled movements.

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Washington: How has Cuba's relationship with other countries and trading blocs such as CARICOM and the EU affected the U.S. embargo? Can Cuba continue to trade and find markets for its products and services with these partners, as well as with Latin America, one day rendering trade with the U.S. almost an afterthought? Thank you.

Mark Falcoff: The answer is yes. Cuba is able to trade with everybody except the U.S. In that sense trade with the U.S. is an afterthought. The embargo is more of an ideological matter than one of hard economics. Cuba has nothing we need or want. And they can get what they need elsewhere, often from close by.

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Munich: What drawbacks do you envision if Raul Castro were to lobby Washington for the commencement of trade with a Cuban administration that intends to conduct business using the Chinese model?

Mark Falcoff: This is a difficult question to answer. It would depend probably on the context. Obviously the Chinese model would improve the life of ordinary Cubans and probably also assure stability and continuity of the regime. As I have said elsewhere in this chat, I think we might well choose that as the best of all possible alternatives. We do not want chaos and disorder on the island, and neither does Raul.

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New York: Please explain why you believe the U.S. has any right to dictate what kind of system Cuba should choose for itself, so long as that system poses no direct threat to the U.S.?

Mark Falcoff: I have never said this so I do not feel obligated to answer your question.

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Clinton, Md.: Can you tell me what is truly the big issue regarding trade and tourism in Cuba? Is it largely because of communism? If that is the case, the U.S. deals with communist countries on a daily basis. Look at China, dictatorship, no freedom of speech or pretty much most freedoms. This thing is older than I am, it is time to get over it wouldn't you say? Help me really understand. Thanks!

Mark Falcoff: I suppose part of it has to do with historic grudges against the Castro regime (the missile crisis, which you may be too young to remember; I can recall it vividly). Part of it ideological. Part of it political (the Cuban vote in Florida nad New Jersey). And part of the idea that Latin American countries are part of the West and that it is reasonable to expect a certain degree of openness in their societies that we do not demand of, say, China or Vietnam. This may, of course, be wrong. Maybe we should be completely agnostic on the subject of Latin American political regimes. But I cannot help noticing that the same people who urge "realism" upon us with respect to Cuba found similar policies intolerable when they were applied to right-wing military dictatorships in the 1970s. And vice versa, to be sure ...

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Cabarete, Dominican Republic: Do you believe the USG-funded Cuba democracy promotion activities have been useful in preparing Cuba for a transition to democracy? In what way could they be more useful?

Mark Falcoff: I do not think they have been particularly successful or are likely to be. The only thing they have done is to discredit those who take U.S. money.

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Wheaton, MD.: What are the odds that Washington will relax or end its embargo against Cuba? Will it depend on who wins the presidency in 2008? Also, what will become of all of the previously seized Cuban property, as well as "dual trademarks" like Bacardi that are used by different companies in the U.S. and Cuba?

Mark Falcoff: The big variable is what happens to Fidel Castro. I cannot personally imagine any U.S. president normalizing relations with him, as opposed to his brother, but I may prove wrong on this score. We will see in 2009.

The property issue is too complex to deal with here except in a cursory fashion. First of all, many expropriated U.S. companies have collected insurance on their property and have no outstanding claims. Second, those who have certified U.S. claims have put themselves at the mercy of whatever deal the U.S. works out with the Cuban government. Typically these settlements run at about 10 cents on the dollar. Third, Cuban Americans cannot grandfather their properties into such a settlement. The idea that the Helms-Burton act authoritzes this are quite wrong. People need to read it again.

I am afraid as far as dual trademarks are concerned we will have to await the decisions of the courts and the WTO.

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Philadelphia: I do not expect a great deal of change coming directly from the Cuban population, unless Raul makes very serious mistakes. It seems apparent that he realizes that almost immediate economic relief is necessary. The population simply cannot take much more. Already, there is no sense of loyalty to Communism among the 18-30 year old generation, a fact easily confirmed by talking with them. That does not however, translate into a support for what the current U.S. administration calls "democracy," i.e., unbridled capitalism. People seem wary, more than cautious. Do you view there as being anything that might come from U.S. sources which could break the ice, moving us toward more reasoned discourse? Encuentro may present interesting discourse, but I am focused upon the U.S. role. Even if, as I believe, the important discussion is among and between Cubans living in Cuba, just the appearance of a U.S. government, which is not stuck in a 1950s mentality, would give a great deal of hope and energy to many.

Mark Falcoff: Cuba will find its own way, regardless of what the U.S. wants. This has always been the case, not just since 1959.

Raul Castro has already started a more reasoned discourse. His most recent speeches have been very interesting. I assume that after 2009 his brother will be gone, we will have a new adminstration, and there will be a breaking of the logjam. To be sure, this won't be democracy for the Cubans, even in the limited Latin American sense. How much prosperity it will bring remains to be seen.

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Harrisburg, Pa.: What will a post-Fidel Castro do to the Cuban American voters in Florida who influence politicians not to recognize Cuba? Does this influence disappear?

Mark Falcoff: Actually the Cuban American vote has been tending away from the Republican party for some time. We now have two senators -- one Republican, one Democrat, both of Cuban origin. After normalization of relations I assume the ethnic edge would gradually disappear, to be replaced by the usual economic and social drivers that determine party identification.

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Washington: I visited Cuba legally with a humanitarian project in June. The infrastructure (roads, power, water) leaves a lot to be desired for a country with great potential given its human capital. What are its prospects for improvement if the U.S. opens trade relations? Will all the tourist influx money just go to a rich few who will not use it for improvement?

Mark Falcoff: I am not certain that Cuba possesses much long term interest for the U.S. That is the great paradox of our policy.

Where the money from U.S. tourism will go once it is legal remains to be seen. The country has been taking in $2 billion a year (gross) for some time from Europe and Latin America, as well as Canada, and so far it has not been used for anything but to prop up the military and police.

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Mark Falcoff: I appreciate the questions. I hope I have answered them. I am going to close the dialogue now, as the hour is up.

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